Broker use and the cost of liquidity in commercial real estate investment

Purpose – Commercial real estate is a highly specific asset: heterogeneous, indivisible and with less information transparency than most other commonly held investment assets. These attributes encourage the use of intermediaries during asset acquisition and disposal. However, there are few attempts to explain the use of different brokerage models (with differing costs) in different markets. This study aims to address this gap. Design/methodology/approach – The study analyses 9,338 real estate transactions in London and New York City from 2001 to 2011. Data are provided by Real Capital Analytics and cover over $450 billion of investments in this period. Brokerage trends in the two cities are compared and probit regressions are used to test whether the decision to transact with broker representation varies with investor or asset characteristics. Findings – Results indicate greater use of brokerage in London, especially by purchasers. This persists when data are disaggregated by sector, time or investor type, pointing to the role of local market culture and institutions in shaping brokerage models and transaction costs. Within each city, the nature of the investors involved seems to be a more significant influence on broker use than the characteristics of the assets being traded. Originality/value – Brokerage costs are the single largest non-tax charge to an investor when trading commercial real estate, yet there is little research in this area. This study examines the role of brokers and provides empirical evidence on factors that influence the use and mode of brokerage in two major investment destinations.

Influence of SNPs in nutrient-sensitive candidate genes and gene–diet interactions on blood lipids: the DiOGenes study

Blood lipid response to a given dietary intervention could be determined by the effect of diet, gene variants or gene–diet interactions. The objective of the present study was to investigate whether variants in presumed nutrient-sensitive genes involved in lipid metabolism modified lipid profile after weight loss and in response to a given diet, among overweight European adults participating in the Diet Obesity and Genes study. By multiple linear regressions, 240 SNPs in twenty-four candidate genes were investigated for SNP main and SNP–diet interaction effects on total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol and TAG after an 8-week low-energy diet (only main effect), and a 6-month ad libitum weight maintenance diet, with different contents of dietary protein or glycaemic index. After adjusting for multiple testing, a SNP–dietary protein interaction effect on TAG was identified for lipin 1 (LPIN1) rs4315495, with a decrease in TAG of − 0·26 mmol/l per A-allele/protein unit (95 % CI − 0·38, − 0·14, P= 0·000043). In conclusion, we investigated SNP–diet interactions for blood lipid profiles for 240 SNPs in twenty-four candidate genes, selected for their involvement in lipid metabolism pathways, and identified one significant interaction between LPIN1 rs4315495 and dietary protein for TAG concentration.

Participatory research approaches in the development of improved management practices in indigenous chickens production systems with smallholder farmers in Kenya

This thesis is concerned with development of improved management practices in indigenous chicken production systems in a research process that includes participatory approaches with smallholder farmers and other stakeholders in Kenya. The research process involved a wide range of activities that included on-station experiments, field surveys, stakeholder consultations in workshops, seminars and visits, and on-farm farmer participatory research to evaluate the effect of some improved management interventions on production performance of indigenous chickens. The participatory research was greatly informed from collective experiences and lessons of the previous activities. The on-station studies focused on hatching, growth and nutritional characteristics of the indigenous chickens. Four research publications from these studies are included in this thesis. Quantitative statistical analyses were applied and they involved use of growth models estimated with non-linear regressions for the growth characteristics, chi-square determinations to investigate differences among different reciprocal crosses of indigenous chickens and general linear models and covariance determination for the nutrition study. The on-station studies brought greater understanding of performance and production characteristics of indigenous chickens and the influence of management practices on these characteristics. The field surveys and stakeholder consultations helped in understanding the overarching issues affecting the productivity of the indigenous chickens systems and their place in the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. These activities created strong networking opportunities with stakeholders from a wide spectrum. The on-farm farmer participatory research involved selection of 200 farmers in five regions followed by training and introduction of interventions on improved management practices which included housing, vaccination, deworming and feed supplementation. Implementation and monitoring was mainly done by individual farmers continuously for close to one and half years. Six quarterly visits to the farms were made by the research team to monitor and provide support for on-going project activities. The data collected has been analysed for 5 consecutive 3-monthly periods. Descriptive and inferential statistics were applied to analyse the data collected involving treatment applications, production characteristics and flock demography characteristics. Out of the 200 farmers initially selected, 173 had records on treatment applications and flock demography characteristics while 127 farmers had records on production characteristics. The demographic analysis with a dissimilarity index of flock size produced 7 distinct farm groups from among the 173 farms. Two of these farm groups were represented in similar numbers in each of the five regions. The research process also involved a number of dissemination and communication strategies that have brought the process and project outcomes into the domain of accessibility by wider readership locally and globally. These include workshops, seminars, field visits and consultations, local and international conferences, electronic conferencing, publications and personal communication via emailing and conventional posting. A number of research and development proposals were also developed based on the knowledge and experiences gained from the research process. The thesis captures the research process activities and outcomes in 8 chapters which include in ascending order – introduction, theoretical concepts underpinning FPR, research methodology and process, on-station research output, FPR descriptive statistical analysis, FPR inferential statistical analysis on production characteristics, FPR demographic analysis and conclusions. Various research approaches both quantitative and qualitative have been applied in the research process indicating the possibilities and importance of combining both systems for greater understanding of issues being studied. In our case, participatory studies of the improved management of indigenous chickens indicates their potential importance as livelihood assets for poor people.

Extreme bounds of democracy

What determines the emergence and survival of democracy? The authors apply extreme bounds analysis to test the robustness of fifty-nine factors proposed in the literature, evaluating over three million regressions with data from 165 countries from 1976 to 2002. The most robust determinants of the transition to democracy are gross domestic product (GDP) growth (a negative effect), past transitions (a positive effect), and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development membership (a positive effect). There is some evidence that fuel exporters and Muslim countries are less likely to see democracy emerge, although the latter finding is driven entirely by oil-producing Muslim countries. Regarding the survival of democracy, the most robust determinants are GDP per capita (a positive effect) and past transitions (a negative effect). There is some evidence that having a former military leader as the chief executive has a negative effect, while having other democracies as neighbors has a reinforcing effect.

Lock, stock, and barrel: a comprehensive assessment of the determinants of terror

We assess the robustness of previous findings on the determinants of terrorism. Using extreme bound analysis, the three most comprehensive terrorism datasets, and focusing on the three most commonly analyzed aspects of terrorist activity, i.e., location, victim, and perpetrator, we re-assess the effect of 65 proposed correlates. Evaluating around 13.4 million regressions, we find 18 variables to be robustly associated with the number of incidents occurring in a given country-year, 15 variables with attacks against citizens from a particular country in a given year, and six variables with attacks perpetrated by citizens of a particular country in a given year.

An event-based approach to understanding decadal fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Many previous studies have shown that unforced climate model simulations exhibit decadal-scale fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and that this variability can have impacts on surface climate fields. However, the robustness of these surface fingerprints across different models is less clear. Furthermore, with the potential for coupled feedbacks that may amplify or damp the response, it is not known whether the associated climate signals are linearly related to the strength of the AMOC changes, or if the fluctuation events exhibit nonlinear behaviour with respect to their strength or polarity. To explore these questions, we introduce an objective and flexible method for identifying the largest natural AMOC fluctuation events in multicentennial/multimillennial simulations of a variety of coupled climate models. The characteristics of the events are explored, including their magnitude, meridional coherence and spatial structure, as well as links with ocean heat transport and the horizontal circulation. The surface fingerprints in ocean temperature and salinity are examined, and compared with the results of linear regression analysis. It is found that the regressions generally provide a good indication of the surface changes associated with the largest AMOC events. However, there are some exceptions, including a nonlinear change in the atmospheric pressure signal, particularly at high latitudes, in HadCM3. Some asymmetries are also found between the changes associated with positive and negative AMOC events in the same model. Composite analysis suggests that there are signals that are robust across the largest AMOC events in each model, which provides reassurance that the surface changes associated with one particular event will be similar to those expected from regression analysis. However, large differences are found between the AMOC fingerprints in different models, which may hinder the prediction and attribution of such events in reality.

Tensor regression based on linked multiway parameter analysis

Classical regression methods take vectors as covariates and estimate the corresponding vectors of regression parameters. When addressing regression problems on covariates of more complex form such as multi-dimensional arrays (i.e. tensors), traditional computational models can be severely compromised by ultrahigh dimensionality as well as complex structure. By exploiting the special structure of tensor covariates, the tensor regression model provides a promising solution to reduce the model’s dimensionality to a manageable level, thus leading to efficient estimation. Most of the existing tensor-based methods independently estimate each individual regression problem based on tensor decomposition which allows the simultaneous projections of an input tensor to more than one direction along each mode. As a matter of fact, multi-dimensional data are collected under the same or very similar conditions, so that data share some common latent components but can also have their own independent parameters for each regression task. Therefore, it is beneficial to analyse regression parameters among all the regressions in a linked way. In this paper, we propose a tensor regression model based on Tucker Decomposition, which identifies not only the common components of parameters across all the regression tasks, but also independent factors contributing to each particular regression task simultaneously. Under this paradigm, the number of independent parameters along each mode is constrained by a sparsity-preserving regulariser. Linked multiway parameter analysis and sparsity modeling further reduce the total number of parameters, with lower memory cost than their tensor-based counterparts. The effectiveness of the new method is demonstrated on real data sets.

Carotenoids but not flavonoids are associated with improvements in spatial working memory in younger adults in a flavonoid-rich v. -poor fruit and vegetable intervention study

Findings from animal studies suggest that components of fruit and vegetables (F&V) may protect against, and even reverse, age-related decline(1,2) in aspects of cognitive functioning such as spatial working memory (SWM). Human subjects in vivo and in vitro studies indicate that anti-inflammatory, anti-oxidant and cell-signalling properties of flavonoids and carotenoids, non-nutrient components of F&V, may underpin this protective effect(3–5). The Flavonoid University of Reading Study (FLAVURS), designed to explore the dose-response relationship between dietary F&V flavonoids and CVD, enabled the investigation of such an association with SWM. FLAVURS is an 18-week parallel three-arm randomised controlled dietary intervention trial with four time points, measured at 6-weekly intervals from baseline. Low F&V consumers at risk of CVD aged 26–70 years were randomly assigned to high flavonoid (HF), low flavonoid (LF) or control group. F&V intake increased by two daily 80 g portions every 6 weeks, with either HF or LF F&V, in addition to each participant's habitual diet, while controls maintained their habitual diet. At each visit, participants completed a cognitive test battery with SWM as the primary outcome. The HF group showed significantly higher levels of urinary flavonoids than LF or controls at 12 weeks (P<0.001) as expected, but surprisingly only higher levels than LF at 18 weeks (P<0.01). The LF group showed higher levels of plasma carotenoids than the other groups at 18 weeks (P<0.001). No group differences were found for SWM overall, however, age-group sub-analyses (26–50 and 51–70 years of age) showed differences from 0 to 18 weeks for younger adults, with LF improving significantly more than the other two groups on SWM (P<0.05). As nutritional absorption is known to decrease with age, separate stepwise regressions were performed on the two age groups irrespective of dietary group, with urinary flavonoids and plasma carotenoids as predictors. For younger adults, improved SWM performance from 0 to 18 weeks was associated with higher carotenoid levels, β=0.28, t(55)=2.10, P<0.05, accounting for 7.5% of the variance, R2=0.075, F(1,54)=4.41, P=0.040. For older adults, no between-group SWM differences were found. Findings suggest that F&V-based flavonoids and carotenoids may provide benefits for cognitive function, and that carotenoids in particular may improve cognitive performance in SWM. Given that these benefits were restricted to younger adults, future work is needed to test the reliability of this finding, as well as determine the mechanisms by which age-dependent differences in F&V responsiveness occur.

Is children's reading “good enough”? Links between online processing and comprehension as children read syntactically ambiguous sentences

We monitored 8- and 10-year-old children’s eye movements as they read sentences containing a temporary syntactic ambiguity to obtain a detailed record of their online processing. Children showed the classic garden-path effect in online processing. Their reading was disrupted following disambiguation, relative to control sentences containing a comma to block the ambiguity, although the disruption occurred somewhat later than would be expected for mature readers. We also asked children questions to probe their comprehension of the syntactic ambiguity offline. They made more errors following ambiguous sentences than following control sentences, demonstrating that the initial incorrect parse of the garden-path sentence influenced offline comprehension. These findings are consistent with “good enough” processing effects seen in adults. While faster reading times and more regressions were generally associated with better comprehension, spending longer reading the question predicted comprehension success specifically in the ambiguous condition. This suggests that reading the question prompted children to reconstruct the sentence and engage in some form of processing, which in turn increased the likelihood of comprehension success. Older children were more sensitive to the syntactic function of commas, and, overall, they were faster and more accurate than younger children.

Using E-Z Reader to examine the concurrent development of eye-movement control and reading skill

Compared to skilled adult readers, children typically make more fixations that are longer in duration, shorter saccades, and more regressions, thus reading more slowly (Blythe & Joseph, 2011). Recent attempts to understand the reasons for these differences have discovered some similarities (e.g., children and adults target their saccades similarly; Joseph, Liversedge, Blythe, White, & Rayner, 2009) and some differences (e.g., children’s fixation durations are more affected by lexical variables; Blythe, Liversedge, Joseph, White, & Rayner, 2009) that have yet to be explained. In this article, the E-Z Reader model of eye-movement control in reading (Reichle, 2011; Reichle, Pollatsek, Fisher, & Rayner, 1998) is used to simulate various eye-movement phenomena in adults versus children in order to evaluate hypotheses about the concurrent development of reading skill and eye-movement behavior. These simulations suggest that the primary difference between children and adults is their rate of lexical processing, and that different rates of (post-lexical) language processing may also contribute to some phenomena (e.g., children’s slower detection of semantic anomalies; Joseph et al., 2008). The theoretical implications of this hypothesis are discussed, including possible alternative accounts of these developmental changes, how reading skill and eye movements change across the entire lifespan (e.g., college-aged vs. elderly readers), and individual differences in reading ability.

Outward investments and productivity: evidence from European regions

Outward investments and productivity: evidence from European regions, Regional Studies. Using a novel data set on international investment projects, this paper builds measures of outward foreign direct investments (FDIs) for 262 regions of the European Union. This allows as estimation to be made of regressions of productivity growth over the 2007–11 period as a function of the number of FDIs. The number of outward FDIs in manufacturing activities is negatively associated with productivity growth in the home region, but investments in sales, distribution and marketing are associated with a boost in local productivity. This is driven especially by investments towards non-European Union locations. This evidence qualifies the fear of hollowing-out as a consequence of outward investments

Evaluation and revision of inferential comprehension in narrative texts: an eye movement study

We investigated the processes of how adult readers evaluate and revise their situation model during reading by monitoring their eye movements as they read narrative texts and subsequent critical sentences. In each narrative text, a short introduction primed a knowledge-based inference, followed by a target concept that was either expected (e.g., “oven”) or unexpected (e.g., “grill”) in relation to the inferred concept. Eye movements showed that readers detected a mismatch between the new unexpected information and their prior interpretation, confirming their ability to evaluate inferential information. Just below the narrative text, a critical sentence included a target word that was either congruent (e.g., “roasted”) or incongruent (e.g., “barbecued”) with the expected but not the unexpected concept. Readers spent less time reading the congruent than the incongruent target word, reflecting the facilitation of prior information. In addition, when the unexpected (but not expected) concept had been presented, participants with lower verbal (but not visuospatial) working memory span exhibited longer reading times and made more regressions (from the critical sentence to previous information) on encountering congruent information, indicating difficulty in inhibiting their initial incorrect interpretation and revising their situation model

Advanced source apportionment of size-resolved trace elements at multiple sites in London during winter

Trace element measurements in PM10–2.5, PM2.5–1.0 and PM1.0–0.3 aerosol were performed with 2 h time resolution at kerbside, urban background and rural sites during the ClearfLo winter 2012 campaign in London. The environment-dependent variability of emissions was characterized using the Multilinear Engine implementation of the positive matrix factorization model, conducted on data sets comprising all three sites but segregated by size. Combining the sites enabled separation of sources with high temporal covariance but significant spatial variability. Separation of sizes improved source resolution by preventing sources occurring in only a single size fraction from having too small a contribution for the model to resolve. Anchor profiles were retrieved internally by analysing data subsets, and these profiles were used in the analyses of the complete data sets of all sites for enhanced source apportionment. A total of nine different factors were resolved (notable elements in brackets): in PM10–2.5, brake wear (Cu, Zr, Sb, Ba), other traffic-related (Fe), resuspended dust (Si, Ca), sea/road salt (Cl), aged sea salt (Na, Mg) and industrial (Cr, Ni); in PM2.5–1.0, brake wear, other traffic-related, resuspended dust, sea/road salt, aged sea salt and S-rich (S); and in PM1.0–0.3, traffic-related (Fe, Cu, Zr, Sb, Ba), resuspended dust, sea/road salt, aged sea salt, reacted Cl (Cl), S-rich and solid fuel (K, Pb). Human activities enhance the kerb-to-rural concentration gradients of coarse aged sea salt, typically considered to have a natural source, by 1.7–2.2. These site-dependent concentration differences reflect the effect of local resuspension processes in London. The anthropogenically influenced factors traffic (brake wear and other traffic-related processes), dust and sea/road salt provide further kerb-to-rural concentration enhancements by direct source emissions by a factor of 3.5–12.7. The traffic and dust factors are mainly emitted in PM10–2.5 and show strong diurnal variations with concentrations up to 4 times higher during rush hour than during night-time. Regionally influenced S-rich and solid fuel factors, occurring primarily in PM1.0–0.3, have negligible resuspension influences, and concentrations are similar throughout the day and across the regions.

Determinants of satisfaction amongst tenants of UK Offices

Purpose – Corporate Occupiers require offices and services which meet their business needs, whilst landlords must attract and retain occupiers in order to maximise occupancy and rental income. The purpose of this research is to help landlords and corporate occupiers understand each other better, in order to achieve a mutually beneficial relationship. Design/methodology/approach - This paper analyses interviews with 1334 office tenants in the UK, conducted over an 11-year period, to investigate determinants of occupier satisfaction, loyalty and advocacy. Structural equation modelling and regressions are performed using respondents’ ratings of satisfaction with many aspects of occupancy as explanatory variables. The dependent variables include satisfaction with property management, value for money, overall occupier satisfaction, lease renewal intentions and occupiers’ willingness to recommend their landlord. Findings - The aspects with most impact on occupiers’ satisfaction are the office building itself, its location and amenities, and also communication with their property manager, a belief that their business needs are understood and the property manager’s responsiveness to occupiers’ requests. Occupiers’ loyalty depends mainly upon feeling that their rent and service charges provide value for money, an amicable leasing process, the professionalism of their property manager and the Corporate Social Responsibility of the Landlord. ‘Empathy’ is crucial to occupiers’ willingness to recommend their landlord, and clear documentation and efficient legal process improve occupiers’ perception of receiving ‘Value for Money’. Research Limitations - The sample is skewed towards occupiers of prime office buildings in the UK, owned by landlords who care sufficiently about their tenants to commission studies into occupier satisfaction. Practical implications - This research should help to improve the landlord – tenant relationship, benefitting the businesses that rent property and helping building managers understand where to focus their efforts to achieve maximum effect on occupier satisfaction, loyalty and advocacy. Originality/value - There has been little academic research into the determinants of satisfaction of occupiers of UK commercial property. This large-scale study enables the most influential factors to be identified and prioritised.

Assessment and improvement of biotransfer models to cow’s milk and beef used in exposure assessment tools for organic pollutants

The aim of this study was to assess and improve the accuracy of biotransfer models for the organic pollutants (PCBs, PCDD/Fs, PBDEs, PFCAs, and pesticides) into cow’s milk and beef used in human exposure assessment. Metabolic rate in cattle is known as a key parameter for this biotransfer, however few experimental data and no simulation methods are currently available. In this research, metabolic rate was estimated using existing QSAR biodegradation models of microorganisms (BioWIN) and fish (EPI-HL and IFS-HL). This simulated metabolic rate was then incorporated into the mechanistic cattle biotransfer models (RAIDAR, ACC-HUMAN, OMEGA, and CKow). The goodness of fit tests showed that RAIDAR, ACC-HUMAN, OMEGA model performances were significantly improved using either of the QSARs when comparing the new model outputs to observed data. The CKow model is the only one that separates the processes in the gut and liver. This model showed the lowest residual error of all the models tested when the BioWIN model was used to represent the ruminant metabolic process in the gut and the two fish QSARs were used to represent the metabolic process in the liver. Our testing included EUSES and CalTOX which are KOW-regression models that are widely used in regulatory assessment. New regressions based on the simulated rate of the two metabolic processes are also proposed as an alternative to KOW-regression models for a screening risk assessment. The modified CKow model is more physiologically realistic, but has equivalent usability to existing KOW-regression models for estimating cattle biotransfer of organic pollutants.