992 resultados para retrospective forecast test


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INTRODUCTION: A retrospective study was conducted to assess the occurrence of blood donations that were ineligible due to Chagas disease infection from 1995 to 2009 at the Uberaba Regional Blood Center (HRU), Brazil, verify the tendency of this ineligibility, and describe the epidemiologic profile of the donors. METHODS: Retrospective studies of serological ineligibility due to Chagas disease, statistical analysis by means of the chi-square test and odds ratio, study of the tendencies using a dispersion graph and the linear correlation coefficient (r) were performed. RESULTS: In the period under study, a 0.2% serum prevalence of ineligibility due to Chagas disease was found, with a significant drop in ineligible donations from 2001 to 2009. Among the serum positive-donors, there was a significant predominance among those aged 30 years or above and non-single individuals. CONCLUSIONS: The results show a rate of occurrence that is lower than that described in literature, as well as a progressive drop during the 15 years under assessment. Such results are a consequence of systematic combat of the vector since the 70s and the progressive and consistent increase of returning donors, resulting in a drop of the contamination risk factor by means of blood transfusion and in the improvement of the quality of hemotherapy practices in the HRU.

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INTRODUTION: A major concern with the visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is its high lethality rate, even with proper treatment. Low age, prior malnutrition, disease duration prior to diagnosis, severe anemia, fever for more than 60 days, diarrhea and jaundice are known poor prognostic factors. The goals of this study are to describe the clinical and laboratory characteristics of VL among children under 12 years of age and to identify the factors associated with VL poor outcome. METHODS: Two hundred and fifty children under 12 years of age with confirmed VL admitted to Hospital João Paulo II (FHEMIG), Belo Horizonte, Brazil, between January 2001 and December 2005 were evaluated retrospectively. The primary outcome was the poor clinical evolution: sepsis, and/or pneumonia, and/or urinary tract infection, and/or of bleeding (expect epistaxis), and/or severe neutropenia (neutrophil < 500 cells/mm3). Odds ratio (crude and adjusted) and its 95% confidence interval for each variable were calculated. Values less than 0.05 were considered significant. RESULTS: Average age was 3.3 years (3.6 months-11.6 years), 71.2% were younger than 5 years and 47.2% lived in Metropolitan Area of Belo Horizonte. The mean fatality rate was 3.6%. Sixty-six (26.4%) patients presented poor evolution. After a multivariate analysis, age <18 months, abnormal respiratory physical examination on hospital admission, and platelets <85,000/mm3 remained associated with increased chance of poor evolution. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that patients aged between 12 and 18 months, with platelet counts bellow 85,000/mm3, and respiratory abnormalities at admission should be considered potentially severe.

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Introduction This study evaluated the efficacy of retreatment of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) with regard to treatment outcomes and antimicrobial susceptibility testing (ST) profiles. Methods This retrospective cohort study analyzed 144 patients treated at a referral hospital in Brazil. All of them had undergone prior treatment, were smear-positive for TB and received a standardized retreatment regimen. Fisher's 2-tailed exact test and the χ2 test were used; RRs and 95% CIs were calculated using univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression. Results The patients were cured in 84 (58.3%) cases. Failure was associated with relapsed treatment and abandonment (n=34). Culture tests were obtained for 103 (71.5%) cases; 70 (48.6%) had positive results. ST results were available for 67 (46.5%) cases; the prevalence of acquired resistance was 53.7%. There were no significant differences between those who achieved or not therapeutic success (p=0.988), despite being sensitive or resistant to 1 or more drugs. Rifampicin resistance was independently associated with therapeutic failure (OR: 4.4, 95% CI:1.12-17.37, p=0.034). For those cases in which cultures were unavailable, a 2nd model without this information was built. In this, return after abandonment was significantly associated with retreatment failure (OR: 3.59, 95% CI:1.17-11.06, p=0.026). Conclusions In this cohort, the general resistance profile appeared to have no influence on treatment outcome, except in cases of rifampicin resistance. The form of reentry was another independent predictor of failure. The use of bacterial culture identification and ST in TB management must be re-evaluated. The recommendations for different susceptibility profiles must also be improved.

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Introduction Dengue is prevalent in many tropical and sub-tropical regions. The clinical diagnosis of dengue is still complex, and not much data are available. This work aimed at assessing the diagnostic accuracy of the tourniquet test in patients with suspected dengue infection and its positivity in different classifications of this disease as reported to the Information System for Notifiable Disease in Belo Horizonte, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil between 2001 and 2006. Methods Cross-section analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of the tourniquet test for dengue, using IgM-anti-DENV ELISA as a gold standard. Results We selected 9,836 suspected cases, of which 41.1% were confirmed to be dengue. Classic dengue was present in 95.8%, dengue with complications in 2.5% and dengue hemorrhagic fever in 1.7%. The tourniquet test was positive in 16.9% of classic dengue cases, 61.7% of dengue cases with complications and 82.9% of cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever. The sensitivity and specificity of the tourniquet test were 19.1% and 86.4%, respectively. Conclusions A positive tourniquet test can be a valuable tool to support diagnosis of dengue where laboratory tests are not available. However, the absence of a positive test should not be read as the absence of infection. In addition, the tourniquet test was demonstrated to be an indicator of dengue severity.

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The catastrophic disruption in the USA financial system in the wake of the financial crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to launch a Quantitative Easing (QE) programme in late 2008. In line with Pesaran and Smith (2014), I use a policy effectiveness test to assess whether this massive asset purchase programme was effective in stimulating the economic activity in the USA. Specifically, I employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), in order to obtain a counterfactual for the USA real GDP growth rate. Using data from 1983Q1 to 2009Q4, the results show that the beneficial effects of QE appear to be weak and rather short-lived. The null hypothesis of policy ineffectiveness is not rejected, which suggests that QE did not have a meaningful impact on output growth.

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Introduction Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) may improve the early detection of visceral leishmaniasis (VL), but their real-world performance requires additional study. Therefore, we evaluated the performance of an rK39-based RDT (Kalazar Detect™) for the detection of VL in an endemic, large urban area. Methods Data were collected from a registry of rK39 RDT performed at 11 emergency care units in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, and from a national database of reportable communicable diseases of the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN). Results The rapid rK39 test was performed in 476 patients, with 114 (23.9%) positive results. The analysis of rK39 RDT performance was based on 381 (80%) cases reported to the SINAN database, of which 145 (38.1%) were confirmed cases. Estimates for sensitivity and specificity were 72.4% (95% CI: 64.6-79%) and 99.6% (95%CI: 97.6-99.9%), respectively. Positive and negative predictive values were estimated at 99.1% (95%CI: 94.9-99.8%) and 85.5% (95%CI: 80.8-89.1%), respectively. In addition, close agreement between the rK39 RDT and indirect immunofluorescence was observed. Conclusions In summary, the rK39 RDT showed a high specificity but only moderate sensitivity. In endemic areas for VL, treatment may be considered in cases with clinical manifestations and a positive rK39 RDT, but those with a negative test should be subjected to further investigation.

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Introduction Leprosy is a chronic disease that affects skin and peripheral nerves. Disease complications include reactional episodes and physical impairment. One World Health Organization (WHO) goal of leprosy programs is to decrease the number of grade 2 impairment diagnoses by 2015. This study aims to evaluate clinical factors associated with the occurrence of leprosy reactions and physical impairment in leprosy patients. Methods We conducted a retrospective study of data from medical records of patients followed in two important centers for the treatment of leprosy in Aracaju, Sergipe, Brazil, from 2005 to 2011. We used the chi-square test to analyze associations between the following categorical variables: gender, age, operational classification, clinical forms, leprosy reactions, corticosteroid treatment, and physical impairment at the diagnosis and after cure. Clinical variables associated with multibacillary leprosy and/or reactional episodes and the presence of any grade of physical impairment after cure were evaluated using the logistic regression model. Results We found that men were more affected by multibacillary forms, reactional episodes, and grade 2 physical impairment at diagnosis. Leprosy reactions were detected in a total of 40% of patients and all were treated with corticosteroids. However, physical impairment was observed in 29.8% of the patients analyzed at the end of the treatment and our multivariate analysis associated a low dose and short period of corticosteroid treatment with persistence of physical impairments. Conclusions Physical impairment should receive an increased attention before and after treatment, and adequate treatment should be emphasized.

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Introduction: Paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM) is a systemic infection caused by the fungus Paracoccidioides brasiliensis. PCM is considered one of the most important systemic mycoses in Latin America. Methods: This is a clinical, epidemiological, retrospective, quantitative study of PCM cases in patients attending the National Health Service in the State of Rondônia in 1997-2012. The examined variables included sex, age group, year of diagnosis, education level, profession, place of residence, diagnostic test, prior treatment, medication used, comorbidities and case progress. Results: During the study period, 2,163 PCM cases were registered in Rondônia, and the mean annual incidence was 9.4/100,000 people. The municipalities with the highest rates were located in the southeastern region of Rondônia, and the towns of Pimenteiras do Oeste and Espigão do Oeste had the highest rates in the state, which were 39.1/100,000 and 37.4/100,000 people, respectively. Among all cases, 90.2% and 9.8% were observed in men and women, respectively, and most cases (58.2%) were observed in patients aged between 40 and 59 years. Itraconazole was used to treat 91.6% (1,771) of cases, followed by sulfamethoxazole in combination with trimethoprim (4.4% [85] of cases). One hundred thirty-one (6%) patients died. Conclusions: The State of Rondônia has a high incidence of PCM, and the municipalities in the southeastern region of the state were found to have the highest incidence rates of this disease. Our findings suggest that Rondônia is the state in the northern region with the highest mortality rate for PCM.

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RESUMO: Raional: A persistência à terapêutica é o tempo em qualquer antidiabético oral, desde o seu início até à descontinuação de todas as medicações ou até ao fim do período do estudo. Os objetivos deste estudo foi a análise da persistência à terapêutica no segundo e terceiro anos após início do tratamento em doentes adultos diagnosticados na região de Lisboa e Vale do Tejo e determinar o efeito de determinadas variáveis na persistência a longo prazo. Métodos: Um estudo retrospetivo não interventivo foi desenhado com base nos dados a obter do SIARS (prescrições e aquisições na farmácia) e Pordata. A persistência foi quantificada como a percentagem de doentes que continuam a adquirir pelo menos um antidiabético oral ao segundo e terceiro anos após a compra da primeira receita. A associação entre a persistência e o segundo e terceiro anos com cada uma das co-variáveis foi aferido pelo teste qui-quadrado e os odd ratios foram calculados com recurso a um modelo de regressão logística. Resultados: A persistência à terapêutica obtida foi de 80% e 62% para o segundo e terceiro anos após início da terapêutica. Odd ratios para primeiro e segundo ano: número de grupos farmacoterapêuticos diferentes (OR = 2.167, 1.807 – 2.598, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.863, 1.621 – 2.142, p = 0.000); idade (OR = 0.914, 0.772 – 1.081, p = 0.294 / OR = 0.875, 0.764 – 1.002, p = 0.054); sexo (OR = 1.163, 0.983 – 1.377, p = 0.079); número de diferentes prescritores (OR = 3.594, 3.030 – 4.262, p = 0.000 / OR = 2.167, 1.886 – 2.491, p = 0.000); instituição de prescrição (OR = 0.725, 0.698 – 0.753, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.683, 0.650 – 0.717, p = 0.000); grupo farmacoterapêutico (OR = 1.056, 1.043 – 1.069, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.077, 1.060 – 1.095, p = 0.000); relação com o médico (OR = 0.834, 0.816 – 0.852, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.799, 0.777 – 0.821, p = 0.000) e custo médio mensal por grupo farmacoterapêutico (OR = 0.954, 0.942 – 0.968, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.930, 0.914 – 0.947, p = 0.000). Conclusões: O valor da persistência à terapêutica no segundo ano é ligeiramente acima do que é mencionado na literatura e não existem dados para comparar os resultados do terceiro ano. Relativamente ao efeito das co-variáveis no segundo e terceiro anos após o início do tratamento, os resultados são sobreponíveis, sendo que o sexo não está associado à persistência ao terceiro ano.----------------------------------ABSTRACT: Background: Therapy persistence is the time on any antidiabetic medication, from initiation of therapy to discontinuation of all medications or the end of the study period. The aim of the study was to analyse the therapy persistence in the second and third years after treatment initiation in newly diagnosed adult patients in the Lisbon and Tagus Valley region and to determine the effect of several co-variables in the long term persistence. Methods: A retrospective non-interventional study based on SIARS data (drug prescriptions and acquisitions) and Pordata was designed. Persistence was quantified as the percentage of patients that continued to purchase at least one type of antidiabetic at year 2 and 3 after the date of first prescription acquisition. Association between persistence at second and third years with each of the other co-variables were verified by using the Chi-Square test and odds ratio were calculated using a regression logistic model. Results: Therapy persistence obtained was 80% and 62% for the second and third years after treatment initiation. Odd ratios for second and third years: number of different pharmacotherapeutic groups (OR = 2.167, 1.807 – 2.598, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.863, 1.621 – 2.142, p = 0.000); age (OR = 0.914, 0.772 – 1.081, p = 0.294 / OR = 0.875, 0.764 – 1.002, p = 0.054); gender (OR = 1.163, 0.983 – 1.377, p = 0.079); number of different prescribers (OR = 3.594, 3.030 – 4.262, p = 0.000 / OR = 2.167, 1.886 – 2.491, p = 0.000); institution of prescription (OR = 0.725, 0.698 – 0.753, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.683, 0.650 – 0.717, p = 0.000); pharmacotherapeutic group (OR = 1.056, 1.043 – 1.069, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.077, 1.060 – 1.095, p = 0.000); relationship with the physician (OR = 0.834, 0.816 – 0.852, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.799, 0.777 – 0.821, p = 0.000) and average cost per month and per pharmacotherapeutic group (OR = 0.954, 0.942 – 0.968, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.930, 0.914 – 0.947, p = 0.000). Conclusions: Second year therapy persistence value is slightly above of what is referenced in literature and no data was found to compare the third year value. Regarding the effect of the co-variables analysed at second and third years after treatment initiation, the results were overlapping with gender being not associated with persistence at the third year.

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Introduction. The genera Enterococcus, Staphylococcus and Streptococcus are recognized as important Gram-positive human pathogens. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of Vitek 2 in identifying Gram-positive cocci and their antimicrobial susceptibilities. Methods. One hundred four isolates were analyzed to determine the accuracy of the automated system for identifying the bacteria and their susceptibility to oxacillin and vancomycin. Results. The system correctly identified 77.9% and 97.1% of the isolates at the species and genus levels, respectively. Additionally, 81.8% of the Vitek 2 results agreed with the known antimicrobial susceptibility profiles. Conclusion. Vitek 2 correctly identified the commonly isolated strains; however, the limitations of the method may lead to ambiguous findings.

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Introduction Despite the known importance of Clostridium difficile as a nosocomial pathogen, few studies regarding Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in Brazil have been conducted. To date, the diagnostic tests that are available on the Brazilian market for the diagnosis of CDI have not been evaluated. The aim of this study was to compare the performances of four commercial methods for the diagnosis of CDI in patients from a university hospital in Brazil. Methods Three enzyme immunoassays (EIAs) and one nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) were evaluated against a cytotoxicity assay (CTA) and toxigenic culture (TC). Stool samples from 92 patients with suspected CDI were used in this study. Results Twenty-five (27.2%) of 92 samples were positive according to the CTA, and 23 (25%) were positive according to the TC. All EIAs and the NAAT test demonstrated sensitivities between 59 and 68% and specificities greater than 91%. Conclusions All four methods exhibited low sensitivities for the diagnosis of CDI, which could lead to a large number of false-negative results, an increased risk of cross-infection to other patients, and overtreatment with empirical antibiotics.

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The Free and Cued Selective Reminding Test (FCSRT) is a memory test that controls attention and acquisition, by providing category cues in the learning process. Because it enables an assessment of memory not confounded by normal age-related changes in cognition and a high accuracy on Alzheimer's disease (AD) evaluation, it has been suggested by the International Working Group on AD. Our aim was to assess the construct related validity of the FCSRT in the AD spectrum disorders.

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In the past two decades, zebrafish (Danio rerio)-based research has contributed to significant scientific advances. Still, husbandry and health programs did not evolve at the same pace, as evidenced by the absence of general guidelines. Health monitoring is essential to animal welfare, to permit animal exchanges across facilities, to contribute to robust experimental results, and for data reproducibility. In this study, we report a health program implemented in a zebrafish research facility to prevent, monitor, and control pathogen, and disease dissemination. This program includes quarantine, routine health screening of sentinels, and nonroutine screenings of retired animals and sick/moribund individuals. An extensive list of clinical signs, lesions, and pathogens was monitored based on: daily observation of fish, necropsy, histology, and bacterial culture. The results indicate that the combined analysis of sentinels with the evaluation of sick/moribund animals enables a comprehensive description not only of pathogen prevalence but also of clinical and histopathologic lesions of resident animals. The establishment of a quarantine program revealed to be effective in the reduction of Pseudoloma neurophilia frequency in the main aquaria room. Finally, characterization of the colony health status based on this multiapproach program shows a low prevalence of lesions and pathogens in the facility.

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Introduction Hantavirus infections have been described in several regions in Brazil through seroepidemiological studies. Usually, populations are associated with rural and wild environment mainly due to close contact to species of Sigmodontinae rodents, considered hantavirus reservoirs. Methods A retrospective serosurvey was conducted to access the hantavirus seroprevalence in people living in regions affected by bovine vaccinia outbreaks. Results Sera from 53 patients were analyzed and none of them presented anti-hantavirus IgG antibodies. Conclusions This study presents an opportunity to analyze seronegativity despite close and recurrent contact with known hantavirus reservoirs. Aspects of hantavirus and bovine vaccinia emergence are also discussed.

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INTRODUCTION : The tuberculin test is a diagnostic method for detecting latent tuberculosis (TB) infection, especially among disease contact cases. The objective of this study was to analyze the prevalence and evolution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection among TB contact cases. METHODS : A retrospective cohort study was performed in a reference center for TB. The study population consisted of 2,425 patients who underwent a tuberculin test from 2003 to 2010 and whose results indicated contact with individuals with TB. The data were collected from the registry book of the tuberculin tests, patient files and the Information System Records of Notification Grievance. To verify the evolution of TB, case records through September 2014 were consulted. Data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). In all hypothesis tests, a significance level of 0.05 was used. RESULTS : From the studied sample, 435 (17.9%) contacts did not return for reading. Among the 1,990 contacts that completed the test, the prevalence of latent TB infection was 35.4%. Of these positive cases, 50.6% were referred to treatment; the dropout rate was 42.5%. Among all of the contacts, the TB prevalence was 1.8%, from which 13.2% abandoned treatment. CONCLUSIONS : The collected data indicate the need for more effective public policies to improve TB control, including administering tests that do not require a return visit for reading, enhancing contact tracing and encouraging actions that reinforce full treatment adherence.