Picking the Right Budget Constraint for Scotland

This position paper considers the devolution of further fiscal powers to the Scottish Parliament in the context of the objectives and remit of the Smith Commission. The argument builds on our discussion of fiscal decentralization made in our previous published work on this topic. We ask what sort of budget constraint the Scottish Parliament should operate with. A soft budget constraint (SBC) allows the Scottish Parliament to spend without having to consider all of the tax and, therefore, political consequences, of that spending, which is effectively the position at the moment. The incentives to promote economic growth through fiscal policy – on both the tax and spending sides are weak to non-existent. This is what the Scotland Act, 1998, and the continuing use of the Barnett block grant, gave Scotland. Now other budget constraints are being discussed – those of the Calman Commission (2009) and the Scotland Act (2012), as well as the ones offered in 2014 by the various political parties – Scottish Conservatives, Scottish Greens, Scottish Labour, the Scottish Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Government. There is also the budget constraint designed by the Holtham Commission (2010) for Wales that could just as well be used in Scotland. We examine to what extent these offer the hard budget constraint (HBC) that would bring tax policy firmly into the realm of Scottish politics, asking the Scottish electorate and Parliament to consider the costs to them of increasing spending in terms of higher taxes; or the benefits to them of using public spending to grow the tax base and own-sourced taxes? The hardest budget constraint of all is offered by independence but, as is now known, a clear majority of those who voted in the referendum did not vote for this form of budget constraint. Rather they voted for a significant further devolution of fiscal powers while remaining within a political and monetary union with the rest of the UK, with the risk pooling and revenue sharing that this implies. It is not surprising therefore that none of the budget constraints on offer, apart from the SNP’s, come close to the HBC of independence. However, the almost 25% fall in the price of oil since the referendum, a resource stream so central to the SNP’s economic policy making, underscores why there is a need for a trade off between a HBC and risk pooling and revenue sharing. Ranked according to the desirable characteristic of offering something approaching a HBC the least desirable are those of the Calman Commission, the Scotland Act, 2012, and Scottish Labour. In all of these the ‘elasticity’ of the block grant in the face of failure to grow the Scottish tax base is either not defined or is very elastic – meaning that the risk of failure is shuffled off to taxpayers outside of Scotland. The degree of HBC in the Scottish Conservative, Scottish Greens and Scottish Liberal Democrats proposals are much more desirable from an economic growth point of view, the latter even embracing the HBC proposed by the Holtham Commission that combines serious tax policy with welfare support in the long-run. We judge that the budget constraint in the SNP’s proposals is too hard as it does not allow for continuation of the ‘welfare union’ in the UK. We also consider that in the case of a generalized UK economic slow requiring a fiscal stimulus that the Scottish Parliament be allowed increased borrowing to be repaid in the next economic upturn.

La ramaderia ecològica de boví a les Valls d'Àneu i viabilitat del producte ecològic: de la producció al consum

A les Valls d’Àneu la producció ramadera de boví ecològic és molt important, ja que, actualment, el 22% de les explotacions són ecològiques i es preveu que aquest percentatge augmenti fins al 50% en els propers dos anys. Malgrat això, la motivació principal per a convertir les explotacions convencionals en ecològiques és el factor econòmic, no la consciència ambiental. En l’anàlisi del cicle productiu carni del boví ecològic procedent de les Valls d’Àneu s’ha observat que no hi ha diferències substancials entre la producció ecològica i la convencional. Tot i així, el producte carni de boví ecològic no té gran sortida al mercat, ja que aquest és incipient i, a més, el preu del producte ecològic és molt més elevat que el del convencional. Un aspecte crític de la producció ramadera ecològica és que la seva normativa no considera els impactes ambientals que genera, com són els derivats del transport, la generació de residus d’envasos, etc. En aquest estudi es presenta una aproximació quantitativa dels impactes generats en el cicle productiu carni de boví ecològic de les Valls d’Àneu.

Authoritarian Responses to Foreign Pressure: Spending, Repression, and Sanctions

This paper explores how international sanctions affect authoritarian rulers’ decisions concerning repression and public spending composition, and how different authoritarian rulers respond to foreign pressure. If sanctions are assumed to increase the price of loyalty to the regime, then rulers whose budgets are not severely constrained by sanctions will tend to increase spending in those categories that most benefit their core support groups. In contrast, when constraints are severe due to reduced aid and trade, dictators are expected to greatly increase their levels of repression. Using data on regime types, public expenditures and spending composition (1970–2000) as well as on repression levels (1976–2001), we show that the empirical patterns conform well to our theoretical expectations. Single-party regimes, when targeted by sanctions, increase spending on subsidies and transfers which largely benefit more substantial sectors of the population and especially the urban classes. Likewise, military regimes increase their expenditures on goods and services, which include military equipment and soldiers’ and officers’ wages. Conversely, personalist regimes reduce spending in all categories, especially capital expenditures, while increasing repression much more than other regime types when targeted by sanctions.

Modern immunological approaches to assess malaria transmission and immunity and to diagnose plasmodial infection

The present paper reviews our recent data concerning the use of immunological methods employing monoclonal antibodies and synthetic peptides to study malaria transmission and immunity and to diagnose plasmodial infection. As concerns malaria transmission, we studied the main vectors of human malaria and the plasmodial species transmitted in endemic areas of Rondônia state, Brazil. The natural infection on anopheline was evaluated by immunoradiometric assay (IRMA) using monoclonal antibodies to an immunodominant sporozoite surface antigen (CS protein) demonstrated to be species specific. Our results showed that among six species of Anopheles found infected, An. darlingi was the main vector transmitting Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax malaria in the immediate vicinity of houses. In order to assess the level of anti-CS antibodies we studied, by IRMA using the synthetic peptide corresponding to the repetitive epitope of the sporozoite CS protein, sera of individuals living in the same areas where the entomological survey has been performed. In this assay the prevalence of anti-CS antibodies was very low and did not reflect the malaria transmission rate in the studied areas. In relation to malaria diagnosis, a monoclonal antibody specific to an epitope of a 50 kDa exoantigen, the major component of supernatant collected at the time of schizont rupture, was used as a probe for the detection of P. falciparum antigens. This assay seemed to be more sensitive than parasitological examination for malaria diagnosis since it was able to detect plasmodial antigens in both symptomatic and asymtomatic individuals with negative thick blood smear at different intervals after a last parasitologically confirmed confirmed attack of malaria.

Dispersive flight and house invasion by Triatoma guasayana and Triatoma sordida in Argentina

Flight activity and invasion of houses by Triatoma sordida and T. guasayana were studied in the Province of Santiago del Estero, Argentina. Spontaneous findings of both species in houses were recorded from 1982 to 1989. Light trap collections were performed in 1982, 1983 and 1984, at the woods surrounding the settlements of Amamá (43 houses) and Trinidad (19 houses). Most of the 101 triatomines collected, were unfed and negative for Trypanosoma cruzi. T. guasayana predominated over T. sordida, and both appeared on the lighted screens between 19-31 min (mean 24) after dusk and the catch time was 30-45 min. Although entomological evaluation of 41 houses at Amamá performed in September 1985, just before insecticidal spraying, showed that Triatoma infestans predominated, adults of T. guasayana were collected in sleeping places, in 7 houses (17%). Most triatomines invading houses from then up to 1990 were flying T. guasayana (20/27) and females outnumbered males. Three non infected T. guasayana females were fed on man and two T. guasayana males positive for "T. cruzi like" trypanosomes were unfed. Therefore, visiting hungry adults could transmit T. cruzi to people and introduce wild parasites to the domestic cycle. T. guasayana stands as the main potential substitute of T. infestans in the studied area, and it might play there the same role as T. sordida in Brazil.

An attempt to control Phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) by residual spraying with deltamethrin in a Colombian village

An attempt was made to control phlebotomine sand flies biting indoors in a rural community near Cali, Colombia, using the residual insecticide "K-Othrine" (deltamethrin) sprayed on the inside walls of houses. Twelve houses were divided into matched pairs based on physical characteristics, one house in each pair being left untreated while the inside walls of the other were sprayed with 1 deltamethrin at a concentration of 500 mg a.i./m2. Sand flies were sampled each week using protected human bait and sticky trap collections for four months after spraying. The number of sand flies (Lutzomyia youngi) collected on sticky traps was significantly lower (P = 0.004) in the untreated houses than in the treated ones with which they were matched. This difference was not significant for L. columbiana; the other anthropophilic species were not present in large numbers. The numbers collected on human bait in treated and untreated houses were not significantly different for either species. Activity of the insecticide as determined by contact bioassays remained high throughout the study and failure to control the insects was attributed to two factors: the tendency of sand flies to bite before making contact with the insecticide and the fact that the number of sand flies that entered houses represented a relatively small proportion of the population in the wooded areas surrounding the settlement in the study.

Are virtual planning and guided surgery for head and neck reconstruction economically viable?

PURPOSE: Virtual planning and guided surgery with or without prebent or milled plates are becoming more and more common for mandibular reconstruction with fibular free flaps (FFFs). Although this excellent surgical option is being used more widely, the question of the additional cost of planning and cutting-guide production has to be discussed. In capped payment systems such additional costs have to be offset by other savings if there are no special provisions for extra funding. Our study was designed to determine whether using virtual planning and guided surgery resulted in time saved during surgery and whether this time gain resulted in self-funding of such planning through the time saved. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All consecutive cases of FFF surgery were evaluated during a 2-year period. Institutional data were used to determine the price of 1 minute of operative time. The time for fibula molding, plate adaptation, and insetting was recorded. RESULTS: During the defined period, we performed 20 mandibular reconstructions using FFFs, 9 with virtual planning and guided surgery and 11 freehand cases. One minute of operative time was calculated to cost US $47.50. Multiplying this number by the time saved, we found that the additional cost of virtual planning was reduced from US $5,098 to US $1,231.50 with a prebent plate and from US $6,980 to US $3,113.50 for a milled plate. CONCLUSIONS: Even in capped health care systems, virtual planning and guided surgery including prebent or milled plates are financially viable.

Community Education Needs to be Supported by Strong Public Policy to Tackle Food Poverty

Community education needs to be supported by strong public policy if it is to be fully effective at tackling food poverty and obesity, a project evaluation by the Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) has found. In its evaluation of Decent Food for All (DFfA) - a major project to improve community diet and health - IPH found that where people live and shop had a greater impact on their diet than their own individual awareness and attitudes. Access Tackling Food Poverty: lessons from the Decent Food for All intervention at www.publichealth.ie DFfA was funded by safefood (the Food Safety Promotion Board) and the Food Standards Agency Northern Ireland. The project lasted four years and included hundreds of community education activities designed to improve diet in poorer parts of Armagh and South Tyrone. safefood commissioned IPH to undertake the evaluation of DFfA. Dr. Kevin Balanda, IPH Associate Director, said 'The aim of the project was to reduce food poverty (this is defined as not being able to consume adequate healthy food) and improve health in the target communities. DFfA delivered over 370 core activities to 3,100 residents including local education talks on diet, cookery workshops, fresh fruit in schools, healthy food tastings and information stands. One in eight residents in the target areas participated in at least one of these activities.' The evaluation found that over 1 in 5 adults in the target areas reported they had cut their weekly food spending in the last six months to pay other household bills such as rent, electricity and gas. During the four years of the DFfA activities, this percentage had not changed significantly. There were mixed changes in the nature of food in local stores. While the overall availability and price of food increased, both ﾓhealthierﾔ food and ﾓunhealthierﾔ food were included in that increase. It was only in the larger ﾓmultiple/discount freezerﾔ type of shops that the overall price of food had decreased.

Is there a role for autoimmunity in immune protection against malaria?

Much remains to be known about the mechanisms involved in protective immunity against malaria and the way it is acquired. This is probably the reason why, in spite of so much progress, it has not yet been possible to develop an anti-malaria vaccine able to induce parasite specific antibodies (Ab) and/or T-cells. It has been considered in the early 80s that the induction of efficient protection against the blood stage forms of Plasmodium falciparum would not be possible without simultaneously eliciting an autoimmune (AI) response against erythrocytes, even at the price of inducing an AI pathology. Despite the description of the reciprocal relationship, i.e. the protective effect of malaria on the development of AI diseases - demonstrated since 1970 - no effort has been made to verify the possible involvement of the AI response in protection against malaria. With this end in view - and in the light of the knowledge acquired in autoimmunity and the existence of the so called "natural" (not associated with pathology) autoantibodies - we propose to examine the hypothesis that the participation of the AI response (not necessarily restricted to autologous erythrocyte antigens) in the immune protection against malaria is possible or even necessary.

Recent clinical trials with omapatrilat: new developments.

Omapatrilat belongs to the vasopeptidase inhibitors, ie, drugs that possess the ability to inhibit simultaneously the membrane-bound zinc metalloproteases, angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE), and the neutral endopeptidase EC 3.4.24.11 (NEP). Omapatrilat was targeted to treat patients with hypertension and congestive heart failure. The preclinical and early clinical studies conducted with omapatrilat were very promising. Indeed, omapatrilat appeared to be a very potent antihypertensive agent with very favorable effects on cardiac function in heart failure patients. In contrast to these early studies, the large clinical trials were more disappointing. The results of the OCTAVE trial confirmed the antihypertensive efficacy of omapatrilat, but at the price of an angioedema rate more than threefold higher than that of an ACE inhibitor in the overall population (2.17% vs 0.68%), and close to fourfold higher in the black population. In OVERTURE, a large randomized control trial in heart failure, angioedema was also more common with omapatrilat, but the incidence was much lower (0.8% with omapatrilat vs 0.5% with enalapril). However, omapatrilat was not convincingly superior to the ACE inhibitor. Because angioedema is probably a class side effect of vasopeptidase inhibitors, the higher incidence of this potentially life-threatening complication with omapatrilat has likely stopped the development of this new class of agents. The future of vasopeptidase inhibitors will depend on the ability to improve the risk/benefit ratio either by developing agents that produce less angioedema, or by defining more precisely a high-risk population that could take advantage of dual ACE/NEP inhibition.

Triatoma mexicana (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) in Guanajuato, Mexico: house infestation and seasonal variation

Triatoma mexicana was described by Herrich-Schaeffer in 1848. In 1940, a male specimen was found in Hidalgo. In 1970, this species was recorded in the state of Queretaro. Later, it was registered in Guanajuato and San Luis Potosi. In the present paper we performed an investigation in 545 dwellings from three counties in the state of Guanajuato, Mexico, from March 2003 to May 2004. The search and capture of triatomines were seasonally performed indoors and outdoors. Entomological indexes were calculated. The risk and no risk relations between triatomine presence and housing construction materials were analyzed. Fourteen triatomines were collected indoors and 151 outdoors. The vectors were collected in houses built with either risky and non-risky materials. Adults go indoors but do not settle there, hence, no relationship was found between the building materials and infestation of houses. Conventional interventions like house improvement or insecticide spraying are not efficient for the control of T. mexicana, because its developmental cycle is accomplished outdoors in the area surrounding the houses.

Chagas disease in the Amazon Region

The risk that Chagas disease becomes established as a major endemic threat in Amazonia (the world's largest tropical biome, today inhabited by over 30 million people) relates to a complex set of interacting biological and social determinants. These include intense immigration from endemic areas (possibly introducing parasites and vectors), extensive landscape transformation with uncontrolled deforestation, and the great diversity of wild Trypanosoma cruzi reservoir hosts and vectors (25 species in nine genera), which maintain intense sylvatic transmission cycles. Invasion of houses by adventitious vectors (with infection rates > 60%) is common, and focal adaptation of native triatomines to artificial structures has been reported. Both acute (~ 500) and chronic cases of autochthonous human Chagas disease have been documented beyond doubt in the region. Continuous, low-intensity transmission seems to occur throughout the Amazon, and generates a hypoendemic pattern with seropositivity rates of ~ 1-3%. Discrete foci also exist in which transmission is more intense (e.g., in localized outbreaks probably linked to oral transmission) and prevalence rates higher. Early detection-treatment of acute cases is crucial for avoiding further dispersion of endemic transmission of Chagas disease in Amazonia, and will require the involvement of malaria control and primary health care systems. Comprehensive eco-epidemiological research, including prevalence surveys or the characterization of transmission dynamics in different ecological settings, is still needed. The International Initiative for Chagas Disesae Surveillance and Prevention in the Amazon provides the framework for building up the political and scientific cooperation networks required to confront the challenge of preventing Chagas disease in Amazonia.

El Forment a la Barcelona baixmedieval: preus, mesures i fiscalitat (1283-1345)

A través de l'anàlisi de dos sèries de diferents llibres de comptabilitat de Barcelona, els procedents de la gestió dels molins reals i els redactats per una institució eclesiàstica, la Pia Almoina, vam començar a estudiar el mercat del blat a Barcelona durant l'edat mitjana. Hem analitzat anteriorment el valor de les mesures a Barcelona i, per poder qualificar el preu real del pa, també hem estudiat els diferents processos industrials per fer pa de blat. Després, hem analitzat el conjunt d'impostos que pesaven sobre la comercialització de cereals. A través de l'estudi de l'evolució dels preus, hem tractat de fer una primera aproximació de la primera etapa de la crisi baixmedieval, concretament entre 1283 i 1345, tenint en compte els contrastos amb els treballs ja coneguts sobre la base de les fonts on la noció de quantitat no va ser considerada. Finalment, hem comparat els nostres resultats amb alguns treballs referents a la Corona d'Aragó i el món mediterrani, a fi d'obtenir una idea més precisa de la cronologia de les crisis de subsistència

Chemotherapy for advanced gastric cancer.

BACKGROUND: Gastric cancer currently ranks second in global cancer mortality. Most patients are either diagnosed at an advanced stage, or develop a relapse after surgery with curative intent. Apart from supportive care and palliative radiation to localized (e.g. bone) metastasis, systemic chemotherapy is the only treatment option available in this situation. OBJECTIVES: To assess the efficacy of chemotherapy versus best supportive care, combination versus single agent chemotherapy and different combination chemotherapy regimens in advanced gastric cancer. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE and EMBASE up to March 2009, reference lists of studies, and contacted pharmaceutical companies and national and international experts. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials on systemic intravenous chemotherapy versus best supportive care, combination versus single agent chemotherapy and different combination chemotherapies in advanced gastric cancer. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently extracted data. A third investigator was consulted in case of disagreements. We contacted study authors to obtain missing information. MAIN RESULTS: Thirty five trials, with a total of 5726 patients, have been included in the meta-analysis of overall survival. The comparison of chemotherapy versus best supportive care consistently demonstrated a significant benefit in overall survival in favour of the group receiving chemotherapy (hazard ratios (HR) 0.37; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.24 to 0.55, 184 participants). The comparison of combination versus single-agent chemotherapy provides evidence for a survival benefit in favour of combination chemotherapy (HR 0.82; 95% CI 0.74 to 0.90, 1914 participants). The price of this benefit is increased toxicity as a result of combination chemotherapy. When comparing 5-FU/cisplatin-containing combination therapy regimens with versus without anthracyclines (HR 0.77; 95% CI 0.62 to 0.95, 501 participants) and 5-FU/anthracycline-containing combinations with versus without cisplatin (HR 0.82; 95% CI 0.73 to 0.92, 1147 participants) there was a significant survival benefit for regimens including 5-FU, anthracyclines and cisplatin. Both the comparison of irinotecan versus non-irinotecan (HR 0.86; 95% CI 0.73 to 1.02, 639 participants) and docetaxel versus non-docetaxel containing regimens (HR 0.93; 95% CI 0.75 to 1.15, 805 participants) show non-significant overall survival benefits in favour of the irinotecan and docetaxel-containing regimens. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Chemotherapy significantly improves survival in comparison to best supportive care. In addition, combination chemotherapy improves survival compared to single-agent 5-FU. All patients should be tested for their HER-2 status and trastuzumab should be added to a standard fluoropyrimidine/cisplatin regimen in patients with HER-2 positive tumours. Two and three-drug regimens including 5-FU, cisplatin, with or without an anthracycline, as well as irinotecan or docetaxel-containing regimens are reasonable treatment options for HER-2 negative patients.

How effective are policies to reduce gasoline consumption? evaluating a quasi-natural experiment in Spain

Using a panel of 48 provinces for four years we empirically analyze a series of temporary policies aimed at curbing fuel consumption implemented in Spain between March and June 2011. The first policy was a reduction in the speed limit in highways. The second policy was an increase in the biofuel content of fuels used in the transport sector. The third measure was a reduction of 5% in commuting and regional train fares that resulted in two major metropolitan areas reducing their overall fare for public transit. The results indicate that the speed limit reduction in highways reduced gasoline consumption by between 2% and 3%, while an increase in the biofuel content of gasoline increased this consumption. This last result is consistent with experimental evidence that indicates that mileage per liter falls with an increase in the biofuel content in gasolines. As for the reduction in transit fares, we do not find a significant effect for this policy. However, in specifications including the urban transit fare for the major cities in each province the estimated cross-price elasticity of the demand for gasoline -used as a proxy for car use- with respect to the price of transit is within the range reported in the literature. This is important since one of the main eficiency justification for subsidizing public transit rests on the positive value of this parameter and most of the estimates reported in the literature are quite dated.