956 resultados para likelihood to publication


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In recent years, ecological thinking has been applied to a range of social, cultural and aesthetic systems, including performing arts as a living system of policy makers, producers, organisations, artists and audiences. Ecological thinking is systems-based thinking which allows us to see the performing arts as a complex and protean ecosystem; to explain how elements in this system act and interact; and to evaluate its effects on Australia’s social fabric over time. According to Gallasch, ecological thinking is “what we desperately need for the arts.” It enables us to “defeat the fragmentary and utilitarian view of the arts that dominates, to make connections, to establish overviews of the arts that can be shared and debated” (Gallasch NP). John Baylis took up these issues in "Mapping Queensland Theatre" (2009), an Arts Queensland-funded survey designed to map practices in Brisbane and in Queensland more broadly, and to provide a platform to support future policy-making. In this paper, we propose a new approach to mapping Brisbane’s and Queensland’s theatre that extends Baylis’ ‘value chain’ into a ‘value ecology’ that provides a more textured picture of players, patterns, relationships and activity levels in local performing arts.

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Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo approach to Bayesian sequential design for the incorporation of model uncertainty. The methodology is demonstrated through the development and implementation of two model discrimination utilities; mutual information and total separation, but it can also be applied more generally if one has different experimental aims. A sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is run for each rival model (in parallel), and provides a convenient estimate of the marginal likelihood (of each model) given the data, which can be used for model comparison and in the evaluation of utility functions. A major benefit of this approach is that it requires very little problem specific tuning and is also computationally efficient when compared to full Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. This research is motivated by applications in drug development and chemical engineering.

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This report reviews the use of point-to-point speed enforcement internationally in order to provide principles for better practice for its use in Australia and New Zealand. Point-to-point enforcement is a relatively new technological approach to speed enforcement which involves measuring the average speed of vehicles passing a series of cameras, by using automatic number plate recognition (ANPR) and other technologies. The approach has been implemented or trialled in a number of countries including Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Austria, Italy, Switzerland and France. The major research activities were undertaken for the preparation of this report included: (1) an extensive review of the international literature; (2) stakeholder consultation with international and domestic organisations. To date, there have been no formal evaluations of point-to- point speed enforcement in Australia or New Zealand.

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Exposures to traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) can be particularly high in transport microenvironments (i.e. in and around vehicles) despite the short durations typically spent there. There is a mounting body of evidence that suggests that this is especially true for fine (b2.5 μm) and ultrafine (b100 nm, UF) particles. Professional drivers, who spend extended periods of time in transport microenvironments due to their job, may incur exposures markedly higher than already elevated non-occupational exposures. Numerous epidemiological studies have shown a raised incidence of adverse health outcomes among professional drivers, and exposure to TRAP has been suggested as one of the possible causal factors. Despite this, data describing the range and determinants of occupational exposures to fine and UF particles are largely conspicuous in their absence. Such information could strengthen attempts to define the aetiology of professional drivers' illnesses as it relates to traffic combustion-derived particles. In this article, we suggest that the drivers' occupational fine and UF particle exposures are an exemplar case where opportunities exist to better link exposure science and epidemiology in addressing questions of causality. The nature of the hazard is first introduced, followed by an overview of the health effects attributable to exposures typical of transport microenvironments. Basic determinants of exposure and reduction strategies are also described, and finally the state of knowledge is briefly summarised along with an outline of the main unanswered questions in the topic area.

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This paper outlines a feasible scheme to extract deck trend when a rotary-wing unmanned aerial vehicle (RUAV)approaches an oscillating deck. An extended Kalman filter (EKF) is de- veloped to fuse measurements from multiple sensors for effective estimation of the unknown deck heave motion. Also, a recursive Prony Analysis (PA) procedure is proposed to implement online curve-fitting of the estimated heave mo- tion. The proposed PA constructs an appropriate model with parameters identified using the forgetting factor recursive least square (FFRLS)method. The deck trend is then extracted by separating dominant modes. Performance of the proposed procedure is evaluated using real ship motion data, and simulation results justify the suitability of the proposed method into safe landing of RUAVs operating in a maritime environment.

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Time-activity patterns and the airborne pollutant concentrations encountered by children each day are an important determinant of individual exposure to airborne particles. This is demonstrated in this work by using hand-held devices to measure the real-time individual exposure of more than 100 children aged 8-11 years to particle number concentrations and average particle diameter, as well as alveolar and tracheobronchial deposited surface area concentration. A GPS-logger and activity diaries were also used to give explanation to the measurement results. Children were divided in three sample groups: two groups comprised of urban schools (school time from 8:30 am to 1:30 pm) with lunch and dinner at home, and the third group of a rural school with only dinner at home. The mean individual exposure to particle number concentration was found to differ between the three groups, ranging from 6.2×104 part. cm-3 for children attending one urban school to 1.6×104 part. cm-3 for the rural school. The corresponding daily alveolar deposited surface area dose varied from about 1.7×103 mm2 for urban schools to 6.0×102 mm2 for the rural school. For all of the children monitored, the lowest particle number concentrations are found during sleeping time and the highest were found during eating time. With regard to alveolar deposited surface area dose, a child's home was the major contributor (about 70%), with school contributing about 17% for urban schools and 27% for the rural school. An important contribution arises from the cooking/eating time spent at home, which accounted for approximately 20% of overall exposure, corresponding to more than 200 mm2. These activities represent the highest dose received per time unit, with very high values also encountered by children with a fireplace at home, as well as those that spend considerable time stuck in traffic jams.

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A Jacobian-free variable-stepsize method is developed for the numerical integration of the large, stiff systems of differential equations encountered when simulating transport in heterogeneous porous media. Our method utilises the exponential Rosenbrock-Euler method, which is explicit in nature and requires a matrix-vector product involving the exponential of the Jacobian matrix at each step of the integration process. These products can be approximated using Krylov subspace methods, which permit a large integration stepsize to be utilised without having to precondition the iterations. This means that our method is truly "Jacobian-free" - the Jacobian need never be formed or factored during the simulation. We assess the performance of the new algorithm for simulating the drying of softwood. Numerical experiments conducted for both low and high temperature drying demonstrates that the new approach outperforms (in terms of accuracy and efficiency) existing simulation codes that utilise the backward Euler method via a preconditioned Newton-Krylov strategy.

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Frequent exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP) is associated with detrimental effects on cardiopulmonary function and health. UFP dose and therefore the associated health risk are a factor of exposure frequency, duration, and magnitude of (therefore also proximity to) a UFP emission source. Bicycle commuters using on-road routes during peak traffic times are sharing a microenvironment with high levels of motorised traffic, a major UFP emission source. Inhaled particle counts were measured along popular pre-identified bicycle commute route alterations of low (LOW) and high (HIGH) motorised traffic to the same inner-city destination at peak commute traffic times. During commute, real-time particle number concentration (PNC; mostly in the UFP range) and particle diameter (PD), heart and respiratory rate, geographical location, and meteorological variables were measured. To determine inhaled particle counts, ventilation rate was calculated from heart-rate-ventilation associations, produced from periodic exercise testing. Total mean PNC of LOW (compared to HIGH) was reduced (1.56 x e4 ± 0.38 x e4 versus 3.06 x e4 ± 0.53 x e4 ppcc; p = 0.012). Total estimated ventilation rate did not vary significantly between LOW and HIGH (43 ± 5 versus 46 ± 9 L•min; p = 0.136); however, due to total mean PNC, accumulated inhaled particle counts were 48% lower in LOW, compared to HIGH (7.6 x e8 ± 1.5 x e8 versus 14.6 x e8 ± 1.8 x e8; p = 0.003). For bicycle commuting at peak morning commute times, inhaled particle counts and therefore cardiopulmonary health risk may be substantially reduced by decreasing exposure to motorised traffic, which should be considered by both bicycle commuters and urban planners.

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A Companion to New Media Dynamics presents a state-of-the-art collection of multidisciplinary readings that examine the origins, evolution, and cultural underpinnings of the media of the digital age in terms of dynamic change Presents a state-of-the-art collection of original readings relating to new media in terms of dynamic change. - Features interdisciplinary contributions encompassing the sciences, social sciences, humanities and creative arts - Addresses a wide range of issues from the ownership and regulation of new media to their form and cultural uses - Provides readers with a glimpse of new media dynamics at three levels of scale: the ‘macro’ or system level; the ‘meso’ or institutional level; and ‘micro’ or agency level

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Glare indices have yet to be extensively tested in daylit open plan offices, as such there is no effective method to predict discomfort glare within these spaces. This study into discomfort glare in open plan green buildings targeted full-time employees, working under their everyday lighting conditions. Three green buildings in Brisbane were used for data collection, two were Green Star accredited and the other contained innovative daylighting strategies. Data were collected on full-time employees, mostly aged between 30 and 50 years, who broadly reflect the demographics of the wider working population in Australia. It was discovered 36 of the 64 respondents experienced discomfort from both electric and daylight sources at their workspace. The study used a specially tailored post-occupancy evaluation (POE) survey to help assess discomfort glare. Luminance maps extracted from High Dynamic Range (HDR) images were used to capture the luminous environment of the occupants. These were analysed using participant data and the program Evalglare. The physical results indicated no correlation with other developed glare metrics for daylight within these open plan green buildings, including the recently developed Daylight Glare Probability (DGP) Index. The strong influence of vertical illuminance, Ev in the DGP precludes the mostly contrast-based glare from windows observed in this investigation from forming a significant part of this index. Furthermore, critical assessment of the survey techniques used are considered. These will provide insight for further research into discomfort glare in the endeavour to fully develop a suitable glare metric.

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Background: Right-to-left shunting via a patent foramen ovale (PFO) has a recognized association with embolic events in younger patients. The use of agitated saline contrast imaging (ASCi) for detecting atrial shunting is well documented, however optimal technique is not well described. The purpose of this study is to assess the efficacy and safety of ASCi via TTE for assessment of right-to-left atrial communication in a large cohort of patients. Method: A retrospective review was undertaken of 1162 consecutive transthoracic (TTE) ASCi studies, of which 195 had also undergone clinically indicated transesophageal (TEE) echo. ASCi shunt results were compared with color flow imaging (CFI) and the role of provocative maneuvers (PM) assessed. Results: 403 TTE studies (35%) had paradoxical shunting seen during ASCi. Of these, 48% were positive with PM only. There was strong agreement between TTE ASCi and reported TEE findings (99% sensitivity, 85% specificity), with six false positive and two false negative results. In hindsight, the latter were likely due to suboptimal right atrial opacification, and the former due to transpulmonary shunting. TTE CFI was found to be insensitive (22%) for the detection of a PFO compared with TTE ASCi. Conclusions: TTE ASCi is minimally invasive and highly accurate for the detection of right-to-left atrial communication when PM are used. TTE CFI was found to be insensitive for PFO screening. It is recommended that TTE ASCi should be considered the initial diagnostic tool for the detection of PFO in clinical practice. A dedicated protocol should be followed to ensure adequate agitated saline contrast delivery and performance of provocative maneuvers.

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Owing to the successful use of non-invasive vibration analysis to monitor the progression of dental implant healing and stabilization, it is now being considered as a method to monitor femoral implants in transfemoral amputees. This study uses composite femur-implant physical models to investigate the ability of modal analysis to detect changes at the interface between the implant and bone simulating those that occur during osseointegration. Using electromagnetic shaker excitation, differences were detected in the resonant frequencies and mode shapes of the model when the implant fit in the bone was altered to simulate the two interface cases considered: firm and loose fixation. The study showed that it is beneficial to examine higher resonant frequencies and their mode shapes (rather than the fundamental frequency only) when assessing fixation. The influence of the model boundary conditions on the modal parameters was also demonstrated. Further work is required to more accurately model the mechanical changes occurring at the bone-implant interface in vivo, as well as further refinement of the model boundary conditions to appropriately represent the in vivo conditions. Nevertheless, the ability to detect changes in the model dynamic properties demonstrates the potential of modal analysis in this application and warrants further investigation.

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Aims: To identify risk factors for major Adverse Events (AEs) and to develop a nomogram to predict the probability of such AEs in individual patients who have surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer. Methods: We used data from 753 patients who were randomized to either total laparoscopic hysterectomy or total abdominal hysterectomy in the LACE trial. Serious adverse events that prolonged hospital stay or postoperative adverse events (using common terminology criteria 3+, CTCAE V3) were considered major AEs. We analyzed pre-surgical characteristics that were associated with the risk of developing major AEs by multivariate logistic regression. We identified a parsimonious model by backward stepwise logistic regression. The six most significant or clinically important variables were included in the nomogram to predict the risk of major AEs within 6 weeks of surgery and the nomogram was internally validated. Results: Overall, 132 (17.5%) patients had at least one major AE. An open surgical approach (laparotomy), higher Charlson’s medical co-morbidities score, moderately differentiated tumours on curettings, higher baseline ECOG score, higher body mass index and low haemoglobin levels were associated with AE and were used in the nomogram. The bootstrap corrected concordance index of the nomogram was 0.63 and it showed good calibration. Conclusions: Six pre-surgical factors independently predicted the risk of major AEs. This research might form the basis to develop risk reduction strategies to minimize the risk of AEs among patients undergoing surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer.

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A bifunctionalized TiO2 film containing a dye-sensitized zone and a catalysis zone is designed for visible-light photocatalytic reduction of CO2 to chemicals continuously. Charge separation can be accomplished with electron transferring to catalysis zone and positive charge transforming to anode. Highly efficient conversion of CO2 to formic acid, formaldehyde, and methanol is achieved through the transferring electrons on conduction bands (CB) of TiO2. Reduction of CO2 and O2 evolution take place in separated solutions on different catalysts. The separated solution carried out in this photo-reactor system can avoid CO2 reduction products being oxidized by anode. The yields of reduction products were enhanced remarkably by external electrical power. This study provides not only a new photocatalytic system but also a potential of renewable energy source via carbon dioxide.

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AIM: To compare Total Laparoscopic Hysterectomy (TLH) and Total Abdominal Hysterectomy (TAH) with regard to surgical safety. METHODS: Between October 2005 and June 2010, 760 patients with apparent early stage endometrial cancer were enroled in a multicentre, randomised clinical trial (LACE) comparing outcomes following TLH or TAH. The main study end points for this analysis were surgical adverse events (AE), hospital length of stay, conversion from laparoscopy to laparotomy, including 753 patients who completed at least 6 weeks of follow-up. Postoperative AEs were graded according to Common Toxicity Criteria (V3), and those immediately life-threatening, requiring inpatient hospitalisation or prolonged hospitalisation, or resulting in persistent or significant disability/incapacity were regarded as serious AEs. RESULTS: The incidence of intra-operative AEs was comparable in either group. The incidence of post-operative AE CTC grade 3+ (18.6% in TAH, 12.9% in TLH, p 0.03) and serious AE (14.3% in TAH, 8.2% in TLH, p 0.007) was significantly higher in the TAH group compared to the TLH group. Mean operating time was 132 and 107 min, and median length of hospital stay was 2 and 5 days in the TLH and TAH group, respectively (p<0.0001). The decline of haemoglobin from baseline to day 1 postoperatively was 2g/L less in the TLH group (p 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to TAH, TLH is associated with a significantly decreased risk of major surgical AEs. A laparoscopic surgical approach to early stage endometrial cancer is safe.