Fate Hazardous elements in soils surrounding a coal-fired power plant complex

Proceedings of the 13th International UFZ-Deltares Conference on Sustainable Use and Management of Soil, Sediment and Water Resources - 9–12 June 2015 • Copenhagen, Denmark

Comparing the performance of geostatistical models with additional information from covariates for sewage plume characterization

In this work, kriging with covariates is used to model and map the spatial distribution of salinity measurements gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle in a sea outfall monitoring campaign aiming to distinguish the effluent plume from the receiving waters and characterize its spatial variability in the vicinity of the discharge. Four different geostatistical linear models for salinity were assumed, where the distance to diffuser, the west-east positioning, and the south-north positioning were used as covariates. Sample variograms were fitted by the Mat`ern models using weighted least squares and maximum likelihood estimation methods as a way to detect eventual discrepancies. Typically, the maximum likelihood method estimated very low ranges which have limited the kriging process. So, at least for these data sets, weighted least squares showed to be the most appropriate estimation method for variogram fitting. The kriged maps show clearly the spatial variation of salinity, and it is possible to identify the effluent plume in the area studied. The results obtained show some guidelines for sewage monitoring if a geostatistical analysis of the data is in mind. It is important to treat properly the existence of anomalous values and to adopt a sampling strategy that includes transects parallel and perpendicular to the effluent dispersion.

From the portolan chart of the mediterranean to the latitude chart of the atlantic

Thesis submitted to the Instituto Superior de Estatística e Gestão de Informação da Universidade Nova de Lisboa in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Information Management – Geographic Information Systems

Spatio-temporal analyses of the relationship between armed conflict and climate change in the eastern Africa

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Institutions and firm formation: An empirical analysis of Portuguese municipalities

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Analysis and simulation of social unrest in Europe: towards understanding social unrest in Europe

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Phlebotominae sand flies associated with a tegumentary leishmaniasis outbreak, Tucumán Province, Argentina

The distribution of sand flies and cases of tegumentary leishmaniasis in the area surrounding JB Alberd city, and the proximities of Catamarca province were studied, after an increase of reported cases from JB Alberdi, Tucumán province, in 2003. Of 14 confirmed cases, 57% were females and 57% were less than 15 years old, suggesting peridomestic transmission. However, 86% of them lived close to the Marapa river forest gallery and related wooded areas. Over 1,013 sand flies were collected; Lutzomyia neivai (Pinto, 1926) was prevalent at all the sites (92.3%), while Lutzomyia migonei (França, 1920) (6.7%) and Lu. cortelezzii (Brèthes, 1923) (1%) were also found. The spatial distribution of Lu. neivai overlapped that of the cases, with higher abundance in microfocal hot spots close to the river in stable vegetated habitats or modified habitats with shadow and animal blood sources. The cumulative outcome of anthropic, ecological and climatic factors could have contributed to the onset of the outbreak.

Exploratory analysis of OpenStreetMap for land use classification

In the last years, volunteers have been contributing massively to what we know nowadays as Volunteered Geographic Information. This huge amount of data might be hiding a vast geographical richness and therefore research needs to be conducted to explore their potential and use it in the solution of real world problems. In this study we conduct an exploratory analysis of data from the OpenStreetMap initiative. Using the Corine Land Cover database as reference and continental Portugal as the study area, we establish a possible correspondence between both classification nomenclatures, evaluate the quality of OpenStreetMap polygon features classification against Corine Land Cover classes from level 1 nomenclature, and analyze the spatial distribution of OpenStreetMap classes over continental Portugal. A global classification accuracy around 76% and interesting coverage areas’ values are remarkable and promising results that encourages us for future research on this topic.

Malacological survey of Biomphalaria snails in municipalities along the Estrada Real in the southeast of the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The increasing practice of ecotourism and rural tourism in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, highlights the importance of studies concerning the occurrence of potential intermediate hosts of Schistosoma mansoni. This study aimed to identify species of Biomphalaria snails in municipalities along the Estrada Real, an important Brazilian tourism project. METHODS: The specimens were collected in different water collections of 36 municipalities along the Estrada Real in the southeast of the State of Minas Gerais. Biomphalaria species were characterized using both morphological and molecular approaches. The research was conducted between August 2005 and September 2009 and all the sites visited were georeferenced using GPS. RESULTS: Six Biomphalaria species were found in 30 of the 36 municipalities studied: glabrata, tenagophila, straminea, peregrina, occidentalis and schrammi. The first three species of Biomphalaria, recognized as intermediate hosts of S. mansoni, were present in 33.3%, 47.2% and 8.3% of the municipalities studied, respectively. The mollusks were found in different types of water collections and no infection by S. mansoni was detected. The highest occurrence of Biomphalaria concentration was verified in the area covered by the Caminho Novo route (Diamantina/MG to Rio de Janeiro/RJ). CONCLUSIONS: Considering the occurrence of schistosomiasis in the State of Minas Gerais and the socioeconomic repercussions involved in the Estrada Real Project, this work focuses on the vulnerability of water collections due to the presence of Biomphalaria mollusks and emphasizes the need for epidemiological surveillance and sanitary and educational measures integrated with the local community and tourism sectors.

Métodos estatísticos aplicados à modelação de dados oncológicos

RESUMO: A estrutura demográfica portuguesa é marcada por baixas taxas de natalidade e mortalidade, onde a população idosa representa uma fatia cada vez mais representativa, fruto de uma maior longevidade. A incidência do cancro, na sua generalidade, é maior precisamente nessa classe etária. A par de outras doenças igualmente lesivas (e.g. cardiovasculares, degenerativas) cuja incidência aumenta com a idade, o cancro merece relevo. Estudos epidemiológicos apresentam o cancro como líder mundial na mortalidade. Em países desenvolvidos, o seu peso representa 25% do número total de óbitos, percentagem essa que mais que duplica noutros países. A obesidade, a baixa ingestão de frutas e vegetais, o sedentarismo, o consumo de tabaco e a ingestão de álcool, configuram-se como cinco dos fatores de risco presentes em 30% das mortes diagnosticadas por cancro. A nível mundial e, em particular no Sul de Portugal, os cancros do estômago, recto e cólon apresentam elevadas taxas de incidência e de mortalidade. Do ponto de vista estritamente económico, o cancro é a doença que mais recursos consome enquanto que do ponto de vista físico e psicológico é uma doença que não limita o seu raio de ação ao doente. O cancro é, portanto, uma doença sempre atual e cada vez mais presente, pois reflete os hábitos e o ambiente de uma sociedade, não obstante as características intrínsecas a cada indivíduo. A adoção de metodologia estatística aplicada à modelação de dados oncológicos é, sobretudo, valiosa e pertinente quando a informação é oriunda de Registos de Cancro de Base Populacional (RCBP). A pertinência é justificada pelo fato destes registos permitirem aferir numa população específica, o risco desta sofrer e/ou vir a sofrer de uma dada neoplasia. O peso que as neoplasias do estômago, cólon e recto assumem foi um dos elementos que motivou o presente estudo que tem por objetivo analisar tendências, projeções, sobrevivências relativas e a distribuição espacial destas neoplasias. Foram considerados neste estudo todos os casos diagnosticados no período 1998-2006, pelo RCBP da região sul de Portugal (ROR-Sul). O estudo descritivo inicial das taxas de incidência e da tendência em cada uma das referidas neoplasias teve como base uma única variável temporal - o ano de diagnóstico - também designada por período. Todavia, uma metodologia que contemple apenas uma única variável temporal é limitativa. No cancro, para além do período, a idade à data do diagnóstico e a coorte de nascimento, são variáveis temporais que poderão prestar um contributo adicional na caracterização das taxas de incidência. A relevância assumida por estas variáveis temporais justificou a sua inclusão numaclasse de modelos designada por modelos Idade-Período-Coorte (Age-Period-Cohort models - APC), utilizada na modelação das taxas de incidência para as neoplasias em estudo. Os referidos modelos permitem ultrapassar o problema de relações não lineares e/ou de mudanças súbitas na tendência linear das taxas. Nos modelos APC foram consideradas a abordagem clássica e a abordagem com recurso a funções suavizadoras. A modelação das taxas foi estratificada por sexo. Foram ainda estudados os respectivos submodelos (apenas com uma ou duas variáveis temporais). Conhecido o comportamento das taxas de incidência, uma questão subsequente prende-se com a sua projeção em períodos futuros. Porém, o efeito de mudanças estruturais na população, ao qual Portugal não é alheio, altera substancialmente o número esperado de casos futuros com cancro. Estimativas da incidência de cancro a nível mundial obtidas a partir de projeções demográficas apontam para um aumento de 25% dos casos de cancro nas próximas duas décadas. Embora a projeção da incidência esteja associada a alguma incerteza, as projeções auxiliam no planeamento de políticas de saúde para a afetação de recursos e permitem a avaliação de cenários e de intervenções que tenham como objetivo a redução do impacto do cancro. O desconhecimento de projeções da taxa de incidência destas neoplasias na área abrangida pelo ROR-Sul, levou à utilização de modelos de projeção que diferem entre si quanto à sua estrutura, linearidade (ou não) dos seus coeficientes e comportamento das taxas na série histórica de dados (e.g. crescente, decrescente ou estável). Os referidos modelos pautaram-se por duas abordagens: (i)modelos lineares no que concerne ao tempo e (ii) extrapolação de efeitos temporais identificados pelos modelos APC para períodos futuros. Foi feita a projeção das taxas de incidência para os anos de 2007 a 2010 tendo em conta o género, idade e neoplasia. É ainda apresentada uma estimativa do impacto económico destas neoplasias no período de projeção. Uma questão pertinente e habitual no contexto clínico e a que o presente estudo pretende dar resposta, reside em saber qual a contribuição da neoplasia em si para a sobrevivência do doente. Nesse sentido, a mortalidade por causa específica é habitualmente utilizada para estimar a mortalidade atribuível apenas ao cancro em estudo. Porém, existem muitas situações em que a causa de morte é desconhecida e, mesmo que esta informação esteja disponível através dos certificados de óbito, não é fácil distinguir os casos em que a principal causa de morte é devida ao cancro. A sobrevivência relativa surge como uma medida objetiva que não necessita do conhecimento da causa específica da morte para o seu cálculo e dar-nos-á uma estimativa da probabilidade de sobrevivência caso o cancro em análise, num cenário hipotético, seja a única causa de morte. Desconhecida a principal causa de morte nos casos diagnosticados com cancro no registo ROR-Sul, foi determinada a sobrevivência relativa para cada uma das neoplasias em estudo, para um período de follow-up de 5 anos, tendo em conta o sexo, a idade e cada uma das regiões que constituem o registo. Foi adotada uma análise por período e as abordagens convencional e por modelos. No epílogo deste estudo, é analisada a influência da variabilidade espaço-temporal nas taxas de incidência. O longo período de latência das doenças oncológicas, a dificuldade em identificar mudanças súbitas no comportamento das taxas, populações com dimensão e riscos reduzidos, são alguns dos elementos que dificultam a análise da variação temporal das taxas. Nalguns casos, estas variações podem ser reflexo de flutuações aleatórias. O efeito da componente temporal aferida pelos modelos APC dá-nos um retrato incompleto da incidência do cancro. A etiologia desta doença, quando conhecida, está associada com alguma frequência a fatores de risco tais como condições socioeconómicas, hábitos alimentares e estilo de vida, atividade profissional, localização geográfica e componente genética. O “contributo”, dos fatores de risco é, por vezes, determinante e não deve ser ignorado. Surge, assim, a necessidade em complementar o estudo temporal das taxas com uma abordagem de cariz espacial. Assim, procurar-se-á aferir se as variações nas taxas de incidência observadas entre os concelhos inseridos na área do registo ROR-Sul poderiam ser explicadas quer pela variabilidade temporal e geográfica quer por fatores socioeconómicos ou, ainda, pelos desiguais estilos de vida. Foram utilizados os Modelos Bayesianos Hierárquicos Espaço-Temporais com o objetivo de identificar tendências espaço-temporais nas taxas de incidência bem como quantificar alguns fatores de risco ajustados à influência simultânea da região e do tempo. Os resultados obtidos pela implementação de todas estas metodologias considera-se ser uma mais valia para o conhecimento destas neoplasias em Portugal.------------ABSTRACT: mortality rates, with the elderly being an increasingly representative sector of the population, mainly due to greater longevity. The incidence of cancer, in general, is greater precisely in that age group. Alongside with other equally damaging diseases (e.g. cardiovascular,degenerative), whose incidence rates increases with age, cancer is of special note. In epidemiological studies, cancer is the global leader in mortality. In developed countries its weight represents 25% of the total number of deaths, with this percentage being doubled in other countries. Obesity, a reduce consumption of fruit and vegetables, physical inactivity, smoking and alcohol consumption, are the five risk factors present in 30% of deaths due to cancer. Globally, and in particular in the South of Portugal, the stomach, rectum and colon cancer have high incidence and mortality rates. From a strictly economic perspective, cancer is the disease that consumes more resources, while from a physical and psychological point of view, it is a disease that is not limited to the patient. Cancer is therefore na up to date disease and one of increased importance, since it reflects the habits and the environment of a society, regardless the intrinsic characteristics of each individual. The adoption of statistical methodology applied to cancer data modelling is especially valuable and relevant when the information comes from population-based cancer registries (PBCR). In such cases, these registries allow for the assessment of the risk and the suffering associated to a given neoplasm in a specific population. The weight that stomach, colon and rectum cancers assume in Portugal was one of the motivations of the present study, that focus on analyzing trends, projections, relative survival and spatial distribution of these neoplasms. The data considered in this study, are all cases diagnosed between 1998 and 2006, by the PBCR of Portugal, ROR-Sul.Only year of diagnosis, also called period, was the only time variable considered in the initial descriptive analysis of the incidence rates and trends for each of the three neoplasms considered. However, a methodology that only considers one single time variable will probably fall short on the conclusions that could be drawn from the data under study. In cancer, apart from the variable period, the age at diagnosis and the birth cohort are also temporal variables and may provide an additional contribution to the characterization of the incidence. The relevance assumed by these temporal variables justified its inclusion in a class of models called Age-Period-Cohort models (APC). This class of models was used for the analysis of the incidence rates of the three cancers under study. APC models allow to model nonlinearity and/or sudden changes in linear relationships of rate trends. Two approaches of APC models were considered: the classical and the one using smoothing functions. The models were stratified by gender and, when justified, further studies explored other sub-models where only one or two temporal variables were considered. After the analysis of the incidence rates, a subsequent goal is related to their projections in future periods. Although the effect of structural changes in the population, of which Portugal is not oblivious, may substantially change the expected number of future cancer cases, the results of these projections could help planning health policies with the proper allocation of resources, allowing for the evaluation of scenarios and interventions that aim to reduce the impact of cancer in a population. Worth noting that cancer incidence worldwide obtained from demographic projections point out to an increase of 25% of cancer cases in the next two decades. The lack of projections of incidence rates of the three cancers under study in the area covered by ROR-Sul, led us to use a variety of forecasting models that differ in the nature and structure. For example, linearity or nonlinearity in their coefficients and the trend of the incidence rates in historical data series (e.g. increasing, decreasing or stable).The models followed two approaches: (i) linear models regarding time and (ii) extrapolation of temporal effects identified by the APC models for future periods. The study provide incidence rates projections and the numbers of newly diagnosed cases for the year, 2007 to 2010, taking into account gender, age and the type of cancer. In addition, an estimate of the economic impact of these neoplasms is presented for the projection period considered. This research also try to address a relevant and common clinical question in these type of studies, regarding the contribution of the type of cancer to the patient survival. In such studies, the primary cause of death is commonly used to estimate the mortality specifically due to the cancer. However, there are many situations in which the cause of death is unknown, or, even if this information is available through the death certificates, it is not easy to distinguish the cases where the primary cause of death is the cancer. With this in mind, the relative survival is an alternative measure that does not need the knowledge of the specific cause of death to be calculated. This estimate will represent the survival probability in the hypothetical scenario of a certain cancer be the only cause of death. For the patients with unknown cause of death that were diagnosed with cancer in the ROR-Sul, the relative survival was calculated for each of the cancers under study, for a follow-up period of 5 years, considering gender, age and each one of the regions that are part the registry. A period analysis was undertaken, considering both the conventional and the model approaches. In final part of this study, we analyzed the influence of space-time variability in the incidence rates. The long latency period of oncologic diseases, the difficulty in identifying subtle changes in the rates behavior, populations of reduced size and low risk are some of the elements that can be a challenge in the analysis of temporal variations in rates, that, in some cases, can reflect simple random fluctuations. The effect of the temporal component measured by the APC models gives an incomplete picture of the cancer incidence. The etiology of this disease, when known, is frequently associated to risk factors such as socioeconomic conditions, eating habits and lifestyle, occupation, geographic location and genetic component. The "contribution"of such risk factors is sometimes decisive in the evolution of the disease and should not be ignored. Therefore, there was the need to consider an additional approach in this study, one of spatial nature, addressing the fact that changes in incidence rates observed in the ROR-Sul area, could be explained either by temporal and geographical variability or by unequal socio-economic or lifestyle factors. Thus, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models were used with the purpose of identifying space-time trends in incidence rates together with the the analysis of the effect of the risk factors considered in the study. The results obtained and the implementation of all these methodologies are considered to be an added value to the knowledge of these neoplasms in Portugal.

Epidemiological aspects of human and canine visceral leishmaniasis in Montes Claros, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, between 2007 and 2009

INTRODUCTION: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an expanding zoonosis in Brazil and is becoming urbanized in several Brazilian regions. This study aims to describe the epidemiological features of human and canine VL in the municipality of Montes Claros, State of Minas Gerais, by focusing on their spatial distribution. METHODS: Data concerning human cases and reactive dogs for VL from 2007 to 2009 were obtained from the Information System for Disease Notification (SINAN) and from reports of the local Centro de Controle de Zoonoses (CCZ), respectively. The addresses of human and canine cases have been georeferenced and localized in thematic maps, allowing their spatial visualization as well as the identification of areas at risk of VL transmission. RESULTS: Ninety-five cases of human VL were reported in the period. The 0-9-year-old age group (48.4%) was the most affected, within which the majority consisted of male patients (64%). Of the samples collected for the canine serological survey, 2,919 (6.3%) were reactive to VL. The spatial localization of these cases shows that the disease was scattered in the urban area of the municipality. Areas showing a higher dissemination risk were concentrated in the central, northwestern, and southern regions of the city. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying the areas most at risk in urban Montes Claros may help guide actions toward local epidemiological vigilance and control.

Geographic analysis on the occurrence of human and canine leptospirosis in the city of Maringá, state of Paraná, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease, the primary hosts of which are wild, synanthropic, and household animals. Humans behave as terminal and accidental hosts. The prevalence of leptospirosis depends on carrier animals that disseminate the agent, on the environmental survival of this agent, and on the contact of susceptible individuals. Each serovar has one or more hosts with different adaptation levels. The focuses of leptospirosis are infected, sick, and asymptomatic animals, which are considered to be sources of environmental infection. This study aimed to determine the risk areas for leptospiral infection in stray dogs and patients diagnosed with leptospirosis from 2006 to 2008 in Maringá, State of Paraná, Brazil. METHODS: Three hundred and thirty-five stray dogs and 25 patients were studied. Serum from both animals and patients was examined by the microscopic serum agglutination test to study anti-leptospiral antibodies. To determine the risk areas and the spatial distribution of the disease, thematic maps were designed. RESULTS: Forty-one (12.2%) dogs positive for one or more leptospire serovars were observed, the most frequent serovars being Pyrogenes (43.9%), Canícola (21.9%), and Copennhageni (19.5%). Among the humans, 2 (8%) were positive for serovars Pyrogenes and Hardjo Prajitno and for Pyrogenes and Cynopteri. CONCLUSIONS: Spatial analysis showed that the risk for dogs and humans in the City of Maringá to become infected with leptospires exists in both the central and the peripheral areas, a fact that reinforces the relevance of this study and of continuous epidemiological and environmental surveillance actions to control the disease in animals and in humans.

Shiva's dance: Crisis, local institutions and private firms

The uneven spatial distribution of start-ups and their respective survival may reflect comparative advantages resulting from the local institutional background. For the first time, we explore this idea using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to assess the relative efficiency of Portuguese municipalities in this specific context. We depart from the related literature where expenditure is perceived as a desirable input by choosing a measure of fiscal responsibility and infrastructural variables in the first stage. Comparing results for 2006 and 2010, we find that mean performance decreased substantially 1) with the effects of the Global Financial Crisis, 2) as municipal population increases and 3) as financial independence decreases. A second stage is then performed employing a double-bootstrap procedure to evaluate how the regional context outside the control of local authorities (e.g. demographic characteristics and political preferences) impacts on efficiency.

Bacterial meningitis and living conditions

INTRODUCTION: Bacterial meningitis has great social relevance due to its ability to produce sequelae and cause death. It is most frequently found in developing countries, especially among children. Meningococcal meningitis occurs at a high frequency in populations with poor living conditions. This study describes the temporal evolution of bacterial meningitis in Salvador, Brazil, 1995-2009, and verifies the association between its spatial variation and the living conditions of the population. METHODS: This was an ecological study in which the areas of information were classified by an index of living conditions. It examined fluctuations using a trend curve, and the relationship between this index and the spatial distribution of meningitis was verified using simple linear regression. RESULTS: From 1995-2009, there were 3,456 confirmed cases of bacterial meningitis in Salvador. We observed a downward trend during this period, with a yearly incidence of 9.1 cases/100,000 population and fatality of 16.7%. Children aged <5 years old and male were more affected. There was no significant spatial autocorrelation or pattern in the spatial distribution of the disease. The areas with the worst living conditions had higher fatality from meningococcal disease (β = 0.0078117, p < 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: Bacterial meningitis reaches all social strata; however, areas with poor living conditions have a greater proportion of cases that progress to death. This finding reflects the difficulties for ready access and poor quality of medical care faced by these populations.

Compaction quality control on site of earthworks - A comparative study

The capacity to use geologic materials (soil and rock) that are available in the surrounding environment is inherent to the human civilization and has contributed to the evolution of societies throughout the course of history. The use of these materials in the construction of structures such as houses, roads, railways or dams, stirred the improvement of socioeconomic and environmental conditions. Several reports of structural problems on embankments can be found throughout history. A considerable number of those registers can be linked to inadequate compaction, demonstrating the importance of guaranteeing a suitable quality of soil compaction. Various methodologies and specifications of compaction quality control on site of earthworks, based on the fill moisture content and dry unit weight, were developed during the 20th century. Two widely known methodologies are the conventional and nuclear techniques. The conventional methods are based on the use of the field sand cone test (or similar) and sampling of material for laboratory-based testing to evaluate the fill dry unit weight and water content. The nuclear techniques measure both parameters in the field using a nuclear density gauge. A topic under discussion in the geotechnical community, namely in Portugal, is the comparison between the accuracy of the nuclear gauge and sand cone test results for assessing the compaction and density ratio of earth fills, particularly for dams. The main purpose of this dissertation is to compare both of them. The data used were acquired during the compaction quality control operations at the Coutada/Tamujais dam trial embankment and core construction. This is a 25 m high earth dam located in Vila Velha de Rodão, Portugal. To analyse the spatial distribution of the compaction parameters (water content and compaction ratio), a 3D model was also developed. The main results achieved are discussed and finally some considerations are put forward on the suitability of both techniques to ensure fill compaction quality and on additional research to complement the conclusions obtained.