Panel index VAR models: Specification, Estimation, Testing and Leading Indicators

This paper proposes a method to conduct inference in panel VAR models with cross unit interdependencies and time variations in the coefficients. The approach can be used to obtain multi-unit forecasts and leading indicators and to conduct policy analysis in a multiunit setups. The framework of analysis is Bayesian and MCMC methods are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the features of interest. The model is reparametrized to resemble an observable index model and specification searches are discussed. As an example, we construct leading indicators for inflation and GDP growth in the Euro area using G-7 information.

Condom use with steady partners among heterosexual people living with HIV in Europe: testing the information-motivation-behavioral skills model.

Guided by a modified information-motivation-behavioral skills model, this study identified predictors of condom use among heterosexual people living with HIV with their steady partners. Consecutive patients at 14 European HIV outpatient clinics received an anonymous, standardized, self-administered questionnaire between March and December 2007. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and two-step backward elimination regression analyses stratified by gender. The survey included 651 participants (n = 364, 56% women; n = 287, 44%). Mean age was 39 years for women and 43 years for men. Most had acquired HIV sexually and more than half were in a serodiscordant relationship. Sixty-three percent (n = 229) of women and 59% of men (n = 169) reported at least one sexual encounter with a steady partner 6 months prior to the survey. Fifty-one percent (n = 116) of women and 59% of men (n = 99) used condoms consistently with that partner. In both genders, condom use was positively associated with subjective norm conducive to condom use, and self-efficacy to use condoms. Having a partner whose HIV status was positive or unknown reduced condom use. In men, higher education and knowledge about condom use additionally increased condom use, while the use of erectile-enhancing medication decreased it. For women, HIV disclosure to partners additionally reduced the likelihood of condom use. Positive attitudes to condom use and subjective norm increased self-efficacy in both genders, however, a number of gender-related differences appeared to influence self-efficacy. Service providers should pay attention to the identified predictors of condom use and adopt comprehensive and gender-related approaches for preventive interventions with people living with HIV.

Le multiple evanescent white dot syndrome: une prédisposition génétique [Multiple evanescent white dot syndrome: a genetic predisposition?]

BACKGROUND: Multiple evanescent white dot syndrome (MEWDS) is a benign acquired isolated chorioretinal disorder. Symptoms include photopsia, visual blur and scotomas. Ocular examination reveals multiple white dots at the level of the deep retina. A parainfectious disorder was suggested but the exact mechanism of MEWDS is still unknown. Postulating that MEWDS might be an antigen driven inflammatory reaction, we analyzed HLA subtypes in patients with MEWDS. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Sixteen patients were diagnosed with MEWDS in Lausanne from 1985 to 1994. Blood was withdrawn in 9/16 patients. HLA-A, -B and -DR were sought. RESULTS: HLA-B51 was detected in 4/9 patients (44.4%). Other HLA subtypes were detected sporadically. CONCLUSIONS: The frequency of HLA-B51 haplotype was found to be 3.7 times more elevated than in a normal control caucasian group. This suggests the possibility that MEWDS might be a genetically determined disorder as it is the case for other ocular diseases like Birdshot chorioretinopathy (HLA-A29), Harada's disease (HLA-DRMT3), acute anterior uveitis (HLA-B27) or Behçet's disease (HLA-B51). We have no explanation for the presence of HLA-B51 in both Behçet's disease and MEWDS. The association of HLA-B51 and MEWDS needs confirmation by further testing.

Testing new identity models and processes in French-speaking adolescents and emerging adults students

Developing a sense of identity is a crucial psychosocial task for young people. The purpose of this study was to evaluate identity development in French-speaking adolescents and emerging adults (in France and Switzerland) using a process-oriented model of identity formation including five dimensions (i.e., exploration in breadth, commitment making, exploration in depth, identification with commitment, and ruminative exploration). The study included participants from three different samples (total N = 2239, 66.7% women): two samples of emerging adult student and one sample of adolescents. Results confirmed the hypothesized five-factor dimensional model of identity in our three samples and provided evidence for convergent validity of the model. The results also indicated that exploration in depth might be subdivided in two aspects: a first form of exploration in depth leading to a better understanding and to an increase of the strength of current commitments and a second form of exploration in depth leading to a re-evaluation and a reconsideration of current commitments. Further, the identity status cluster solution that emerged is globally in line with previous literature (i.e., achievement, foreclosure, moratorium, carefree diffusion, diffused diffusion, undifferentiated). However, despite a structural similarity, we found variations in identity profiles because identity development is shaped by cultural context. These specific variations are discussed in light of social, educational and economic differences between France and the French-speaking part of Switzerland. Implications and suggestions for future research are offered.

Limited clinical benefit of minority K103N and Y181C-variant detection in addition to routine genotypic resistance testing in antiretroviral therapy-naive patients.

OBJECTIVE: The presence of minority nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-resistant HIV-1 variants prior to antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been linked to virologic failure in treatment-naive patients. DESIGN: We performed a large retrospective study to determine the number of treatment failures that could have been prevented by implementing minority drug-resistant HIV-1 variant analyses in ART-naïve patients in whom no NNRTI resistance mutations were detected by routine resistance testing. METHODS: Of 1608 patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, who have initiated first-line ART with two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) and one NNRTI before July 2008, 519 patients were eligible by means of HIV-1 subtype, viral load and sample availability. Key NNRTI drug resistance mutations K103N and Y181C were measured by allele-specific PCR in 208 of 519 randomly chosen patients. RESULTS: Minority K103N and Y181C drug resistance mutations were detected in five out of 190 (2.6%) and 10 out of 201 (5%) patients, respectively. Focusing on 183 patients for whom virologic success or failure could be examined, virologic failure occurred in seven out of 183 (3.8%) patients; minority K103N and/or Y181C variants were present prior to ART initiation in only two of those patients. The NNRTI-containing, first-line ART was effective in 10 patients with preexisting minority NNRTI-resistant HIV-1 variant. CONCLUSION: As revealed in settings of case-control studies, minority NNRTI-resistant HIV-1 variants can have an impact on ART. However, the implementation of minority NNRTI-resistant HIV-1 variant analysis in addition to genotypic resistance testing (GRT) cannot be recommended in routine clinical settings. Additional associated risk factors need to be discovered.

Stepwise multiple testing as formalized data snooping

It is common in econometric applications that several hypothesis tests arecarried out at the same time. The problem then becomes how to decide whichhypotheses to reject, accounting for the multitude of tests. In this paper,we suggest a stepwise multiple testing procedure which asymptoticallycontrols the familywise error rate at a desired level. Compared to relatedsingle-step methods, our procedure is more powerful in the sense that itoften will reject more false hypotheses. In addition, we advocate the useof studentization when it is feasible. Unlike some stepwise methods, ourmethod implicitly captures the joint dependence structure of the teststatistics, which results in increased ability to detect alternativehypotheses. We prove our method asymptotically controls the familywise errorrate under minimal assumptions. We present our methodology in the context ofcomparing several strategies to a common benchmark and deciding whichstrategies actually beat the benchmark. However, our ideas can easily beextended and/or modied to other contexts, such as making inference for theindividual regression coecients in a multiple regression framework. Somesimulation studies show the improvements of our methods over previous proposals. We also provide an application to a set of real data.

Global Nash convergence of Foster and Young's regret testing

We construct an uncoupled randomized strategy of repeated play such that, if every player follows such a strategy, then the joint mixed strategy profiles converge, almost surely, to a Nash equilibrium of the one-shot game. The procedure requires very little in terms of players' information about the game. In fact, players' actions are based only on their own past payoffs and, in a variant of the strategy, players need not even know that their payoffs are determined through other players' actions. The procedure works for general finite games and is based on appropriate modifications of a simple stochastic learningrule introduced by Foster and Young.

The biogeography of mitochondrial and nuclear discordance in animals.

Combining nuclear (nuDNA) and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers has improved the power of molecular data to test phylogenetic and phylogeographic hypotheses and has highlighted the limitations of studies using only mtDNA markers. In fact, in the past decade, many conflicting geographic patterns between mitochondrial and nuclear genetic markers have been identified (i.e. mito-nuclear discordance). Our goals in this synthesis are to: (i) review known cases of mito-nuclear discordance in animal systems, (ii) to summarize the biogeographic patterns in each instance and (iii) to identify common drivers of discordance in various groups. In total, we identified 126 cases in animal systems with strong evidence of discordance between the biogeographic patterns obtained from mitochondrial DNA and those observed in the nuclear genome. In most cases, these patterns are attributed to adaptive introgression of mtDNA, demographic disparities and sex-biased asymmetries, with some studies also implicating hybrid zone movement, human introductions and Wolbachia infection in insects. We also discuss situations where divergent mtDNA clades seem to have arisen in the absence of geographic isolation. For those cases where foreign mtDNA haplotypes are found deep within the range of a second taxon, data suggest that those mtDNA haplotypes are more likely to be at a high frequency and are commonly driven by sex-biased asymmetries and/or adaptive introgression. In addition, we discuss the problems with inferring the processes causing discordance from biogeographic patterns that are common in many studies. In many cases, authors presented more than one explanation for discordant patterns in a given system, which indicates that likely more data are required. Ideally, to resolve this issue, we see important future work shifting focus from documenting the prevalence of mito-nuclear discordance towards testing hypotheses regarding the drivers of discordance. Indeed, there is great potential for certain cases of mitochondrial introgression to become important natural systems within which to test the effect of different mitochondrial genotypes on whole-animal phenotypes.

Testing Spatial Autocorrelation in Weighted Networks : the Modes Permutation Test

In a weighted spatial network, as specified by an exchange matrix, the variances of the spatial values are inversely proportional to the size of the regions. Spatial values are no more exchangeable under independence, thus weakening the rationale for ordinary permutation and bootstrap tests of spatial autocorrelation. We propose an alternative permutation test for spatial autocorrelation, based upon exchangeable spatial modes, constructed as linear orthogonal combinations of spatial values. The coefficients obtain as eigenvectors of the standardised exchange matrix appearing in spectral clustering, and generalise to the weighted case the concept of spatial filtering for connectivity matrices. Also, two proposals aimed at transforming an acessibility matrix into a exchange matrix with with a priori fixed margins are presented. Two examples (inter-regional migratory flows and binary adjacency networks) illustrate the formalism, rooted in the theory of spectral decomposition for reversible Markov chains.

Testing speaking in 2ND and 3RD cycles at Capeverdean EFL classrooms

This study aims to identify the constraints that complicate the assessment of speaking in Capeverdean EFL classrooms. A literature review was conducted on studies already done in the field of testing speaking in EFL Capeverdean classrooms. The study was carried out using qualitative method with some Capeverdean secondary school English teachers. The participants answered a questionnaire that asked teachers opinions and experiences about speaking assessment. The study found that Capeverdean English teachers do not adequately assess their students speaking ability. Therefore, the study pointed out the constraints of the Capeverdean context that complicate the assessment of speaking in EFL classrooms. The teachers reported the main constraints in order of significance as large classes, difficulty in marking oral tests, difficulty in designing oral tests and difficulty in separating the speaking skill from the listening skill. It concluded that Capeverdean English teachers need assistance with new tools to assess speaking in their classrooms. Thus, the author will make some suggestions, first to the Ministry of Education and then to English teachers in the field to assist them with the implementation of regular oral testing in Cape Verdean English classrooms.

An intense form of homeostatic proliferation of naive CD8+ cells driven by IL-2.

In conditions of T lymphopenia, interleukin (IL) 7 levels rise and, via T cell receptor for antigen-self-major histocompatibility complex (MHC) interaction, induce residual naive T cells to proliferate. This pattern of lymphopenia-induced "homeostatic" proliferation is typically quite slow and causes a gradual increase in total T cell numbers and differentiation into cells with features of memory cells. In contrast, we describe a novel form of homeostatic proliferation that occurs when naive T cells encounter raised levels of IL-2 and IL-15 in vivo. In this situation, CD8(+) T cells undergo massive expansion and rapid differentiation into effector cells, thus closely resembling the T cell response to foreign antigens. However, the responses induced by IL-2/IL-15 are not seen in MHC-deficient hosts, implying that the responses are driven by self-ligands. Hence, homeostatic proliferation of naive T cells can be either slow or fast, with the quality of the response to self being dictated by the particular cytokine (IL-7 vs. IL-2/IL-15) concerned. The relevance of the data to the gradual transition of naive T cells into memory-phenotype (MP) cells with age is discussed.