Spatial and Temporal Spread of Bovine Tuberculosis in Wild White-Tailed Deer in Michigan

In 1975, a wild white-tailed deer infected with bovine tuberculosis was shot in the northeastern Lower Peninsula, Michigan. The shooting of a second infected deer in the same area in 1994 triggered ongoing disease surveillance in the region. By 2002, bovine tuberculosis had been confirmed in 12 Michigan counties: from 449 deer; two elk; 41 non-cervid wildlife; one captive cervid facility and 28 cattle herds. We analyzed geographic spread of disease since the surveillance began and investigated factors influencing the prevalence of disease within the infected area. These analyses reveal that 78 percent of tuberculous deer came from within a 1560 km2 'core' area, within which the prevalence of apparent disease averaged 2.5 percent. Prevalence declined dramatically outside of the core and was an order of magnitude lower 30 km from its boundary. This prevalence gradient was highly significant (P<0.0001) and did not alter over the 6 year surveillance period (P= 0.98). Within the core, deer density and supplemental feeding by hunters were positively and independently correlated with tuberculosis prevalence in deer. Together, these two factors explained 55 percent of the variation in prevalence. We conclude that bovine tuberculosis was already well established in the deer population in 1994, that the infected area has not expanded significantly since that time, and that deer over-abundance and food supplementation have both contributed to ongoing transmission of disease. Managers are currently enforcing prohibitions on deer feeding in the core and are working to lower deer numbers there through increased hunting pressure.

Concordância espaço-temporal e intensidade de competição em grupos de baleia jubarte: evidências de uma série temporal de 10 anos

The theory of sexual selection states that individuals more capable of attracting, selecting and competing for partners are more successful on reproduction than the less fit individuals. Competition for sexual partners can be observed in different populations of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae). These large cetaceans migrate seasonally from feeding areas, in high latitudes, to breeding areas, in low latitudes, where they spend the winter. During the breeding season females with and without calves are escorted by transient competitive groups of males. Seeking reproductive success in the same group, various males exhibit aggressive behaviors searching for proximity to the disputed female. Breeding areas are usually located in warm and shallow waters that provide greater security to newborn calves. The Abrolhos Bank, in the Bahia State, is the main breeding area of the species in Brazil. In this study, we used data collected in this region between 2003 and 2012. We tested the hypothesis that there is temporal fluctuation in the abundance of competitive groups and, thus, there is variation in the levels of competition among males during the breeding season. We expected to find higher competition at the beginning of the season since there are a large number of males competing for a small number of females available for mating, because some of them would still be pregnant with calves conceived on the previous year. As the pregnant females give birth to their calves and can again get into heat, the competition among males would be softened, represented by a smaller number of individuals in competitive groups and a larger number of groups sighted. To test this hypothesis we compared the number of individuals per group and number of groups sighted (response variables) between the beginning and the end of the reproductive season (explanatory variable) by using generalized linear models. We used the Living Planet Index (LPI),...

Temporal, diel and spatial variability of decapod larvae from St Paul`s Rocks, an equatorial oceanic island of Brazil

Temporal, spatial and diel variation in the distribution and abundance of organisms is an inherent property of ecological systems. The present study describes these variations and the composition of decapod larvae from the surface waters of St Paul`s Rocks. The expeditions to the archipelago were carried out in April, August and November 2003, March 2004 and May 2005. Surface plankton samples were collected during the morning and dusk periods, inside the inlet and in increasing distances around the archipelago (similar to 150, 700 and 1500 m). The identification resulted in 51 taxa. Seven species, six genera and larvae of the families Pandalidae and Portunidae were identified for the first time in the area. The mean larval density varied from zero to 150.2 +/- 69.6 individuals 100 m(-3) in the waters surrounding the archipelago and from 1.7 +/- 3.0 to 12,827 +/- 15,073 individuals 100 m(-3) inside the inlet. Significant differences on larval density were verified between months and period of the day, but not among the three sites around the archipelago. Cluster and non-metric multidimensional scaling analysis indicated that the decapod larvae community was divided into benthic and pelagic assemblages. Indicator species analysis (ISA) showed that six Brachyura taxa were good indicators for the inlet, while three sergestids were the main species from the waters around the archipelago. These results suggest that St Paul`s Rocks can be divided into two habitats, based on larval composition, density and diversity values: the inlet and the waters surrounding the archipelago.

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF FISH IN PALMAS BAY, UBATUBA, BRAZIL

The aim of this study was to analyze the distribution and abundance of the fish fauna of Palmas bay on Anchieta Island in southeastern Brazil. Specimens were caught in the summer and winter of 1992, using an otter trawl at three locations in the bay. The specimens were caught in both the nighttime and daytime. Data on the water temperature and salinity were recorded for the characterization of the predominant water mass in the region, and sediment samples were taken for granulometric analysis. A total of 7 656 specimens (79 species), with a total weight of approximately 300 kg, were recorded. The most abundant species were Eucinostomus argenteus, Ctenosciaena gracilicirrhus, Haemulon steindachneri, Eucinostomus gula and Diapterus rhombeus, which together accounted for more than 73% of the sample. In general, the ecological indices showed no differences in the composition of species for the abiotic variables analyzed. The multivariate analysis showed that the variations in the distribution of the fish fauna were mainly associated with intra-annual differences in temperature and salinity, resulting from the presence of South Atlantic Central Water (SACW) in the area during the summer. The analysis also showed an association with the type of bottom and a lesser association with respect to the night/day periods.

Disentangling social networks from spatiotemporal dynamics: the temporal structure of a dolphin society

Social networks are static illustrations of dynamic societies, within which social interactions are constantly changing. Fundamental sources of variation include ranging behaviour and temporal demographic changes. Spatiotemporal dynamics can favour or limit opportunities for individuals to interact, and then a network may not essentially represent social processes. We examined whether a social network can embed such nonsocial effects in its topology, whereby emerging modules depict spatially or temporally segregated individuals. To this end, we applied a combination of spatial, temporal and demographic analyses to a long-term study of the association patterns of Guiana dolphins, Sotalia guianensis. We found that association patterns are organized into a modular social network. Space use was unlikely to reflect these modules, since dolphins' ranging behaviour clearly overlapped. However, a temporal demographic turnover, caused by the exit/entrance of individuals (most likely emigration/immigration), defined three modules of associations occurring at different times. Although this factor could mask real social processes, we identified the temporal scale that allowed us to account for these demographic effects. By looking within this turnover period (32 months), we assessed fission-fusion dynamics of the poorly known social organization of Guiana dolphins. We highlight that spatiotemporal dynamics can strongly influence the structure of social networks. Our findings show that hypothetical social units can emerge due to the temporal opportunities for individuals to interact. Therefore, a thorough search for a satisfactory spatiotemporal scale that removes such nonsocial noise is critical when analysing a social system. (C) 2012 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Composition and Seasonal Variation of Brachyura and Anomura (Crustacea, Decapoda) Associated with Brown Mussel Farms at Praia da Cocanha, Brazil

The composition and seasonal variation of brachyuran and anomuran species associated with mussel farms were evaluated at Praia da Cocanha, Sao Paulo between May 2007 and February 2008. Nine mussel ropes were sampled at random in each quarter, and 1,208 organisms were identified, comprising five families and 28 species. The most numerous species was the porcellanid Pachycheles laevidactylus (18.5%), followed by the xanthids Acantholobulus schmitti (16.6%), Hexapanopeus paulensis (11.3%), Panopeus americanus (10.2%), and Menippe nodifrons (8.4%). The exotic crab Charybdis hellerii was recorded throughout the study period. The ecological descriptors, except Pielou evenness index, varied significantly over the time. The highest abundance and diversity of the species were recorded during November and February. This pattern was reversed for Berger-Parker dominance, with the lowest values recorded in February. The development of epifauna was correlated with the different stages of the mussel farms, since the mean size of mussels and consequently the abundance of epibiotic organisms and the structural complexity on the mussel ropes increased from May (seeding) until February (harvest). Despite this, the temporal population variations in recruitment patterns of the different epibionts should not be overlooked. The results indicated that the mussel farms provided favorable conditions for the development of these crustacean groups, which could be used in environmental monitoring programs and / or be exploited for the aquarium trade.

Variation morphogeometrics of Africanized honey bees (Apis mellifera) in Brazil

The morphometrics of the honey bee Apis mellifera L., 1758 has been widely studied mainly because this species has great ecological importance, high adaptation capacity, wide distribution and capacity to effectively adapt to different regions. The current study aimed to investigate the morphometric variations of wings and pollen baskets of honey bees Apis mellifera scutellata Lepeletier, 1836 from the five regions in Brazil. We used geometric morphometrics to identify the existence of patterns of variations of shape and size in Africanized honey bees in Brazil 16 years after the classic study with this species, allowing a temporal and spatial comparative analysis using new technological resources to assess morphometrical data. Samples were collected in 14 locations in Brazil, covering the five geographical regions of the country. The shape analysis and multivariate analyses of the wing allowed to observe that there is a geographical pattern among the population of Apis mellifera in Brazil. The geographical variations may be attributed to the large territorial extension of the country in addition to the differences between the bioregions.

Composition and seasonal variation of brachyura and anomura (Crustacea, Decapoda) associated with brown mussel farms at Praia da Cocanha, Brazil

The composition and seasonal variation of brachyuran and anomuran species associated with mussel farms were evaluated at Praia da Cocanha, São Paulo between May 2007 and February 2008. Nine mussel ropes were sampled at random in each quarter, and 1,208 organisms were identified, comprising five families and 28 species. The most numerous species was the porcellanid Pachycheles laevidactylus (18.5%), followed by the xanthids Acantholobulus schmitti (16.6%), Hexapanopeus paulensis (11.3%), Panopeus americanus (10.2%), and Menippe nodifrons (8.4%). The exotic crab Charybdis hellerii was recorded throughout the study period. The ecological descriptors, except Pielou evenness index, varied significantly over the time. The highest abundance and diversity of the species were recorded during November and February. This pattern was reversed for Berger-Parker dominance, with the lowest values recorded in February. The development of epifauna was correlated with the different stages of the mussel farms, since the mean size of mussels and consequently the abundance of epibiotic organisms and the structural complexity on the mussel ropes increased from May (seeding) until February (harvest). Despite this, the temporal population variations in recruitment patterns of the different epibionts should not be overlooked. The results indicated that the mussel farms provided favorable conditions for the development of these crustacean groups, which could be used in environmental monitoring programs and / or be exploited for the aquarium trade.

Temporal changes of CB1 cannabinoid receptor in the basal ganglia as a possible structure-specific plasticity process in 6-OHDA lesioned rats

The endocannabinoid system has been implicated in several neurobiological processes, including neurodegeneration, neuroprotection and neuronal plasticity. The CB1 cannabinoid receptors are abundantly expressed in the basal ganglia, the circuitry that is mostly affected in Parkinson’s Disease (PD). Some studies show variation of CB1 expression in basal ganglia in different animal models of PD, however the results are quite controversial, due to the differences in the procedures employed to induce the parkinsonism and the periods analyzed after the lesion. The present study evaluated the CB1 expression in four basal ganglia structures, namely striatum, external globus pallidus (EGP), internal globus pallidus (IGP) and substantia nigra pars reticulata (SNpr) of rats 1, 5, 10, 20, and 60 days after unilateral intrastriatal 6-hydroxydopamine injections, that causes retrograde dopaminergic degeneration. We also investigated tyrosine hydroxylase (TH), parvalbumin, calbindin and glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD) expression to verify the status of dopaminergic and GABAergic systems. We observed a structure-specific modulation of CB1 expression at different periods after lesions. In general, there were no changes in the striatum, decreased CB1 in IGP and SNpr and increased CB1 in EGP, but this increase was not sustained over time. No changes in GAD and parvalbumin expression were observed in basal ganglia, whereas TH levels were decreased and the calbindin increased in striatum in short periods after lesion. We believe that the structure-specific variation of CB1 in basal ganglia in the 6-hydroxydopamine PD model could be related to a compensatory process involving the GABAergic transmission, which is impaired due to the lack of dopamine. Our data, therefore, suggest that the changes of CB1 and calbindin expression may represent a plasticity process in this PD model

Temporal evolution of emerging contaminants, priority substances and heavy metals most frequently detected in reclaimed water and grounwater in a volcanic aquifer

[EN] The presence of emerging contaminants has been previously described in reclaimed water and groundwater of Gran Canaria (Spain). Despite of the environmental risk associated to irrigation with reclaimed water (R), this practice is necessary considering sustainability of the hydrological cycle in semiarid zones, especially regarding agricultural activity. The aim of this study was: i) to analyse the evolution during two years of contaminants of emerging concern, priority substances (2008/105/EC) and heavy metals in reclaimed water (R) and in a volcanic aquifer in the NE of Gran Canaria where a golf course has been irrigated with R since 1976 and ii) to relate this presence with physicochemical water properties and hydrogeological media. Reclaimed water and groundwater (GW) were monitoring quarterly from July 2009 to September 2011. Sorption and degradation processes in soil account for more compounds being detected in R. Diazinon and chlorfenvinphos were detected always in R and terbuthylazine, terbutryn and diuron at 90% of frequency. Considering all the samples, the most frequent compounds were chlorpyrifos ethyl, fluorene, phenanthrene and pyrene. Although their concentrations were frequently below 50 ngL-1, some contaminants, were occasionally detected at higher concentrations. Chlorpyrifos ethyl and diuron are priority substances detected frequently and at high concentrations so they must be included in monitoring studies. Geology and location seem to be related to the emerging compounds presence due to occasional contamination events (not related to R irrigation) and therefore not to an existence of a dangerous diffuse contamination level. Thus, it is preferable to select wells with less stable chemical water quality, in order to monitor the risk of emerging compounds presence. Considering the relationship between contaminant presence, chemical water quality, seasonal variation, hydrogeological characteristics and wells location we can conclude that chlorpyrifos ethyl and diuron were the most dangerous priority substances in terms of GW quality so they must be included in all of the monitoring studies, at least in Canary Islands.

Spatial and temporal variability and ecological processes in the epibenthic assemblages of the northern Adriatic Sea

Several coralligenous reefs occur in the soft bottoms of the northern Adriatic continental shelf. Mediterranean coralligenous habitats are characterised by high species diversity and are intrinsically valuable for their biological diversity and for the ecological processes they support. The conservation and management of these habitats require quantifying spatial and temporal variability of their benthic assemblages. This PhD thesis aims to give a relevant contribution to the knowledge of the structure and dynamics of the epibenthic assemblages on the coralligenous subtidal reefs occurring in the northern Adriatic Sea. The epibenthic assemblages showed a spatial variation larger compared to temporal changes, with a temporal persistence of reef-forming organisms. Assemblages spatial heterogeneity has been related to morphological features and geographical location of the reefs, together with variation in the hydrological conditions. Manipulative experiments help to understand the ecological processes structuring the benthic assemblages and maintaining their diversity. In this regards a short and long term experiment on colonization patterns of artificial substrata over a 3-year period has been performed in three reefs, corresponding to the three main types of assemblages detected in the previous study. The first colonisers, largely depending by the different larval supply, played a key role in determining the heterogeneity of the assemblages in the early stage of colonisation. Lateral invasion, from the surrounding assemblages, was the driver in structuring the mature assemblages. These complex colonisation dynamics explained the high heterogeneity of the assemblages dwelling on the northern Adriatic biogenic reefs. The buildup of these coralligenous reefs mainly depends by the bioconstruction-erosion processes that has been analysed through a field experiment. Bioconstruction, largely due to serpulid polychaetes, prevailed on erosion processes and occurred at similar rates in all sites. Similarly, the total energy contents in the benthic communities do not differ among sites, despite being provided by different species. Therefore, we can hypothesise that both bioconstruction processes and energetic storage may be limited by the availability of resources. Finally the major contribution of the zoobenthos compared to the phytobenthos to the total energetic content of assemblages suggests that the energy flow in these benthic habitats is primarily supported by planktonic food web trough the filter feeding invertebrates.

Variation of stable silicon isotopes: Analytical developments and applications in Precambrian geochemistry

Die vorliegende Dissertation behandelt die Gesamtgesteinsanalyse stabiler Siliziumisotope mit Hilfe einer „Multi Collector-ICP-MS“. Die Analysen fanden in Kooperation mit dem „Royal Museum for Central Africa“ in Belgien statt. Einer der Schwerpunkte des ersten Kapitels ist die erstmalige Analyse des δ30Si –Wertes an einem konventionellen Nu PlasmaTM „Multi-Collector ICP-MS“ Instrument, durch die Eliminierung der den 30Si “peak” überlagernden 14N16O Interferenz. Die Analyse von δ30Si wurde durch technische Modifikationen der Anlage erreicht, welche eine höherer Massenauflösung ermöglichten. Die sorgsame Charakterisierung eines adäquaten Referenzmaterials ist unabdingbar für die Abschätzung der Genauigkeit einer Messung. Die Bestimmung der „U.S. Geological Survey“ Referenzmaterialien bildet den zweiten Schwerpunkt dieses Kapitales. Die Analyse zweier hawaiianischer Standards (BHVO-1 and BHVO-2), belegt die präzise und genaue δ30Si Bestimmung und bietet Vergleichsdaten als Qualitätskontrolle für andere Labore. Das zweite Kapitel befasst sich mit kombinierter Silizium-/Sauerstoffisotope zur Untersuchung der Entstehung der Silizifizierung vulkanischer Gesteine des „Barberton Greenstone Belt“, Südafrika. Im Gegensatz zu heute, war die Silizifizierung der Oberflächennahen Schichten, einschließlich der „Chert“ Bildung, weitverbreitete Prozesse am präkambrischen Ozeanboden. Diese Horizonte sind Zeugen einer extremen Siliziummobilisierung in der Frühzeit der Erde. Dieses Kapitel behandelt die Analyse von Silizium- und Sauerstoffisotopen an drei unterschiedlichen Gesteinsprofilen mit unterschiedlich stark silizifizierten Basalten und überlagernden geschichteten „Cherts“ der 3.54, 3.45 und 3.33 Mill. Jr. alten Theespruit, Kromberg und Hooggenoeg Formationen. Siliziumisotope, Sauerstoffisotope und die SiO2-Gehalte demonstrieren in allen drei Gesteinsprofilen eine positive Korrelation mit dem Silizifizierungsgrad, jedoch mit unterschiedlichen Steigungen der δ30Si-δ18O-Verhältnisse. Meerwasser wird als Quelle des Siliziums für den Silizifizierungsprozess betrachtet. Berechnungen haben gezeigt, dass eine klassische Wasser-Gestein Wechselwirkung die Siliziumisotopenvariation nicht beeinflussen kann, da die Konzentration von Si im Meerwasser zu gering ist (49 ppm). Die Daten stimmen mit einer Zwei-Endglieder-Komponentenmischung überein, mit Basalt und „Chert“ als jeweilige Endglieder. Unsere gegenwärtigen Daten an den „Cherts“ bestätigen einen Anstieg der Isotopenzusammensetzung über der Zeit. Mögliche Faktoren, die für unterschiedliche Steigungen der δ30Si-δ18O Verhältnisse verantwortlich sein könnten sind Veränderungen in der Meerwasserisotopie, der Wassertemperatur oder sekundäre Alterationseffekte. Das letzte Kapitel beinhaltet potentielle Variationen in der Quellregion archaischer Granitoide: die Si-Isotopen Perspektive. Natriumhaltige Tonalit-Trondhjemit-Granodiorit (TTG) Intrusiva repräsentieren große Anteile der archaischen Kruste. Im Gegensatz dazu ist die heutige Kruste kaliumhaltiger (GMS-Gruppe: Granit-Monzonite-Syenite). Prozesse, die zu dem Wechsel von natriumhaltiger zu kaliumhaltiger Kruste führten sind die Thematik diesen Kapitels. Siliziumisotopenmessungen wurden hier kombiniert mit Haupt- und Spurenelementanalysen an unterschiedlichen Generationen der 3.55 bis 3.10 Mill. Yr. alten TTG und GMS Intrusiva aus dem Arbeitsgebiet. Die δ30Si-Werte in den unterschiedlichen Plutonit Generationen zeigen einen leichten Anstieg der Isotopie mit der Zeit, wobei natriumhaltige Intrusiva die niedrigste Si-Isotopenzusammensetzung aufweisen. Der leichte Anstieg in der Siliziumisotopenzusammensetzung über die Zeit könnte auf unterschiedliche Temperaturbedingungen in der Quellregion der Granitoide hinweisen. Die Entstehung von Na-reichen, leichten d30Si Granitoiden würde demnach bei höheren Temperaturen erfolgen. Die Ähnlichkeit der δ30Si-Werte in archaischen K-reichen Plutoniten und phanerozoischen K-reichen Plutoniten wird ebenfalls deutlich.

Temperature Variation Aware Energy Optimization in Heterogeneous MPSoCs

Thermal effects are rapidly gaining importance in nanometer heterogeneous integrated systems. Increased power density, coupled with spatio-temporal variability of chip workload, cause lateral and vertical temperature non-uniformities (variations) in the chip structure. The assumption of an uniform temperature for a large circuit leads to inaccurate determination of key design parameters. To improve design quality, we need precise estimation of temperature at detailed spatial resolution which is very computationally intensive. Consequently, thermal analysis of the designs needs to be done at multiple levels of granularity. To further investigate the flow of chip/package thermal analysis we exploit the Intel Single Chip Cloud Computer (SCC) and propose a methodology for calibration of SCC on-die temperature sensors. We also develop an infrastructure for online monitoring of SCC temperature sensor readings and SCC power consumption. Having the thermal simulation tool in hand, we propose MiMAPT, an approach for analyzing delay, power and temperature in digital integrated circuits. MiMAPT integrates seamlessly into industrial Front-end and Back-end chip design flows. It accounts for temperature non-uniformities and self-heating while performing analysis. Furthermore, we extend the temperature variation aware analysis of designs to 3D MPSoCs with Wide-I/O DRAM. We improve the DRAM refresh power by considering the lateral and vertical temperature variations in the 3D structure and adapting the per-DRAM-bank refresh period accordingly. We develop an advanced virtual platform which models the performance, power, and thermal behavior of a 3D-integrated MPSoC with Wide-I/O DRAMs in detail. Moving towards real-world multi-core heterogeneous SoC designs, a reconfigurable heterogeneous platform (ZYNQ) is exploited to further study the performance and energy efficiency of various CPU-accelerator data sharing methods in heterogeneous hardware architectures. A complete hardware accelerator featuring clusters of OpenRISC CPUs, with dynamic address remapping capability is built and verified on a real hardware.

Spatial and temporal flower presentation in Apiaceae-Apioideae

Alle Doldengewächse (Apiaceae), darunter die größte, weltweit verbreitete Unterfamilie der Apioideen, weisen in ihren Blütenständen sehr einheitliche Merkmale auf. Die ‚Doppeldolden´ werden aus kleinen, weißen oder gelben Blüten gebildet und von vielen unspezialisierten Insekten besucht. Der uniforme Eindruck, der damit erweckt wird, ist unter Umständen ein Grund, dass die zugrundeliegende Morphologie bislang wenig untersucht wurde. Gegenstand der vorliegenden Dissertation ist es daher, die ‚verborgene Diversität´ im Blütenstandsbereich der Apiaceae -Apioideen mit dem Ziel darzustellen, den Einfluss der Architektur der Pflanzen auf die Art der Blütenpräsentation in Raum und Zeit und damit auf das Reproduktionssystem der Art zu ermitteln. Im ersten Kapitel zeigt der Vergleich von neun ausgewählten Arten, dass in den selbstfertilen und unspezifisch bestäubten Pflanzen durch Synchronisation und Rhythmik in der Präsentation von Blüten Fremdbefruchtung gefördert wird. Entweder durchlaufen die Pflanzen dabei nur eine getrennte männliche und weibliche Blühphase (Xanthoselinum alsaticum) oder der moduläre Bau der Pflanzen führt zu einer Folge männlicher und weiblicher Blühphasen (multizyklische Dichogamie). Die Diözie in Trinia glauca kann in diesem Zusammenhang als eine Trennung der Blühphasen auf verschiedengeschlechtliche Individuen gesehen werden. Für die andromonözischen Arten wird gezeigt, dass der Anteil funktional männlicher Blüten mit steigender Doldenordnung nicht einheitlich zu- oder abnimmt. Dadurch fungieren die Pflanzen zu verschiedenen Zeiten und mit unterschiedlicher Stärke eher als Pollenrezeptoren oder Pollendonatoren. Es wird deutlich, dass das ‚uniforme Muster‘ der Apioideen mit Dolden verschiedener Ordnungen, dichogamen Blüten und deren diversen Geschlechtsausbildungen ein komplexes Raum-Zeit-Gefüge zur Optimierung des Reproduktionssystems darstellt. Das zweite Kapitel stellt die Ergebnisse von Manipulationsexperimenten (Handbestäubung, Bestäuberabschirmung, Entfernen von Dolden niedriger Ordnung) an Chaerophyllum bulbosum dar, die zeigen, dass das Raum-Zeit-Gefüge in der Präsentation der Blüten der Art erlaubt, flexibel auf Umwelteinflüsse zu reagieren. Es stellt sich heraus, dass mechanische Beschädigungen kaum Einfluss auf den Andromonöziegrad und prozentualen Fruchtansatz der Individuen nehmen. Grundvoraussetzung der Reaktionsfähigkeit ist wiederum deren modulärer Bau. Dieser erlaubt es den Pflanzen, zusammen mit dem andromonöziebedingten Reservoir an - geschlechtlich flexiblen - männlichen Blüten, in den später angelegten Dolden fehlenden Fruchtansatz der Blüten früh blühender Dolden zu kompensieren. Im dritten Kapitel wird eine vergleichende Merkmalsanalyse an 255 Apioideen-Arten vorgelegt, die alle Verwandtschaftskreise, Wuchsformen und Verbreitungsgebiete der Gruppe repräsentieren. Ziel der Analyse war die Identifizierung von Merkmalssyndromen, die den Zusammenhang zwischen Architektur und Reproduktionssystem verdeutlichen sollten. Interessanterweise sind die einzigen Merkmale, die miteinander einhergehen, Protogynie und die graduelle Abnahme männlicher Blüten mit steigender Doldenordnung. Alle anderen Merkmale variieren unabhängig voneinander und erzeugen auf vielen verschiedenen Wegen immer wieder das gleiche Funktionsmuster, das als ‚breeding syndrome‘ der Apioideae gedeutet werden kann. Die Arbeit leistet einen wichtigen Beitrag zum Verständnis der Blütenstände der Apiaceen und darüber hinaus zu morphologischer Variation in ‚unspezialisierten‘ Reproduktionssystemen. Offensichtlich liegt in den Apioideen der Selektionsdruck auf der Aufrechterhaltung der generalisistischen Bestäubung und überprägt alle morphologisch-phylogenetischen Merkmalsvarianten.

Point Process Methodology for On-line Spatio-temporal Disease Surveillance

The AEGISS (Ascertainment and Enhancement of Gastrointestinal Infection Surveillance and Statistics) project aims to use spatio-temporal statistical methods to identify anomalies in the space-time distribution of non-specific, gastrointestinal infections in the UK, using the Southampton area in southern England as a test-case. In this paper, we use the AEGISS project to illustrate how spatio-temporal point process methodology can be used in the development of a rapid-response, spatial surveillance system. Current surveillance of gastroenteric disease in the UK relies on general practitioners reporting cases of suspected food-poisoning through a statutory notification scheme, voluntary laboratory reports of the isolation of gastrointestinal pathogens and standard reports of general outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease by public health and environmental health authorities. However, most statutory notifications are made only after a laboratory reports the isolation of a gastrointestinal pathogen. As a result, detection is delayed and the ability to react to an emerging outbreak is reduced. For more detailed discussion, see Diggle et al. (2003). A new and potentially valuable source of data on the incidence of non-specific gastro-enteric infections in the UK is NHS Direct, a 24-hour phone-in clinical advice service. NHS Direct data are less likely than reports by general practitioners to suffer from spatially and temporally localized inconsistencies in reporting rates. Also, reporting delays by patients are likely to be reduced, as no appointments are needed. Against this, NHS Direct data sacrifice specificity. Each call to NHS Direct is classified only according to the general pattern of reported symptoms (Cooper et al, 2003). The current paper focuses on the use of spatio-temporal statistical analysis for early detection of unexplained variation in the spatio-temporal incidence of non-specific gastroenteric symptoms, as reported to NHS Direct. Section 2 describes our statistical formulation of this problem, the nature of the available data and our approach to predictive inference. Section 3 describes the stochastic model. Section 4 gives the results of fitting the model to NHS Direct data. Section 5 shows how the model is used for spatio-temporal prediction. The paper concludes with a short discussion.