Are the high-growth recovery periods over?

We present evidence about the loss of the so-called "plucking effect", that is, a high-growth phase of the cycle typically observed at the end of recessions. This result matches the popular belief, presented informally by different authors, that the current recession will have permanent effects, or that the current recession will have an L shape versus the old-time recessions that have always had a V shape. Furthermore, we show that the loss of the "plucking effect" can explain part of the Great Moderation. We postulate that these two phenomena may be due to changes in inventory management brought about by improvements in information and communications technologies.

Delay and Haircuts in Sovereign Debt: Recovery and Sustainability

One of the striking aspects of recent sovereign debt restructurings is, conditional on default, delay length is positively correlated with the size of "haircut", which is size of creditor losses. In this paper, we develop an incomplete information model of debt restructuring where the prospect of uncertain economic recovery and the signalling about sustainability concerns together generate multi-period delay. The results from our analysis show that there is a correlation between delay length and size of haircut. Such results are supported by evidence. We show that Pareto ranking of equilibria, conditional on default, can be altered once we take into account the ex ante incentive of sovereign debtor. We use our results to evaluate proposals advocated to ensure orderly resolution of sovereign debt crises.

Experimental exposure of the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis, L.) to the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense: Histopathology, immune responses, and recovery

Mussels (Mytilus edulis) were exposed to cultures of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense or the non-toxic alga Rhodomonas sp. to evaluate the effects of the harmful alga on the mussels and to study recovery after discontinuation of the A. fundyense exposure. Mussels were exposed for 9 days to the different algae and then all were fed Rhodomonas sp. for 6 more days. Samples of hemolymph for hemocyte analyses and tissues for histology were collected before the exposure and periodically during exposure and recovery periods. Mussels filtered and ingested both microalgal cultures, producing fecal pellets containing degraded, partially degraded, and intact cells of both algae. Mussels exposed to A. fundyense had an inflammatory response consisting of degranulation and diapedesis of hemocytes into the alimentary canal and, as the exposure continued, hemocyte migration into the connective tissue between the gonadal follicles. Evidence of lipid peroxidation, similar to the detoxification pathway described for various xenobiotics, was found; insoluble lipofuchsin granules formed (ceroidosis), and hemocytes carried the granules to the alimentary canal, thus eliminating putative dinoflagellate toxins in feces. As the number of circulating hemocytes in A. fundyense-exposed mussels became depleted, mussels were immunocompromised, and pathological changes followed, i.e., increased prevalences of ceroidosis and trematodes after 9 days of exposure. Moreover, the total number of pathological changes increased from the beginning of the exposure until the last day (day 9). After 6 days of the exposure, mussels in one of the three tanks exposed to A. fundyense mass spawned; these mussels showed more severe effects of the toxic algae than non-spawning mussels exposed to A. fundyense. No significant differences were found between the two treatments during the recovery period, indicating rapid homeostatic processes in tissues and circulating hemocytes.

Prospective validation of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index. A clinical prognostic model for pulmonary embolism

Practice guidelines recommend outpatient care for selected patients with non-massive pulmonary embolism (PE), but fail to specify how these low-risk patients should be identified. Using data from U.S. patients, we previously derived the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), a prediction rule that risk stratifies patients with PE. We sought to validate the PESI in a European patient cohort. We prospectively validated the PESI in patients with PE diagnosed at six emergency departments in three European countries. We used baseline data for the rule's 11 prognostic variables to stratify patients into five risk classes (I-V) of increasing probability of mortality. The outcome was overall mortality at 90 days after presentation. To assess the accuracy of the PESI to predict mortality, we estimated the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for low- (risk classes I/II) versus higher-risk patients (risk classes III-V), and the discriminatory power using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Among 357 patients with PE, overall mortality was 5.9%, ranging from 0% in class I to 17.9% in class V. The 186 (52%) low-risk patients had an overall mortality of 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1-3.8%) compared to 11.1% (95% CI: 6.8-16.8%) in the 171 (48%) higher-risk patients. The PESI had a high sensitivity (91%, 95% CI: 71-97%) and a negative predictive value (99%, 95% CI: 96-100%) for predicting mortality. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.70-0.86). The PESI reliably identifies patients with PE who are at low risk of death and who are potential candidates for outpatient care. The PESI may help physicians make more rational decisions about hospitalization for patients with PE.

Les préférences alimentaires sont-elles influencées par l'index de masse corporelle, l'âge, le sexe ou le tabac [Are food preferences affected by body mass index, age, sex or tobacco?].

In recent decades the percentage of energy derived from dietary fat has increased. The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between food taste preferences, BMI, age, gender and smoking habits. A computerized questionnaire using a hedonic scale (range 0 to 8) to quantify the liking for sweet and savoury, lean and fat foods, was filled by 233 adults: 171 normal weight (131 women, 40 men) and 62 overweight subjects (BMI > 25 kg/m2 42 women, 20 men). The majority of the subjects had a general preference for savoury lean food irrespective of their BMI or gender. Similarly, preference for sweet lean food was not influenced by the magnitude of the BMI. In contrast, overweight subjects had a preference for sweet fat food (p = 0.05) as well as for savoury fat food (p < 0.05). At any age or BMI, men preferred sweet fat food (p < 0.01). This was not the case for women. Overweight men over forty preferred savoury fat food, in contrast to overweight women of the same age (p < 0.01). The same difference existed between normal weight smokers and non-smokers. This study demonstrates that fat food preference plays a potential role in the development of obesity.

Quantitative comparison of reconstruction methods for intra-voxel fiber recovery from diffusion MRI.

Validation is arguably the bottleneck in the diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) community. This paper evaluates and compares 20 algorithms for recovering the local intra-voxel fiber structure from diffusion MRI data and is based on the results of the "HARDI reconstruction challenge" organized in the context of the "ISBI 2012" conference. Evaluated methods encompass a mixture of classical techniques well known in the literature such as diffusion tensor, Q-Ball and diffusion spectrum imaging, algorithms inspired by the recent theory of compressed sensing and also brand new approaches proposed for the first time at this contest. To quantitatively compare the methods under controlled conditions, two datasets with known ground-truth were synthetically generated and two main criteria were used to evaluate the quality of the reconstructions in every voxel: correct assessment of the number of fiber populations and angular accuracy in their orientation. This comparative study investigates the behavior of every algorithm with varying experimental conditions and highlights strengths and weaknesses of each approach. This information can be useful not only for enhancing current algorithms and develop the next generation of reconstruction methods, but also to assist physicians in the choice of the most adequate technique for their studies.

Adiposity indicators and blood pressure in children: nothing beyond body mass index?

Obesity is a major risk factor for elevated blood pressure in children. For instance, in a school-based study of 5207 children aged 10-12 years, the prevalence of hypertension, which is sustained elevated blood pressure over several visits, was 1.5%, 3.9% and 17.5% in normal weight, overweight and obese children, respectively. High body mass index (BMI) is commonly used to define overweight and obesity. However, because BMI is merely a proxy for adiposity, there is a longstanding debate about its performance to predict elevated blood pressure (or any other health conditions associated with adiposity) and whether other adiposity indicators, such as waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio or hip circumference, should not be preferred... In this study, 7.4% of boys and 6.4% of girls had elevated blood pressure. The adiposity indicators were highly correlated to each other, apart from weight, waist-to-hip ratio and skinfold thickness z-scores. All indicators were associated with blood pressure. The ability to identify children with elevated blood pressure, assessed by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) statistic, was superior for BMI, body adiposity index and waist-to-height ratio z-scores compared with other indicators. BMI z-scores had a slightly higher AUC than other indicators. The authors concluded that BMIz-scores could be a better predictor of elevated blood pressure in children than other adiposity indicators.

Effects of unilateral motor cortex lesion on ipsilesional hand's reach and grasp performance in monkeys: relationship with recovery in the contralesional hand.

Manual dexterity, a prerogative of primates, is under the control of the corticospinal (CS) tract. Because 90-95% of CS axons decussate, it is assumed that this control is exerted essentially on the contralateral hand. Consistently, unilateral lesion of the hand representation in the motor cortex is followed by a complete loss of dexterity of the contralesional hand. During the months following lesion, spontaneous recovery of manual dexterity takes place to a highly variable extent across subjects, although largely incomplete. In the present study, we tested the hypothesis that after a significant postlesion period, manual performance in the ipsilesional hand is correlated with the extent of functional recovery in the contralesional hand. To this aim, ten adult macaque monkeys were subjected to permanent unilateral motor cortex lesion. Monkeys' manual performance was assessed for each hand during several months postlesion, using our standard behavioral test (modified Brinkman board task) that provides a quantitative measure of reach and grasp ability. The ipsilesional hand's performance was found to be significantly enhanced over the long term (100-300 days postlesion) in six of ten monkeys, with the six exhibiting the best, though incomplete, recovery of the contralesional hand. There was a statistically significant correlation (r = 0.932; P < 0.001) between performance in the ipsilesional hand after significant postlesion period and the extent of recovery of the contralesional hand. This observation is interpreted in terms of different possible mechanisms of recovery, dependent on the recruitment of motor areas in the lesioned and/or intact hemispheres.

Protein recovery, separation and purification: selection of optimal techniques using an expert system

The paper discusses the utilization of new techniques ot select processes for protein recovery, separation and purification. It describesa rational approach that uses fundamental databases of proteins molecules to simplify the complex problem of choosing high resolution separation methods for multi component mixtures. It examines the role of modern computer techniques to help solving these questions.

The multipoint Morisita index for the analysis of spatial patterns

In many fields, the spatial clustering of sampled data points has many consequences. Therefore, several indices have been proposed to assess the level of clustering affecting datasets (e.g. the Morisita index, Ripley's Kfunction and Rényi's generalized entropy). The classical Morisita index measures how many times it is more likely to select two measurement points from the same quadrats (the data set is covered by a regular grid of changing size) than it would be in the case of a random distribution generated from a Poisson process. The multipoint version (k-Morisita) takes into account k points with k >= 2. The present research deals with a new development of the k-Morisita index for (1) monitoring network characterization and for (2) detection of patterns in monitored phenomena. From a theoretical perspective, a connection between the k-Morisita index and multifractality has also been found and highlighted on a mathematical multifractal set.

Thyroid hormone enhances transected axonal regeneration and muscle reinnervation following rat sciatic nerve injury.

Improvement of nerve regeneration and functional recovery following nerve injury is a challenging problem in clinical research. We have already shown that following rat sciatic nerve transection, the local administration of triiodothyronine (T3) significantly increased the number and the myelination of regenerated axons. Functional recovery is a sum of the number of regenerated axons and reinnervation of denervated peripheral targets. In the present study, we investigated whether the increased number of regenerated axons by T3-treatment is linked to improved reinnervation of hind limb muscles. After transection of rat sciatic nerves, silicone or biodegradable nerve guides were implanted and filled with either T3 or phosphate buffer solution (PBS). Neuromuscular junctions (NMJs) were analyzed on gastrocnemius and plantar muscle sections stained with rhodamine alpha-bungarotoxin and neurofilament antibody. Four weeks after surgery, most end-plates (EPs) of operated limbs were still denervated and no effect of T3 on muscle reinnervation was detected at this stage of nerve repair. In contrast, after 14 weeks of nerve regeneration, T3 clearly enhanced the reinnervation of gastrocnemius and plantar EPs, demonstrated by significantly higher recovery of size and shape complexity of reinnervated EPs and also by increased acetylcholine receptor (AChRs) density on post synaptic membranes compared to PBS-treated EPs. The stimulating effect of T3 on EP reinnervation is confirmed by a higher index of compound muscle action potentials recorded in gastrocnemius muscles. In conclusion, our results provide for the first time strong evidence that T3 enhances the restoration of NMJ structure and improves synaptic transmission.

The eta invariant and equivariant index of transversally elliptic operators

We prove a formula for the multiplicities of the index of an equivariant transversally elliptic operator on a G-manifold. The formula is a sum of integrals over blowups of the strata of the group action and also involves eta invariants of associated elliptic operators. Among the applications, we obtain an index formula for basic Dirac operators on Riemannian foliations, a problem that was open for many years.

Sentinel lymph node involvement and a high Breslow index are independent factors of risk for early relapse of melanoma.

AIM: The clinical relevance of sentinel lymph node (SLN) analysis was evaluated prospectively and compared with other known risk factors of relapse in early stage melanoma. METHODS: Surgery was guided by lymphoscintigraphy, blue dye and gamma probe detection. SLN were analysed by haematoxylin eosin (HE) histochemistry and multimarker immunohistochemistry (IHC). Disease free survival (DFS) was evaluated with Kaplan-Meier plots according to different parameters and Cox analyses of variance. RESULTS: From 210 patients a total of 381 SLN were excised. Lymphoscintigraphy identified all excised SLN with only 2 false positive lymphatic lakes. Fifty patients (24%) had tumour positive SLN. With a mean follow-up of 31.3 months, 29 tumour recurrences were observed, 19 (38%) in 50 SLN positive and 10 (6%) in 160 SLN negative patients. Strong predictive factors for early relapse (p < 0.0005) were SLN positivity and a high Breslow index. CONCLUSION: SLN tumour positivity is an independent factor of high risk for early relapse with a higher power of discrimination than the Breslow index.

Fecal calprotectin more accurately reflects endoscopic activity of ulcerative colitis than the Lichtiger Index, CRP, or blood leukocytes

Background: Mucosal healing in ulcerative colitis (UC) is reported to be associated with favourable clinical outcomes such as reduced hospitalization and surgery rates. Activity monitoring by endoscopy has its shortcomings due to invasiveness, costs, and potential patient discomfort. Data on the correlation of noninvasive biomarkers with endoscopic severity in UC are scarce. Aim: to evaluate the correlation between endoscopic activity according to the modified Baron Index and fecal calprotectin, C-reactive protein (CRP), blood leukocytes, and the Lichtiger Index (clinical score). Methods: UC patients with leftsided and extensive colitis undergoing complete colonoscopy were prospectively enrolled and scored clinically and endoscopically. Fecal and blood samples were analyzed in UC patients (in a blinded fashion) and controls. The modified Baron score describes the following 5 endoscopic conditions: 0 = normal, 1 = granular mucosa, edema, 2 = friable mucosa but no spontaneous bleeding, 3 = microulcerations with spontaneous bleeding, 4 = gross ulceration, denuded mucosa. Results: We enrolled 228 UC patients (mean age 41 ± 13 years, 39 female) and 52 healthy controls. Disease was located in 40% in the left colon, 21% had an extensive and 39% a pancolitis. Endoscopic disease activity correlated best with fecal calprotectin (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient r = 0.821), followed by the Lichtiger Index (r = 0.682), CRP (r = 0.556), and blood leukocytes (r = 0.401). Fecal calprotectin was the only marker that could discriminate between different grades of endoscopic activity (grade 0, 25 ± 11 μg/g; grade 1, 44 ± 34 μg/g; grade 2, 111 ± 74 μg/g; grade 3, 330 ± 332 μg/g; grade 4, 659 ± 319 μg/g; P = 0.002 for discriminating grade 0 vs. 1, and P < 0.001 for discriminating grade 1 vs. 2, grade 2 vs. 3, and grade 3 vs. 4). Fecal calprotectin had the highest overall accuracy (91%) to detect endoscopically active disease (modified Baron Index ≥ 2), followed by the Lichtiger Index score of ≥ 4 (77%), CRP > 5 mg/L (69%) and blood leukocytosis (58%). Conclusions: Fecal calprotectin better correlated with endoscopic disease activity than clinical activity, CRP, and blood leukocytes. The strong correlation with endoscopic disease activity suggests that FC represents a useful biomarker for noninvasive monitoring of disease activity in UC patients.

Lack of metabolic and behavioral adaptations in rural Gambian men with low body mass index.

Energy expenditure was measured by means of a respiratory chamber in two groups of adult rural Gambian men. The first group (n = 29) had a low body mass index (BMI; in kg/m2) < 18.5), whereas the control group (n = 29) had a higher BMI (> 22). This study shows that the energy expenditure of Gambian men with low BMI is not different from that of Gambian men with normal BMI when the results are normalized for fat-free mass or for weight by analysis of covariance. In Gambian men the nutritional status thus does not seem to affect energy metabolism notably. No differences in respiratory quotient, diet-induced thermogenesis, net work efficiency, spontaneous physical activity, heart rate, or urinary catecholamine excretion were observed between the two groups. It is, however, interesting to note that the basal metabolic rate of Gambian men, regardless of their nutritional status, is approximately 10% (range 4-12% depending on the reference value used) lower than that predicted for individuals living in industrialized countries.