First impressions matter: Signalling as a source of policy dynamics

We first establish that policymakers on the Bank of England's Monetary PolicyCommittee choose lower interest rates with experience. We then reject increasingconfidence in private information or learning about the structure of the macroeconomy as explanations for this shift. Instead, a model in which voters signal theirhawkishness to observers better fits the data. The motivation for signalling is consistent with wanting to control inflation expectations, but not career concerns orpleasing colleagues. There is also no evidence of capture by industry. The papersuggests that policy-motivated reputation building may be important for explainingdynamics in experts' policy choices.

The implicit theory of historical change in the work of Alan S. Milward

Alan S. Milward was an economic historian who developed an implicit theory ofhistorical change. His interpretation which was neither liberal nor Marxist positedthat social, political, and economic change, for it to be sustainable, had to be agradual process rather than one resulting from a sudden, cataclysmicrevolutionary event occurring in one sector of the economy or society. Benignchange depended much less on natural resource endowment or technologicaldevelopments than on the ability of state institutions to respond to changingpolitical demands from within each society. State bureaucracies were fundamentalto formulating those political demands and advising politicians of ways to meetthem. Since each society was different there was no single model of developmentto be adopted or which could be imposed successfully by one nation-state onothers, either through force or through foreign aid programs. Nor coulddevelopment be promoted simply by copying the model of a more successfuleconomy. Each nation-state had to find its own response to the political demandsarising from within its society. Integration occurred when a number of nation states shared similar political objectives which they could not meet individuallybut could meet collectively. It was not simply the result of their increasinginterdependence. It was how and whether nation-states responded to thesedomestic demands which determined the nature of historical change.

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool:Historical Development, Applications, and Future Research Directions, 2007

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is a continuation of nearly 30 years of modeling efforts conducted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Agricultural Research Service. SWAT has gained international acceptance as a robust interdisciplinary watershed modeling tool, as evidenced by international SWAT conferences, hundreds of SWAT-related papers presented at numerous scientific meetings, and dozens of articles published in peer-reviewed journals. The model has also been adopted as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s BASINS (Better Assessment Science Integrating Point & Nonpoint Sources) software package and is being used by many U.S. federal and state agencies, including the USDA within the Conservation Effects Assessment Project. At present, over 250 peer-reviewed, published articles have been identified that report SWAT applications, reviews of SWAT components, or other research that includes SWAT. Many of these peer-reviewed articles are summarized here according to relevant application categories such as streamflow calibration and related hydrologic analyses, climate change impacts on hydrology, pollutant load assessments, comparisons with other models, and sensitivity analyses and calibration techniques. Strengths and weaknesses of the model are presented, and recommended research needs for SWAT are provided.

Source inference of exogenous gamma-hydroxybutyric acid (GHB) administered to humans by means of carbon isotopic ratio analysis: novel perspectives regarding forensic investigation and intelligence issues.

γ-Hydroxybutyric acid (GHB) is an endogenous short-chain fatty acid popular as a recreational drug due to sedative and euphoric effects, but also often implicated in drug-facilitated sexual assaults owing to disinhibition and amnesic properties. Whilst discrimination between endogenous and exogenous GHB as required in intoxication cases may be achieved by the determination of the carbon isotope content, such information has not yet been exploited to answer source inference questions of forensic investigation and intelligence interests. However, potential isotopic fractionation effects occurring through the whole metabolism of GHB may be a major concern in this regard. Thus, urine specimens from six healthy male volunteers who ingested prescription GHB sodium salt, marketed as Xyrem(®), were analysed by means of gas chromatography/combustion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry to assess this particular topic. A very narrow range of δ(13)C values, spreading from -24.810/00 to -25.060/00, was observed, whilst mean δ(13)C value of Xyrem(®) corresponded to -24.990/00. Since urine samples and prescription drug could not be distinguished by means of statistical analysis, carbon isotopic effects and subsequent influence on δ(13)C values through GHB metabolism as a whole could be ruled out. Thus, a link between GHB as a raw matrix and found in a biological fluid may be established, bringing relevant information regarding source inference evaluation. Therefore, this study supports a diversified scope of exploitation for stable isotopes characterized in biological matrices from investigations on intoxication cases to drug intelligence programmes.

Does direct democracy reduce the size of government? New evidence from historical data, 1890-2000

Using historical data for all Swiss cantons from 1890 to 2000, we estimate the causal effect of direct democracy on government spending. The main innovation in this paper is that we use fixed effects to control for unobserved heterogeneity and instrumental variables to address the potential endogeneity of institutions. We find that the budget referendum and lower costs to launch a voter initiative are effective tools in reducing canton level spending. However, we find no evidence that the budget referendum results in more decentralized government or a larger local government. Our instrumental variable estimates suggest that a mandatory budget referendum reduces the size of canton spending between 13 and 19 percent. A 1 percent lower signature requirement for the initiative reduces canton spending by up to 2 percent.

Vital Statistics of Iowa in Brief, 2006

This publication is an historical recording of the most requested statistics on vital events and is a source of information that can be used in further analysis.

Debt sustainability in historical perspective: The role of fiscal repression

This article examines the debt history of two contenders for European hegemony: 16th-centurySpain and 18th-century Britain. We analyze their fiscal behavior using measures of overborrowingand fiscal policy functions. Our results suggest that stringency was not key for Britain ssuccess in avoiding default. Instead, fiscal repression allowed the United Kingdom to borrowat below-market rates, thereby outspending its continental rivals.

Leasing como alternativa de financiamento de empresas em Cabo Verde - Análise prática de efeitos económicos, financeiros e contabilísticos

Criar mecanismos que produzam e dinamizem o alcance de novos produtos financeiros surge como uma condição necessária para estimular o investimento. Além das condições intrínsecas próprias de uma economia o financiamento é quase que a espinha dorsal para favorecer o desenvolvimento e crescimento económicos. Diversificar as fontes de financiamento para que estas se adaptem à realidade económico-financeira das empresas é essencial, pois não só possibilita o crescimento das empresas nacionais, mas também cria um ambiente de negócios propício ao investimento externo. Convicto da relevância, o presente trabalho tem como escopo uma temática que a nível nacional pouco se tem abordado: trata-se locação financeira que na gíria financeira é entendida por leasing - que de forma sintética se traduz num contrato pelo qual uma das partes concede à outra o gozo temporário de uma coisa contra uma retribuição, e que posteriormente pode ser adquirida, num prazo convencionado, mediante pagamento de um preço determinado ou determinável, nos termos do próprio contrato. O enfoque está em estudar a relevância assumida pelo leasing enquanto fonte de financiamento de médio e longo prazo, no contexto cabo-verdiano, comparativamente à outra fonte – empréstimo bancário de médio e longo prazo. O trabalho reveste-se de uma componente teórica e uma prática. Na componente teórica trata-se do tema no geral, abrangendo uma resenha histórica, o enquadramento legal, das sociedades de locação financeira e dos contratos de locação financeira, tratamento contabilístico, as características específicas que se associam ao tema em apreço e igualmente uma breve análise fiscal. A parte prática desenvolve uma análise comparativa do leasing com o empréstimo bancário de médio e longo prazo onde foram retiradas as conclusões chegadas com o estudo. Resumidamente, pode-se que o leasing é certamente uma das melhores opções de financiamento não só para empresas como igualmente para clientes particulares, sendo, uma opção rápida, simples e vantajosa para o cliente bancário, especialmente se o facto de a propriedade do bem não pertencer ao titular do leasing não causar qualquer incómodo. Create mechanisms that produce and streamline the range of new financial products emerges as a necessary condition to stimulate investment. In addition to its own intrinsic conditions of an economy funding is almost the backbone to promote economic development and growth. Diversify the sources of funding for these adapt to the reality of the economic-financial firms is essential because not only enables the growth of domestic companies, but also creates a business environment conducive to foreign investment. Convinced of the relevance, this work is scoped to a theme that nationally there has been little discussed: it is leasing in slang that is understood by financial leasing - which synthetically translates into a contract whereby one party grants to the another the temporary enjoyment of a thing against retribution, and that can later be acquired within the agreed upon payment of a specified or ascertainable under the contract. The focus is on studying the relevance assumed by leasing as a source of financing medium and long term, the Cape Verdean context, compared to other sources - bank loan of medium and long term. The work has a theoretical and a practical component. In the theoretical part it is the theme in general, covering a historical perspective, the legal framework, the leasing companies and financial leasing contracts, accounting treatment, specific characteristics that are associated to the topic at hand and equally a brief fiscal analysis. The practical part develops a comparative analysis of leasing with bank loan of medium and long term which were withdrawn with the conclusions reached with the study. Briefly, it may be that leasing is certainly one of the best financing options not only by companies as also by private customers, being a fast, simple and profitable for the bank customer, especially if the fact that the ownership of the property does not belong the holder of the lease does not cause any discomfort.

A estação arqueológica de Salamansa (ilha de São Vicente, República de Cabo Verde)

Apresentam‑se os principais resultados obtidos nas duas missões arqueológicas patrocinadas pelo Centro Português de Actividades Subaquáticas (CPAS) à ilha de São Vicente (República de Cabo Verde), em 1998 e em 2005. Em 1998, confirmou‑se o efectivo interesse arqueológico do sítio, localizado sobre o mar, em local abrigado da vasta baía de Salamansa, situada na parte setentrional da ilha, tendo‑se registado a respectiva extensão e estratigrafia e procedido à colheita de amostras para datação. Embora os resultados dessa campanha tivessem sido publicados, indicando estação de carácter habitacional, revelada pela notável acumulação de conchas, acompanhada de abundantes fragmentos de cerâmicas manuais, de produção africana, mantinha‑se indefinida a sua verdadeira natureza. Impunha‑se, assim, proceder à escavação integral da área que ainda subsistia da estação — sujeita de forma contínua a forte erosão marinha — bem como à colheita de novos materiais para datação, de forma a confirmar as conclusões preliminares anteriormente obtidas, objectivos que se concretizaram em 2005. Deste modo, foi possível concluir que, contrariando a hipótese, de início considerada, de poder corresponder a um testemunho da ocupação da ilha em época anterior à chegada dos Portugueses — hipótese que já as primeiras datas de radiocarbono contradiziam — se trata de um sítio onde uma unidade habitacional construída por muros de pedra seca, de planta ortogonal, revela inspiração europeia, aliás sublinhada pelos materiais exumados, onde estão representados produtos com tal origem, como cachimbos de caulino, vidros, faianças portuguesas, e projécteis de armas de fogo, a par de objectos oriundos do Extremo Oriente, num quadro dominado pelas produções cerâmicas africanas. Esta situação evidencia um estabelecimento cuja ocupação se centrou no século XVII, conforme indicam os materiais recolhidos e os resultados das datações obtidas, francamente aberto aos contactos de longa distância, apesar do isolamento do local escolhido. Os restos faunísticos recolhidos, com a presença deburro e de boi, sugerem um estacionamento sedentário, sendo a alimentação assegurada essencialmente pela captura de tartarugas, pela pesca e pela recolecção de moluscos marinhos (especialmente grandes lapas) e complementada pelo consumo de cabra, que poderia ser doméstica ou caçada, dado o estado selvagem a que retornou ali esta espécie. na última parte do trabalho, discutem‑se as diversas hipóteses susceptíveis de explicar esta estação — desde um entreposto comercial relacionado com a exploração agro‑pecuária da ilha de Santo Antão, passando por pequeno estabelecimento especializado de apoio à navegação, com a produção de carne salgada de tartaruga, até ter constituído refúgio relacionado com a intensa pirataria vigente à época no arquipélago, tendo presente os elementos históricos conhecidos, que, aliás, indicam que o início da ocupação permanente de São Vicente só se produziu a partir da segunda década do século XIX. Seja como for, a forte componente cultural africana revelada pelo espólio destes primeiros ocupantes da ilha expressa‑se também pelos rituais que terão envolvido o abandono do estabelecimento, com o enterramento de dois vasos emborcados sob o chão da habitação explorada, e a deposição de uma pequena taça, nas mesmas circunstâncias, junto à parede da mesma, do lado externo.

2007 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Selected Iowa Source Categories

The Department’s 2007 Greenhouse Gas Inventory is a refinement of previous statewide inventories. It is a bottom-up inventory of two sectors – fossil fuel combustion at federally-recognized major sources of air pollution and fossil fuel combustion and ethanol fermentation at dry mill ethanol plants. This is the first bottomup greenhouse gas inventory conducted for Iowa and the first bottom-up greenhouse gas inventory of ethanol plants in the nation that the Department is aware of. In a bottom-up inventory, facility-specific activity data is used to calculate emissions. In a top-down inventory, aggregate activity data is used to calculate emissions. For example, this bottom-up inventory calculates greenhouse gas emissions from the fossil fuel combustion at each individual facility instead of using the total amount of fossil fuel combusted state-wide, which would be a top-down inventory method. The advantage to a bottom-up inventory is that the calculations are more accurate than a top-down inventory. However, because the two methods differ, the results from a bottom-up inventory are not directly comparable to a top-down inventory.

Did colonization matter for growth? An empirical exploration into the historical causes of Africa's underdevelopment

We investigate the impact of 20th--century European colonizationon growth in Africa. We find that in the 1960--88 period growth has beenfaster for dependencies than for colonies; for British and Frenchcolonies than for Portuguese, Belgian and Italian ones; and for countrieswith less economic penetration during the colonial period. On average,African growth accelerates after decolonization. Proxies for colonialheritage add explanatory power to growth regressions and make indicatorsfor human capital, political and ethnic instability lose significance.Colonial variables capture the same effects of a sub--Saharan dummy andreduce its significance when jointly included in a cross sectionalregression with 98 countries.

Insects associated with the composting process of solid urban waste separated at the source

Sarcosaprophagous macroinvertebrates (earthworms, termites and a number of Diptera larvae) enhance changes in the physical and chemical properties of organic matter during degradation and stabilization processes in composting, causing a decrease in the molecular weights of compounds. This activity makes these organisms excellent recyclers of organic matter. This article evaluates the succession of insects associated with the decomposition of solid urban waste separated at the source. The study was carried out in the city of Medellin, Colombia. A total of 11,732 individuals were determined, belonging to the classes Insecta and Arachnida. Species of three orders of Insecta were identified, Diptera, Coleoptera and Hymenoptera. Diptera corresponding to 98.5% of the total, was the most abundant and diverse group, with 16 families (Calliphoridae, Drosophilidae, Psychodidae, Fanniidae, Muscidae, Milichiidae, Ulidiidae, Scatopsidae, Sepsidae, Sphaeroceridae, Heleomyzidae, Stratiomyidae, Syrphidae, Phoridae, Tephritidae and Curtonotidae) followed by Coleoptera with five families (Carabidae, Staphylinidae, Ptiliidae, Hydrophilidae and Phalacaridae). Three stages were observed during the composting process, allowing species associated with each stage to be identified. Other species were also present throughout the whole process. In terms of number of species, Diptera was the most important group observed, particularly Ornidia obesa, considered a highly invasive species, and Hermetia illuscens, both reported as beneficial for decomposition of organic matter.