A Benefit-Risk Assessment Framework for Development of Clinical Guidelines in Diagnostic Radiology

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2015-12

Cross-Industry Product Diversification and Contagion in Risk and Return: The Case of Bank-Insurance and Insurance-Bank Takeovers

We investigate the impact of domestic/international bancassurance deals on the risk-return profiles of announcing and non-announcing banks and insurers within a GARCH model. Bank-insurance deals produce intra- and inter-industry contagion in both risk and return, with larger deals producing greater contagion. Bidder banks and peers experience positive abnormal returns, with the effects on insurer peers being stronger than those on bank peers. Insurance-bank deals produce insignificant excess returns for bidder and peer insurers and positive valuations for peer banks. Following the deal, the bank bidders’ idiosyncratic (systematic) risk falls (increases), while insurance bidders exhibit a lower systematic risk and maintain their idiosyncratic risk.

Separating the effects of ethnicity and socio-economic status on sleep practices of 6- to 7-month-old infants

Infant sleep undergoes significant re-organization throughout the first 12 months of life, with sleep quality having significant consequences for infant learning and cognitive development. While there has been great interest in the neural basis and developmental trajectories of infant sleep in general, relatively little is known about individual differences in infant sleep and the socio-economic and cultural sources of that variability. We investigated this using questionnaire sleep data in a large, unique multi-ethnic sample of 6-7 month-olds (n=174), with families from South Asian ethnic groups in the UK (Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi) being especially well represented. Consistent with previous data from less variable samples, no effects of SES on sleep latency or nocturnal sleep duration emerged. However, perinatal risk factors and ethnic differences did predict daytime sleep, sleep fragmentation and sleep-onset time. While these results should be interpreted with caution due to several limitations, they likely demonstrate that even when socio-economic status and ethnicity are much less confounded than in previous studies, they have a surprisingly limited impact on individual differences in sleep patterns in young infants.

Effects of early life permethrin exposure on spatial working memory and on monoamine levels in different brain areas of pre-senescent rats

Pesticide exposure during brain development could represent an important risk factor for the onset of neurodegenerative diseases. Previous studies investigated the effect of permethrin (PERM) administered at 34 mg/kg, a dose close to the no observable adverse effect level (NOAEL) from post natal day (PND) 6 to PND 21 in rats. Despite the PERM dose did not elicited overt signs of toxicity (i.e. normal body weight gain curve), it was able to induce striatal neurodegeneration (dopamine and Nurr1 reduction, and lipid peroxidation increase). The present study was designed to characterize the cognitive deficits in the current animal model. When during late adulthood PERM treated rats were tested for spatial working memory performances in a T-maze-rewarded alternation task they took longer to choose for the correct arm in comparison to age matched controls. No differences between groups were found in anxiety-like state, locomotor activity, feeding behavior and spatial orientation task. Our findings showing a selective effect of PERM treatment on the T-maze task point to an involvement of frontal cortico-striatal circuitry rather than to a role for the hippocampus. The predominant disturbances concern the dopamine (DA) depletion in the striatum and, the serotonin (5-HT) and noradrenaline (NE) unbalance together with a hypometabolic state in the medial prefrontal cortex area. In the hippocampus, an increase of NE and a decrease of DA were observed in PERM treated rats as compared to controls. The concentration of the most representative marker for pyrethroid exposure (3-phenoxybenzoic acid) measured in the urine of rodents 12 h after the last treatment was 41.50 µ/L and it was completely eliminated after 96 h.

Plaster body wrap: effects on abdominal fat

Background Abdominal fat is associated with metabolic disorders, leading to cardiovascular risk factors and numerous diseases. This study aimed to analyze the effect of plaster body wrap in combination with aerobic exercise on abdominal fat. Methods Nineteen female volunteers were randomly divided into intervention group (IG; n = 10) performing aerobic exercise with plaster body wrap, and control group (CG; n = 9) performing only exercise. Subcutaneous and visceral fat were measured using ultrasound; subcutaneous fat was also estimated on analysis of skinfolds and abdominal perimeters. Results At the end of the 10-sessions protocol, the IG demonstrated a significant decrease (p ≤ 0.05) in subcutaneous fat at the left anterior superior iliac spine (ASIS) level and in iliac crest perimeter measurements. A large intervention effect size strength (0.80) was found in subcutaneous fat below the navel and a moderate effect size strength on the vertical abdominal skinfold (0.62) and the perimeter of the most prominent abdominal point (0.57). Comparing the initial and final data of each group, the IG showed a significant decrease in numerous variables including visceral and subcutaneous fat above and below the navel measured by ultrasound (p ≤ 0.05). Conclusion Plaster body wrap in combination with aerobic exercise seems to be effective for abdominal fat reduction.

The simple economics of risk-sharing agreements between the NHS and the pharmaceutical industry

The Janssen-Cilag proposal for a risk-sharing agreement regarding bortezomib received a welcome signal from NICE. The Office of Fair Trading report included risk-sharing agreements as an available tool for the National Health Service. Nonetheless, recent discussions have somewhat neglected the economic fundamentals underlying risk-sharing agreements. We argue here that risk-sharing agreements, although attractive due to the principle of paying by results, also entail risks. Too many patients may be put under treatment even with a low success probability. Prices are likely to be adjusted upward, in anticipation of future risk-sharing agreements between the pharmaceutical company and the third-party payer. An available instrument is a verification cost per patient treated, which allows obtaining the first-best allocation of patients to the new treatment, under the risk sharing agreement. Overall, the welfare effects of risk-sharing agreements are ambiguous, and care must be taken with their use.

Effects of prescribed fire on surface soil in a Pinus pinaster plantation, northern Portugal

In order to decrease the risk of severe wildfire, prescribed fire has recently been adopted in Portugal and elsewhere in the Mediterranean as a major tool for reducing the fuel load instead of manual or mechanical removal of vegetation. There has been some research into its impact on soils in shrublands and grasslands, but to date little research has been conducted in forested areas in the region. As a result, the impact of prescribed fire on the physico-chemical soil characteristics of forest soils has been assumed to be minimal, but this has not been demonstrated. In this study, we present the results of a monitoring campaign of a detailed pre- and post-prescribed fire assessment of soil properties in a long-unburnt P. pinaster plantation, NW Portugal. The soil characteristics examined were pH, total porosity, bulk density, moisture content, organic matter content and litter/ash quantity. The results show that there was no significant impact on the measured soil properties, the only effect being confined to minor changes in the upper 1 cm of soil. We conclude that provided the fire is carried out according to strict guidelines in P. pinaster forest, a minimal impact on soil properties can be expected.

Modelling the Contribution of 40K, 232Th and 226Ra to Radiation Dose and Risk from Airborne Discharges of Coal-Fired Power Plants

Coal contains trace elements and naturally occurring radionuclides such as 40K, 232Th, 238U. When coal is burned, minerals, including most of the radionuclides, do not burn and concentrate in the ash several times in comparison with their content in coal. Usually, a small fraction of the fly ash produced (2-5%) is released into the atmosphere. The activities released depend on many factors (concentration in coal, ash content and inorganic matter of the coal, combustion temperature, ratio between bottom and fly ash, filtering system). Therefore, marked differences should be expected between the by-products produced and the amount of activity discharged (per unit of energy produced) from different coal-fired power plants. In fact, the effects of these releases on the environment due to ground deposition have been received some attention but the results from these studies are not unanimous and cannot be understood as a generic conclusion for all coal-fired power plants. In this study, the dispersion modelling of natural radionuclides was carried out to assess the impact of continuous atmospheric releases from a selected coal plant. The natural radioactivity of the coal and the fly ash were measured and the dispersion was modelled by a Gaussian plume estimating the activity concentration at different heights up to a distance of 20 km in several wind directions. External and internal doses (inhalation and ingestion) and the resulting risk were calculated for the population living within 20 km from the coal plant. In average, the effective dose is lower than the ICRP’s limit and the risk is lower than the U.S. EPA’s limit. Therefore, in this situation, the considered exposure does not pose any risk. However, when considering the dispersion in the prevailing wind direction, these values are significant due to an increase of 232Th and 226Ra concentrations in 75% and 44%, respectively.

Genotoxic effects in occupational exposure to formaldehyde: A study in anatomy and pathology laboratories and formaldehyde-resins production

ABSTRACT – Background: According to the Report on Carcinogens, formaldehyde ranks 25th in the overall U.S. chemical production, with more than 5 million tons produced each year. Given its economic importance and widespread use, many people are exposed to formaldehyde environmentally and/or occupationally. Presently, the International Agency for Research on Cancer classifies formaldehyde as carcinogenic to humans (Group 1), based on sufficient evidence in humans and in experimental animals. Manyfold in vitro studies clearly indicated that formaldehyde can induce genotoxic effects in proliferating cultured mammalian cells. Furthermore, some in vivo studies have found changes in epithelial cells and in peripheral blood lymphocytes related to formaldehyde exposure. Methods: A study was carried out in Portugal, using 80 workers occupationally exposed to formaldehyde vapours: 30 workers from formaldehyde and formaldehyde-based resins production factory and 50 from 10 pathology and anatomy laboratories. A control group of 85 non-exposed subjects was considered. Exposure assessment was performed by applying simultaneously two techniques of air monitoring: NIOSH Method 2541 and Photo Ionization Detection equipment with simultaneously video recording. Evaluation of genotoxic effects was performed by application of micronucleus test in exfoliated epithelial cells from buccal mucosa and peripheral blood lymphocytes. Results: Time-weighted average concentrations not exceeded the reference value (0.75 ppm) in the two occupational settings studied. Ceiling concentrations, on the other hand, were higher than reference value (0.3 ppm) in both. The frequency of micronucleus in peripheral blood lymphocytes and in epithelial cells was significantly higher in both exposed groups than in the control group (p < 0.001). Moreover, the frequency of micronucleus in peripheral blood lymphocytes was significantly higher in the laboratories group than in the factory workers (p < 0.05). A moderate positive correlation was found between duration of occupational exposure to formaldehyde (years of exposure) and micronucleus frequency in peripheral blood lymphocytes (r = 0.401; p < 0.001) and in epithelial cells (r = 0.209; p < 0.01). Conclusions: The population studied is exposed to high peak concentrations of formaldehyde with a long-term exposure. These two aspects, cumulatively, can be the cause of the observed genotoxic endpoint effects. The association of these cytogenetic effects with formaldehyde exposure gives important information to risk assessment process and may also be used to assess health risks for exposed worker

Effects of Soil Compaction and Organic Carbon Content on Preferential Flow in Loamy Field Soils

Abstract: Preferential flow and transport through macropores affect plant water use efficiency and enhance leaching of agrochemicals and the transport of colloids, thereby increasing the risk for contamination of groundwater resources. The effects of soil compaction, expressed in terms of bulk density (BD), and organic carbon (OC) content on preferential flow and transport were investigated using 150 undisturbed soil cores sampled from 15 × 15–m grids on two field sites. Both fields had loamy textures, but one site had significantly higher OC content. Leaching experiments were conducted in each core by applying a constant irrigation rate of 10 mm h−1 with a pulse application of tritium tracer. Five percent tritium mass arrival times and apparent dispersivities were derived from each of the tracer breakthrough curves and correlated with texture, OC content, and BD to assess the spatial distribution of preferential flow and transport across the investigated fields. Soils from both fields showed strong positive correlations between BD and preferential flow. Interestingly, the relationships between BD and tracer transport characteristics were markedly different for the two fields, although the relationship between BD and macroporosity was nearly identical. The difference was likely caused by the higher contents of fines and OC at one of the fields leading to stronger aggregation, smaller matrix permeability, and a more pronounced pipe-like pore system with well-aligned macropores.

Effects of Environmental Organochlorine Pesticides on Human Breast Cancer: Putative Involvement on Invasive Cell Ability

Human exposure to persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is a certainty, even to long banned pesticides like o,p′-dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (o,p′-DDT), and its metabolites p,p′-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (p,p′-DDE), and p,p′-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (p,p′-DDD). POPs are known to be particularly toxic and have been associated with endocrine-disrupting effects in several mammals, including humans even at very low doses. As environmental estrogens, they could play a critical role in carcinogenesis, such as in breast cancer. With the purpose of evaluating their effect on breast cancer biology, o,p′-DDT, p,p′-DDE, and p,p′-DDD (50–1000 nM) were tested on two human breast adenocarcinoma cell lines: MCF-7 expressing estrogen receptor (ER) α and MDA-MB-231 negative for ERα, regarding cell proliferation and viability in addition to their invasive potential. Cell proliferation and viability were not equally affected by these compounds. In MCF-7 cells, the compounds were able to decrease cell proliferation and viability. On the other hand, no evident response was observed in treated MDA-MB-231 cells. Concerning the invasive potential, the less invasive cell line, MCF-7, had its invasion potential significantly induced, while the more invasive cell line MDA-MB-231, had its invasion potential dramatically reduced in the presence of the tested compounds. Altogether, the results showed that these compounds were able to modulate several cancer-related processes, namely in breast cancer cell lines, and underline the relevance of POP exposure to the risk of cancer development and progression, unraveling distinct pathways of action of these compounds on tumor cell biology.

Effects of prescribed fire on surface soil in a Pinus pinaster plantation, northern Portugal

In order to decrease the risk of severe wildfire, prescribed fire has recently been adopted in Portugal and elsewhere in the Mediterranean as a major tool for reducing the fuel load instead of manual or mechanical removal of vegetation. There has been some research into its impact on soils in shrublands and grasslands, but to date little research has been conducted in forested areas in the region. As a result, the impact of prescribed fire on the physico-chemical soil characteristics of forest soils has been assumed to be minimal, but this has not been demonstrated. In this study, we present the results of a monitoring campaign of a detailed pre- and post-prescribed fire assessment of soil properties in a long-unburnt P. pinaster plantation, NW Portugal. The soil characteristics examined were pH, total porosity, bulk density, moisture content, organic matter content and litter/ash quantity. The results show that there was no significant impact on the measured soil properties, the only effect being confined to minor changes in the upper 1 cm of soil. We conclude that provided the fire is carried out according to strict guidelines in P. pinaster forest, a minimal impact on soil properties can be expected.

Effects of the Mediterranean diet and exercise in subjects with coronary artery disease

Introduction The association of the Mediterranean diet and exercise appears to have a protective role, reducing cardiovascular risk. This study investigated the effects of education sessions on the Mediterranean diet and an exercise program in modifying eating behaviors, body composition and abdominal fat. Methods An experimental study was performed on 20 subjects with known coronary heart disease randomly assigned to experimental (n=10) and control (n=10) groups. Both groups received education sessions on the Mediterranean diet, but the experimental group also followed an eight-week program of specific exercises. A semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire was administered to analyze food intake, bioimpedance was used to measure weight, fat mass and lean mass, and waist circumference was measured to calculate waist-to-height ratio. Results After eight weeks, protein (p<0.05) and cholesterol (p<0.05) intake in the experimental group had decreased significantly compared with the control group. Between the beginning and end of the study, there were significant decreases in the control group in carbohydrate (p<0.05) and saturated fat intake (p<0.05). In both groups the percentage of total fat (p<0.05) and fat mass (p<0.05) was significantly decreased. In the experimental group the waist-to-height ratio was significantly reduced (p<0.05). Conclusion The Mediterranean diet reduced carbohydrate and saturated fat intake, reflected in reduced fat mass. The association of the exercise program showed additional benefits in reduction of protein and cholesterol intake and abdominal fat.

Effects of microcurrents and physical exercise on the abdominal fat in patients with coronary artery disease

Introduction Coronary artery disease is associated with decreased levels of physical activity, contributing to increases in abdominal fat and consequently increasing metabolic risk. The innovative use of microcurrents may be an effective method to increase the lipolytic rate of abdominal adipocytes. This study aimed to investigate the effects of utilizing microcurrents in a home-based exercise program in subjects with coronary artery disease to assess changes in total, subcutaneous and visceral abdominal adipose tissue. Methods This controlled trial included 44 subjects with myocardial infarction, randomly divided into Intervention Group 1 (IG1; n = 16), Intervention Group 2 (IG2; n = 12) and Control Group (CG; n = 16). IG1 performed a specific exercise program at home during 8 weeks, and IG2 additionally used microcurrents on the abdominal region before the exercise program. All groups were given health education sessions. Computed tomography was used to evaluate abdominal, subcutaneous and visceral fat, accelerometers to measure habitual physical activity and the semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire for dietary intake. Results After 8 weeks, IG2 showed a significantly decrease in subcutaneous fat (p ≤ 0.05) when compared to CG. Concerning visceral fat, both intervention groups showed a significant decrease in comparison to the CG (p ≤ 0.05). No significant changes were found between groups on dietary intake and habitual physical activity, except for sedentary activity that decreased significantly for IG2 in comparison with CG (p ≤ 0.05). Conclusion This specific home-based exercise program using microcurrent therapy for individuals with coronary artery disease showed improvements in visceral and subcutaneous abdominal fat.

Acute Kidney Injury after Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: Risk Factors and Outcomes. Proposal for a Predictive Model

Objectives: To characterize the epidemiology and risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI) after pediatric cardiac surgery in our center, to determine its association with poor short-term outcomes, and to develop a logistic regression model that will predict the risk of AKI for the study population. Methods: This single-center, retrospective study included consecutive pediatric patients with congenital heart disease who underwent cardiac surgery between January 2010 and December 2012. Exclusion criteria were a history of renal disease, dialysis or renal transplantation. Results: Of the 325 patients included, median age three years (1 day---18 years), AKI occurred in 40 (12.3%) on the first postoperative day. Overall mortality was 13 (4%), nine of whom were in the AKI group. AKI was significantly associated with length of intensive care unit stay, length of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital death (p<0.01). Patients’ age and postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were included in the logistic regression model as predictor variables. The model accurately predicted AKI in this population, with a maximum combined sensitivity of 82.1% and specificity of 75.4%. Conclusions: AKI is common and is associated with poor short-term outcomes in this setting. Younger age and higher postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were powerful predictors of renal injury in this population. The proposed model could be a useful tool for risk stratification of these patients.