887 resultados para probability of occurrence


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Macrobrachium carcinus is a Brazilian native prawn with recognized potential for use in aquaculture activities. However, there is little information about the natural diet and feeding habits of this species. The aim of this study was the identification of the diet items of M. carcinus based on the analysis of the stomach contents. Specimens were collected in the Amazon River estuary between January 2009 and January 2010. The stomach analysis was carried out by using the frequency of occurrence (FO), methods of points (MP) and feeding index (FI). It was observed that prawns fed on detritus, animals and plant fragments as the most important food items. Sediment accounted for the main stomach content, accounting for 43.2% by the MP, 44.9% by FI and 100% by the FO. Sexual differences in feeding preferences were not found in this study, and seasonal differences in the frequency of items ingested by M. carcinus were not observed. The results indicated that M. carcinus can be considered omnivorous species, but with an important carnivorous component, similar to that found in other Macrobrachium species.

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Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências (Especialidade em Matemática)

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Tese de Doutoramento em Biologia Ambiental e Molecular

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Invasive cervical cancer (ICC) is the third most frequent cancer among women worldwide and is associated with persistent infection by carcinogenic human papillomaviruses (HPVs). The combination of large populations of viral progeny and decades of sustained infection may allow for the generation of intra-patient diversity, in spite of the assumedly low mutation rates of PVs. While the natural history of chronic HPVs infections has been comprehensively described, within-host viral diversity remains largely unexplored. In this study we have applied next generation sequencing to the analysis of intra-host genetic diversity in ten ICC and one condyloma cases associated to single HPV16 infection. We retrieved from all cases near full-length genomic sequences. All samples analyzed contained polymorphic sites, ranging from 3 to 125 polymorphic positions per genome, and the median probability of a viral genome picked at random to be identical to the consensus sequence in the lesion was only 40%. We have also identified two independent putative duplication events in two samples, spanning the L2 and the L1 gene, respectively. Finally, we have identified with good support a chimera of human and viral DNA. We propose that viral diversity generated during HPVs chronic infection may be fueled by innate and adaptive immune pressures. Further research will be needed to understand the dynamics of viral DNA variability, differentially in benign and malignant lesions, as well as in tissues with differential intensity of immune surveillance. Finally, the impact of intralesion viral diversity on the long-term oncogenic potential may deserve closer attention.

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Tese de Doutoramento em Psicologia (Especialidade de Psicologia Experimental e Ciências Cognitivas)

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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficiency of a systematic diagnostic approach in patients with chest pain in the emergency room in relation to the diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and the rate of hospitalization in high-cost units. METHODS: One thousand and three consecutive patients with chest pain were screened according to a pre-established process of diagnostic investigation based on the pre-test probability of ACS determinate by chest pain type and ECG changes. RESULTS: Of the 1003 patients, 224 were immediately discharged home because of no suspicion of ACS (route 5) and 119 were immediately transferred to the coronary care united because of ST elevation or left bundle-branch block (LBBB) (route 1) (74% of these had a final diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction [AMI]). Of the 660 patients that remained in the emergency room under observation, 77 (12%) had AMI without ST segment elevation and 202 (31%) had unstable angina (UA). In route 2 (high probability of ACS) 17% of patients had AMI and 43% had UA, whereas in route 3 (low probability) 2% had AMI and 7 % had UA. The admission ECG has been confirmed as a poor sensitivity test for the diagnosis of AMI ( 49%), with a positive predictive value considered only satisfactory (79%). CONCLUSION: A systematic diagnostic strategy, as used in this study, is essential in managing patients with chest pain in the emergency room in order to obtain high diagnostic accuracy, lower cost, and optimization of the use of coronary care unit beds.

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PURPOSE: To evaluate the efficacy of a systematic model of care for patients with chest pain and no ST segment elevation in the emergency room. METHODS: From 1003 patients submitted to an algorithm diagnostic investigation by probability of acute ischemic syndrome. We analyzed 600 ones with no elevation of ST segment, then enrolled to diagnostic routes of median (route 2) and low probability (route 3) to ischemic syndrome. RESULTS: In route 2 we found 17% acute myocardial infarction and 43% unstable angina, whereas in route 3 the rates were 2% and 7%, respectively. Patients with normal/non--specific ECG had 6% probability of AMI whereas in those with negative first CKMB it was 7%; the association of the 2 data only reduced it to 4%. In patients in route 2 the diagnosis of AMI could only be ruled out with serial CKMB measurement up to 9 hours, while in route 3 it could be done in up to 3 hours. Thus, sensitivity and negative predictive value of admission CKMB for AMI were 52% and 93%, respectively. About one-half of patients with unstable angina did not disclose objective ischemic changes on admission. CONCLUSION: The use of a systematic model of care in patients with chest pain offers the opportunity of hindering inappropriate release of patients with ACI and reduces unnecessary admissions. However some patients even with normal ECG should not be released based on a negative first CKMB. Serial measurement of CKMB up to 9 hours is necessary in patients with medium probability of AMI.

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OBJECTIVE: To assess the incidence of problems requiring reprogramming of atrioventricular pacemakers in a long-term follow-up, and also the causes for this procedure. METHODS: During the period from May '98 to December '99, 657 patients were retrospectively studied, An actuarial curve for the event reprogramming of the stimulation mode was drawn. RESULTS: The follow-up period ranged from 12 to 178 months (mean = 81 months). Eighty-two (12.4%) patients underwent reprogramming of the stimulation mode as follows: 63 (9.5%) changed to VVI,(R/C); 10 (1.5%) changed to DVI,C; 6 (0.9%) changed to VDD,C; and 3 (0.5%) changed to DOO. The causes for the reprogramming were as follows: arrhythmia conducted by the pacemaker in 39 (37.6%) patients; loss of atrial sensitivity or capture, or both, in 39 (38.6%) patients; and microfracture of atrial electrode in 5 (4.9%) patients. The stimulation mode reprogramming free probability after 15 years was 58%. CONCLUSION: In a long-term follow-up, the atrioventricular pacemaker provided a low incidence of complications, a high probability of permanence in the DDD,C mode, and the most common cause of reprogramming was arrhythmia conducted by the pacemaker.

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OBJECTIVE: To determine the characteristics associated with the dropout of patients followed up in a Brazilian out patient clinic specializing in hypertension. METHODS: Planned prospective cohort study of patients who were prescribed an antihypertensive treatment after an extensive initial evaluation. The following parameters were analyzed: sex, age, educational level, duration of disease, pressure level used for classifying the patient, previous treatment, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, familial history of hypertension, and lesion in a target organ. RESULTS: We studied 945 hypertensive patients, 533 (56%) of whom dropped out of the follow-up. The mean age was 52.3±12.9 years. The highest probabilities of dropout of the follow-up were associated with current smoking, relative risk of 1.46 (1.04-2.06); educational level equal to or below 5 years of schooling, relative risk of 1.52 (1.11-2.08); and hypertension duration below 5 years, relative risk of 1.78 (1.28-2.48). Age increase was associated with a higher probability of follow-up with a relative risk of 0.98 (0.97-0.99). CONCLUSION: We identified a group at risk for dropping out the follow-up, which comprised patients with a lower educational level, a recent diagnosis of hypertension, and who were smokers. We think that measures assuring adherence to treatment should be directed to this group of patients.

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PURPOSE: Upright tilt-table testing (UTT) is an useful method for identifying patients with neurocardiogenic syncope, but its role in the evaluation of therapeutic efficacy is controversial. The aim of this study was to determine the correlation between negative UTT after therapy introduction (acute efficacy) and symptom recurrence during follow-up (chronic efficacy). METHODS: We studied 56 severely symptomatic patients (age 27±19 years) with recurrent (7±12 episodes) neurocardiogenic syncope (positive UTT). Once empirical pharmacological therapy was initiated, all patients underwent another UTT (therapeutic evaluation test - TET). Therapy was not modified after TET results. The probability of symptom recurrence was analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by log-rank test in patients with negative and positive TET. RESULTS: Negative UTT after therapy was related to a significantly lower probability of recurrence during follow-up (4.9 versus 52.4% in 12 months, P<0.0001). CONCLUSION: A good correlation exists between acute and long-term efficacy of pharmacological therapy for neurocardiogenic syncope, so that serial UTT may be considered a good method for identifying an effective therapeutic strategy.

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OBJECTIVE - To assess mortality and the psychological repercussions of the prolonged waiting time for candidates for heart surgery. METHODS - From July 1999 to May 2000, using a standardized questionnaire, we carried out standardized interviews and semi-structured psychological interviews with 484 patients with coronary heart disease, 121 patients with valvular heart diseases, and 100 patients with congenital heart diseases. RESULTS - The coefficients of mortality (deaths per 100 patients/year) were as follows: patients with coronary heart disease, 5.6; patients with valvular heart diseases, 12.8; and patients with congenital heart diseases, 3.1 (p<0.0001). The survival curve was lower in patients with valvular heart diseases than in patients with coronary heart disease and congenital heart diseases (p<0.001). The accumulated probability of not undergoing surgery was higher in patients with valvular heart diseases than in the other patients (p<0.001), and, among the patients with valvular heart diseases, this probability was higher in females than in males (p<0.01). Several patients experienced intense anxiety and attributed their adaptive problems in the scope of love, professional, and social lives, to not undergoing surgery. CONCLUSION - Mortality was high, and even higher among the patients with valvular heart diseases, with negative psychological and social repercussions.

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OBJECTIVE: To assess the clinical significance of transient ischemic dilation of the left ventricle during myocardial perfusion scintigraphy with stress/rest sestamibi. METHODS: The study retrospectively analyzed 378 patients who underwent myocardial perfusion scintigraphy with stress/rest sestamibi, 340 of whom had a low probability of having ischemia and 38 had significant transient defects. Transient ischemic dilation was automatically calculated using Autoquant software. Sensitivity, specificity, and the positive and negative predictive values were established for each value of transient ischemic dilation. RESULTS: The values of transient ischemic dilation for the groups of low probability and significant transient defects were, respectively, 1.01 ± 0.13 and 1.18 ± 0.17. The values of transient ischemic dilation for the group with significant transient defects were significantly greater than those obtained for the group with a low probability (P<0.001). The greatest positive predictive values, around 50%, were obtained for the values of transient ischemic dilation above 1.25. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that transient ischemic dilation assessed using the stress/rest sestamibi protocol may be useful to separate patients with extensive myocardial ischemia from those without ischemia.

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This thesis details the findings of a study into the spatial distribution and speciation of 238U, 226Ra and 228Ra in the soils of the Cronamuck valley, County Donegal . The region lies on the north-eastern edge of the Barnesmore granite and has been the subject of uranium prospecting efforts in the past. The results of the project provide information on the practicability of geostatistical techniques as a means of estimating the spatial distribution of natural radionuclides and provide insight into the behaviour of these nuclides and their modes of occurrence and enrichment in an upland bog environment. The results of the geostatistical survey conducted on the area indicate that the primary control over the levels of the studied nuclides in the soil of the valley is the underlying geology. Isopleth maps of nuclide levels in the valley indicate a predominance of elevated nuclide levels in the samples drawn from the granite region, statistical analysis of the data indicating that levels of the nuclides in samples drawn from the granite are greater than levels drawn from the non-granite region by up to a factor of 4.6 for 238U and 4.9 for 226Ra. Redistribution of the nuclides occurs via drainage systems within the valley, this process being responsible for transport of nuclides away from the granite region resulting in enrichment of nuclides in soils not underlain by the granite. Distribution of the nuclides within the valley is erratic, the effect of drainage f lows on the nuclides resulting in localized enriched areas within the valley. Speciation of the nuclides within one of the enriched areas encountered in the study indicates that enrichment is as a result of saturation of the soil with drainage water containing trace amounts of radionuclides. 238U is primarily held within the labile fractions (exchangeable cat ions + easily oxidisable organics + amorphous iron oxides ) of the soil , 226Ra being associated with the non- labile fractions, most probably the resistant organic material. 228Ra displays a significant occurrence in both the labile and non- labile fractions. The ability of the soil to retain uranium appears to be affected largely by the redox status of the soil, samples drawn from oxidizing environments tending to have little or no uranium in the easily oxidisable and amorphous iron oxide fractions. This loss of uranium from oxidised soil samples is responsible for the elevated 226Ra /238U disequilibrium encountered in the enriched areas of the valley. Analysis of the data indicates that samples displaying elevated 226Ra/238U ratios also exhibit elevated 228Ra/238U ratios indicating a loss of uranium from the samples as opposed to an enrichment of 226Ra.

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This study explores the perception of risk and the level of risk management implementation in the renewable sector. Risk management is emerging as a key issue due to the loss of confidence amongst banks, causing the attainment of financing to be difficult over the next few years. To attract financing, there is a fundamental requirement to manage risk in a way that minimizes the probability of a negative financial impact on the project. Miller and Lessard (2001) argue that successful projects are not selected but shaped with risk resolution in mind. Rather than evaluating projects at the outset based on projections of the full set of benefits, costs and risks over their lifetime, successful developers start with project ideas that have the potential of becoming viable. Therefore, this study bridges the gap that exists within the renewable sector in relation to risk management literature. This study succeeds through a detailed comparative case study analysis where two developers and two financiers were questioned through qualitative semi-structured interviews on the concept of risk management and its level implementation within the industry. It is believed that the growth in financed renewable energy projects depends on the adequate design and implementation of risk management to mitigate inherent project risks. However, this study revealed that are certain types of developers in existence within the renewable sector, which underestimate the magnitude of risk and view the development of projects as a ‘money racket’. Therefore, it can be concluded that perception of risk will also differ, causing risk and uncertainty to vary from project to project, resulting in investment reluctance to be associated with certain projects. The study originality lies in how it demonstrates to developers the concept of risk management, outlining the simplicity and benefits of implementing it in project development. Finally, this study contributes to the knowledge by enhancing the awareness and understanding of the presence and nature of risk in a RE project environment.

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Background:Familial amyloidotic polyneuropathy (FAP) is a rare disease diagnosed in Brazil and worldwide. The frequency of cardiovascular involvement in Brazilian FAP patients is unknown.Objective:Detect the frequency of cardiovascular involvement and correlate the cardiovascular findings with the modified polyneuropathy disability (PND) score.Methods:In a national reference center, 51 patients were evaluated with clinical examination, electrocardiography (ECG), echocardiography (ECHO), and 24-hour Holter. Patients were classified according to the modified PND score and divided into groups: PND 0, PND I, PND II, and PND > II (which included PND IIIa, IIIb, and IV). We chose the classification tree as the statistical method to analyze the association between findings in cardiac tests with the neurological classification (PND).Results:ECG abnormalities were present in almost 2/3 of the FAP patients, whereas ECHO abnormalities occurred in around 1/3 of them. All patients with abnormal ECHO also had abnormal ECG, but the opposite did not apply. The classification tree identified ECG and ECHO as relevant variables (p < 0.001 and p = 0.08, respectively). The probability of a patient to be allocated to the PND 0 group when having a normal ECG was over 80%. When both ECG and ECHO were abnormal, this probability was null.Conclusions:Brazilian patients with FAP have frequent ECG abnormalities. ECG is an appropriate test to discriminate asymptomatic carriers of the mutation from those who develop the disease, whereas ECHO contributes to this discrimination.