The cross-entropy method for network reliability estimation

Consider a network of unreliable links, modelling for example a communication network. Estimating the reliability of the network-expressed as the probability that certain nodes in the network are connected-is a computationally difficult task. In this paper we study how the Cross-Entropy method can be used to obtain more efficient network reliability estimation procedures. Three techniques of estimation are considered: Crude Monte Carlo and the more sophisticated Permutation Monte Carlo and Merge Process. We show that the Cross-Entropy method yields a speed-up over all three techniques.

Application of the cross-entropy method to the buffer allocation problem in a simulation-based environment

The buffer allocation problem (BAP) is a well-known difficult problem in the design of production lines. We present a stochastic algorithm for solving the BAP, based on the cross-entropy method, a new paradigm for stochastic optimization. The algorithm involves the following iterative steps: (a) the generation of buffer allocations according to a certain random mechanism, followed by (b) the modification of this mechanism on the basis of cross-entropy minimization. Through various numerical experiments we demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm and show that the method can quickly generate (near-)optimal buffer allocations for fairly large production lines.

An adaptive and dynamic dimensionality reduction method for high-dimensional indexing

The notorious "dimensionality curse" is a well-known phenomenon for any multi-dimensional indexes attempting to scale up to high dimensions. One well-known approach to overcome degradation in performance with respect to increasing dimensions is to reduce the dimensionality of the original dataset before constructing the index. However, identifying the correlation among the dimensions and effectively reducing them are challenging tasks. In this paper, we present an adaptive Multi-level Mahalanobis-based Dimensionality Reduction (MMDR) technique for high-dimensional indexing. Our MMDR technique has four notable features compared to existing methods. First, it discovers elliptical clusters for more effective dimensionality reduction by using only the low-dimensional subspaces. Second, data points in the different axis systems are indexed using a single B+-tree. Third, our technique is highly scalable in terms of data size and dimension. Finally, it is also dynamic and adaptive to insertions. An extensive performance study was conducted using both real and synthetic datasets, and the results show that our technique not only achieves higher precision, but also enables queries to be processed efficiently. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2005

Development of a DNA-based method for detection and identification of Phytophthora species

Phytophthora diseases cause major losses to agricultural and horticultural production in Australia and worldwide. Most Phytophthora diseases are soilborne and difficult to control, making disease prevention an important component of many disease management strategies. Detection and identification of the causal agent, therefore, is an essential part of effective disease management. This paper describes the development and validation of a DNA-based diagnostic assay that can detect and identify 27 different Phytophthora species. We have designed PCR primers that are specific to the genus Phytophthora. The resulting amplicon after PCR is subjected to digestion by restriction enzymes to yield a specific restriction pattern or fingerprint unique to each species. The restriction patterns are compared with a key comprising restriction patterns of type specimens or representative isolates of 27 different Phytophthora species. A number of fundamental issues, such as genetic diversity within and among species which underpin the development and validation of DNA-based diagnostic assays, are addressed in this paper.

National audit of post-operative management in spinal surgery

Background: There is some evidence from a Cochrane review that rehabilitation following spinal surgery may be beneficial. Methods: We conducted a survey of current post-operative practice amongst spinal surgeons in the United Kingdom in 2002 to determine whether such interventions are being included routinely in the post-operative management of spinal patients. The survey included all surgeons who were members of either the British Association of Spinal Surgeons ( BASS) or the Society for Back Pain Research. Data on the characteristics of each surgeon and his or her current pattern of practice and post-operative care were collected via a reply-paid postal questionnaire. Results: Usable responses were provided by 57% of the 89 surgeons included in the survey. Most surgeons (79%) had a routine post-operative management regime, but only 35% had a written set of instructions that they gave to their patients concerning this. Over half (55%) of surgeons do not send their patients for any physiotherapy after discharge, with an average of less than two sessions of treatment organised by those that refer for physiotherapy at all. Restrictions on lifting, sitting and driving showed considerable inconsistency both between surgeons and also within the recommendations given by individual surgeons. Conclusion: Demonstrable inconsistencies within and between spinal surgeons in their approaches to post-operative management can be interpreted as evidence of continuing and significant uncertainty across the sub-speciality as to what does constitute best care in these areas of practice. Conducting further large, rigorous, randomised controlled trials would be the best method for obtaining definitive answers to these questions.

Temporal variation in arthropod sampling effectiveness: the case for using the beat sheet method in cotton

Predatory insects and spiders are key elements of integrated pest management (IPM) programmes in agricultural crops such as cotton. Management decisions in IPM programmes should to be based on a reliable and efficient method for counting both predators and pests. Knowledge of the temporal constraints that influence sampling is required because arthropod abundance estimates are likely to vary over a growing season and within a day. Few studies have adequately quantified this effect using the beat sheet, a potentially important sampling method. We compared the commonly used methods of suction and visual sampling to the beat sheet, with reference to an absolute cage clamp method for determining the abundance of various arthropod taxa over 5 weeks. There were significantly more entomophagous arthropods recorded using the beat sheet and cage clamp methods than by using suction or visual sampling, and these differences were more pronounced as the plants grew. In a second trial, relative estimates of entomophagous and phytophagous arthropod abundance were made using beat sheet samples collected over a day. Beat sheet estimates of the abundance of only eight of the 43 taxa examined were found to vary significantly over a day. Beat sheet sampling is recommended in further studies of arthropod abundance in cotton, but researchers and pest management advisors should bear in mind the time of season and time of day effects.

Heart failure management programmes in Europe

Background The ESC guidelines recommend that an organised system of specialist heart failure (HF) care should be established to improve outcomes of HF patients. The aim of this study was therefore to identify the number and the content of HF management programmes in Europe. Method A two-phase descriptive study was conducted: an initial screening to identify the existence of HF management programmes; and a survey to describe the content in countries where at least 30% of the hospitals had a programme. Results Of the 43 European countries approached, 26 (60%) estimated the percentage of HF management programmes. Seven countries reported that they had such programmes in more than 30% of their hospitals. Of the 673 hospitals responding to the questionnaire, 426 (63%) had a HF management programme. Half of the programmes (n = 205) were located in an outpatient clinic. In the UK a combination of hospital and home-based programmes was common (75%). The most programmes included physical examination, telephone consultation, patient education, drug titration and diagnostic testing. Most (89%) programmes involved nurses and physicians. Multi-disciplinary teams were active in 56% of the HF programmes. The most prominent differences between the 7 countries were the degree of collaboration with home care and GP's, the role in palliative care and the funding. Conclusion Only a few European countries have a large number of organised programmes for HF care and follow up. To improve outcomes of HF patients throughout Europe more effort should be taken to increase the number of these programmes in all countries.

Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to p inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For exam le, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously, These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency.

Conservation planning with irreplaceability: does the method matter?

A number of systematic conservation planning tools are available to aid in making land use decisions. Given the increasing worldwide use and application of reserve design tools, including measures of site irreplaceability, it is essential that methodological differences and their potential effect on conservation planning outcomes are understood. We compared the irreplaceability of sites for protecting ecosystems within the Brigalow Belt Bioregion, Queensland, Australia, using two alternative reserve system design tools, Marxan and C-Plan. We set Marxan to generate multiple reserve systems that met targets with minimal area; the first scenario ignored spatial objectives, while the second selected compact groups of areas. Marxan calculates the irreplaceability of each site as the proportion of solutions in which it occurs for each of these set scenarios. In contrast, C-Plan uses a statistical estimate of irreplaceability as the likelihood that each site is needed in all combinations of sites that satisfy the targets. We found that sites containing rare ecosystems are almost always irreplaceable regardless of the method. Importantly, Marxan and C-Plan gave similar outcomes when spatial objectives were ignored. Marxan with a compactness objective defined twice as much area as irreplaceable, including many sites with relatively common ecosystems. However, targets for all ecosystems were met using a similar amount of area in C-Plan and Marxan, even with compactness. The importance of differences in the outcomes of using the two methods will depend on the question being addressed; in general, the use of two or more complementary tools is beneficial.

A new indexing method for high dimensional dataset

Indexing high dimensional datasets has attracted extensive attention from many researchers in the last decade. Since R-tree type of index structures are known as suffering curse of dimensionality problems, Pyramid-tree type of index structures, which are based on the B-tree, have been proposed to break the curse of dimensionality. However, for high dimensional data, the number of pyramids is often insufficient to discriminate data points when the number of dimensions is high. Its effectiveness degrades dramatically with the increase of dimensionality. In this paper, we focus on one particular issue of curse of dimensionality; that is, the surface of a hypercube in a high dimensional space approaches 100% of the total hypercube volume when the number of dimensions approaches infinite. We propose a new indexing method based on the surface of dimensionality. We prove that the Pyramid tree technology is a special case of our method. The results of our experiments demonstrate clear priority of our novel method.

BM+-tree: A hyperplane-based index method for high-dimensional metric spaces

In this paper, we propose a novel high-dimensional index method, the BM+-tree, to support efficient processing of similarity search queries in high-dimensional spaces. The main idea of the proposed index is to improve data partitioning efficiency in a high-dimensional space by using a rotary binary hyperplane, which further partitions a subspace and can also take advantage of the twin node concept used in the M+-tree. Compared with the key dimension concept in the M+-tree, the binary hyperplane is more effective in data filtering. High space utilization is achieved by dynamically performing data reallocation between twin nodes. In addition, a post processing step is used after index building to ensure effective filtration. Experimental results using two types of real data sets illustrate a significantly improved filtering efficiency.

Multilevel phenomena and the implications for method: An example of knowledge transfer in sports

Multilevel theories integrate individual-level processes with those occurring at the level of the firm and above to generate richer and more complete explanations of IB phenomena than the traditional specification of IB relationships as single-level and parsimonious allows. Case study methods permit the timely collection of multiple sources of data, in context, from multiple individuals and multiple organizational units. Further, because the definitions for each level emerge from case data rather than being imposed a priori, case analysis promotes an understanding of deeper structures and cross-level processes. This paper considers the example of sport as an internationalized service to illustrate how the case method might be used to illuminate the multilevel phenomena of knowledge.

Sense of place: A tool to assist the meaningful engagement of communities in protected area management

This study used ‘sense of place’ as a research tool to help understand the relationship between a community and their local protected area, Brisbane Forest Park. To establish an indication of the community’s relative degree of sense of place, we considered and measured both the strength (intensity) and orientation (focus) of sense of place. We developed a new method to measure sense of place that considers and measures the elements constituting sense of place, independent of one another, utilising qualitative data collected in in-depth semi-structured interviews. Exploring both the strength and orientation of an individual's sense of place provides a way of exploring the desired nature of community involvement in the management of the Park. It was found that the stronger an individuals’ sense of place, the greater their place dependence and commitment, and the greater their desire to be involved in management. Analysing the strength and orientation of sense of place illustrated that there is a high degree of diversity in how individuals perceive and feel about area, and their desire to be involved in management. The type of information obtained in this study is important and useful to the management agencies if they are to successfully engage the community in meaningful ways.