Információs paradoxon a vállalkozások hitelezésében nem fizető vevő esetén (An innovation paradox in enterprise financing where buyers fail to pay)

Cikkünkben a vállalkozók külső finanszírozásának modelljét terjesztjük ki arra az - irodalom által eddig nem tárgyalt - esetre, amikor a vállalkozónak van nem fizető vevője. Szerződéselméleti megközelítésünkben a vállalkozó hitelképességére vonatkozó információ aszimmetrikus a tranzakcióban részt vevő felek között, s ez morális kockázatnak ad teret. Megfigyelhető, hogy ilyenkor a pontosan fizető vevők számára is hitelszűke lép fel. A vállalkozó és a finanszírozó közötti optimális szerződés nem fizető vevő hatására további hitelszűkösséget generál. Két esetet vizsgálunk: az egyikben a vállalkozó információs előnyben van a vevő nemfizetésére vonatkozóan, a másikban nincs ilyen előny. A két modellváltozat alapján információs paradoxon jellemzi a kialakuló finanszírozási helyzetet: a vállalkozó kisebb összegű hitelhez jut az említett információs előnye esetén, mint amikor közte és a finanszírozó között szimmetrikus az információ. A modell azt a - magyar kis- és középvállalkozóknál látott - jelenséget írja le, amikor nem transzparens a szállító-vevő viszonya, és a finanszírozó bank e miatt az információs hátrány miatt kevesebb hitelt nyújt kis- és középvállalati ügyfeleinek. _____ The model of external financing of the firm is extended here to cases where there may be defaults on account receivables. Information asymmetry between entrepreneur and lender on a firm's creditworthiness leads to moral hazard and credit rationing, even in the absence of default risk. The authors show an optimal debt contract that formulates the situation, and focus on two cases: where the entrepreneur has an information advantage on defaults on receivables, and where the information is symmetric. A comparison of these cases revealed a paradoxical knowledge issue in external financing: a better informed entrepreneur may be able to afford a smaller financing ability. The model describes a frequent phenomenon in small businesses, when the relationship between buyer and seller lacks transparency, and lenders offer lower amount of lending to small and medium-sized enterprises.

A fedezetlen bankközi forintpiac hálózati dinamikájának vizsgálata a likviditási válság előtt és után (Examination of the network dynamics of the uncovered interbank forint markel before the liquidity crisis and after)

A cikkben a magyar fedezetlen bankközi forintpiac hálózatának időbeli alakulását vizsgáljuk 2002 decemberétől 2009 márciusáig. Bemutatjuk a piac általános jellemzőit (forgalom, kamatláb, koncentráció stb.) és az alapvető hálózati mutatókat. Azt tapasztaljuk, hogy az időszak első felében ezek a jellemzők lényegében stabilak voltak. 2006-2007-től kezdve azonban a mutatók egy része kezdett jelentősen megváltozni: a hitelfelvevők koncentrációja nőtt, az átlagos közelség és az átlagos fokszám csökkent, továbbá a hálózat magjának mérete is csökkent. Ezek a jelek arra utalhatnak, hogy a bankok már a válság kitörése előtt érzékelték a növekvő hitelkockázatot, és egyre inkább megválogatták, hogy kinek adnak hitelt. Figyelemre méltó, hogy mindeközben az általános piaci mutatók (forgalom, kamatláb, illetve ezek volatilitása) semmiféle változásra utaló jelet nem tükröztek egészen 2008 októberéig, de ekkor hirtelen minden mutatóban egyértelművé vált a rezsimváltás. Végül részletesen elemezzük az egyes szereplők viselkedését, és megmutatjuk, hogy válságban az egyes szerepek drasztikusan megváltoztak (például forrásokból nyelők lettek, és fordítva). / === / The article examines the changes in the network of Hungary's uncovered interbank forint market over the period Decembcr 2000 to March 2009. It presents the general features of the market (volume, interest rates, concentration etc.) and its basic network. It is found that the features were largely stable in the first half of the period, but some of the indicators began to change significantly in 2006-7: the concentration of borrowers incrcased, average distance and average degree declined, as did the size of the core of the network. These signs pointed to the fact that the banks had sensed an increase in credit risk even before the crisis broke and were becoming increasingly choosy selective in their lending. Meanwhile, however. there aerc no indications of change in the general market indicators (volume, interest rates, or volatility of these) right up to October 2008, when the change of regime was clear in all indicators. Finally, the authors analyse in detail the behaviour of each participant and show that thc roles of some altered drastically with the crisis (e.g. sources became consumers and vice versa).

Debt Restructuring in the Euro Area: a Necessary but Manageable Evil?

There are two possible responses to the Greek debt crisis: ‘Plan A’, continued official lending, for as long as needed, with possible voluntary private sector involvement, and ‘Plan B’, coercive preemptive or post-default restructuring with significant face value reduction in privately-held debt. Both options have risks, but it is necessary to move to Plan B sooner or later. The impact on Greece could be mitigated by foreign bank ownership and proper liquidity support measures. The direct spillover impact on the rest of the euro area seems small. But there is the risk of contagion, which is a serious concern. There is a cautious case for delaying somewhat Plan B in order to prepare for it.

A hitelbiztosítékok jogi szabályozása és a gazdasági versenyképesség összefüggései

A hitelbiztosítékok gazdasági hátterének a vizsgálata során elemezni kell a biztosítékok és a hitelezés, illetve a hitelezési piac kapcsolatát, valamint a biztosítékok és a fizetésképtelenségi eljárások viszonyát. A biztosítékok közül a zálogjog kötődik leginkább a tőke- és hitelpiacokhoz. Ezt a viszonyt a tanulmány konkrét történeti példákon keresztül is megvizsgálja. Különösen fontos ebből a szempontból a német jelzálogjogi szabályozás legutóbbi, 2008-as változásainak bemutatása. Ebből a magyar jogalkotó számára is hasznos következtetéseket lehet levonni. A zálogjog mellett a tanulmány bemutatja a kezesség intézményét is. A kezesség hatályos jogi szabályozása több szempontból hiányos, nem felel meg a gazdasági élet igényeinek. A dolgozat ehhez kapcsolódóan javaslatokat is megfogalmaz a jövőbeni jogi szabályozásra vonatkozóan. ----- Abstract: The assessment of the economic background of loan guarantees demands an analysis of the interplay between guarantees and lending and loan market, on one hand and between the guarantees and bankruptcy, on the other hand. Pledges are most connected to capital and loan markets. In this context is specifically important the German law on pledge, including the amendments from 2008. German law offers useful lessons for the Hungarian legislator. Besides the pledge the research presents the institution of suretyship as well. The legal framework on suretyship has many gaps and does not comply with the needs of economy. The paper makes recommendations on future legislation

A bizonyosságfüggvények elméletének alkalmazása a pénzügyi kimutatások ellenőrzésében (The application of the theory of belief functions in the audit of financial statements)

A könyvvizsgálati kockázat a téves auditjelentés kiadásának kockázata olyan esetekben, amikor a beszámoló lényeges hibás állítást tartalmaz. Ez a kockázat indirekt módon a hitelintézetek és pénzügyi vállalkozások működésében is megjelenik azokban az esetekben, amikor a lényeges hibás állítást a finanszírozott vállalkozás auditált beszámolója tartalmazza, amelynek az alapján finanszírozási döntést hoznak, vagy a finanszírozás folytatásáról a beszámolóban szereplő, hibás információkból számított hitelkovenánsok alapján döntenek. A könyvvizsgálat kockázatában a vizsgált gazdálkodó üzleti kockázatai tükröződnek vissza, ezért a kockázat felmérése és az ellenőrzés ennek alapján való megtervezése, majd végrehajtása kulcsfontosságú. Jelen tanulmány – kapcsolódva a Hitelintézeti Szemle 2011. évi 4. számához – szintén a kockázat és bizonytalanság témakörét tárgyalja, pontosabban ennek egy gyakorlati vetületét: a bizonyosságfüggvények (belief functions) alkalmazását a könyvvizsgálatban; mindezt a teljesség és a tankönyvszerű rendszerfelépítés igénye nélkül. A módszer ugyanis hazánkban szinte ismeretlen, nemzetközi viszonylatban viszont empirikus kutatásban is rámutattak már az alkalmazás lehetséges előnyeire a hagyományos valószínűségelméleten alapuló számszerű kockázatbecslésekkel szemben. Eszerint a bizonyosságfüggvények jobban reprezentálják a könyvvizsgálóknak a kockázatról alkotott képét, mint a valószínűségek, mert – szemben a hagyományos modellel – nem két, hanem három állapotot kezelnek: a pozitív bizonyíték létezését, a negatív bizonyíték létezését és a bizonyíték hiányának esetét. _______ Audit risk is the risk that the auditor expresses an inappropriate audit opinion when the fi nancial statements are materially misstated. This kind of risk indirectly appears in the fi nancial statements of fi nancial institutions, when the material misstatement is in the fi nanced entity’s statements that serve as a basis for lending decisions or when the decision is made based upon credit covenants calculated from misstated information. The risks of the audit process refl ect the business risks of the auditee, so the assessment of risks, and further the planning and performance of the audit based on it is of key importance. The current study – connecting to No 4 2011 of Hitelintézeti Szemle – also discusses the topic of risk and uncertainty, or to be more precise a practical implementation of the aforementioned: the application of belief functions in the fi eld of external audit. All this without the aim of achieving completeness or textbook-like scrutiny in building up the theory. While the formalism is virtually unknown in Hungary, on the international scene empirical studies pointed out the possible advantages of the application of the method in contrast to risk assessments based on the traditional theory of probability. Accordingly, belief functions provide a better representation of auditors’ perception of risk, as in contrast to the traditional model, belief functions deal with three rather than two states: the existence of supportive evidence, that of negative evidence and the lack of evidence.

Can Europe recover without credit?

Data from 135 countries covering five decades suggests that creditless recoveries, in which the stock of real credit does not return to the pre-crisis level for three years after the GDP trough, are not rare and are characterised by remarkable real GDP growth rates: 4.7 percent per year in middle-income countries and 3.2 percent per year in high-income countries. However, the implications of these historical episodes for the current European situation are limited, for two main reasons. First, creditless recoveries are much less common in high-income countries, than in low-income countries which are financially undeveloped. European economies heavily depend on bank loans and research suggests that loan supply played a major role in the recent weak credit performance of Europe. There are reasons to believe that, despite various efforts, normal lending has not yet been restored. Limited loan supply could be disruptive for the European economic recovery and there has been only a minor substitution of bank loans with debt securities. Second, creditless recoveries were associated with significant real exchange rate depreciation, which has hardly occurred so far in most of Europe. This stylised fact suggests that it might be difficult to re-establish economic growth in the absence of sizeable real exchange rate depreciation, if credit growth does not return.

Can Europe recover without credit?

Data from 135 countries covering five decades suggests that creditless recoveries, in which the stock of real credit does not return to the pre-crisis level for three years after the GDP trough, are not rare and are characterised by remarkable real GDP growth rates: 4.7 percent per year in middle-income countries and 3.2 percent per year in high-income countries. However, the implications of these historical episodes for the current European situation are limited, for two main reasons. First, creditless recoveries are much less common in high-income countries, than in low-income countries which are financially undeveloped. European economies heavily depend on bank loans and research suggests that loan supply played a major role in the recent weak credit performance of Europe. There are reasons to believe that, despite various efforts, normal lending has not yet been restored. Limited loan supply could be disruptive for the European economic recovery and there has been only a minor substitution of bank loans with debt securities. Second, creditless recoveries were associated with significant real exchange rate depreciation, which has hardly occurred so far in most of Europe. This stylised fact suggests that it might be difficult to re-establish economic growth in the absence of sizeable real exchange rate depreciation, if credit growth does not return.

Some fairytales about risk management

When I started writing this paper, I thought I would only be writing about the parallel between the mathematical theory of inventory and production – as a familiar model of operations research – and liquidity management. And then during the writing process, predictably enough I must say, the scandals surrounding the Buda-Cash and Quaestor brokerages erupted. Likewise in this period, the debate about foreign currency lending gained fresh impetus; about who made which mistakes when, or whether there was anyone who didn’t make mistakes. The most surprising twist revealed in the Buda-Cash and Quaestor cases – beyond alleged losses running into several hundreds of billions of forints – was that all this could be accumulated in 15 years of selfless effort. And even if this information proves to be comment born of initial over-excitement, it still demands an explanation one way or another. If it’s true, then how can this be? And if it isn’t, then what made it appear as if this is what happened? The questions and contradictions are obvious. But the main questions are these: What do risk managers actually do? What do we pay them for? And how far can we trust them?

A fenntartható fejlődés elvei és azok érvényre jutása a banki gyakorlatban II. rész (The principles of sustainable development and their realization in the banking practice II. part)

Az utóbbi évtizedben a környezettudatos gazdálkodás szerepének felértékelődése új tevékenységi területet nyitott meg a bankok előtt, amit nemzetközi szóhasználattal élve green banking-nek neveznek. A fenntartható fejlődést támogató projektek banki finanszírozása számos lehetőséget nyit a pénzügyi intézmények számára – hírnév, új ügyfélbázis, kockázatcsökkentés, jövedelmezőség növelése –, amennyiben a bankok a fenntarthatóság elveit megfelelően integrálják működési stratégiájukba. A cikksorozat második részében a szerzők a bankok fenntartható működését támogató külső és belső motiváló tényezőit veszik vizsgálat alá, amelyet már nemzetközi elvek és megállapodások is szabályoznak és támogatnak. Kiemelt fontosságot tulajdonítanak a környezettudatos gazdálkodás banki stratégiába történő integrálásának, melynek alapjait teremthetik meg a cikkben vizsgált nemzetközi irányelvek. ________ In the last decade, a lot of publications came to light, dealing with the social and environmental responsibility of financial institutions. Banks are expected to improve their competitive advantage by demonstrating economic development, while promoting environment care and social responsibility. This sustainable finance means to manage environmental and social risks in corporate lending and project financing. Green financial institutions have developed a wide range of innovations that can support sustainable development. This article highlights a few external and internal factor that support this aim, and which are regulated by international principles. However the authors’ survey shows that in the relevant literature there are a lot of ways to define sustainability and its achievement. They suggest that all of them can be interpreted associated with green banking operation. The goal of this paper is to identify the role of financial institutions in achieving sustainable development, and stress its strategic importance. The authors also attempt to show, why and how can this sector become the promoter of sustainability.

The political economy of sovereign debt

This dissertation examines international lending arrangements between a competitive foreign investor and a less-developed country. Given that the benefits and costs of borrowing are distributed unequally across society, it is of interest to examine the conditions under which borrowing occurs and how the borrowed funds are allocated. Three theoretical models are developed to consider optimal lending arrangements in the presence of sovereign risk. The models show how a society's level and distribution of wealth influences its access to loans and the terms of the loan agreements. Optimal loan contracts are established, which place either a debt ceiling or a debt floor on the amount of the loan that, will be offered. ^

Essays on financial crises

This dissertation analyzes recent financial crises in developed and developing countries. The research emphasizes the effects of institutional factors on the international banking and currency crises and their output losses. ^ Chapter two examines the roles of regulation, supervision, and countries' institutional environment in determining the probability of banking crises for a panel of fifteen developed countries from 1975 to 1998. The results from a multivariate logit model indicated that countries with greater government involvement, less capital standard requirements, and lower lending limits on a single borrower are associated with a higher probability of banking crises. ^ Chapter three studies whether output loss in banking crisis differs in market-based or bank-based financial systems. Using existing banking crisis data for sixty-nine countries during 1970–1999, we investigate whether the underlying financial system affects the output loss. The results show that output losses are more serious in market-based economies than those in bank-based economies. Longer crisis duration tends to increase the output losses in banking crises. Finally, countries with deposit insurance and strict law enforcement have less output losses. ^ Chapter four uses macroeconomic and institutional measures to explain the extent of exchange rate depreciation and the decline in stock prices for emerging countries affected by the Mexican currency crisis of 1994–95. The results show that countries with more government budget deficits, and worse reserve adequacies tend to experience large exchange rate depreciation. The institutional measures do not explain much the extent of both the exchange rate depreciation and the decline in stock prices. ^

The influence of corporate interests on USAID's development agenda: The case of Haiti

This dissertation is an attempt to use the radical political economy approach, which assumes that there is a connection between a state's strategic interests and the interests of dominant multinational corporations (MNCs) located within a state's territory, to explain continuity in the USAID development agenda and lending patterns during the past 30 years of development aid to Haiti. Employing the qualitative method of "process-tracing," my study concludes that the radical political economy approach has an explanatory power when it comes to understanding continuity in the USAID development agenda and lending patterns during the past 30 years of development aid to Haiti. The evidence shows that USAID has implemented in Haiti, from the 1980s through the post-9/11 Washington Consensus period, neoliberal policies that conform to the political economy of US multinational corporations (US MNCs). Contrary to the claim that the USAID-sponsored post-earthquake development paradigm has departed from previous development strategies, the study has shown that USAID has used the occurrence of the January 2010 earthquake tragedy to accelerate in Haiti the implementation of a neoliberal agenda congenial to the business promotion of multinational investors, particularly US multinational corporations. In terms of the way ahead, the study argues for the implementation of a new development approach articulated by a legitimate Haitian state and primarily intended to promote the socioeconomic development of the poorest Haitians.

Protecting Your Assets: A Well-Defined Credit Policy Is The Key

In - Protecting Your Assets: A Well-Defined Credit Policy Is The Key – an essay by Steven V. Moll, Associate Professor, The School of Hospitality Management at Florida International University, Professor Moll observes at the outset: “Bad debts as a percentage of credit sales have climbed to record levels in the industry. The author offers suggestions on protecting assets and working with the law to better manage the business.” “Because of the nature of the hospitality industry and its traditional liberal credit policies, especially in hotels, bad debts as a percentage of credit sales have climbed to record levels,” our author says. “In 1977, hotels showing a net income maintained an average accounts receivable ratio to total sales of 3.4 percent. In 1983, the accounts receivable ratio to total sales increased to 4.1 percent in hotels showing a net income and 4.4 percent in hotels showing a net loss,” he further cites. As the professor implies, there are ways to mitigate the losses from bad credit or difficult to collect credit sales. In this article Professor Moll offers suggestions on how to do that. Moll would suggest that hotels and food & beverage operations initially tighten their credit extension policies, and on the following side, be more aggressive in their collection-of-debt pursuits. There is balance to consider here and bad credit in and of itself as a negative element is not the only reflection the profit/loss mirror would offer. “Credit managers must know what terms to offer in order to compete and afford the highest profit margin allowable,” Moll says. “They must know the risk involved with each guest account and be extremely alert to the rights and wrongs of good credit management,” he advocates. A sound profit policy can be the result of some marginal and additional credit risk on the part of the operation manager. “Reality has shown that high profits, not small credit losses, are the real indicator of good credit management,” the author reveals. “A low bad debt history may indicate that an establishment has an overly conservative credit management policy and is sacrificing potential sales and profits by turning away marginal accounts,” Moll would have you believe, and the science suggests there is no reason not to. Professor Moll does provide a fairly comprehensive list to illustrate when a manager would want to adopt a conservative credit policy. In the final analysis the design is to implement a policy which weighs an acceptable amount of credit risk against a potential profit ratio. In closing, Professor Moll does offer some collection strategies for loose credit accounts, with reference to computer and attorney participation, and brings cash and cash discounts into the discussion as well. Additionally, there is some very useful information about what debt collectors – can’t – do!

Securitization of Lodging Real Estate Finance

In the early 1990s, the U.S. lodging industry witnessed a severe shortage of debt capital as traditional lenders exited the market. During this period hotel lending was revolutionized by the emergence of real estate debt securities. The author discusses key factors which have affected the growth and development of commercial mortgage backed securities and their changing role as a significant source of debt capital to the lodging industry.

The relationship of immigrant status to perceptions of reading and reading literacy among young Black students: A test of the Cultural -Ecological Theory of School Performance

This study tests Ogbu and Simons' Cultural-Ecological Theory of School Performance using data from the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study of 2001 (PIRLS), a large-scale international survey and reading assessment involving fourth grade students from 35 countries, including the United States. This theory argues that Black immigrant students outperform their non-immigrant counterparts, academically, and that achievement differences are attributed to stronger educational commitment in Black immigrant families. Four hypotheses are formulated to test this theory: Black immigrant students have (a) more receptive attitudes toward reading; (b) a more positive reading self-concept; and (c) a higher level of reading literacy. Furthermore, (d) the relationship of immigrant status to reading perceptions and literacy persists after including selected predictors. These hypotheses are tested separately for girls and boys, while also examining immigrant students' generational status (i.e., foreign-born or second-generation). ^ PIRLS data from a subset of Black students (N=525) in the larger U.S. sample of 3,763 are analyzed to test the hypotheses, using analysis of variance, correlation and multiple regression techniques. Findings reveal that hypotheses a and b are not confirmed (contradicting the Cultural-Ecological Theory) and c and d are partially supported (lending partial support to the theory). Specifically, immigrant and non-immigrant students did not differ in attitudes toward reading or reading self-concept; second-generation immigrant boys outperformed both non-immigrant and foreign-born immigrant boys in reading literacy, but no differences were found among girls; and, while being second-generation immigrant had a relatively stronger relationship to reading literacy for boys, among girls, selected socio-cultural predictors, number of books in the home and length of U.S. residence, had relatively stronger relationship to reading self-concept than did immigrant status. This study, therefore, indicates that future research employing the Cultural-Ecological Theory should: (a) take gender and generational status into account (b) identify additional socio-cultural predictors of Black children's academic perceptions and performance; and (c) continue to build on this body of evidence-based knowledge to better inform educational policy and school personnel in addressing needs of all children. ^