The evolution of the Global Burden of Disease framework for disease, injury and risk factor quantification: Developing the evidence base for national, regional and global public health action

Reliable, comparable information about the main causes of disease and injury in populations, and how these are changing, is a critical input for debates about priorities in the health sector. Traditional sources of information about the descriptive epidemiology of diseases, injuries and risk factors are generally incomplete, fragmented and of uncertain reliability and comparability. Lack of a standardized measurement framework to permit comparisons across diseases and injuries, as well as risk factors, and failure to systematically evaluate data quality have impeded comparative analyses of the true public health importance of various conditions and risk factors. As a consequence the impact of major conditions and hazards on population health has been poorly appreciated, often leading to a lack of public health investment. Global disease and risk factor quantification improved dramatically in the early 1990s with the completion of the first Global Burden of Disease Study. For the first time, the comparative importance of over 100 diseases and injuries, and ten major risk factors, for global and regional health status could be assessed using a common metric (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) which simultaneously accounted for both premature mortality and the prevalence, duration and severity of the non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. As a consequence, mental health conditions and injuries, for which non-fatal outcomes are of particular significance, were identified as being among the leading causes of disease/injury burden worldwide, with clear implications for policy, particularly prevention. A major achievement of the Study was the complete global descriptive epidemiology, including incidence, prevalence and mortality, by age, sex and Region, of over 100 diseases and injuries. National applications, further methodological research and an increase in data availability have led to improved national, regional and global estimates for 2000, but substantial uncertainty around the disease burden caused by major conditions, including, HIV, remains. The rapid implementation of cost-effective data collection systems in developing countries is a key priority if global public policy to promote health is to be more effectively informed.

Network topology and the evolution of dynamics in an artificial genetic regulatory network model created by whole genome duplication and divergence

Topological measures of large-scale complex networks are applied to a specific artificial regulatory network model created through a whole genome duplication and divergence mechanism. This class of networks share topological features with natural transcriptional regulatory networks. Specifically, these networks display scale-free and small-world topology and possess subgraph distributions similar to those of natural networks. Thus, the topologies inherent in natural networks may be in part due to their method of creation rather than being exclusively shaped by subsequent evolution under selection. The evolvability of the dynamics of these networks is also examined by evolving networks in simulation to obtain three simple types of output dynamics. The networks obtained from this process show a wide variety of topologies and numbers of genes indicating that it is relatively easy to evolve these classes of dynamics in this model. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thermal evolution of the ore-hosting Isa Superbasin: Central and Northern Lawn Hill Platform

Hydrocarbon migration pathways and organic mineral matter associations were used to identify brine pathways in Paleoproterozic to early Mesoproterozoic rocks from the Lawn Hill platform, Mount Isa. Several types of organic matter are identified, and their thermal imprints are used to reconstruct the thermal history of the northern to central parts of the Isa superbasin. Three major thermal hydrothermal episodes are recognized from the organic maturation studies. Isotherm plots on a 175-km-long structural-sedimentological north-south section of the Isa superbasin highlight specific fault systems that acted as hot fluid conduits during the geologic history of the basin. Some of these systems indicate continuing activity into the south Nicholson basin, supported by the presence of low reflectance (type B) bitumen. This bitumen has not been overprinted by later hydrothermal episodes and therefore represents the latest thermal event. Along the north-south profile a general southward increase in temperature is evident. The lowest temperatures are recorded in proximity to the basin margin on the southern flank of the Murphy inlier. Thermal processes and their sequence of events in the basin are recorded by organic maturation, subsequent hydrocarbon generation, its migration and destruction coincident with transport and precipitation of minerals. As some timing and trapping mechanisms for minerals may have analogues with hydrocarbon entrapment, relative timing of processes leading to organic maturation, hydrocarbon generation and migration are utilized in this study to enhance understanding of ore-grade mineralization. In the Proterozoic successions of the Mount Isa basin multiple hydrocarbon generation events are recognized. These events record the transient passage of potential metal-bearing fluids rather than background conductive heat flow from the basement. Such hydrothermal fluids are responsible for inverse maturation profiles in the vicinity of the Termite Range fault and extreme maturation (reflectance values) up to 6 percent Ro at the Grevillea prospect. At Century, intermediate Ro values of

Measuring globalisation: An evolutionary economic approach to tracking the evolution of international trade

Operationalising and measuring the concept of globalisation is important, as the extent to which the international economy is integrated has a direct impact on industrial dynamics, national trade policies and firm strategies. Using complex systems network analysis with longitudinal trade data from 1938 to 2003, this paper presents a new way to measure globalisation. It demonstrates that some important aspects of the international trade network have been remarkably stable over this period. However, several network measures have changed substantially over the same time frame. Taken together, these analyses provide a novel measure of globalisation.

Quantum Information Processing with spin systems: from modeling to possible implementations

The physical implementation of quantum information processing is one of the major challenges of current research. In the last few years, several theoretical proposals and experimental demonstrations on a small number of qubits have been carried out, but a quantum computing architecture that is straightforwardly scalable, universal, and realizable with state-of-the-art technology is still lacking. In particular, a major ultimate objective is the construction of quantum simulators, yielding massively increased computational power in simulating quantum systems. Here we investigate promising routes towards the actual realization of a quantum computer, based on spin systems. The first one employs molecular nanomagnets with a doublet ground state to encode each qubit and exploits the wide chemical tunability of these systems to obtain the proper topology of inter-qubit interactions. Indeed, recent advances in coordination chemistry allow us to arrange these qubits in chains, with tailored interactions mediated by magnetic linkers. These act as switches of the effective qubit-qubit coupling, thus enabling the implementation of one- and two-qubit gates. Molecular qubits can be controlled either by uniform magnetic pulses, either by local electric fields. We introduce here two different schemes for quantum information processing with either global or local control of the inter-qubit interaction and demonstrate the high performance of these platforms by simulating the system time evolution with state-of-the-art parameters. The second architecture we propose is based on a hybrid spin-photon qubit encoding, which exploits the best characteristic of photons, whose mobility is exploited to efficiently establish long-range entanglement, and spin systems, which ensure long coherence times. The setup consists of spin ensembles coherently coupled to single photons within superconducting coplanar waveguide resonators. The tunability of the resonators frequency is exploited as the only manipulation tool to implement a universal set of quantum gates, by bringing the photons into/out of resonance with the spin transition. The time evolution of the system subject to the pulse sequence used to implement complex quantum algorithms has been simulated by numerically integrating the master equation for the system density matrix, thus including the harmful effects of decoherence. Finally a scheme to overcome the leakage of information due to inhomogeneous broadening of the spin ensemble is pointed out. Both the proposed setups are based on state-of-the-art technological achievements. By extensive numerical experiments we show that their performance is remarkably good, even for the implementation of long sequences of gates used to simulate interesting physical models. Therefore, the here examined systems are really promising buildingblocks of future scalable architectures and can be used for proof-of-principle experiments of quantum information processing and quantum simulation.

Transition from time-continuous systems to discrete mappings

Detailed transport studies in plasmas require the solution of the time evolution of many different initial positions of test particles in the phase space of the systems to be investigated. To reduce this amount of numerical work, one would like to replace the integration of the time-continues system with a mapping.

Biology of sensory systems

Since publication of the first edition, huge developments have taken place in sensory biology research and new insights have been provided in particular by molecular biology. These show the similarities in the molecular architecture and in the physiology of sensory cells across species and across sensory modality and often indicate a common ancestry dating back over half a billion years. Biology of Sensory Systems has thus been completely revised and takes a molecular, evolutionary and comparative approach, providing an overview of sensory systems in vertebrates, invertebrates and prokaryotes, with a strong focus on human senses. Written by a renowned author with extensive teaching experience, the book covers, in six parts, the general features of sensory systems, the mechanosenses, the chemosenses, the senses which detect electromagnetic radiation, other sensory systems including pain, thermosensitivity and some of the minority senses and, finally, provides an outline and discussion of philosophical implications. New in this edition: - Greater emphasis on molecular biology and intracellular mechanisms - New chapter on genomics and sensory systems - Sections on TRP channels, synaptic transmission, evolution of nervous systems, arachnid mechanosensitive sensilla and photoreceptors, electroreception in the Monotremata, language and the FOXP2 gene, mirror neurons and the molecular biology of pain - Updated passages on human olfaction and gustation. Over four hundred illustrations, boxes containing supplementary material and self-assessment questions and a full bibliography at the end of each part make Biology of Sensory Systems essential reading for undergraduate students of biology, zoology, animal physiology, neuroscience, anatomy and physiological psychology. The book is also suitable for postgraduate students in more specialised courses such as vision sciences, optometry, neurophysiology, neuropathology, developmental biology.

Numerically optimized implementations, mitigation and simulations of polarisation mode dispersion in real-time transmission systems

The aim of this thesis is to present numerical investigations of the polarisation mode dispersion (PMD) effect. Outstanding issues on the side of the numerical implementations of PMD are resolved and the proposed methods are further optimized for computational efficiency and physical accuracy. Methods for the mitigation of the PMD effect are taken into account and simulations of transmission system with added PMD are presented. The basic outline of the work focusing on PMD can be divided as follows. At first the widely-used coarse-step method for simulating the PMD phenomenon as well as a method derived from the Manakov-PMD equation are implemented and investigated separately through the distribution of a state of polarisation on the Poincaré sphere, and the evolution of the dispersion of a signal. Next these two methods are statistically examined and compared to well-known analytical models of the probability distribution function (PDF) and the autocorrelation function (ACF) of the PMD phenomenon. Important optimisations are achieved, for each of the aforementioned implementations in the computational level. In addition the ACF of the coarse-step method is considered separately, based on the result which indicates that the numerically produced ACF, exaggerates the value of the correlation between different frequencies. Moreover the mitigation of the PMD phenomenon is considered, in the form of numerically implementing Low-PMD spun fibres. Finally, all the above are combined in simulations that demonstrate the impact of the PMD on the quality factor (Q=factor) of different transmission systems. For this a numerical solver based on the coupled nonlinear Schrödinger equation is created which is otherwise tested against the most important transmission impairments in the early chapters of this thesis.

Ultra-long haul optical fibre transmission systems

This thesis examines experimentally options for optical fibre transmission over oceanic distances. Its format follows the chronological evolution of ultra-long haul optical systems, commencing with opto-electronic regenerators as repeaters, progressing to optically amplified NRZ systems and finally solitonic propagation. In each case recirculating loop techniques are deployed to simplify the transmission experiments. Advances in high speed electronics have allowed regenerators operating at 10 Gbit/s to become a practical reality. By augmenting such devices with optical amplifiers it is possible to greatly enhance the repeater spacing. Work detailed in this thesis has culminated in the propagation of 10 Gbit/s data over 400,000 km with a repeater spacing of 160 km. System reliability and robustness are enhanced by the use of a directly modulated DFB laser transmitter and total insensitivity of the system to the signal state of polarisation. Optically amplified ultra-long haul NRZ systems have taken on particular importance with the impending deployment of TAT 12/13 and TPC 5. The performance of these systems is demonstrated to be primarily limited by analogue impairments such as the accumulation of amplifier noise, polarisation effects and optical non-linearities. These degradations may be reduced by the use of appropriate dispersion maps and by scrambling the transmitted state of signal polarisation. A novel high speed optically passive polarisation scrambler is detailed for the first time. At bit rates in excess of 10 Gbit/s it is shown that these systems are severely limited and do not offer the advantages that might be expected over regenerated links. Propagation using solitons as the data bits appears particularly attractive since the dispersive and non-linear effects of the fibre allow distortion free transmission. However, the generation of pure solitons is difficult but must be achieved if the uncontrolled transmission distance is to be maximised. This thesis presents a new technique for the stabilisation of an erbium fibre ring laser that has aUowed propagation of 2.5 Gbit/s solitons to the theoretical limit of ~ 18,000 km. At higher bit rates temporal jitter becomes a significant impairment and to aUow an increase in the aggregate line rate multiplexing in both time and polarisation domains has been proposed. These techniques are shown to be of only limited benefit in practical systems and ultimately some form of soliton transmission control is required. The thesis demonstrates synchronous retiming by amplitude modulation that has allowed 20 Gbit/s data to propagate 125,000 km error free with an amplifier spacing approaching the soliton period. Ultimately the speed of operation of such systems is limited by the electronics used and, thus, a new form of soliton control is demonstrated using all optical techniques to achieve synchronous phase modulation.

Estimating parameters in stochastic systems:a variational Bayesian approach

This work is concerned with approximate inference in dynamical systems, from a variational Bayesian perspective. When modelling real world dynamical systems, stochastic differential equations appear as a natural choice, mainly because of their ability to model the noise of the system by adding a variation of some stochastic process to the deterministic dynamics. Hence, inference in such processes has drawn much attention. Here a new extended framework is derived that is based on a local polynomial approximation of a recently proposed variational Bayesian algorithm. The paper begins by showing that the new extension of this variational algorithm can be used for state estimation (smoothing) and converges to the original algorithm. However, the main focus is on estimating the (hyper-) parameters of these systems (i.e. drift parameters and diffusion coefficients). The new approach is validated on a range of different systems which vary in dimensionality and non-linearity. These are the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, the exact likelihood of which can be computed analytically, the univariate and highly non-linear, stochastic double well and the multivariate chaotic stochastic Lorenz ’63 (3D model). As a special case the algorithm is also applied to the 40 dimensional stochastic Lorenz ’96 system. In our investigation we compare this new approach with a variety of other well known methods, such as the hybrid Monte Carlo, dual unscented Kalman filter, full weak-constraint 4D-Var algorithm and analyse empirically their asymptotic behaviour as a function of observation density or length of time window increases. In particular we show that we are able to estimate parameters in both the drift (deterministic) and the diffusion (stochastic) part of the model evolution equations using our new methods.

Planning and implementing safety management systems

This thesis describes a study of the content and applicability of BS8800:1996 Guide to occupational health and safety management systems. The research is presented chronologically, with literature review and content analysis of SMS related guides and standards interwoven with two elements of qualitative empirical work. The first of these was carried out shortly after publication of BS8800 in 1996, a 'before-the-event' investigation of how organisations were intending to approach SMS implementation. The challenges faced by these organisations are reviewed against standard management theory, suggesting that the initial motivation for SMS implementation governs the approach organisations will adopt to guidance such as BS8800. The second phase of empirical work was undertaken in the context of OHSAS 18001, an auditable protocol based on BS8800, which allows organisations to certify their safety management systems. A discussion of the evolution of certifiable safety management system is presented, highlighting the similarities and differences between this, BS8800, SMS and wider management system standards. A case study then reviews the experiences of a catering company that implemented 18001, motivated by the opportunity for certification as a business benefit. The empirical work is used to comment on the guidance provided by BS8800, within its evolved role as guidance organisations may use for implementation of a SMS to be certified according to the specifications of OHSAS 18001. It is suggested that optimal implementation is facilitated by initial status review, continual improvement and the use of annexes, where there are used to make changes to the existing safety management system. This thesis concludes with a discussion of these elements, highlighting pertinent areas within BS8800 where revision or amendment may be appropriate.

Dissipative nonlinear structures in optical fiber systems II : self-similar parabolic pulses in active fibers

In this second talk on dissipative structures in fiber applications, we overview theoretical aspects of the generation, evolution and characterization of self-similar parabolic-shaped pulses in fiber amplifier media. In particular, we present a perturbation analysis that describes the structural changes induced by third-order fiber dispersion on the parabolic pulse solution of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation with gain. Promising applications of parabolic pulses in optical signal post-processing and regeneration in communication systems are also discussed.

Dissipative nonlinear structures in optical fiber systems III : dissipative solitons via nonlinear mapping

In the third and final talk on dissipative structures in fiber applications, we discuss mathematical techniques that can be used to characterize modern laser systems that consist of several discrete elements. In particular, we use a nonlinear mapping technique to evaluate high power laser systems where significant changes in the pulse evolution per cavity round trip is observed. We demonstrate that dissipative soliton solutions might be effectively described using this Poincaré mapping approach.