Ruling out coronary artery disease in primary care: development and validation of a simple prediction rule.

BACKGROUND: Chest pain can be caused by various conditions, with life-threatening cardiac disease being of greatest concern. Prediction scores to rule out coronary artery disease have been developed for use in emergency settings. We developed and validated a simple prediction rule for use in primary care. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional diagnostic study in 74 primary care practices in Germany. Primary care physicians recruited all consecutive patients who presented with chest pain (n = 1249) and recorded symptoms and findings for each patient (derivation cohort). An independent expert panel reviewed follow-up data obtained at six weeks and six months on symptoms, investigations, hospital admissions and medications to determine the presence or absence of coronary artery disease. Adjusted odds ratios of relevant variables were used to develop a prediction rule. We calculated measures of diagnostic accuracy for different cut-off values for the prediction scores using data derived from another prospective primary care study (validation cohort). RESULTS: The prediction rule contained five determinants (age/sex, known vascular disease, patient assumes pain is of cardiac origin, pain is worse during exercise, and pain is not reproducible by palpation), with the score ranging from 0 to 5 points. The area under the curve (receiver operating characteristic curve) was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83-0.91) for the derivation cohort and 0.90 (95% CI 0.87-0.93) for the validation cohort. The best overall discrimination was with a cut-off value of 3 (positive result 3-5 points; negative result <or= 2 points), which had a sensitivity of 87.1% (95% CI 79.9%-94.2%) and a specificity of 80.8% (77.6%-83.9%). INTERPRETATION: The prediction rule for coronary artery disease in primary care proved to be robust in the validation cohort. It can help to rule out coronary artery disease in patients presenting with chest pain in primary care.

Self-reported non-adherence to antiretroviral therapy repeatedly assessed by two questions predicts treatment failure in virologically suppressed patients.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to explore the predictive value of longitudinal self-reported adherence data on viral rebound. METHODS: Individuals in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study on combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) with RNA <50 copies/ml over the previous 3 months and who were interviewed about adherence at least once prior to 1 March 2007 were eligible. Adherence was defined in terms of missed doses of cART (0, 1, 2 or >2) in the previous 28 days. Viral rebound was defined as RNA >500 copies/ml. Cox regression models with time-independent and -dependent covariates were used to evaluate time to viral rebound. RESULTS: A total of 2,664 individuals and 15,530 visits were included. Across all visits, missing doses were reported as follows: 1 dose 14.7%, 2 doses 5.1%, >2 doses 3.8% taking <95% of doses 4.5% and missing > or =2 consecutive doses 3.2%. In total, 308 (11.6%) patients experienced viral rebound. After controlling for confounding variables, self-reported non-adherence remained significantly associated with the rate of occurrence of viral rebound (compared with zero missed doses: 1 dose, hazard ratio [HR] 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.72-1.48; 2 doses, HR 2.17, 95% CI 1.46-3.25; >2 doses, HR 3.66, 95% CI 2.50-5.34). Several variables significantly associated with an increased risk of viral rebound irrespective of adherence were identified: being on a protease inhibitor or triple nucleoside regimen (compared with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor), >5 previous cART regimens, seeing a less-experienced physician, taking co-medication, and a shorter time virally suppressed. CONCLUSIONS: A simple self-report adherence questionnaire repeatedly administered provides a sensitive measure of non-adherence that predicts viral rebound.

Peripheral dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry in the management of osteoporosis: the 2007 ISCD Official Positions.

Peripheral assessment of bone density using photon absorptiometry techniques has been available for over 40 yr. The initial use of radio-isotopes as the photon source has been replaced by the use of X-ray technology. A wide variety of models of single- or dual-energy X-ray measurement tools have been made available for purchase, although not all are still commercially available. The Official Positions of the International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) have been developed following a systematic review of the literature by an ISCD task force and a subsequent Position Development Conference. These cover the technological diversity among peripheral dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (pDXA) devices; define whether pDXA can be used for fracture risk assessment and/or to diagnose osteoporosis; examine whether pDXA can be used to initiate treatment and/or monitor treatment; provide recommendations for pDXA reporting; and review quality assurance and quality control necessary for effective use of pDXA.

Usefulness of heart rate to predict cardiac events in treated patients with high-risk systemic hypertension.

A high heart rate (HR) predicts future cardiovascular events. We explored the predictive value of HR in patients with high-risk hypertension and examined whether blood pressure reduction modifies this association. The participants were 15,193 patients with hypertension enrolled in the Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use Evaluation (VALUE) trial and followed up for 5 years. The HR was assessed from electrocardiographic recordings obtained annually throughout the study period. The primary end point was the interval to cardiac events. After adjustment for confounders, the hazard ratio of the composite cardiac primary end point for a 10-beats/min of the baseline HR increment was 1.16 (95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.20). Compared to the lowest HR quintile, the adjusted hazard ratio in the highest quintile was 1.73 (95% confidence interval 1.46 to 2.04). Compared to the pooled lower quintiles of baseline HR, the annual incidence of primary end point in the top baseline quintile was greater in each of the 5 study years (all p <0.05). The adjusted hazard ratio for the primary end point in the highest in-trial HR heart rate quintile versus the lowest quintile was 1.53 (95% confidence interval 1.26 to 1.85). The incidence of primary end points in the highest in-trial HR group compared to the pooled 4 lower quintiles was 53% greater in patients with well-controlled blood pressure (p <0.001) and 34% greater in those with uncontrolled blood pressure (p = 0.002). In conclusion, an increased HR is a long-term predictor of cardiovascular events in patients with high-risk hypertension. This effect was not modified by good blood pressure control. It is not yet known whether a therapeutic reduction of HR would improve cardiovascular prognosis.

Prospective study on procalcitonin and other systemic infection markers in patients with leukocytosis.

OBJECTIVE: To better assess the diagnosis of an infection in patients presenting at an emergency department with peripheral blood leukocytosis (>10 x 10(9) cells/l) on laboratory testing. METHODS: We prospectively evaluated serum procalcitonin concentration (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR). Patients were divided into two groups according to their final diagnosis: patients with infection and those without infection. PCT, CRP, and ESR were compared between these groups. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values, negative predictive values, receiver operating characteristic curves, and areas under the curves were calculated for each biological measurement. RESULTS: Out of 173 patients, 99 (57%) had a final diagnosis of systemic infection. If a cutoff point of 0.5 ng/ml is considered, procalcitonin concentration had a sensitivity of 0.57, a specificity of 0.85, a negative predictive value of 0.59, and a positive predictive value of 0.84 for the diagnosis of a systemic infection. Adding CRP or ESR to PCT gave no more information (p=0.84). CONCLUSIONS: Only about half of the patients attending the emergency department with leukocytosis were suffering from an infection. Determination of the procalcitonin level may be useful for these patients, particularly in the case of a value higher than 0.5 ng/ml.

Outcome Prediction after Cardiac Arrest Treated with Hypothermia

Rationale: Clinical and electrophysiological prognostic markers of brain anoxia have been mostly evaluated in comatose survivors of out hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) after standard resuscitation, but their predictive value in patients treated with mild induced hypothermia (IH) is unknown. The objective of this study was to identify a predictive score of independent clinical and electrophysiological variables in comatose OHCA survivors treated with IH, aiming at a maximal positive predictive value (PPV) and a high negative predictive value (NPV) for mortality. Methods: We prospectively studied consecutive adult comatose OHCA survivors from April 2006 to May 2009, treated with mild IH to 33-34_C for 24h at the intensive care unit of the Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland. IH was applied using an external cooling method. As soon as subjects passively rewarmed (body temperature >35_C) they underwent EEG and SSEP recordings (off sedation), and were examined by experienced neurologists at least twice. Patients with status epilepticus were treated with AED for at least 24h. A multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of mortality at hospital discharge. These were used to formulate a predictive score. Results: 100 patients were studied; 61 died. Age, gender and OHCA etiology (cardiac vs. non-cardiac) did not differ among survivors and nonsurvivors. Cardiac arrest type (non-ventricular fibrillation vs. ventricular fibrillation), time to return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) >25min, failure to recover all brainstem reflexes, extensor or no motor response to pain, myoclonus, presence of epileptiform discharges on EEG, EEG background unreactive to pain, and bilaterally absent N20 on SSEP, were all significantly associated with mortality. Absent N20 was the only variable showing no false positive results. Multivariable logistic regression identified four independent predictors (Table). These were used to construct the score, and its predictive values were calculated after a cut-off of 0-1 vs. 2-4 predictors. We found a PPV of 1.00 (95% CI: 0.93-1.00), a NPV of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.67-0.91) and an accuracy of 0.93 for mortality. Among 9 patients who were predicted to survive by the score but eventually died, only 1 had absent N20. Conclusions: Pending validation in a larger cohort, this simple score represents a promising tool to identify patients who will survive, and most subjects who will not, after OHCA and IH. Furthermore, while SSEP are 100% predictive of poor outcome but not available in most hospitals, this study identifies EEG background reactivity as an important predictor after OHCA. The score appears robust even without SSEP, suggesting that SSEP and other investigations (e.g., mismatch negativity, serum NSE) might be principally needed to enhance prognostication in the small subgroup of patients failing to improve despite a favorable score.

Recommendations for raloxifene use in daily clinical practice in the Swiss setting.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Raloxifene is the first selective estrogen receptor modulator that has been approved for the treatment and prevention of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women in Europe and in the US. Although raloxifene reduces the risk of invasive breast cancer in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis and in postmenopausal women at high risk for invasive breast cancer, it is approved in that indication in the US but not in the EU. The aim was to characterize the clinical profiles of postmenopausal women expected to benefit most from therapy with raloxifene based on published scientific evidence to date. METHODS: Key individual patient characteristics relevant to the prescription of raloxifene in daily practice were defined by a board of Swiss experts in the fields of menopause and metabolic bone diseases and linked to published scientific evidence. Consensus was reached about translating these insights into daily practice. RESULTS: Through estrogen agonistic effects on bone, raloxifene reduces biochemical markers of bone turnover to premenopausal levels, increases bone mineral density (BMD) at the lumbar spine, proximal femur, and total body, and reduces vertebral fracture risk in women with osteopenia or osteoporosis with and without prevalent vertebral fracture. Through estrogen antagonistic effects on breast tissue, raloxifene reduces the risk of invasive estrogen-receptor positive breast cancer in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis and in postmenopausal women at high risk for invasive breast cancer. Finally, raloxifene increases the incidence of hot flushes, the risk of venous thromboembolic events, and the risk of fatal stroke in postmenopausal women at increased risk for coronary heart disease. Postmenopausal women in whom the use of raloxifene is considered can be categorized in a 2 × 2 matrix reflecting their bone status (osteopenic or osteoporotic based on their BMD T-score by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry) and their breast cancer risk (low or high based on the modified Gail model). Women at high risk of breast cancer should be considered for treatment with raloxifene. CONCLUSION: Postmenopausal women between 50 and 70 years of age without climacteric symptoms with either osteopenia or osteoporosis should be evaluated with regard to their breast cancer risk and considered for treatment with raloxifene within the framework of its contraindications and precautions.

Genomewide association study of atazanavir pharmacokinetics and hyperbilirubinemia in AIDS Clinical Trials Group protocol A5202.

BACKGROUND: Atazanavir-associated hyperbilirubinemia can cause premature discontinuation of atazanavir and avoidance of its initial prescription. We used genomewide genotyping and clinical data to characterize determinants of atazanavir pharmacokinetics and hyperbilirubinemia in AIDS Clinical Trials Group protocol A5202. METHODS: Plasma atazanavir pharmacokinetics and indirect bilirubin concentrations were characterized in HIV-1-infected patients randomized to atazanavir/ritonavir-containing regimens. A subset had genomewide genotype data available. RESULTS: Genomewide assay data were available from 542 participants, of whom 475 also had data on estimated atazanavir clearance and relevant covariates available. Peak bilirubin concentration and relevant covariates were available for 443 participants. By multivariate analysis, higher peak on-treatment bilirubin levels were found to be associated with the UGT1A1 rs887829 T allele (P=6.4×10), higher baseline hemoglobin levels (P=4.9×10), higher baseline bilirubin levels (P=6.7×10), and slower plasma atazanavir clearance (P=8.6×10). For peak bilirubin levels greater than 3.0 mg/dl, the positive predictive value of a baseline bilirubin level of 0.5 mg/dl or higher with hemoglobin concentrations of 14 g/dl or higher was 0.51, which increased to 0.85 with rs887829 TT homozygosity. For peak bilirubin levels of 3.0 mg/dl or lower, the positive predictive value of a baseline bilirubin level less than 0.5 mg/dl with a hemoglobin concentration less than 14 g/dl was 0.91, which increased to 0.96 with rs887829 CC homozygosity. No polymorphism predicted atazanavir pharmacokinetics at genomewide significance. CONCLUSION: Atazanavir-associated hyperbilirubinemia is best predicted by considering UGT1A1 genotype, baseline bilirubin level, and baseline hemoglobin level in combination. Use of ritonavir as a pharmacokinetic enhancer may have abrogated genetic associations with atazanavir pharmacokinetics.

Glasgow Coma Score für den Patienten mit Schädel-Hirn-Trauma [Glasgow Coma Scale in traumatic brain injury].

Even 30 years after its first publication the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) is still used worldwide to describe and assess coma. The GCS consists of three components, the ocular, motor and verbal response to standardized stimulation, and is used as a severity of illness indicator for coma of various origins. The GCS facilitates information transfer and monitoring changes in coma. In addition, it is used as a triage tool in patients with traumatic brain injury. Its prognostic value regarding the outcome after a traumatic brain injury still lacks evidence. One of the main problems is the evaluation of the GCS in sedated, paralysed and/or intubated patients. A multitude of pseudoscores exists but a universal definition has yet to be defined.

CO2 wedged hepatic venography in the evaluation of portal hypertension.

BACKGROUND/AIMS/METHODS During hepatic vein catheterisation, in addition to measurement of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG), iodine wedged retrograde portography can be easily obtained. However, it rarely allows correct visualisation of the portal vein. Recently, CO2 has been suggested to allow better angiographic demonstration of the portal vein than iodine. In this study we investigated the efficacy of CO2 compared with iodinated contrast medium for portal vein imaging and its role in the evaluation of portal hypertension in a series of 100 patients undergoing hepatic vein catheterisation, 71 of whom had liver cirrhosis. RESULTS In the overall series, CO2 venography was markedly superior to iodine, allowing correct visualisation of the different segments of the portal venous system. In addition, CO2, but not iodine, visualised portal-systemic collaterals in 34 patients. In cirrhosis, non-visualisation of the portal vein on CO2 venography occurred in 11 cases; four had portal vein thrombosis and five had communications between different hepatic veins. Among non-cirrhotics, lack of portal vein visualisation had a 90% sensitivity, 88% specificity, 94% negative predictive value, and 83% positive predictive value in the diagnosis of pre-sinusoidal portal hypertension. CONCLUSIONS Visualisation of the venous portal system by CO2 venography is markedly superior to iodine. The use of CO2 wedged portography is a useful and safe complementary procedure during hepatic vein catheterisation which may help to detect portal thrombosis. Also, lack of demonstration of the portal vein in non-cirrhotic patients strongly suggests the presence of pre-sinusoidal portal hypertension.

Osteoporotic fracture risk in elderly women: estimation with quantitative heel US and clinical risk factors

PURPOSE: To derive a prediction rule by using prospectively obtained clinical and bone ultrasonographic (US) data to identify elderly women at risk for osteoporotic fractures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study was approved by the Swiss Ethics Committee. A prediction rule was computed by using data from a 3-year prospective multicenter study to assess the predictive value of heel-bone quantitative US in 6174 Swiss women aged 70-85 years. A quantitative US device to calculate the stiffness index at the heel was used. Baseline characteristics, known risk factors for osteoporosis and fall, and the quantitative US stiffness index were used to elaborate a predictive rule for osteoporotic fracture. Predictive values were determined by using a univariate Cox model and were adjusted with multivariate analysis. RESULTS: There were five risk factors for the incidence of osteoporotic fracture: older age (>75 years) (P < .001), low heel quantitative US stiffness index (<78%) (P < .001), history of fracture (P = .001), recent fall (P = .001), and a failed chair test (P = .029). The score points assigned to these risk factors were as follows: age, 2 (3 if age > 80 years); low quantitative US stiffness index, 5 (7.5 if stiffness index < 60%); history of fracture, 1; recent fall, 1.5; and failed chair test, 1. The cutoff value to obtain a high sensitivity (90%) was 4.5. With this cutoff, 1464 women were at lower risk (score, <4.5) and 4710 were at higher risk (score, >or=4.5) for fracture. Among the higher-risk women, 6.1% had an osteoporotic fracture, versus 1.8% of women at lower risk. Among the women who had a hip fracture, 90% were in the higher-risk group. CONCLUSION: A prediction rule obtained by using quantitative US stiffness index and four clinical risk factors helped discriminate, with high sensitivity, women at higher versus those at lower risk for osteoporotic fracture.

Clinical usefulness of temporal artery biopsy.

To assess the diagnostic usefulness of temporal artery biopsy in temporal arteritis (TA) and establish clinical features capable of predicting its positivity we have retrospectively studied the biopsy specimens and the clinical features of 103 patients who had undergone temporal artery biopsy. Temporal artery biopsy reached a positive predictive value of 90.2% with respect to the final diagnosis based on the criteria proposed by Ellis and Ralston and the clinical course. The simultaneous presence of recent onset headache, jaw claudication, and abnormalities of the temporal arteries on physical examination had a specificity of 94.8% with respect to the histological diagnosis and of 100% with respect to final diagnosis. The presence of any of these clinical features, though of little specificity (34.4%), had a sensitivity of 100% with respect to histological diagnosis, selecting a group of patients in whom temporal artery biopsy has more discriminative value.

The impact of fasting on the interpretation of triglyceride levels for predicting myocardial infarction risk in HIV-positive individuals: the D:A:D study.

We assessed whether fasting modifies the prognostic value of these measurements for the risk of myocardial infarction (MI). Analyses used mixed effect models and Poisson regression. After confounders were controlled for, fasting triglyceride levels were, on average, 0.122 mmol/L lower than nonfasting levels. Each 2-fold increase in the latest triglyceride level was associated with a 38% increase in MI risk (relative rate, 1.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-1.51); fasting status did not modify this association. Our results suggest that it may not be necessary to restrict analyses to fasting measurements when considering MI risk.

Accuracy of prehospital triage of trauma patients by emergency physicians: a retrospective study in western Switzerland.

OBJECTIVE: Accurate identification of major trauma patients in the prehospital setting positively affects survival and resource utilization. Triage algorithms using predictive criteria of injury severity have been identified in paramedic-based prehospital systems. Our rescue system is based on prehospital paramedics and emergency physicians. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the prehospital triage performed by physicians and to identify the predictive factors leading to errors of triage.METHODS: Retrospective study of trauma patients triaged by physicians. Prehospital triage was analyzed using criteria defining major trauma victims (MTVs, Injury Severity Score >15, admission to ICU, need for immediate surgery and death within 48 h). Adequate triage was defined as MTVs oriented to the trauma centre or non-MTV (NMTV) oriented to regional hospitals.RESULTS: One thousand six hundred and eighti-five patients (blunt trauma 96%) were included (558 MTV and 1127 NMTV). Triage was adequate in 1455 patients (86.4%). Overtriage occurred in 171 cases (10.1%) and undertriage in 59 cases (3.5%). Sensitivity and specificity was 90 and 85%, respectively, whereas positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 75 and 94%, respectively. Using logistic regression analysis, significant (P<0.05) predictors of undertriage were head or thorax injuries (odds ratio >2.5). Predictors of overtriage were paediatric age group, pedestrian or 2 wheel-vehicle road traffic accidents (odds ratio >2.0).CONCLUSION: Physicians using clinical judgement provide effective prehospital triage of trauma patients. Only a few factors predicting errors in triage process were identified in this study.

Relationship between autonomic neuropathy and thermogenesis in non diabetic and diabetic obese patients.

Autonomic neuropathy is a well known complication of diabetes. Diabetes is often superimposed on obesity. A reduction in the variability of the heart rate in the resting state has been demonstrated in 16 obese diabetic subjects as well as in 34 obese non-diabetic subjects. The coefficient of variation (CV) of the heart rate during 30 minutes of resting was significantly decreased in both obese groups (3.9 +/- 0.2% for the diabetics; 5.2 +/- 0.2%, p less than 0.01 for the non diabetics) as compared to their own controls (4.5 +/- 0.6% and 6.5 +/- 0.4%, respectively). Age also contributes to decreased heart rate variability. Furthermore, this defect of autonomic function has been correlated with the blunted glucose-induced thermogenesis (GIT) seen in both obese groups (r = 0.52, p. less than 0.001): the increase in energy expenditure over basal values following a 100 g oral glucose load was only 4.8 +/- 0.8% for the diabetic obese group (p less than 0.001), and 8.5 +/- 0.7% for the non-diabetic obese group (p less than 0.001) as opposed to their own controls (12.4 +/- 1.3% and 13.3 +/- 0.6% respectively). Measurement of the variability of heart rate in obese individuals may be of predictive value in assessing blunted glucose-induced thermogenesis in non diabetic and diabetic obese patients.