A log-linear regression model for the beta-Birnbaum-Saunders distribution with censored data

The beta-Birnbaum-Saunders (Cordeiro and Lemonte, 2011) and Birnbaum-Saunders (Birnbaum and Saunders, 1969a) distributions have been used quite effectively to model failure times for materials subject to fatigue and lifetime data. We define the log-beta-Birnbaum-Saunders distribution by the logarithm of the beta-Birnbaum-Saunders distribution. Explicit expressions for its generating function and moments are derived. We propose a new log-beta-Birnbaum-Saunders regression model that can be applied to censored data and be used more effectively in survival analysis. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters for censored data and investigate influence diagnostics. The new location-scale regression model is modified for the possibility that long-term survivors may be presented in the data. Its usefulness is illustrated by means of two real data sets. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Competing regression models for longitudinal data

The choice of an appropriate family of linear models for the analysis of longitudinal data is often a matter of concern for practitioners. To attenuate such difficulties, we discuss some issues that emerge when analyzing this type of data via a practical example involving pretestposttest longitudinal data. In particular, we consider log-normal linear mixed models (LNLMM), generalized linear mixed models (GLMM), and models based on generalized estimating equations (GEE). We show how some special features of the data, like a nonconstant coefficient of variation, may be handled in the three approaches and evaluate their performance with respect to the magnitude of standard errors of interpretable and comparable parameters. We also show how different diagnostic tools may be employed to identify outliers and comment on available software. We conclude by noting that the results are similar, but that GEE-based models may be preferable when the goal is to compare the marginal expected responses.

Accuracy of positron emission tomography/computed tomography and clinical assessment in the detection of complete rectal tumor regression after neoadjuvant chemoradiation Long-Term Results of a Prospective Trial (National Clinical Trial 00254683)

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant chemoradiation (CRT) therapy may result in significant tumor regression in patients with rectal cancer. Patients who develop complete tumor regression have been managed by treatment strategies that are alternatives to standard total mesorectal excision. Therefore, assessment of tumor response with positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) after neoadjuvant treatment may offer relevant information for the selection of patients to receive alternative treatment strategies. METHODS: Patients with clinical T2 (cT2) through cT4NxM0 rectal adenocarcinoma were included prospectively. Neoadjuvant therapy consisted of 54 grays of radiation and 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy. Baseline PET/CT studies were obtained before CRT followed by PET/CT studies at 6 weeks and 12 weeks after the completion of CRT. Clinical assessment was performed at 12 weeks after CRT completion. PET/CT results were compared with clinical and pathologic data. RESULTS: In total, 99 patients were included in the study. Twenty-three patients were complete responders (16 had a complete clinical response, and 7 had a complete pathologic response). The PET/CT response evaluation at 12 weeks indicated that 18 patients had a complete response, and 81 patients had an incomplete response. There were 5 false-negative and 10 false-positive PET/CT results. PET/CT for the detection of residual cancer had 93% sensitivity, 53% specificity, a 73% negative predictive value, an 87% positive predictive value, and 85% accuracy. Clinical assessment alone resulted in an accuracy of 91%. PET/CT information may have detected misdiagnoses made by clinical assessment alone, improving overall accuracy to 96%. CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of tumor response at 12 weeks after CRT completion with PET/CT imaging may provide a useful additional tool with good overall accuracy for the selection of patients who may avoid unnecessary radical resection after achieving a complete clinical response. Cancer 2012;35013511. (C) 2011 American Cancer Society.

A general class of zero-or-one inflated beta regression models

This paper proposes a general class of regression models for continuous proportions when the data contain zeros or ones. The proposed class of models assumes that the response variable has a mixed continuous-discrete distribution with probability mass at zero or one. The beta distribution is used to describe the continuous component of the model, since its density has a wide range of different shapes depending on the values of the two parameters that index the distribution. We use a suitable parameterization of the beta law in terms of its mean and a precision parameter. The parameters of the mixture distribution are modeled as functions of regression parameters. We provide inference, diagnostic, and model selection tools for this class of models. A practical application that employs real data is presented. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian analysis of random regression models using B-splines to model test-day milk yield of Holstein cattle in Brazil

The objective of this paper is to model variations in test-day milk yields of first lactations of Holstein cows by RR using B-spline functions and Bayesian inference in order to fit adequate and parsimonious models for the estimation of genetic parameters. They used 152,145 test day milk yield records from 7317 first lactations of Holstein cows. The model established in this study was additive, permanent environmental and residual random effects. In addition, contemporary group and linear and quadratic effects of the age of cow at calving were included as fixed effects. Authors modeled the average lactation curve of the population with a fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. They concluded that a cubic B-spline with seven random regression coefficients for both the additive genetic and permanent environment effects was to be the best according to residual mean square and residual variance estimates. Moreover they urged a lower order model (quadratic B-spline with seven random regression coefficients for both random effects) could be adopted because it yielded practically the same genetic parameter estimates with parsimony. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Suicide rates and trends in Sao Paulo, Brazil, according to gender, age and demographic aspects: a joinpoint regression analysis

Objective: To evaluate suicide rates and trends in Sao Paulo by sex, age-strata, and methods. Methods: Data was collected from State registry from 1996 to 2009. Population was estimated using the National Census. We utilized joinpoint regression analysis to explore temporal trends. We also evaluated marital status, ethnicity, birthplace and methods for suicide. Results: In the period analyzed, 6,002 suicides were accrued with a rate of 4.6 per 100,000 (7.5 in men and 2.0 in women); the male-to-female ratio was around 3.7. Trends for men presented a significant decline of 5.3% per year from 1996 to 2002, and a significant increase of 2.5% from 2002 onwards. Women did not present significant changes. For men, the elderly (> 65 years) had a significant reduction of 2.3% per year, while younger men (25-44 years) presented a significant increase of 8.6% from 2004 onwards. Women did not present significant trend changes according to age. Leading suicide methods were hanging and poisoning for men and women, respectively. Other analyses showed an increased suicide risk ratio for singles and foreigners. Conclusions: Specific epidemiological trends for suicide in the city of Sao Paulo that warrant further investigation were identified. High-risk groups - such as immigrants - could benefit from targeted strategies of suicide prevention.

Random regression analyses using B-spline functions to model growth of Nellore cattle

The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance components using random regression on B-spline functions to weight records obtained from birth to adulthood. A total of 82 064 weight records of 8145 females obtained from the data bank of the Nellore Breeding Program (PMGRN/Nellore Brazil) which started in 1987, were used. The models included direct additive and maternal genetic effects and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of age (cubic regression) were considered as random covariate. The random effects were modeled using B-spline functions considering linear, quadratic and cubic polynomials for each individual segment. Residual variances were grouped in five age classes. Direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects were modeled using up to seven knots (six segments). A single segment with two knots at the end points of the curve was used for the estimation of maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. A total of 15 models were studied, with the number of parameters ranging from 17 to 81. The models that used B-splines were compared with multi-trait analyses with nine weight traits and to a random regression model that used orthogonal Legendre polynomials. A model fitting quadratic B-splines, with four knots or three segments for direct additive genetic effect and animal permanent environmental effect and two knots for maternal additive genetic effect and maternal permanent environmental effect, was the most appropriate and parsimonious model to describe the covariance structure of the data. Selection for higher weight, such as at young ages, should be performed taking into account an increase in mature cow weight. Particularly, this is important in most of Nellore beef cattle production systems, where the cow herd is maintained on range conditions. There is limited modification of the growth curve of Nellore cattle with respect to the aim of selecting them for rapid growth at young ages while maintaining constant adult weight.

Predicting smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis with classification trees and logistic regression: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPT) accounts for 30% of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported yearly in Brazil. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for SNPT for outpatients in areas with scarce resources. Methods The study enrolled 551 patients with clinical-radiological suspicion of SNPT, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The original data was divided into two equivalent samples for generation and validation of the prediction models. Symptoms, physical signs and chest X-rays were used for constructing logistic regression and classification and regression tree models. From the logistic regression, we generated a clinical and radiological prediction score. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the model's performance in both generation and validation samples. Results It was possible to generate predictive models for SNPT with sensitivity ranging from 64% to 71% and specificity ranging from 58% to 76%. Conclusion The results suggest that those models might be useful as screening tools for estimating the risk of SNPT, optimizing the utilization of more expensive tests, and avoiding costs of unnecessary anti-tuberculosis treatment. Those models might be cost-effective tools in a health care network with hierarchical distribution of scarce resources.

Suicide rates and trends in São Paulo, Brazil, according to gender, age and demographic aspects: a joinpoint regression analysis

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate suicide rates and trends in São Paulo by sex, age-strata, and methods. METHODS: Data was collected from State registry from 1996 to 2009. Population was estimated using the National Census. We utilized joinpoint regression analysis to explore temporal trends. We also evaluated marital status, ethnicity, birthplace and methods for suicide. RESULTS: In the period analyzed, 6,002 suicides were accrued with a rate of 4.6 per 100,000 (7.5 in men and 2.0 in women); the male-to-female ratio was around 3.7. Trends for men presented a significant decline of 5.3% per year from 1996 to 2002, and a significant increase of 2.5% from 2002 onwards. Women did not present significant changes. For men, the elderly (> 65 years) had a significant reduction of 2.3% per year, while younger men (25-44 years) presented a significant increase of 8.6% from 2004 onwards. Women did not present significant trend changes according to age. Leading suicide methods were hanging and poisoning for men and women, respectively. Other analyses showed an increased suicide risk ratio for singles and foreigners. CONCLUSIONS: Specific epidemiological trends for suicide in the city of São Paulo that warrant further investigation were identified. High-risk groups - such as immigrants - could benefit from targeted strategies of suicide prevention.

Manipulation of the periovulatory sex steroidal milieu affects endometrial but not luteal gene expression in early diestrus Nelore cows

In beef cattle, the ability to conceive has been associated positively with size of the preovulatory follicle (POF). Proestrus estradiol and subsequent progesterone concentrations can regulate the endometrium to affect receptivity and fertility. The aim of the present study was to verify the effect of the size of the POF on luteal and endometrial gene expression during subsequent early diestrus in beef cattle. Eighty-three multiparous, nonlactating, presynchronized Nelore cows received a progesterone-releasing device and estradiol benzoate on Day–10 (D 10). Animals received cloprostenol (large follicle-large CL group; LF-LCL; N ¼ 42) or not (small follicle-small CL group; SF-SCL; N ¼ 41) on D 10. Progesterone devices were withdrawn and cloprostenol administered 42 to 60 hours (LF-LCL) or 30 to 36 hours (SF-SCL) before GnRH treatment (D0). Tissues were collected at slaughter on D7. The LF-LCL group had larger (P < 0.0001) POF (13.24 0.33 mm vs. 10.76 0.29 mm), greater (P < 0.0007) estradiol concentrations on D0 (2.94 0.28 pg/mL vs. 1.27 0.20 pg/mL), and greater (P < 0.01) progesterone concentrations on D7 (3.71 0.25 ng/mL vs. 2.62 0.26 ng/mL) compared with the SF-SCL group. Luteal gene expression of vascular endothelial growth factor A, kinase insert domain receptor, fms-related tyrosine kinase 1, steroidogenic acute regulatory protein, cytochrome P450, family 11, subfamily A, polypeptide 1, and hydroxy-delta-5-steroid dehydrogenase, 3 beta- and steroid deltaisomerase 7 was similar between groups. Endometrial gene expression of oxytocin receptor and peptidase inhibitor 3, skin-derived was reduced, and estrogen receptor alpha 2, aldo-keto reductase family 1, member C4, and lipoprotein lipase expression was increased in LF-LCL versus SF-SCL. Results support the hypothesis that the size of the POF alters the periovulatory endocrine milieu (i.e., proestrus estradiol and diestrus progesterone concentrations) and acts on the uterus to alter endometrial gene expression. It is proposed that the uterine environment and receptivity might also be modulated. Additionally, it is suggested that increased progesterone secretion of cows ovulating larger follicles is likely due to increased CL size rather than increased luteal expression of steroidogenic genes.

Angiogenesis and angioregression gene expression analyses in swine corpus luteum

The corpus luteum (CL) lifespan is characterized by a rapid growth, differentiation and controlled regression of the luteal tissue, accompanied by an intense angiogenesis and angioregression. Indeed, the CL is one of the most highly vascularised tissue in the body with a proliferation rate of the endothelial cells 4- to 20-fold more intense than in some of the most malignant human tumours. This angiogenic process should be rigorously controlled to allow the repeated opportunities of fertilization. After a first period of rapid growth, the tissue becomes stably organized and prepares itself to switch to the phenotype required for its next apoptotic regression. In pregnant swine, the lifespan of the CLs must be extended to support embryonic and foetal development and vascularisation is necessary for the maintenance of luteal function. Among the molecules involved in the angiogenesis, Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) is the main regulator, promoting endothelial cells proliferation, differentiation and survival as well as vascular permeability and vessel lumen formation. During vascular invasion and apoptosis process, the remodelling of the extracellular matrix is essential for the correct evolution of the CL, particularly by the action of specific class of proteolytic enzymes known as matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs). Another important factor that plays a role in the processes of angiogenesis and angioregression during the CL formation and luteolysis is the isopeptide Endothelin-1 (ET-1), which is well-known to be a potent vasoconstrictor and mitogen for endothelial cells. The goal of the present thesis was to study the role and regulation of vascularisation in an adult vascular bed. For this purpose, using a precisely controlled in vivo model of swine CL development and regression, we determined the levels of expression of the members of VEGF system (VEGF total and specific isoforms; VEGF receptor-1, VEGFR-1; VEGF receptor-2, VEGFR-2) and ET- 1 system (ET-1; endothelin converting enzyme-1, ECE-1; endothelin receptor type A, ET-A) as well as the activity of the Ca++/Mg++-dependent endonucleases and gelatinases (MMP-2 and MMP-9). Three experiments were conducted to reach such objectives in CLs isolated from ovaries of cyclic, pregnant or fasted gilts. In the Experiment I, we evaluated the influence of acute fasting on VEGF production and VEGF, VEGFR-2, ET-1, ECE-1 and ET-A mRNA expressions in CLs collected on day 6 after ovulation (midluteal phase). The results indicated a down-regulation of VEGF, VEGFR-2, ET-1 and ECE-1 mRNA expression, although no change was observed for VEGF protein. Furthermore, we observed that fasting stimulated steroidogenesis by luteal cells. On the basis of the main effects of VEGF (stimulation of vessel growth and endothelial permeability) and ET-1 (stimulation of endothelial cell proliferation and vasoconstriction, as well as VEGF stimulation), we concluded that feed restriction possibly inhibited luteal vessel development. This could be, at least in part, compensated by a decrease of vasal tone due to a diminution of ET-1, thus ensuring an adequate blood flow and the production of steroids by the luteal cells. In the Experiment II, we investigated the relationship between VEGF, gelatinases and Ca++/Mg++-dependent endonucleases activities with the functional CL stage throughout the oestrous cycle and at pregnancy. The results demonstrated differential patterns of expression of those molecules in correspondence to the different phases of the oestrous cycle. Immediately after ovulation, VEGF mRNA/protein levels and MMP-9 activity are maximal. On days 5–14 after ovulation, VEGF expression and MMP-2 and -9 activities are at basal levels, while Ca++/Mg++-dependent endonuclease levels increased significantly in relation to day 1. Only at luteolysis (day 17), Ca++/Mg++-dependent endonuclease and MMP-2 spontaneous activity increased significantly. At pregnancy, high levels of MMP-9 and VEGF were observed. These results suggested that during the very early luteal phase, high MMPs activities coupled with high VEGF levels drive the tissue to an angiogenic phenotype, allowing CL growth under LH (Luteinising Hormone) stimulus, while during the late luteal phase, low VEGF and elevate MMPs levels may play a role in the apoptotic tissue and extracellular matrix remodelling during structural luteolysis. In the Experiment III, we described the expression patterns of all distinct VEGF isoforms throughout the oestrous cycle. Furthermore, the mRNA expression and protein levels of both VEGF receptors were also evaluated. Four novel VEGF isoforms (VEGF144, VEGF147, VEGF182, and VEGF164b) were found for the first time in swine and the seven identified isoforms presented four different patterns of expression. All isoforms showed their highest mRNA levels in newly formed CLs (day 1), followed by a decrease during mid-late luteal phase (days 10–17), except for VEGF182, VEGF188 and VEGF144 that showed a differential regulation during late luteal phase (day 14) or at luteolysis (day 17). VEGF protein levels paralleled the most expressed and secreted VEGF120 and VEGF164 isoforms. The VEGF receptors mRNAs showed a different pattern of expression in relation to their ligands, increasing between day 1 and 3 and gradually decreasing during the mid-late luteal phase. The differential regulation of some VEGF isoforms principally during the late luteal phase and luteolysis suggested a specific role of VEGF during tissue remodelling process that occurs either for CL maintenance in case of pregnancy or for noncapillary vessel development essential for tissue removal during structural luteolysis. In summary, our findings allow us to determine relationships among factors involved in the angiogenesis and angioregression mechanisms that take place during the formation and regression of the CL. Thus, CL provides a very interesting model for studying such factors in different fields of the basic research.