927 resultados para implied volatility, VIX, volatility forecasts, informational efficiency


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The level of incident radiation and the proportion of radiation that is diffuse affects radiation use efficiency (RUE) in crops, However, the degree of this effect, and its importance to growth and yield of sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) have not been established. A field experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of radiation environment on RUE, growth, and yield of sunflower. A fully irrigated crop was sown on an alluvial-prairie soil (Fluventic Haplustoll) and was exposed to three distinct radiation environments. In two treatments, the level of incident radiation was reduced by 14 and 20% by suspending tao different types of polyethylene plastic films well above the crop. In addition to the reductions in incident radiation, the proportion of radiation that was diffuse was increased by about 14% in these treatments. Lower incident radiation and increased proportion of diffuse radiation had no effect on total biomass, phenology, leaf area, and the canopy light extinction coefficient (k = 0.89). However, yield was reduced in shaded treatments due to smaller grain size and lower harvest index. Although crop RUE measured over the entire crop cycle (1.25 g/MJ) did not differ significantly among treatments, there was a trend where RUE compensated for less intercepted incident radiation. Theoretical derivations of the response of RUE to different levels of incident radiation supported this finding. Shaded sunflower crops have the ability to produce biomass similar to unshaded crops by increasing RUE, but have lower harvest indices.

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This article examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. The standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methodology is replaced by a probit model. This circumvents potential econometric problems, and allows us to implement more sophisticated betting strategies where bets are placed only when there is a relatively high probability of success. In-sample tests indicate that probit-based betting strategies generate statistically significant profits. Whereas the profitability of a number of these betting strategies is confirmed by out-of-sample testing, there is some inconsistency among the remaining out-of-sample predictions. Our results also suggest that widely documented inefficiencies in this market tend to dissipate over time.

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To evaluate the effects of heat acclimation on sweat rate redistribution and thermodynamic parameters, 9 tropical native volunteers were submitted to 11 days of exercise-heat exposures (40 +/- 0 degrees C and 45.1 +/- 0.2% relative humidity). Sudomotor function was evaluated by measuring total and local (forehead, chest, arm, forearm, and thigh) sweat rates, local sweat sodium concentration, and mean skin and rectal temperatures. We also calculated heat production (H), heat storage (S), heat exchange by radiation (R) and by convection (C), evaporated sweat (E(sw)), sweating efficiency (eta(sw)), skin wettedness (w(sk)), and the ratio between the heat storage and the sum of heat production and heat gains by radiation and convection (S/(H+R+C)). The heat acclimation increased the whole-body sweat rate and reduced the mean skin temperature. There were changes in the local sweat rate patterns: on the arm, forearm, and thigh it increased significantly from day 1 to day 11 (all p<0.05) and the sweat rates from the forehead and the chest showed a small nonsignificant increase (p=0.34 and 0.17, respectively). The relative increase of local sweat rates on day 11 was not different among the sites; however, when comparing the limbs (arm, forearm, and thigh) with the trunk (forehead and chest), there was a significant higher increase in the limbs (32 +/- 5%) in comparison to the trunk (11 +/- 2%, p=0.001). After the heat acclimation period we observed higher w(sk) and E(sw) and reduced S/(H+R+C), meaning greater thermoregulatory efficiency. The increase in the limb sweat rate, but not the increase in the trunk sweat rate, correlated with the increased w(sk), E(sw), and reduced S/(H+R+C) (p<0.05 to all). Altogether, it can be concluded that heat acclimation increased the limbs` sweat rates in tropical natives and that this increase led to increased loss of heat through evaporation of sweat and this higher sweat evaporation was related to higher thermoregulatory efficiency. J Physiol Anthropol 29(1): 1-12, 2010 http://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/browse/jpa2 [DOI: 10.2114/jpa2.29.1]

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In this paper we study the possible microscopic origin of heavy-tailed probability density distributions for the price variation of financial instruments. We extend the standard log-normal process to include another random component in the so-called stochastic volatility models. We study these models under an assumption, akin to the Born-Oppenheimer approximation, in which the volatility has already relaxed to its equilibrium distribution and acts as a background to the evolution of the price process. In this approximation, we show that all models of stochastic volatility should exhibit a scaling relation in the time lag of zero-drift modified log-returns. We verify that the Dow-Jones Industrial Average index indeed follows this scaling. We then focus on two popular stochastic volatility models, the Heston and Hull-White models. In particular, we show that in the Hull-White model the resulting probability distribution of log-returns in this approximation corresponds to the Tsallis (t-Student) distribution. The Tsallis parameters are given in terms of the microscopic stochastic volatility model. Finally, we show that the log-returns for 30 years Dow Jones index data is well fitted by a Tsallis distribution, obtaining the relevant parameters. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This study was designed to examine the use of the QuantiFERON-TB Gold assay as an aid in the diagnosis of active pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in Brazilian patients. Using the receiver operating characteristic curve, the cutoff was adjusted to >= 0.20 IU/ml. The sensitivity increased to 86%, with 100% specificity. All TB patients with negative sputum smear microscopy and negative culture results were positive using this test.

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In this paper, we propose a method based on association rule-mining to enhance the diagnosis of medical images (mammograms). It combines low-level features automatically extracted from images and high-level knowledge from specialists to search for patterns. Our method analyzes medical images and automatically generates suggestions of diagnoses employing mining of association rules. The suggestions of diagnosis are used to accelerate the image analysis performed by specialists as well as to provide them an alternative to work on. The proposed method uses two new algorithms, PreSAGe and HiCARe. The PreSAGe algorithm combines, in a single step, feature selection and discretization, and reduces the mining complexity. Experiments performed on PreSAGe show that this algorithm is highly suitable to perform feature selection and discretization in medical images. HiCARe is a new associative classifier. The HiCARe algorithm has an important property that makes it unique: it assigns multiple keywords per image to suggest a diagnosis with high values of accuracy. Our method was applied to real datasets, and the results show high sensitivity (up to 95%) and accuracy (up to 92%), allowing us to claim that the use of association rules is a powerful means to assist in the diagnosing task.

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Objective. To determine the blood recirculation ratio in the vascular access of patients on hemodialysis, and to calculate the Kt/Vs obtained with the different techniques of arteriovenous fistula punctures. Materials and Methods. A total of 174 patients were divided according to the technique used for arteriovenous fistula puncture: group 1, needles in opposite directions and with a distance of 5 cm or more between them; group 2, needles in opposite directions but with a distance of less than 5 cm; group 3, unidirectional needles with both directed to the heart and with a distance of 5 cm or more; group 4, unidirectional needles but separated by a distance of less than 5 cm between needles; and group 5, patients carrying a temporary venous catheter. Blood samples were collected for urea analysis, pre and post-dialysis for Kt/V rate, and other samples for calculation of the access recirculation. Results. Group 1 presented the lowest rate of access recirculation (8.51 +/- 4.90%) and the best Kt/V (1.71 +/- 0.36), while group 4 presented the worst access recirculation (20.68 +/- 4.92%) and Kt/V (1.16 +/- 0.26). All groups differed significantly from group 4 (p < 0.05), except group 5 with regard for Kt/V parameter. Discussion. The technique of arteriovenous fistula puncture is an essential factor to decrease the access recirculation and assure better results of measurement of hemodialysis adequacy. On the basis of the results obtained, insertion of the needles in the same direction and with a distance of less than 5 cm between them should be avoided.

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Impaired DNA repair efficiency in systematic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients has been reported ill some studies, mainly regarding the repair of oxidative damage, but little is known about repair kinetics towards primarily single-stranded DNA breaks. In the present study, we aimed to investigate: (a) the efficiency of SLE peripheral blood leucocytes in repairing DNA damage induced by ionizing radiation and (b) the association of DNA repair gene (XRCC1 Arg399Gln, XRCC3 Thr241Met and XRCC4 Ile401Thr) polymorphisms in SLE patients, considering the whole group, or stratified sub-groups according to clinical and laboratory features. A total of 163 SLE patients and 125 healthy control were studied. The kinetics of DNA strand break repair was evaluated by the comet assay, and genotyping for DNA repair genes was performed by PCR-RFLP. Compared with controls. SLE leucocytes exhibited decreased efficiency of DNA repair evaluated at 30 min following irradiation. A significant association with DNA repair gene polymorphisms was not observed for the whole group of SLE patients; however, the XRCC1Arg399Gln polymorphism was associated with the presence of anti-dsDNA antibody. The concomitance of two DNA repair polymorphic sites was associated with the presence of neuropsychiatric manifestations and antiphospholipid antibody syndrome. Taken together, these results indicated that SLE leucocytes repair less efficiently the radiation-induced DNA damage, and DNA repair polymorphic sites may predispose to the development of particular clinical and laboratory features. Lupus (2008) 17, 988-995.

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Environmental conditions play a significant role in the economic success of aquaculture. This article classifies environmental factors in a way that facilitates economic analysis of their implications for the selection of aquaculture species and systems. The implication of on-farm as on-site environmental conditions for this selection are considered first using profit-possibility frontiers and taking into account the biological law of environmental tolerance. However, in selecting, recommending and developing aquaculture species and systems, it is often unrealistic to assume the degree of managerial efficiency implied by the profit-possibility function. It is appropriate to take account of the degree of managerial inefficiency that actually exists, not all of which may be capable of being eliminated. Furthermore, experimental R&D should be geared to on-farm conditions, and the variability of these conditions needs to be taken into account. Particularly in shared water bodies, environmental spillovers between aquaculturalists can be important and as shown theoretically, can influence the socially optimal selection of aquaculture species and systems. Similarly, aquaculture can have environmental consequences for the rest of the community. The social economic implications of this for the selection of aquaculture species and systems are analyzed. Some paradoxical results are obtained. For example, if the quality of social governance of aquaculture is poor, aquaculture species and systems that cause a slow rate of environmental deterioration may be socially less satisfactory than those that cause a rapid rate of such deterioration. Socially optimal choice of aquaculture species and systems depends not only on their biophysical characteristics and market conditions but also on the prevailing state of governance of aquaculture. Failure to consider the last aspect can result in the introduction of new aquaculture species (and systems) doing more social harm than good.