Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Bactrocera frauenfeldi (Diptera: Tephritidae), an invasive fruit fly in Australia that may have reached the extent of its spread due to environmental variables

Bactrocera frauenfeldi (Schiner), the ‘mango fruit fly’, is a horticultural pest originating from the Papua New Guinea region. It was first detected in Australia on Cape York Peninsula in north Queensland in 1974 and had spread to Cairns by 1994 and Townsville by 1997. Bactrocera frauenfeldi has not been recorded further south since then despite its invasive potential, an absence of any controls and an abundance of hosts in southern areas. Analysis of cue-lure trapping data from 1997 to 2012 in relation to environmental variables shows that the distribution of B. frauenfeldi in Queensland correlates to locations with a minimum temperature for the coldest month >13.2°C, annual temperature range <19.3°C, mean temperature of the driest quarter >20.2°C, precipitation of the wettest month >268 mm, precipitation of the wettest quarter >697 mm, temperature seasonality <30.9°C (i.e. lower temperature variability) and areas with higher human population per square kilometre. Annual temperature range was the most important variable in predicting this species' distribution. Predictive distribution maps based on an uncorrelated subset of these variables reasonably reflected the current distribution of this species in northern Australia and predicted other areas in the world potentially at risk from invasion by this species. This analysis shows that the distribution of B. frauenfeldi in Australia is correlated to certain environmental variables that have most likely limited this species' spread southward in Queensland. This is of importance to Australian horticulture in demonstrating that B. frauenfeldi is unlikely to establish in horticultural production areas further south than Townsville.

Halosulfuron-methyl: A selective herbicide option for the control of the invasive 'Cyperus aromaticus' (Ridley) Mattf. and Kukenth (Navua sedge)

There are currently limited options for the control of the invasive tropical perennial sedge 'Cyperus aromaticus' (Ridley) Mattf. and Kukenth (Navua sedge). The potential for halosulfuron-methyl as a selective herbicide for Navua sedge control in tropical pastures was investigated by undertaking successive field and shade house experiments in North Queensland, Australia. Halosulfuron-methyl and adjuvant rates, and combinations with other herbicides, were examined to identify a herbicide regime that most effectively reduced Navua sedge. Our research indicated that combining halosulfuron- methyl with other herbicides did not improve efficacy for Navua sedge control. We also identified that low rates of halosulfuron-methyl (25 g ha-1 a.i.) were just as effective as higher rates (73 g ha-1 a.i.) at controlling the sedge, and that this control relied on the addition of the adjuvant Bonza at the recommended concentration (1% of the spray volume). Pot trials in the controlled environment of the shade house achieved total mortality under these regimes. Field trials demonstrated more variable results with reductions in Navua sedge ranging between 40-95% at 8-10 weeks after treatment. After this period (16-24 weeks after treatment), regrowth of sedge, either from newly germinated seed, or of small plants protected from initial treatment, indicated sedge populations can rapidly increase to levels similar to pre-application, depending on the location and climatic conditions. Such variable results highlight the need for concerted monitoring of pastures to identify optimal treatment times. Ideally, initial treatment should be done when the sedge is healthy and actively growing, with follow up-treatments applied when new seed heads are produced from regrowth.

Fine-tuning of unmanned aerial surveillance for ecological systems

Much of our understanding and management of ecological processes requires knowledge of the distribution and abundance of species. Reliable abundance or density estimates are essential for managing both threatened and invasive populations, yet are often challenging to obtain. Recent and emerging technological advances, particularly in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), provide exciting opportunities to overcome these challenges in ecological surveillance. UAVs can provide automated, cost-effective surveillance and offer repeat surveys for pest incursions at an invasion front. They can capitalise on manoeuvrability and advanced imagery options to detect species that are cryptic due to behaviour, life-history or inaccessible habitat. UAVs may also cause less disturbance, in magnitude and duration, for sensitive fauna than other survey methods such as transect counting by humans or sniffer dogs. The surveillance approach depends upon the particular ecological context and the objective. For example, animal, plant and microbial target species differ in their movement, spread and observability. Lag-times may exist between a pest species presence at a site and its detectability, prompting a need for repeat surveys. Operationally, however, the frequency and coverage of UAV surveys may be limited by financial and other constraints, leading to errors in estimating species occurrence or density. We use simulation modelling to investigate how movement ecology should influence fine-scale decisions regarding ecological surveillance using UAVs. Movement and dispersal parameter choices allow contrasts between locally mobile but slow-dispersing populations, and species that are locally more static but invasive at the landscape scale. We find that low and slow UAV flights may offer the best monitoring strategy to predict local population densities in transects, but that the consequent reduction in overall area sampled may sacrifice the ability to reliably predict regional population density. Alternative flight plans may perform better, but this is also dependent on movement ecology and the magnitude of relative detection errors for different flight choices. Simulated investigations such as this will become increasingly useful to reveal how spatio-temporal extent and resolution of UAV monitoring should be adjusted to reduce observation errors and thus provide better population estimates, maximising the efficacy and efficiency of unmanned aerial surveys.

Impact of the invasive rust Puccinia psidii (myrtle rust) on native Myrtaceae in natural ecosystems in Australia

The invasive rust Puccinia psidii (myrtle rust) was detected in Australia in 2010 and is now established along the east coast from southern New South Wales to far north Queensland. Prior to reaching Australia, severe damage from P. psidii was mainly restricted to exotic eucalypt plantations in South America, guava plantations in Brazil, allspice plantations in Jamaica, and exotic Myrtaceous tree species in the USA; the only previous record of widespread damage in native environments is of endangered Eugenia koolauensis in Hawai’i. Using two rainforest tree species as indicators of the impact of P. psidii, we report for the first time severe damage to endemic Myrtaceae in native forests in Australia, after only 4 years’ exposure to P. psidii. A 3-year disease exclusion trial in a natural stand of Rhodamnia rubescens unequivocally showed that repeated, severe infection leads to gradual crown loss and ultimately tree mortality; trees were killed in less than 4 years. Significant (p < 0.001) correlations were found between both incidence (r = 0.36) and severity (r = 0.38) of P. psidii and subsequent crown loss (crown transparency). This provided supporting evidence to conclude a causal association between P. psidii and crown loss and tree mortality in our field assessments of R. rubescens and Rhodomyrtus psidioides across their native range. Assessments revealed high levels of damage by P. psidii to immature leaves, shoots and tree crowns—averaging 76 % (R. rubescens) and 95 % (R. psidioides) crown transparency—as well as tree mortality. For R. psidioides, we saw exceptionally high levels of tree mortality, with over half the trees surveyed dead and 40 % of stands with greater than 50 % tree mortality, including two stands where all trees were dead. Tree mortality was less prevalent for R. rubescens, with only 12 % of trees surveyed dead and two sites with greater than 50 % mortality. Any alternative causal agents for this tree mortality have been discounted. The ecological implications of this are unclear, but our work clearly illustrates the potential for P. psidii to negatively affect Australia’s biodiversity.

Chemical containment and eradication of screw− worm incursions in Australia

Screwworms are obligate, invasive parasites of warm-blooded animals. The female flies lay batches of eggs at the edge of wounds or other lesions. These eggs hatch to larvae or screw-worms which feed on affected animals for 6-7 days, burrowing deeply into subcutaneous tissues and causing severe trauma to animals, production loss and potentially death. Susceptible sites include wounds resulting from management practices such as castration, de-horning and ear tagging and lesions caused by the activities of other parasites such as buffalo flies and ticks. The navels of the new born and the vulval region of their mothers following parturition are highly susceptible and body orifices such as nose and ears are also frequent targets for ovipositing screwworm flies. The Old World screw-worm, Chrysomya bezziana (OWS) is considered one of the most serious exotic insect pest threatening Australia's livestock industries and is endemic in a number of our closest neighbouring countries. New World screwworm (NWS), Cochliomyia hominivorax, endemic to South America, has also entered Australia on at least 2 occasions. Many tropical and subtropical areas of Australia are suitable for the establishment of OWS and the potential range is expected to increase with climate change. The Australian screwworm preparedness strategy indicates a program of containment with chemical treatments followed by eradication of OWS using sterile male release and parasiticides. However, there is no longer an operational OWS sterile insect screw-worm facility anywhere in the world and establishing a large scale production facility would most optimistically take at least 2 years. In the interim, containment would be almost totally dependent on the availability of effective chemical controls. A review of chemical formulations available for potential use against OWS in Australia found that currently only one chemical, ivermectin administered by subcutaneous injection (s.c.) is registered for use against OWS and that many of the chemicals previously shown to be effective against OWS were no longer registered for animal use in Australia.18 From this review a number of Australian-registered chemicals were recommended as a priority for testing against OWS. The Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority (APVMA) can issue an emergency use permit for use of pesticides if they are registered in Australia for other animal uses and shown to be effective against OWS. This project tested the therapeutic and prophylactic efficacy of chemicals with potential for use in the treatment and control of OWS.

Finding country: A strategy for the city

An essay, succeeding the Finding Country exhibition, which details three teaching studios for Queensland University of Technology Architectural students; associated with the slowly developed idea about a symmetrical context between City and Country, and into another now titled 'Burning City'. The first studio introduced fire as a practice tool of Country and to establish a case for Country to be brought into context with the City. Both the second and third studios engaged students to extend the '50 per cent emptying concept' from the first studio. The second studio moved past spiritual anxiety as a matter of manage production and to engage at an architectural scale. The third studio was accompanied by an axonometric drawing and the enquiry stemmed from the context between burnt Country and emptied City. The next frontier for this project is to progress the strategy into real architecture and actions on the City. This will require confrontation with Country as a genuine origin.

Literacy, security, governmentality: Defining spaces, managing populations – How has education become part of whole of government security strategy?

In this paper I conduct a Foucauldian discourse analysis of a political speech given by Brendon Nelson in 2006 when the Australian Minister for Defence in the Howard Coalition Government. The speech connects conceptualisations of terror, globalization, education and literacy as part of a whole of government security strategy. The analysis examines this speech as an example of a liberal way of governing the conduct of diverse and unpredictable populations. My analysis suggests that the apparatus of government has been strategically used in order to biopolitically contain the rise of complex social forces and protect a set of homogenous cultural values. The purposes of education and uses of literacy are seen as instruments for the inscription of a coded set of values understood to be synonymous with civil society.

Seeking continuity: Educational strategy in and for mobile ADF families

This report shares findings and insights from an interview study conducted in 2009, with 34 ADF families. These families were identified in the communities of primary schools in both state and Catholic systems with high ADF family enrolments in 3 towns across 2 states, with the assistance of the DCO and their embedded Defence School Transition Aides (DSTAs). In the interviews the parents were invited to describe their history of ADF relocations, and how they managed transitions for each member in terms of school choice, child care arrangements, spouse employment, and educational transitions. Parallel interviews were conducted with 12 teachers and 6 DSTAs across the identified schools to describe how schools cater for mobile ADF families flowing through their classes. Parents were invited to tell the story of their family’s sequence of moves and how each member made the transition, then reflect more generally on what advice they’d give other mobile families. Teachers were asked to describe how they respond to the mobile families in their school community, and to illustrate some of the issues and challenges from the institutional perspective. By offering perspectives from both parents and teachers, the report hopes to facilitate a dialogue between parties to address their common goal – promoting productive continuities in education for children in mobile families.

Designing an emotional strategy : Strengthening digital channel engagements

The emergence of new technologies has revolutionized the way companies interact and build relationships with customers. The channel–customer relationship has traditionally been managed via a push approach in communication (“What can we sell customers?”) with the hope of cultivating customer loyalty. However, emotional understandings of customers and how they feel about a product, service, or business can drastically alter consumers’ engagement, behavior, and purchasing preferences. This rapidly evolving landscape has left managers at a loss, and what they are experiencing is likely the beginning of a tectonic shift in the way digital channels are designed, monitored, and managed. In this article, digital channel relationships are examined, and useful concepts for clarifying and refining the emotional meaning behind company strategy and their relationship to corresponding digital channels are detailed. Using three case study examples, we discuss the process and impact of such emotionally aware digital channel designs. Recommendations are made regarding how companies can select, design, and maintain digital engagements based on their strategy and industry needs.

Donor strategy under the fungibility of foreign aid

We develop a political–economic model of aid fungibility: a part of aid is diverted away from its intended target by lobby groups. The size of this diversion – the degree of aid fungibility – is determined endogenously by the recipient government. The donor can affect the equilibrium degree of fungibility by choosing both the size of aid and the timing of its decision. We derive a condition under which the donor's reaction to fungibility is to reduce the amount of aid. Under this condition, if the donor acts as a follower, both the donor and the target group are better off.

A Control Strategy for Reference Wave Adaptive Current Generation

Speed control of ac motors requires variable frequency, variable current, or variable voltage supply. Variable frequency supply can be obtained directly from a fixed frequency supply by using a frequency converter or from a dc source using inverters. In this paper a control technique for reference wave adaptive-current generation by modulating the inverter voltage is explained. Extension of this technique for three-phase induction-motor speed control is briefly explained. The oscillograms of the current waveforms obtained from the experimental setup are also shown.