Building adaptable agent-based models – application to the electricity distribution network

Agent-based modelling (ABM), like other modelling techniques, is used to answer specific questions from real world systems that could otherwise be expensive or impractical. Its recent gain in popularity can be attributed to some degree to its capacity to use information at a fine level of detail of the system, both geographically and temporally, and generate information at a higher level, where emerging patterns can be observed. This technique is data-intensive, as explicit data at a fine level of detail is used and it is computer-intensive as many interactions between agents, which can learn and have a goal, are required. With the growing availability of data and the increase in computer power, these concerns are however fading. Nonetheless, being able to update or extend the model as more information becomes available can become problematic, because of the tight coupling of the agents and their dependence on the data, especially when modelling very large systems. One large system to which ABM is currently applied is the electricity distribution where thousands of agents representing the network and the consumers’ behaviours are interacting with one another. A framework that aims at answering a range of questions regarding the potential evolution of the grid has been developed and is presented here. It uses agent-based modelling to represent the engineering infrastructure of the distribution network and has been built with flexibility and extensibility in mind. What distinguishes the method presented here from the usual ABMs is that this ABM has been developed in a compositional manner. This encompasses not only the software tool, which core is named MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model) but the model itself. Using such approach enables the model to be extended as more information becomes available or modified as the electricity system evolves, leading to an adaptable model. Two well-known modularity principles in the software engineering domain are information hiding and separation of concerns. These principles were used to develop the agent-based model on top of OSGi and Eclipse plugins which have good support for modularity. Information regarding the model entities was separated into a) assets which describe the entities’ physical characteristics, and b) agents which describe their behaviour according to their goal and previous learning experiences. This approach diverges from the traditional approach where both aspects are often conflated. It has many advantages in terms of reusability of one or the other aspect for different purposes as well as composability when building simulations. For example, the way an asset is used on a network can greatly vary while its physical characteristics are the same – this is the case for two identical battery systems which usage will vary depending on the purpose of their installation. While any battery can be described by its physical properties (e.g. capacity, lifetime, and depth of discharge), its behaviour will vary depending on who is using it and what their aim is. The model is populated using data describing both aspects (physical characteristics and behaviour) and can be updated as required depending on what simulation is to be run. For example, data can be used to describe the environment to which the agents respond to – e.g. weather for solar panels, or to describe the assets and their relation to one another – e.g. the network assets. Finally, when running a simulation, MODAM calls on its module manager that coordinates the different plugins, automates the creation of the assets and agents using factories, and schedules their execution which can be done sequentially or in parallel for faster execution. Building agent-based models in this way has proven fast when adding new complex behaviours, as well as new types of assets. Simulations have been run to understand the potential impact of changes on the network in terms of assets (e.g. installation of decentralised generators) or behaviours (e.g. response to different management aims). While this platform has been developed within the context of a project focussing on the electricity domain, the core of the software, MODAM, can be extended to other domains such as transport which is part of future work with the addition of electric vehicles.

Physical activity patterns and correlates among adults from a developing country : the Sri Lanka Diabetes and Cardiovascular Study

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate patterns of physical activity (PA), the prevalence of physical inactivity and the relationships between PA and sociodemographic, clinical and biochemical parameters among Sri Lankan adults. DESIGN: Descriptive cross-sectional study. SETTING: Nationally representative population-based survey conducted in Sri Lanka. SUBJECTS: Data on PA and associated details were obtained from 5000 adults. PA was assessed using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (short-form). A binary logistic regression analysis was performed using the dichotomous variable ‘health-enhancing PA’ (05‘active’, 15‘inactive’). RESULTS: Sample size was 4485. Mean age was 46.1 (SD 15.1) years, 39.5% were males. The mean weekly total MET (metabolic equivalents of task) minutes of PA among the study population was 4703 (SD 4369). Males (5464 (SD 5452)) had a significantly higher weekly total MET minutes than females (4205 (SD 3394); P,0.001). Rural adults (5175 (SD 4583)) were significantly more active than urban adults (2956 (SD 2847); P<0.001). Tamils had the highest mean weekly total MET minutes among ethnicities. Those with tertiary education had lowest mean weekly total MET minutes. In all adults 60.0% were in the ‘highly active’ category, while only 11.0% were ‘inactive’ (males 14.6%, females 8.7%; P<0.001). Of the ‘highly active’ adults, 85.8% were residing in rural areas. Results of the binary logistic regression analysis indicated that female gender (OR52?1), age .70 years (OR53.8), urban living (OR52.5), Muslim ethnicity (OR52.7), tertiary education (OR53.6), obesity (OR51.8), diabetes (OR51.6), hypertension (OR51.2) and metabolic syndrome (OR51.3) were all associated with significantly increased odds of being physically ‘inactive’. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of Sri Lankan adults were ‘highly active’ physically. Female gender, older age, urban living, Muslim ethnicity and tertiary education were all significant predictors of physical inactivity. Physical inactivity was associated with obesity, diabetes, hypertension and metabolic syndrome.

Light exposure and physical activity in myopic and emmetropic children

Purpose: To objectively assess daily light exposure and physical activity levels in myopic and emmetropic children. Methods: One hundred and two children (41 myopes and 61 emmetropes) aged 10 to 15 years old had simultaneous objective measures of ambient light exposure and physical activity collected over a 2 week period during school term, using a wrist worn actigraphy device (Actiwatch-2). Measures of visible light illuminance and physical activity were captured every 30 seconds, 24 hours a day over this period. Mean hourly light exposure and physical activity for weekdays and weekends were examined. To ensure that seasonal variations didn’t confound comparisons, the light and activity data of the 41 myopes, was compared with 41 age and gender matched emmetropes who wore the Actiwatch over the same two week period. Results: Mean light exposure and physical activity for all 101 children with valid data exhibited significant changes with time of day and day of the week (p<0.0001). On average greater daily light exposure occurred on weekends compared to weekdays (p<0.05), and greater physical activity occurred on weekdays compared to weekends (p<0.01). Myopic children (n = 41, mean daily light exposure 915 ± 519 lux) exhibited significantly lower average light exposure compared to 41 age and gender matched emmetropic children (1272 ± 625 lux, p<0.01). The amount of daily time spent in bright light conditions (>1000 lux) was also significantly greater in emmetropes (127 ± 51 minutes) compared to myopes (91 ± 44 minutes, p<0.001). No significant differences were found between the average daily physical activity levels of myopes and emmetropes (p>0.05). Conclusions: Myopic children exhibit significantly lower daily light exposure, but no significant difference in physical activity compared to emmetropic children. This suggests the important factor involved in documented associations between myopia and outdoor activity is likely exposure to bright outdoor light rather than greater physical activity.

Variations in acculturation and Australian physical education teacher education students' receptiveness to an alternative pedagogical approach to games teaching

Background The development of intelligent, thinking performers as a central theme in Physical Education curriculum documents worldwide has highlighted the need for an evolution of teaching styles from the dominant reproductive approach. This has prompted an Australian university to change the content and delivery of a games unit within their Physical Education Teacher Education (PETE) course and adopt a productive student centred approach that is compatible with current curriculum directives. The significance of prospective physical educators’ biographies on their receptiveness to this pedagogical innovation was studied to help recognise and understand potential differences and subsequently guide programme development to help improve the impact of teacher education. Purpose To investigate whether past school and sporting experiences are powerful influences on Australian PETE recruits’ initial perspectives about effective physical education teaching practice and their receptiveness to an alternative pedagogical approach. Participants and Setting 49 first year pre-service PETE students (53% male; 47% female; mean age 18.88 ± 1.57 years) undertaking a compulsory unit on games teaching at an Australian university volunteered to take part in the study and were grouped according to their highest level of representation in games, either school/club (n=13), regional (n=20), or state/national (n=16). Students experienced the constraints-led approach as learners and teachers during an 8-week games unit informed by nonlinear pedagogy and underpinned by motor learning theory. Data collection and Analysis Prior to the commencement of the unit participants completed part A of a two part mixed response questionnaire aimed at gathering data about their physical education and sporting background. The data were summarised using descriptive statistics. Pre and post intervention, participants completed part B responding, via Likert Scale with their opinion of the importance of each sub-component of the traditional reproductive style for an effective games teaching session. This resulted in a traditional reproductive games teaching belief score. For each sub-component, participants were invited to respond in more detail to justify their opinions. A one-way between groups analysis of variance (ANOVA), Tukey’s HSD Post Hoc Test and a two - tailed, paired samples t test were used to analyse the quantitative data. Content analysis was used to analyse the qualitative data. Findings The traditional, reproductive approach was the most frequently reported teaching approach used by the physical education teachers and sports coaches of participants in all groups. Prior to the commencement of the alternate games unit, participants in each representative level group held very strong custodial traditional reproductive games teaching beliefs. After experiencing the alternative games unit there were statistically significant differences in the traditional reproductive games teaching belief mean scores for each group, This combined with participants’ qualitative responses indicated a receptiveness to the alternative pedagogy. Conclusions The results of this present study show that, contrary to previous research undertaken in North America, in Australia, it is possible for PETE educators to change beliefs in order to overcome the constraint of acculturation and provide PETE students with the knowledge, understanding and belief in an alternate approach to teaching games in physical education compatible with curriculum documents.

What factors influence nurses’ assessment practices? Development of the Barriers to Nurses’ use of Physical Assessment Scale

Aim To develop and psychometrically test the Barriers to Nurses’ use of Physical Assessment Scale. Background There is growing evidence of failure to recognise hospitalised patients at risk of clinical deterioration, in part due to inadequate physical assessment by nurses. Yet, little is known about the barriers to nurses’ use of physical assessment in the acute hospital setting and no validated scales have been published. Design Instrument development study. Method Scale development was based on a comprehensive literature review, focus groups, expert review and psychometric evaluation. The scale was administered to 434 acute care registered nurses working at a large Australian teaching hospital between June and July 2013. Psychometric analysis included factor analysis, model fit statistics and reliability testing. Results The final scale was reduced to 38 items representing seven factors, together accounting for 57.7% of the variance: (1) reliance on others and technology, (2) lack of time and interruptions, (3) ward culture, (4) lack of confidence, (5) lack of nursing role models, (6) lack of influence on patient care, and; (7) specialty area. Internal reliability ranged from .70 to .86. Conclusion Findings provide initial evidence for the validity and reliability of the Barriers to Nurses’ use of Physical Assessment Scale and point to the importance of understanding the organisational determinants of nurses’ assessment practices. The new scale has potential clinical and research applications to support nursing assessment in acute care settings.

Vaccination of koalas with a recombinant Chlamydia pecorum major outer membrane protein induces antibodies of different specificity compared to those following a natural live infection

Chlamydial infection in koalas is common across the east coast of Australia and causes significant morbidity, infertility and mortality. An effective vaccine to prevent the adverse consequences of chlamydial infections in koalas (particularly blindness and infertility in females) would provide an important management tool to prevent further population decline of this species. An important step towards developing a vaccine in koalas is to understand the host immune response to chlamydial infection. In this study, we used the Pepscan methodology to identify B cell epitopes across the Major Outer Membrane Protein (MOMP) of four C. pecorum strains/genotypes that are recognized, either following (a) natural live infection or (b) administration of a recombinant MOMP vaccine. Plasma antibodies from the koalas naturally infected with a C. pecorum G genotype strain recognised the epitopes located in the variable domain (VD) four of MOMP G and also VD4 of MOMP H. By comparison, plasma antibodies from an animal infected with a C. pecorum F genotype strain recognised epitopes in VD1, 2 and 4 of MOMP F, but not from other genotype MOMPs. When Chlamydia-free koalas were immunised with recombinant MOMP protein they produced antibodies not only against epitopes in the VDs but also in conserved domains of MOMP. Naturally infected koalas immunised with recombinant MOMP protein also produced antibodies against epitopes in the conserved domains. This work paves the way for further refinement of a MOMP-based Chlamydia vaccine that will offer wide cross-protection against the variety of chlamydial infections circulating in wild koala populations.

An exploration of the professional competencies required in engineering asset management

Engineering asset management (EAM) is a rapidly growing and developing field. However, efforts to select and develop engineers in this area are complicated by our lack of understanding of the full range of competencies required to perform. This exploratory study sought to clarify and categorise the professional competencies required of individuals at different hierarchical levels within EAM. Data from 14 field interviews, 61 online surveys, and 10 expert panel interviews were used to develop an initial professional competency framework. Overall, nine competency clusters were identified. These clusters indicate that engineers working in this field need to be able to collaborate and influence others, complete objectives within organisational guidelines, and be able to manage themselves effectively. Limitations and potential uses of this framework in engineering education and research are discussed.

Stagnancy in Indonesia’s reformed state asset management policies and practices : a wicked problem?

The policies and regulations governing the practice of state asset management have emerged as an urgent question among many countries worldwide for there is heightened awareness of the complex and crucial role that state assets play in public service provision. Indonesia is an example of such country, introducing a ‘big-bang’ reform in state asset management laws, policies, regulations, and technical guidelines. Indonesia exemplified its enthusiasm in reforming state asset management policies and practices through the establishment of the Directorate General of State Assets in 2006. The Directorate General of State Assets have stressed the new direction that it is taking state asset management laws and policies through the introduction of Republic of Indonesia Law Number 38 Year 2008, which is an amended regulation overruling Republic of Indonesia Law Number 6 Year 2006 on Central/Regional Government State Asset Management. Law number 38/2008 aims to further exemplify good governance principles and puts forward a ‘the highest and best use of assets’ principle in state asset management. The purpose of this study is to explore and analyze specific contributing influences to state asset management practices, answering the question why innovative state asset management policy implementation is stagnant. The methodology of this study is that of qualitative case study approach, utilizing empirical data sample of four Indonesian regional governments. Through a thematic analytical approach this study provides an in-depth analysis of each influencing factors to state asset management reform. Such analysis suggests the potential of an ‘excuse rhetoric’; whereby the influencing factors identified are a smoke-screen, or are myths that public policy makers and implementers believe in, as a means to ex-plain stagnant implementation of innovative state asset management practice. Thus this study offers deeper insights of the intricate web that influences state as-set management innovative policies to state asset management policy makers; to be taken into consideration in future policy writing.

A Cyber-Physical System Simulator for risk-free transport studies

The article introduces a novel platform for conducting controlled and risk-free driving and traveling behavior studies, called Cyber-Physical System Simulator (CPSS). The key features of CPSS are: (1) simulation of multiuser immersive driving in a threedimensional (3D) virtual environment; (2) integration of traffic and communication simulators with human driving based on dedicated middleware; and (3) accessibility of multiuser driving simulator on popular software and hardware platforms. This combination of features allows us to easily collect large-scale data on interesting phenomena regarding the interaction between multiple user drivers, which is not possible with current single-user driving simulators. The core original contribution of this article is threefold: (1) we introduce a multiuser driving simulator based on DiVE, our original massively multiuser networked 3D virtual environment; (2) we introduce OpenV2X, a middleware for simulating vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle to infrastructure communication; and (3) we present two experiments based on our CPSS platform. The first experiment investigates the “rubbernecking” phenomenon, where a platoon of four user drivers experiences an accident in the oncoming direction of traffic. Second, we report on a pilot study about the effectiveness of a Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems advisory system.

Promoting active lifestyles in young children: investigating mothers’ decisions about their child’s physical activity and screen time behaviours

Objectives Given increasing trends of obesity being noted from early in life and that active lifestyles track across time, it is important that children at a very young age be active to combat a foundation of unhealthy behaviours forming. This study investigated, within a theory of planned behaviour (TPB) framework, factors which influence mothers’ decisions about their child’s 1) adequate physical activity (PA) and 2) limited screen time behaviours. Methods Mothers (N = 162) completed a main questionnaire, via on-line or paper-based administration, which comprised standard TPB items in addition to measures of planning and background demographic variables. One week later, consenting mothers completed a follow-up telephone questionnaire which assessed the decisions they had made regarding their child’s PA and screen time behaviours during the previous week. Results Hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed support for the predictive model, explaining an overall 73% and 78% of the variance in mothers’ intention and 38% and 53% of the variance in mothers’ decisions to ensure their child engages in adequate PA and limited screen time, respectively. Attitude and subjective norms predicted intention in both target behaviours, as did intentions with behaviour. Contrary to predictions, perceived behavioural control (PBC) in PA behaviour and planning in screen time behaviour were not significant predictors of intention, neither was PBC a predictor of either behaviour. Conclusions The findings illustrate the various roles that psycho-social factors play in mothers’ decisions to ensure their child engages in active lifestyle behaviours which can help to inform future intervention programs aimed at combating very young children’s inactivity.

Do community-wide interventions increase physical activity? S1TEP

Background Not getting enough physical activity leads to poorer health. Regular physical activity can reduce the risk of chronic disease and improve one’s health and well-being. The lack of physical activity is a common and growing problem in many countries. We sought to evaluate the effects of community wide, multi-strategic interventions upon the physical activity patterns of populations. Method We undertook a Cochrane Systematic Review which included an extensive search of databases, including studies which met pre-determined criteria, and conducted independent risk of bias assessment and data extraction. Results After the selection process, 25 studies were included in the review. The strategies varied by the number and type of components and their intensity. No studies were identified as low risk of bias. Sixteen studies were identified as having a high risk of bias and thus untrustworthy. Nine studies were of considered to have an unclear risk of bias and some studies held back data they collected. The effects reported were inconsistent across the studies and the measures. Some of the better designed studies showed no improvement in measures of physical activity. Interventions which have an environmental change component seemed to be a promising direction. Those interventions which were primarily a mass media campaign were less likely to be successful. Conclusions Although numerous studies have been undertaken, there is considerable inconsistency in the findings of the available studies and this is confounded by serious methodological issues within the included studies. Simply combining interventions does not necessarily result in increased physical activity as many such studies, including some long term programs, failed to demonstrate efficacy. There is a clear need for well-designed studies and these studies should focus on the quality of measurement of physical activity. The review is currently being updated with newer studies.

Evidence of effectiveness : high level synthesis of research to prevent obesity and increase physical activity in children

Background Prevention of childhood obesity is a public health priority for Malaysia and many other countries. Physical activity for children is also decreasing at an alarming rate. Both conditions are associated with non-communicable diseases and with significant morbidity and mortality in later life. Systematic reviews of public health interventions provide a useful summary to inform public health practice by combining the results of a range of research studies on a specific intervention into a single report. Systematic reviews are deemed most valuable for health program development and evidence based practice. Unfortunately, many policy makers and practitioners are simply unaware of the evidence: which strategies which are most likely to provide benefit; and which strategies are known to be harmful or useless. This presentation provides a “birds eye” overview based upon recent (since 2007 to present) high quality systematic reviews of public health interventions. Method HealthEvidece.org and the Cochrane Library were searched for systematic reviews which evaluated interventions targeting obesity prevention and increasing physical activity for children. The findings of the included reviews were themed and summarized. Results Seven reviews were identified addressing obesity in the early years, and fifteen reviews addressing obesity more broadly in childhood. Additional reviews were identified aimed at increasing physical activity. The synthesis shows several strategies to be effective, however many popular strategies clearly are not. Several of the reviews were inconclusive due to an absence of robust primary studies. Amongst the findings, interventions undertaken in the school setting appear very promising. Conclusions There is significant evidence from systematic reviews to guide public health practice and policy, and to inform future research.

The salt dependence of DNA recognition by NF-kappaB p50 : a detailed kinetic analysis of the effects on affinityand specificity

The binding kinetics of NF-kappaB p50 to the Ig-kappaB site and to a DNA duplex with no specific binding site were determined under varying conditions of potassium chloride concentration using a surface plasmonresonance biosensor. Association and dissociation rate constants were measured enabling calculation of the dissociation constants. Under previously established high affinity buffer conditions, the k a for both sequences was in the order of 10(7) M-1s-1whilst the k d values varied 600-fold in a sequence-dependent manner between 10(-1) and 10(-4 )s-1, suggesting that the selectivity of p50 for different sequences is mediated primarily through sequence-dependent dissociation rates. The calculated K D value for the Ig-kappaB sequence was 16 pM, whilst the K D for the non-specific sequence was 9.9 nM. As the ionic strength increased to levels which are closer to that of the cellular environment, the binding of p50 to the non-specific sequence was abolished whilst the specific affinity dropped to nanomolar levels. From these results, a mechanism is proposed in which p50 binds specific sequences with high affinity whilst binding non-specific sequences weakly enough to allow efficient searching of the DNA.

Pulsed wall jet simulation of a stationary thunderstorm downburst, Part A: Physical structure and flow field characterization

A pulsed wall jet has been used to simulate the gust front of a thunderstorm downburst. Flow visualization, wind speed and surface pressure measurements were obtained. The characteristics of the hypothesized ring vortex of a full-scale downburst were reproduced at a scale estimated to be 1:3000.

Sustainability in post disaster road infrastructure recovery projects and asset management

Civil infrastructure and especially roads are being impacted with increasing frequency by flood, Tsunami, cyclone related natural and manmade disasters in the world. Responding to such events and in preparing for more regular and intense climate-change induced events in future, the road governing agencies are reviewing how postdisaster road infrastructure recovery projects are best planned and delivered. In particular, there is awareness that rebuilding such infrastructure require sustainable asset management strategies across economic, environmental and social dimensions. A comprehensive asset management framework for pre and post disaster situations can minimize negative impacts on our communities, economy and environment. This research paper is focused on post disaster management in road infrastructures and road infrastructure asset management strategies used by road authorities. Analyzing the implications of disruption to transport network and associated services is an important part of preparing local and regional responses to the impacts of disasters. This research paper will contribute to strategic infrastructure asset planning, management leading to safe, efficient and integrated transport system that supports sustainable economic, social and environmental outcomes. This paper also focuses on proper asset management, governance and engineering principles which should be followed and adopted in post disaster recovery projects to maximize sustainability in environmental, social and economic dimensions.