Interrelatedness of grazing livestock with vegetation parameters and farmers’ livelihoods in the Mahafaly region, southwestern Madagascar

The study aims to get deeper insight into the highly extensive system of animal husbandry in the Mahafaly region of southwestern Madagascar. It tries to understand the major drivers for pastoral dynamics, land and resource use along a gradient in altitude and vegetation to consider the area’s high spatial and temporal heterogeneity. The study also analyzes the reproductive performance of local livestock as well as the owners’ culling strategies to determine herd dynamics, opportunities for economic growth, and future potential for rural development. Across seasons, plateau herds from both livestock species covered longer distances (cattle 13.6±3.02 km, goats 12.3±3.48 km) and were found further away from the settlements (cattle 3.1±0.96 km, goats 2.8±0.98 km) than those from the coastal plain (walking_dist: cattle 9.5±3.25 km, goats 9.2±2.57 km; max_dist: cattle 2.6±1.28 km, goats 1.8±0.61 km). Transhumant cattle were detected more vulnerable through limited access to pasture land and water resources compared to local herds. Seasonal water shortage has been confirmed as a key constraint on the plateau while livestock keeping along the coast is more limited by dry season forage availability. However, recent security issues and land use conflicts with local crop farmers are gaining importance and force livestock owners to adapt their traditional grazing management, resulting in spatio-temporal variation of livestock numbers and in the impending risk of local overgrazing and degradation of rangelands. Among the 133 plant species consumed by livestock, 13 were determined of major importance for the animals’ nutrition. The nutritive value and digestibility of the natural forage, as well as its abundance in the coastal zone, substantially decreased over the course of the dry season and emphasized the importance of supplementary forage plants, in particular Euphorbia stenoclada. At the same time, an unsustainable utilization and overexploitation of its wild stocks may raise the pressure on the vegetation and pasture resources within the nearby Tsimanampetsotsa National Park. Age at first parturition was 40.5±0.59 months for cattle and 21.3±0.63 months for goats. Both species showed long parturition intervals (cattle 24.2±0.48 months, goats 12.4±0.30 months), mostly due to the maintenance of poorly performing breeding females within the herds. Reported offspring mortality, however, was low with 2.5% of cattle and 18.8% of goats dying before reaching maturity. The analysis of economic information revealed higher than expected market dynamics, especially for zebus, resulting in annual contribution margins of 33 € per cattle unit and 11 € per goat unit. The application of the PRY Herd Life model to simulate herd development for present management and two alternate scenarios confirmed the economic profitability of the current livestock system and showed potential for further productive and economic development. However, this might be clearly limited by the region’s restricted carrying capacity. Summarizing, this study illustrates the highly extensive and resources-driven character of the livestock system in the Mahafaly region, with herd mobility being a central element to cope with seasonal shortages in forage and water. But additional key drivers and external factors are gaining importance and increasingly affect migration decisions and grazing management. This leads to an increased risk of local overgrazing and overexploitation of natural pasture resources and intensifies the tension between pastoral and conservation interests. At the same time, it hampers the region’s agronomic development, which has not yet been fully exploited. The situation therefore demonstrates the need for practical improvement suggestions and implication measures, such as the systematic forestation of supplemental forage plant species in the coastal zone or a stronger integration of animal husbandry and crop production, to sustain the traditional livestock system without compromising peoples’ livelihoods while at the same time minimizing the pastoral impact on the area’s unique nature and environment.

An overview of the advantages and constraints of coded pattern projection techniques for autonomous navigation

The absolute necessity of obtaining 3D information of structured and unknown environments in autonomous navigation reduce considerably the set of sensors that can be used. The necessity to know, at each time, the position of the mobile robot with respect to the scene is indispensable. Furthermore, this information must be obtained in the least computing time. Stereo vision is an attractive and widely used method, but, it is rather limited to make fast 3D surface maps, due to the correspondence problem. The spatial and temporal correspondence among images can be alleviated using a method based on structured light. This relationship can be directly found codifying the projected light; then each imaged region of the projected pattern carries the needed information to solve the correspondence problem. We present the most significant techniques, used in recent years, concerning the coded structured light method

Hierarchical Prediction Machines and Big Data Analytics

An emerging consensus in cognitive science views the biological brain as a hierarchically-organized predictive processing system. This is a system in which higher-order regions are continuously attempting to predict the activity of lower-order regions at a variety of (increasingly abstract) spatial and temporal scales. The brain is thus revealed as a hierarchical prediction machine that is constantly engaged in the effort to predict the flow of information originating from the sensory surfaces. Such a view seems to afford a great deal of explanatory leverage when it comes to a broad swathe of seemingly disparate psychological phenomena (e.g., learning, memory, perception, action, emotion, planning, reason, imagination, and conscious experience). In the most positive case, the predictive processing story seems to provide our first glimpse at what a unified (computationally-tractable and neurobiological plausible) account of human psychology might look like. This obviously marks out one reason why such models should be the focus of current empirical and theoretical attention. Another reason, however, is rooted in the potential of such models to advance the current state-of-the-art in machine intelligence and machine learning. Interestingly, the vision of the brain as a hierarchical prediction machine is one that establishes contact with work that goes under the heading of 'deep learning'. Deep learning systems thus often attempt to make use of predictive processing schemes and (increasingly abstract) generative models as a means of supporting the analysis of large data sets. But are such computational systems sufficient (by themselves) to provide a route to general human-level analytic capabilities? I will argue that they are not and that closer attention to a broader range of forces and factors (many of which are not confined to the neural realm) may be required to understand what it is that gives human cognition its distinctive (and largely unique) flavour. The vision that emerges is one of 'homomimetic deep learning systems', systems that situate a hierarchically-organized predictive processing core within a larger nexus of developmental, behavioural, symbolic, technological and social influences. Relative to that vision, I suggest that we should see the Web as a form of 'cognitive ecology', one that is as much involved with the transformation of machine intelligence as it is with the progressive reshaping of our own cognitive capabilities.

Habitat Use Patterns of Bobolinks and Savannah Sparrows in the Northeastern United States

In the northeastern United States, grassland birds regularly use agricultural fields as nesting habitat. However, birds that nest in these fields regularly experience nest failure as a result of agricultural practices, such as mowing and grazing. Therefore, information on both spatial and temporal patterns of habitat use is needed to effectively manage these species. We addressed these complex habitat use patterns by conducting point counts during three time intervals between May 21, 2002 and July 2, 2002 in agricultural fields across the Champlain Valley in Vermont and New York. Early in the breeding season, Bobolinks (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) used fields in which the landscape within 2500 m was dominated by open habitats. As mowing began, suitable habitat within 500 m became more important. Savannah Sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis) initially used fields that contained a high proportion of suitable habitat within 500 m. After mowing, features of the field (i.e., size and amount of woody edge) became more important. Each species responded differently to mowing: Savannah Sparrows were equally abundant in mowed and uncut fields, whereas Bobolinks were more abundant in uncut fields. In agricultural areas in the Northeast, large areas (2000 ha) that are mostly nonforested and undeveloped should be targeted for conservation. Within large open areas, smaller patches (80 ha) should be maintained as high-quality, late-cut grassland habitat.

Influence of south Atlantic sea surface temperatures on rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa

It is generally agreed that changing climate variability, and the associated change in climate extremes, may have a greater impact on environmentally vulnerable regions than a changing mean. This research investigates rainfall variability, rainfall extremes, and their associations with atmospheric and oceanic circulations over southern Africa, a region that is considered particularly vulnerable to extreme events because of numerous environmental, social, and economic pressures. Because rainfall variability is a function of scale, high-resolution data are needed to identify extreme events. Thus, this research uses remotely sensed rainfall data and climate model experiments at high spatial and temporal resolution, with the overall aim being to investigate the ways in which sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. Extreme rainfall identification is achieved by the high-resolution microwave/infrared rainfall algorithm dataset. This comprises satellite-derived daily rainfall from 1993 to 2002 and covers southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° latitude–longitude. Extremes are extracted and used with reanalysis data to study possible circulation anomalies associated with extreme rainfall. Anomalously cold SSTs in the central South Atlantic and warm SSTs off the coast of southwestern Africa seem to be statistically related to rainfall extremes. Further, through a number of idealized climate model experiments, it would appear that both decreasing SSTs in the central South Atlantic and increasing SSTs off the coast of southwestern Africa lead to a demonstrable increase in daily rainfall and rainfall extremes over southern Africa, via local effects such as increased convection and remote effects such as an adjustment of the Walker-type circulation.

Water vapor variability in the tropics and its links to dynamics and precipitation

The distribution and variability of water vapor and its links with radiative cooling and latent heating via precipitation are crucial to understanding feedbacks and processes operating within the climate system. Column-integrated water vapor (CWV) and additional variables from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year reanalysis (ERA40) are utilized to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in tropical water vapor over the period 1979–2001. The moisture variability is partitioned between dynamical and thermodynamic influences and compared with variations in precipitation provided by the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The spatial distribution of CWV is strongly determined by thermodynamic constraints. Spatial variability in CWV is dominated by changes in the large-scale dynamics, in particular associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Trends in CWV are also dominated by dynamics rather than thermodynamics over the period considered. However, increases in CWV associated with changes in temperature are significant over the equatorial east Pacific when analyzing interannual variability and over the north and northwest Pacific when analyzing trends. Significant positive trends in CWV tend to predominate over the oceans while negative trends in CWV are found over equatorial Africa and Brazil. Links between changes in CWV and vertical motion fields are identified over these regions and also the equatorial Atlantic. However, trends in precipitation are generally incoherent and show little association with the CWV trends. This may in part reflect the inadequacies of the precipitation data sets and reanalysis products when analyzing decadal variability. Though the dynamic component of CWV is a major factor in determining precipitation variability in the tropics, in some regions/seasons the thermodynamic component cancels its effect on precipitation variability.

The water quality of the LOCAR Pang and Lambourn catchments

The water quality of the Pang and Lambourn, tributaries of the River Thames, in south-eastern England, is described in relation to spatial and temporal dimensions. The river waters are supplied mainly from Chalk-fed aquifer sources and are, therefore, of a calcium-bicarbonate type. The major, minor and trace element chemistry of the rivers is controlled by a combination of atmospheric and pollutant inputs from agriculture and sewage sources superimposed on a background water quality signal linked to geological sources. Water quality does not vary greatly over time or space. However. in detail, there are differences in water quality between the Pang and Lambourn and between sites along the Pang and the Lambourn. These differences reflect hydrological processes, water flow pathways and water quality input fluxes. The Pangs pattern of water quality change is more variable than that of the Lambourn. The flow hydrograph also shows both a cyclical and 'uniform pattern' characteristic of aquifer drainage with, superimposed, a series of 'flashier' spiked responses characteristic of karstic systems. The Lambourn, in contrast, shows simpler features without the 'flashier' responses, The results are discussed in relation to the newly developed UK community programme LOCAR dealing with Lowland Catchment Research. A descriptive and box model structure is provided to describe the key features of water quality variations in relation to soil, unsaturated and groundwater flows and storage both away from and close to the river.

Mediterranean ecosystems: problems and tools for conservation

Mediterranean ecosystems rival tropical ecosystems in terms of plant biodiversity. The Mediterranean Basin (MB) itself hosts 25 000 plant species, half of which are endemic. This rich biodiversity and the complex biogeographical and political issues make conservation a difficult task in the region. Species, habitat, ecosystem and landscape approaches have been used to identify conservation targets at various scales: ie, European, national, regional and local. Conservation decisions require adequate information at the species, community and habitat level. Nevertheless and despite recent improvements/efforts, this information is still incomplete, fragmented and varies from one country to another. This paper reviews the biogeographic data, the problems arising from current conservation efforts and methods for the conservation assessment and prioritization using GIS. GIS has an important role to play for managing spatial and attribute information on the ecosystems of the MB and to facilitate interactions with existing databases. Where limited information is available it can be used for prediction when directly or indirectly linked to externally built models. As well as being a predictive tool today GIS incorporate spatial techniques which can improve the level of information such as fuzzy logic, geostatistics, or provide insight about landscape changes such as 3D visualization. Where there are limited resources it can assist with identifying sites of conservation priority or the resolution of environmental conflicts (scenario building). Although not a panacea, GIS is an invaluable tool for improving the understanding of Mediterranean ecosystems and their dynamics and for practical management in a region that is under increasing pressure from human impact.

Nutrient monitoring, simulation and management within a major lowland UK river system: the Kennet

This paper describes an assessment of the nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics of the River Kennet in the south east of England. The Kennet catchment (1200 km(2)) is a predominantly groundwater fed river impacted by agricultural and sewage sources of nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) pollution. The results from a suite of simulation models are integrated to assess the key spatial and temporal variations in the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) chemistry, and the influence of changes in phosphorous inputs from a Sewage Treatment Works on the macrophyte and epiphyte growth patterns. The models used are the Export Co-efficient model, the Integrated Nitrogen in Catchments model, and a new model of in-stream phosphorus and macrophyte dynamics: the 'Kennet' model. The paper concludes with a discussion on the present state of knowledge regarding the water quality functioning, future research needs regarding environmental modelling and the use of models as management tools for large, nutrient impacted riverine systems. (C) 2003 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Annular variability and eddy-zonal flow interactions in a simplified atmospheric GCM. Part 1: Characterization of high and low frequency behaviour

Experiments have been performed using a simplified, Newtonian forced, global circulation model to investigate how variability of the tropospheric jet can be characterized by examining the combined fluctuations of the two leading modes of annular variability. Eddy forcing of this variability is analyzed in the phase space of the leading modes using the vertically integrated momentum budget. The nature of the annular variability and eddy forcing depends on the time scale. At low frequencies the zonal flow and baroclinic eddies are in quasi equilibrium and anomalies propagate poleward. The eddies are shown primarily to reinforce the anomalous state and are closely balanced by the linear damping, leaving slow evolution as a residual. At high frequencies the flow is strongly evolving and anomalies are initiated on the poleward side of the tropospheric jet and propagate equatorward. The eddies are shown to drive this evolution strongly: eddy location and amplitude reflect the past baroclinicity, while eddy feedback on the zonal flow may be interpreted in terms of wave breaking associated with baroclinic life cycles in lateral shear.

Observational constraints on past attributable warming and predictions of future global warming

This paper investigates the impact of aerosol forcing uncertainty on the robustness of estimates of the twentieth-century warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attribution analyses on three coupled climate models with very different sensitivities and aerosol forcing are carried out. The Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and GFDL R30 models all provide good simulations of twentieth-century global mean temperature changes when they include both anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such good agreement could result from a fortuitous cancellation of errors, for example, by balancing too much ( or too little) greenhouse warming by too much ( or too little) aerosol cooling. Despite a very large uncertainty for estimates of the possible range of sulfate aerosol forcing obtained from measurement campaigns, results show that the spatial and temporal nature of observed twentieth-century temperature change constrains the component of past warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gases to be significantly greater ( at the 5% level) than the observed warming over the twentieth century. The cooling effects of aerosols are detected in all three models. Both spatial and temporal aspects of observed temperature change are responsible for constraining the relative roles of greenhouse warming and sulfate cooling over the twentieth century. This is because there are distinctive temporal structures in differential warming rates between the hemispheres, between land and ocean, and between mid- and low latitudes. As a result, consistent estimates of warming attributable to greenhouse gas emissions are obtained from all three models, and predictions are relatively robust to the use of more or less sensitive models. The transient climate response following a 1% yr(-1) increase in CO2 is estimated to lie between 2.2 and 4 K century(-1) (5-95 percentiles).

Children's caring roles and responsibilities within the family in Africa

In many Sub-Saharan African countries, the care of chronically ill, disabled or elderly relatives is usually regarded as the responsibility of family members, within a broader landscape of often overburdened healthcare systems, the expense of medical fees, very limited access to social protection and policies that emphasise home-based care. Recent studies have demonstrated that children and youth, particularly girls and young women, take on considerable caring roles for chronically ill and elderly relatives in Africa. This article reviews the available research on young people’s caring roles and responsibilities within families affected by chronic illness and disability in Sub-Saharan Africa. I discuss how children’s caring roles challenge global and local constructions of childhood and suggest ways of conceptualising the socio-spatial and embodied dimensions of children’s everyday care work within diverse household forms. I analyse evidence on outcomes of care and children’s resilience in managing their caring responsibilities and examine the complex array of processes that influence whether children take on caring roles within the family. I argue that relational, intergenerational and lifecourse approaches to researching children’s caring responsibilities within the family have considerable potential for future geographical research and could provide further insights into the ways that care is embedded in social relations, cultural norms and structural inequalities operating in different configurations in particular places.

‘We are managing our own lives...’: life transitions and care in sibling-headed households affected by AIDS in Tanzania and Uganda

This paper explores the ways that young people express their agency and negotiate complex lifecourse transitions according to gender, age and inter- and intra-generational norms in sibling-headed households affected by AIDS in East Africa. Based on findings from a qualitative and participatory pilot study in Tanzania and Uganda, I examine young people's socio-spatial and temporal experiences of heading the household and caring for their siblings following their parent's/relative's death. Key dimensions of young people's caring pathways and life transitions are discussed: transitions into sibling care; the ways young people manage changing roles within the family; and the ways that young people are positioned and seek to position themselves within the community. The research reveals the relational and embodied nature of young people's life transitions over time and space. By living together independently, young people constantly reproduce and reconfigure gendered, inter- and intra-generational norms of ‘the family’, transgressing the boundaries of ‘childhood’, ‘youth’ and ‘adulthood’. Although young people take on ‘adult’ responsibilities and demonstrate their competencies in ‘managing their own lives’, this does not necessarily translate into more equal power relations with adults in the community. The research reveals the marginal ‘in-between’ place that young people occupy between local and global discourses of ‘childhood’ and ‘youth’ that construct them as ‘deviant’. Although young people adopt a range of strategies to resist marginalisation and harassment, I argue that constraints of poverty, unequal gender and generational power relations and the emotional impacts of sibling care, stigmatisation and exclusion can undermine their ability to exert agency and control over their sexual relationships, schooling, livelihood strategies and future lifecourse transitions.

Modelling the lava dome extruded at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, August 2005–May 2006. Part II: Rockfall activity and talus deformation

During many lava dome-forming eruptions, persistent rockfalls and the concurrent development of a substantial talus apron around the foot of the dome are important aspects of the observed activity. An improved understanding of internal dome structure, including the shape and internal boundaries of the talus apron, is critical for determining when a lava dome is poised for a major collapse and how this collapse might ensue. We consider a period of lava dome growth at the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from August 2005 to May 2006, during which a 100 × 106 m3 lava dome developed that culminated in a major dome-collapse event on 20 May 2006. We use an axi-symmetrical Finite Element Method model to simulate the growth and evolution of the lava dome, including the development of the talus apron. We first test the generic behaviour of this continuum model, which has core lava and carapace/talus components. Our model describes the generation rate of talus, including its spatial and temporal variation, as well as its post-generation deformation, which is important for an improved understanding of the internal configuration and structure of the dome. We then use our model to simulate the 2005 to 2006 Soufrière Hills dome growth using measured dome volumes and extrusion rates to drive the model and generate the evolving configuration of the dome core and carapace/talus domains. The evolution of the model is compared with the observed rockfall seismicity using event counts and seismic energy parameters, which are used here as a measure of rockfall intensity and hence a first-order proxy for volumes. The range of model-derived volume increments of talus aggraded to the talus slope per recorded rockfall event, approximately 3 × 103–13 × 103 m3 per rockfall, is high with respect to estimates based on observed events. From this, it is inferred that some of the volumetric growth of the talus apron (perhaps up to 60–70%) might have occurred in the form of aseismic deformation of the talus, forced by an internal, laterally spreading core. Talus apron growth by this mechanism has not previously been identified, and this suggests that the core, hosting hot gas-rich lava, could have a greater lateral extent than previously considered.

Influence of agricultural management, sward structure and food resources on grassland field use by birds in lowland England.

Agricultural management of grassland in lowland Britain has changed fundamentally in the last 50 years, resulting in spatial and structural uniformity within the pastoral landscape. The full extent to which these changes may have reduced the suitability of grassland as foraging habitat for birds is unknown. This study investigated the mechanisms by which these changes have impacted on birds and their food supplies. We quantified field use by birds in summer and winter in two grassland areas of lowland England (Devon and Buckinghamshire) over 3 years, relating bird occurrence to the management, sward structure and seed and invertebrate food resources of individual fields. Management intensity was defined in terms of annual nitrogen input. There was no consistent effect of management intensity on total seed head production, although those of grasses generally increased with inputs while forbs were rare throughout. Relationships between management intensity and abundance of soil and epigeal invertebrates were complex. Soil beetle larvae were consistently lower in abundance, and surface-active beetle larvae counts consistently higher, in intensively managed fields. Foliar invertebrates showed more consistent negatively relationships with management intensity. Most bird species occurred at low densities. There were consistent relationships across regions and years between the occurrence of birds and measures of field management. In winter, there was a tendency towards higher occupancy of intensively managed fields by species feeding on soil invertebrates. In summer, there were few such relationships, although many species avoided fields with tall swards. Use of fields by birds was generally not related to measures of seed or invertebrate food abundance. While granivorous species were perhaps too rare to detect a relationship, in insectivores the strong negative relationships (in summer) with sward height suggested that access to food may be the critical factor. While it appears that intensification of grassland management has been deleterious to the summer food resources of insectivorous birds that use insects living within the grass sward, intensification may have been beneficial to several species in winter through the enhancement of soil invertebrates. Synthesis and applications. We suggest that attempts to restore habitat quality for birds in grassland landscapes need to create a range of management intensities and sward structures at the field and farm scales. A greater understanding of methods to enhance prey accessibility, as well as abundance, for insectivorous birds is required.