Quality risk in global supply network

Purpose - The rise of recent product recalls reveals that manufacturing firms are particularly vulnerable to product quality and safety where goods and materials have been sourced globally. The purpose of this paper is to explore the issues of quality and safety problems in global supply networks, and introduce a supply chain risk management (SCRM) framework to reduce the quality risk. Design/methodology/approach - A conceptual SCRM framework for mitigating quality risk is developed. In addition, four SCRM treatment practices are proposed by consolidating the empirical literature in the operations management and supply chain management areas. The general feasibility was discussed based on literature. Findings - The research has identified the root causes of the recent product recalls and a series of product harm scandals ranging from automobiles to unsafe toys. Supply chains are extended by outsourcing and stretched by globalization, which greatly increase the complexity of supply networks and decrease the visibility in risk and operation processes. Originality/value - The paper identifies four SCRM practices, and proposes two distinct antecedents that can prompt the effectiveness of SCRM. © 2011 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.

An overview of psychological and neurobiological mechanisms by which early negative experiences increase risk of mood disorders

Objective: Early life experiences are associated with severe and long-lasting effects on behavioural and emotional functioning, which in turn are thought to increase the risk for unipolar depression and other disorders of affect regulation. The neurobiological and psychological mechanisms through which adverse early life experiences confer risk are poorly understood. Method: Alterations in brain structure and function in limbic and prefrontal cortical regions have been linked to early negative experiences and to mood disorders. Results: There are a number of psychological domains that may be dysfunctional in people with mood disorders, and which, if the dysfunction occurs prior to onset of mood symptoms, may signify a risk factor for depression. Cognitive dysfunction has been examined in patients with mood disorders, with some suggestion that changes in cognitive function may antedate the onset of mood symptoms, and may be exacerbated in those who experienced early negative trauma. Social cognition, including emotion comprehension, theory of mind and empathy, represent under-studied domains of psychological function that may be negatively influenced by early adverse experience. Temperament and personality factors may also leave people vulnerable to mood instability. Conclusion: This review summarizes the evidence for dysfunction in each of these domains for people with mood disorders.

Common variants of the TCF7L2 gene are associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in a UK-resident South Asian population

Background - Recent studies have implicated variants of the transcription factor 7-like 2 (TCF7L2) gene in genetic susceptibility to type 2 diabetes mellitus in several different populations. The aim of this study was to determine whether variants of this gene are also risk factors for type 2 diabetes development in a UK-resident South Asian cohort of Punjabi ancestry. Methods - We genotyped four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of TCF7L2 (rs7901695, rs7903146, rs11196205 and rs12255372) in 831 subjects with diabetes and 437 control subjects. Results - The minor allele of each variant was significantly associated with type 2 diabetes; the greatest risk of developing the disease was conferred by rs7903146, with an allelic odds ratio (OR) of 1.31 (95% CI: 1.11 – 1.56, p = 1.96 × 10-3). For each variant, disease risk associated with homozygosity for the minor allele was greater than that for heterozygotes, with the exception of rs12255372. To determine the effect on the observed associations of including young control subjects in our data set, we reanalysed the data using subsets of the control group defined by different minimum age thresholds. Increasing the minimum age of our control subjects resulted in a corresponding increase in OR for all variants of the gene (p ≤ 1.04 × 10-7). Conclusion - Our results support recent findings that TCF7L2 is an important genetic risk factor for the development of type 2 diabetes in multiple ethnic groups.

The role of longevity risk in Hungary

In this paper, I analyze the role of longevity risk in Hungary in the public pension system and the life annuity segment of the life insurance market, which are two primary financial sectors of relevance to this special type of actuarial risk, using state-of-the- art econometric methodology. To this end, I present an overview and the mathematical background of several important current mortality forecasting techniques from the Lee–Carter model up to unifying paradigm of the Age–Period–Cohort family of models. After presenting the findings of a case study on the public pension system based on the paper of Bajk ́o, Maknics, T ́oth and V ́ekas, I conclude that longevity risk jeopardizes the sustainability of the Hungarian public pension system in the long run. In another case study, I present an analysis of the role of longevity risk in the pre- mium of private pension annuities, a relevant topic due to recent changes in a law on Hungarian voluntary pension funds, following an earlier analysis of M ́ajer and Kov ́acs. Based on the criterion on out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, I find that the Cairns–Blake– Dowd mortality forecasting model aimed specifically at modeling old-age mortality outperforms the Lee–Carter model applied by M ́ajer and Kov ́acs . Based on numerical results, I finally conclude that the role of longevity risk in the Hungarian life annuity mar- ket has increased significantly in the past decade and is likely to further increase in the future.

Estimation of global systematic risk for securities listed in multiple markets

The market model is the most frequently estimated model in financial economics and has proven extremely useful in the estimation of systematic risk. In this era of rapid globalization of financial markets there has been a substantial increase in cross listings of stocks in foreign and regional capital markets. As many as a third to a half of the stocks in some major exchanges are foreign listed. The multiple listings of stocks has major implications for the estimation of systematic risk. The traditiona1 method of estimating the market model by using data from only one market will lead to misleading estimates of beta. This study demonstrates that the estimator for systematic risk and the methodology itself changes when stocks are listed in multiple markets. General expressions are developed to obtain the estimator of global beta under a variety of assumptions about the error terms of the market models for different capital markets. The assumptions pertain both to the volatilities of the abnormal returns in each market, and to the relationship between the markets. ^ Explicit expressions are derived for the estimation of global systematic risk beta when the returns are homoscedastic and also under different heteroscedastic conditions both within and/or between markets. These results for the estimation of global beta are further extended when return generating process follows an autoregressive scheme.^

Risk factors for type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases in Hispanic adolescents

This cross-sectional study evaluated risk factors (RF) for type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in 100 Hispanic adolescents(50 overweight, 50 non-overweight) aged 12-16 years, and their associations with body mass index (BMI), diet, physical activity (PA), gender, and birth weight (BW). The RF studied were fasting plasma glucose (FPG), insulin sensitivity (IS), total cholesterol (TC), triacylglycerols (TG), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), acanthosis nigricans (AN), and blood pressure (BP). Dietary intakes were assessed using the Block Kids Questionnaire, fat-related intake behavior (FB) using the Fat-Related Diet Habits Questionnaire, and PA using the Modifiable Activity Questionnaire for Adolescents. Blood was collected after an overnight fast of 12 hours. All statistical analyses used SPSS 14.0. Overweight adolescents had presence of AN, higher BP, TC, TG, and LDL, and lower IS, ps < .001, as compared to non-overweight adolescents. Overweight adolescents were more likely to have 1 and 2 RF for T2DM and CVD as compared to having 0, ps < .001, and 2 RF as compared to having 1, p =.033. Adolescents with kilocalorie (Kcal) intake above requirements for age gender, and PA level were 4.6 times more likely to be overweight, p = .005. Overweight adolescents had worse FB, p = .011, and lower PA, p < .001. Adolescents with worse FB had higher BP, p = .016. Fiber below recommendations (14g/1,000 Kcal) was associated with being overweight, p = .012, and lower IS, p = .040. Adolescents with higher BW had higher FPG, p = .013. Our findings point to an association between being overweight and RF for T2DM and CVD, suggesting that overweight during adolescence may have serious health consequences for Hispanic adolescents. Also, our results indicate that Hispanic overweight adolescents eat more Kcal and less fiber than required, have worst FB, and less PA levels than their non-overweight counterparts. In addition, high BW and dietary habits of Hispanic adolescents, such as low fiber and FB, increase their risk for T2DM and CVD. We conclude that BMI can serve as a useful tool to identify Hispanic adolescents at risk for T2DM and CVD.

Disaster Risk Management Disparity in the Caribbean: Evidence from Barbados, Dominican Republic, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago

This study on risk and disaster management capacities of four Caribbean countries: Barbados, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago, examines three main dimensions: 1) the impact of natural disasters from 1900 to 2010 (number of events, number of people killed, total number affected, and damage in US$); 2) institutional assessments of disaster risk management disparity; and 3) the 2010 Inter-American Bank for Development (IADB) Disaster Risk and Risk Management indicators for the countries under study. The results show high consistency among the different sources examined, pointing out the need to extend the IADB measurements to the rest of the Caribbean countries. Indexes and indicators constitute a comparison measure vis-à-vis existing benchmarks in order to anticipate a capacity to deal with adverse events and their consequences; however, the indexes and indicators could only be tested against the occurrence of a real event. Therefore, the need exists to establish a sustainable and comprehensive evaluation system after important disasters to assess a country‘s performance, verify the indicators, and gain feedback on measurement systems and methodologies. There is diversity in emergency and preparedness for disasters in the four countries under study. The nature of the event (hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and seismic activity), especially its frequency and the intensity of the damage experienced, is related to how each has designed its risk and disaster management policies and programs to face natural disasters. Vulnerabilities to disaster risks have been increasing, among other factors, because of uncontrolled urbanization, demographic density and poverty increase, social and economic marginalization, and lack of building code enforcement. The four countries under study have shown improvements in risk management capabilities, yet they are far from being completed prepared. Barbados‘ risk management performance is superior, in comparison, to the majority of the countries of the region. However, is still far in achieving high performance levels and sustainability in risk management, primarily when it has the highest gap between potential macroeconomic and financial losses and the ability to face them. The Dominican Republic has shown steady risk performance up to 2008, but two remaining areas for improvement are hazard monitoring and early warning systems. Jamaica has made uneven advances between 1990 and 2008, requiring significant improvements to achieve high performance levels and sustainability in risk management, as well as macroeconomic mitigation infrastructure. Trinidad and Tobago has the lowest risk management score of the 15 countries in the Latin American and Caribbean region as assessed by the IADB study in 2010, yet it has experienced an important vulnerability reduction. In sum, the results confirmed the high disaster risk management disparity in the Caribbean region.

Disater Risk Management Disparity in the Caribbean: Evidence from Barbados, Dominican Republic, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago

This study on risk and disaster management capacities of four Caribbean countries: Barbados, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago, examines three main dimensions: 1) the impact of natural disasters from 1900 to 2010 (number of events, number of people killed, total number affected, and damage in US$); 2) institutional assessments of disaster risk management disparity; and 3) the 2010 Inter-American Bank for Development (IADB) Disaster Risk and Risk Management indicators for the countries under study. The results show high consistency among the different sources examined, pointing out the need to extend the IADB measurements to the rest of the Caribbean countries. Indexes and indicators constitute a comparison measure vis-à-vis existing benchmarks in order to anticipate a capacity to deal with adverse events and their consequences; however, the indexes and indicators could only be tested against the occurrence of a real event. Therefore, the need exists to establish a sustainable and comprehensive evaluation system after important disasters to assess a country’s performance, verify the indicators, and gain feedback on measurement systems and methodologies. There is diversity in emergency and preparedness for disasters in the four countries under study. The nature of the event (hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and seismic activity), especially its frequency and the intensity of the damage experienced, is related to how each has designed its risk and disaster management policies and programs to face natural disasters. Vulnerabilities to disaster risks have been increasing, among other factors, because of uncontrolled urbanization, demographic density and poverty increase, social and economic marginalization, and lack of building code enforcement. The four countries under study have shown improvements in risk management capabilities, yet they are far from being completed prepared. Barbados’ risk management performance is superior, in comparison, to the majority of the countries of the region. However, is still far in achieving high performance levels and sustainability in risk management, primarily when it has the highest gap between potential macroeconomic and financial losses and the ability to face them. The Dominican Republic has shown steady risk performance up to 2008, but two remaining areas for improvement are hazard monitoring and early warning systems. Jamaica has made uneven advances between 1990 and 2008, requiring significant improvements to achieve high performance levels and sustainability in risk management, as well as macroeconomic mitigation infrastructure. Trinidad and Tobago has the lowest risk management score of the 15 countries in the Latin American and Caribbean region as assessed by the IADB study in 2010, yet it has experienced an important vulnerability reduction. In sum, the results confirmed the high disaster risk management disparity in the Caribbean region.

Social capital, HIV risk behavior and substance use among recent Latino immigrants in South Florida

Social capital, or social cohesion or group connectedness, can influence both HIV risk behavior and substance use. Because recent immigrants undergo a change in environment, one of the consequences can be a change in social capital. There may be an association among changes in social capital, and HIV risk behavior and substance use post immigration. The dissertation focused on the interface of these three variables among recent Latino immigrants (RLIs) in South Florida. The first manuscript is a systematic review of social capital and HIV risk behavior, and served as a partial background for the second and third manuscripts. Twelve papers with a measure of social capital as an independent variable and HIV risk as the dependent variable were included in the analysis. Eleven studies measured social capital at the individual level, and one study measured social capital at the group level. HIV risk was influenced by social capital, but the type of influence was dependent on the type of social capital and on the study population. Cognitive social capital, or levels of collective action, was protective against HIV in both men and women. The role of structural social capital, or levels of civic engagement/group participation, on HIV risk was dependent on the type of structural social capital and varied by gender. Microfinance programs and functional group participation were protective for women, while dysfunctional group participation and peer-level support may have increased HIV risk among men. The second manuscript was an original study assessing changes in social capital and HIV risk behavior pre to post immigration among RLIs in South Florida (n=527). HIV risk behavior was assessed through the frequency of vaginal-penile condom use, and the number of sexual partners. It was a longitudinal study using secondary data analysis to assess changes in social capital and HIV risk behavior pre immigration to two years post immigration, and to determine if there was a relationship between the two variables. There was an 8% decrease in total social capital (p < .05). Reporting of 'Never use' of condoms in the past 90 days increased in all subcategories (p < .05). Single men had a decrease in number of sexual partners (p < .05). Lower social capital measured on the dimension of 'friend and other' was marginally associated with fewer sexual partners. The third manuscript was another original study looking at the association between social capital and substance use among RLIs in South Florida (n=527). Substance use with measured by frequency of hazardous alcoholic drinking, and illicit drug use. It was a longitudinal study of social capital and substance-use from pre to two years post immigration. Post-immigration, social capital, hazardous drinking and illicit drug use decreased (p<.001). After adjusting for time, compared to males, females were less likely to engage in hazardous drinking (OR=.31, p<.001), and less likely to engage in illicit drug use (OR=.67, p=.01). Documentation status was a moderator between social capital and illicit drug use. 'Business' and 'Agency' social capital were associated with changes in illicit drug use for documented immigrants. After adjusting for gender and marital status, on average, documented immigrants with a one-unit increase in 'business' social capital were 1.2 times more likely to engage in illicit drug use (p<.01), and documented immigrants with one-unit increase in 'agency' social capital were 38% less likely to engage in illicit drug use (p<.01). 'Friend and other' social capital was associated with a decrease in illicit drug use among undocumented immigrants. After adjusting for gender and marital status, on average, undocumented immigrants with a one-unit increase in 'friend and other' social capital were 45% less likely to engage in hazardous drinking and 44% less likely to use illicit drugs (p<.01, p<.05). Studying these three domains is relevant because HIV continues to be a public health issue, particularly in Miami-Dade County, which is ranked among other U.S. regions with high rates of HIV/AIDS prevalence. Substance use is associated with HIV risk behavior; in most studies, increased substance use is associated with increased chances of HIV risk behavior. Immigration, which is the hypothesized catalyst for the change in social capital, has an impact on the dynamic of a society. Greater immigration can be burdensome on the host country's societal resources; however immigrants are also potentially a source of additional skilled labor for the workforce. Therefore, successful adaption of immigrants can have a positive influence on receiving communities. With Florida being a major receiver of immigrants to the U.S, this dissertation attempts to address an important public health issue for South Florida and the U.S. at large.

Antiplatelet therapy versus observation in low-risk essential thrombocythemia with CALR mutation

The role of antiplatelet therapy as primary prophylaxis of thrombosis in low-risk essential thrombocythemia has not been studied in randomized clinical trials. We assessed the benefit/risk of low-dose aspirin in 433 low-risk essential thrombocythemia patients (CALR-mutated n=271, JAK2V617F-mutated n=162) who were on antiplatelet therapy or observation only. After a 2215 person-years follow-up free from cytoreduction, 25 thrombotic and 17 bleeding episodes were recorded. In CALR-mutated patients, antiplatelet therapy did not affect the risk of thrombosis but was associated with a higher incidence of bleeding (12.9 vs. 1.8 x1000 patient-years, p=0.03). In JAK2V617F-mutated patients, low-dose aspirin was associated with a reduced incidence of venous thrombosis with no effect on the risk of bleeding. Coexistence of JAK2V617F-mutation and cardiovascular risk factors increased the risk of thrombosis, even after adjusting for treatment with low-dose aspirin (incidence rate ratio: 9.8; 95% confidence interval: 2.3-42.3; p=0.02). Time free from cytoreduction was significantly shorter in CALR-mutated than in JAK2V617F-mutated essential thrombocythemia (median time 5 years and 9.8 years, respectively; p=0.0002) usually to control extreme thrombocytosis. In conclusion, in patients with low-risk, CALR-mutated essential thrombocythemia, low-dose aspirin does not reduce the risk of thrombosis and may increase the risk of bleeding.

Multicenter randomized phase II clinical trial comparing neoadjuvant oxaliplatin, capecitabine, and preoperative radiotherapy with or without cetuximab followed by total mesorectal excision in patients with high-risk rectal cancer (EXPERT-C).

PURPOSE: To evaluate the addition of cetuximab to neoadjuvant chemotherapy before chemoradiotherapy in high-risk rectal cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with operable magnetic resonance imaging-defined high-risk rectal cancer received four cycles of capecitabine/oxaliplatin (CAPOX) followed by capecitabine chemoradiotherapy, surgery, and adjuvant CAPOX (four cycles) or the same regimen plus weekly cetuximab (CAPOX+C). The primary end point was complete response (CR; pathologic CR or, in patients not undergoing surgery, radiologic CR) in patients with KRAS/BRAF wild-type tumors. Secondary end points were radiologic response (RR), progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and safety in the wild-type and overall populations and a molecular biomarker analysis. RESULTS: One hundred sixty-five eligible patients were randomly assigned. Ninety (60%) of 149 assessable tumors were KRAS or BRAF wild type (CAPOX, n = 44; CAPOX+C, n = 46), and in these patients, the addition of cetuximab did not improve the primary end point of CR (9% v 11%, respectively; P = 1.0; odds ratio, 1.22) or PFS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.65; P = .363). Cetuximab significantly improved RR (CAPOX v CAPOX+C: after chemotherapy, 51% v 71%, respectively; P = .038; after chemoradiation, 75% v 93%, respectively; P = .028) and OS (HR, 0.27; P = .034). Skin toxicity and diarrhea were more frequent in the CAPOX+C arm. CONCLUSION: Cetuximab led to a significant increase in RR and OS in patients with KRAS/BRAF wild-type rectal cancer, but the primary end point of improved CR was not met.

Rare coding variants in the phospholipase D3 gene confer risk for Alzheimer's disease.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified several risk variants for late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD)1, 2. These common variants have replicable but small effects on LOAD risk and generally do not have obvious functional effects. Low-frequency coding variants, not detected by GWAS, are predicted to include functional variants with larger effects on risk. To identify low-frequency coding variants with large effects on LOAD risk, we carried out whole-exome sequencing (WES) in 14 large LOAD families and follow-up analyses of the candidate variants in several large LOAD case–control data sets. A rare variant in PLD3 (phospholipase D3; Val232Met) segregated with disease status in two independent families and doubled risk for Alzheimer’s disease in seven independent case–control series with a total of more than 11,000 cases and controls of European descent. Gene-based burden analyses in 4,387 cases and controls of European descent and 302 African American cases and controls, with complete sequence data for PLD3, reveal that several variants in this gene increase risk for Alzheimer’s disease in both populations. PLD3 is highly expressed in brain regions that are vulnerable to Alzheimer’s disease pathology, including hippocampus and cortex, and is expressed at significantly lower levels in neurons from Alzheimer’s disease brains compared to control brains. Overexpression of PLD3 leads to a significant decrease in intracellular amyloid-β precursor protein (APP) and extracellular Aβ42 and Aβ40 (the 42- and 40-residue isoforms of the amyloid-β peptide), and knockdown of PLD3 leads to a significant increase in extracellular Aβ42 and Aβ40. Together, our genetic and functional data indicate that carriers of PLD3 coding variants have a twofold increased risk for LOAD and that PLD3 influences APP processing. This study provides an example of how densely affected families may help to identify rare variants with large effects on risk for disease or other complex traits.

Older Adult Injury Risk Assessment in the Driving and Occupational Environments

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Twenty years of Hendra virus: laboratory submission trends and risk factors for infection in horses

Hendra virus (HeV) was first described in 1994 in an outbreak of acute and highly lethal disease in horses and humans in Australia. Equine cases continue to be diagnosed periodically, yet the predisposing factors for infection remain unclear. We undertook an analysis of equine submissions tested for HeV by the Queensland government veterinary reference laboratory over a 20-year period to identify and investigate any patterns. We found a marked increase in testing from July 2008, primarily reflecting a broadening of the HeV clinical case definition. Peaks in submissions for testing, and visitations to the Government HeV website, were associated with reported equine incidents. Significantly differing between-year HeV detection rates in north and south Queensland suggest a fundamental difference in risk exposure between the two regions. The statistical association between HeV detection and stockhorse type may suggest that husbandry is a more important risk determinant than breed per se. The detection of HeV in horses with neither neurological nor respiratory signs poses a risk management challenge for attending veterinarians and laboratory staff, reinforcing animal health authority recommendations that appropriate risk management strategies be employed for all sick horses, and by anyone handling sick horses or associated biological samples.

Twenty years of Hendra virus: laboratory submission trends and risk factors for infection in horses

SUMMARY Hendra virus (HeV) was first described in 1994 in an outbreak of acute and highly lethal disease in horses and humans in Australia. Equine cases continue to be diagnosed periodically, yet the predisposing factors for infection remain unclear. We undertook an analysis of equine submissions tested for HeV by the Queensland government veterinary reference laboratory over a 20-year period to identify and investigate any patterns. We found a marked increase in testing from July 2008, primarily reflecting a broadening of the HeV clinical case definition. Peaks in submissions for testing, and visitations to the Government HeV website, were associated with reported equine incidents. Significantly differing between-year HeV detection rates in north and south Queensland suggest a fundamental difference in risk exposure between the two regions. The statistical association between HeV detection and stockhorse type may suggest that husbandry is a more important risk determinant than breed per se. The detection of HeV in horses with neither neurological nor respiratory signs poses a risk management challenge for attending veterinarians and laboratory staff, reinforcing animal health authority recommendations that appropriate risk management strategies be employed for all sick horses, and by anyone handling sick horses or associated biological samples.