Group-Based Symptom Trajectories in Indicated Prevention of Adolescent Depression

Background: Adolescent depression prevention research has focused on mean intervention outcomes, but has not considered heterogeneity in symptom course. Here, we empirically identify subgroups with distinct trajectories of depressive symptom change among adolescents enrolled in two indicated depression preven- tion trials and examine how cognitive-behavioral (CB) interventions and baseline predictors relate to trajectory membership. Methods: Six hundred thirty-one participants were assigned to one of three conditions: CB group intervention, CB bibliotherapy, and brochure control. We used group-based trajectory modeling to identify trajectories of depressive symptoms from pretest to 2-year follow-up. We examined associations between class membership and conditions using chi- square tests and baseline predictors using multinomial regressions. Results: We identified four trajectories in the full sample. Qualitatively similar trajectories were found in each condition separately. Two trajectories of positive symptom course (low-declining, high-declining) had declining symptoms and were dis- tinguished by baseline symptom severity. Two trajectories of negative course (high-persistent, resurging), respectively, showed no decline in symptoms or de- cline followed by symptom reappearance. Participants in the brochure control condition were significantly more likely to populate the high-persistent trajectory relative to either CB condition and were significantly less likely to populate the low-declining trajectory relative to CB group. Several baseline factors predicted trajectory classes, but gender was the most informative prognostic factor, with males having increased odds of membership in a high-persistent trajectory rel- ative to other trajectories. Conclusions: Findings suggest that CB preventive interventions do not alter the nature of trajectories, but reduce the risk that adolescents follow a trajectory of chronically elevated symptoms.

Factor Markets in Applied Equilibrium Models: The current state and planned extensions towards an improved presentation of factor markets in agriculture. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 23, February 2012

This paper describes how factor markets are presented in applied equilibrium models and how we plan to improve and to extend the presentation of factor markets in two specific models: MAGNET and ESIM. We do not argue that partial equilibrium models should become more ‘general’ in the sense of integrating all factor markets, but that the shift of agricultural income policies to decoupled payments linked to land in the EU necessitates the inclusion of land markets in policy-relevant modelling tools. To this end, this paper outlines options to integrate land markets in partial equilibrium models. A special feature of general equilibrium models is the inclusion of fully integrated factor markets in the system of equations to describe the functionality of a single country or a group of countries. Thus, this paper focuses on the implementation and improved representation of agricultural factor markets (land, labour and capital) in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. This paper outlines the presentation of factor markets with an overview of currently applied CGE models and describes selected options to improve and extend the current factor market modelling in the MAGNET model, which also uses the results and empirical findings of our partners in this FP project.

Group-Based Symptom Trajectories in Indicated Prevention of Adolescent Depression

Background: Adolescent depression prevention research has focused on mean intervention outcomes, but has not considered heterogeneity in symptom course. Here, we empirically identify subgroups with distinct trajectories of depressive symptom change among adolescents enrolled in two indicated depression preven- tion trials and examine how cognitive-behavioral (CB) interventions and baseline predictors relate to trajectory membership. Methods: Six hundred thirty-one participants were assigned to one of three conditions: CB group intervention, CB bibliotherapy, and brochure control. We used group-based trajectory modeling to identify trajectories of depressive symptoms from pretest to 2-year follow-up. We examined associations between class membership and conditions using chi- square tests and baseline predictors using multinomial regressions. Results: We identified four trajectories in the full sample. Qualitatively similar trajectories were found in each condition separately. Two trajectories of positive symptom course (low-declining, high-declining) had declining symptoms and were dis- tinguished by baseline symptom severity. Two trajectories of negative course (high-persistent, resurging), respectively, showed no decline in symptoms or de- cline followed by symptom reappearance. Participants in the brochure control condition were significantly more likely to populate the high-persistent trajectory relative to either CB condition and were significantly less likely to populate the low-declining trajectory relative to CB group. Several baseline factors predicted trajectory classes, but gender was the most informative prognostic factor, with males having increased odds of membership in a high-persistent trajectory rel- ative to other trajectories. Conclusions: Findings suggest that CB preventive interventions do not alter the nature of trajectories, but reduce the risk that adolescents follow a trajectory of chronically elevated symptoms.

Age models of sediment cores from the North-West African continental margin

A statistical analysis ol 15 deep sea cores in the eastern North Atlantic off NW Africa revealed the typical fluctuation pattern of distinct species proups as has been described from various parts of the world ocean. Only the "WBF-group" appears to be correlated with global climatic changes, i.e. warmer periods as the Eemian and the Atlanticum. A partly antagonistic "High Productivity group" (HPR-group) is in general not linked with global changes but times of increased fertility in the surface water and the resulting flux of organic matter reaching the bottom. The groups were extracted from cluster analysis of more than 150 surface samples (HPR-group) and a factor analysis of selected cores (WBF-group). In contrast to previous studies the observed fluctuations can not be explained by drastic changes in bottom water masses, but by the pulsation of a distinct "High Productivity Patch" in space and time. At present, this patch is located below the well known upwelling area between 22° and 12° northern latitude. It shifted to the north (up to 27 °N) during the latest glacial period ( 18 ky), indicating an equivalent shift of upwelling productivity caused by advection of nutrient rich upwelling SACW-waters, probably during most of isotopic stages 2 and 3.

Sequential decision models. ONR Project NONR-1141(08)

Photocopy.

Modern mathematical methods and models; a book of experimental text materials.

v. 1. Multicomponent methods.--v. 2. Mathematical models.

Fox River Watershed investigation : Stratton Dam to the Illinois River, Phase II : hydrologic models and water quality simulation models, part 2 : Blackberry and Poplar Creek HSPF models, calibration and initial simulation results /

"June 2007."

Fox River Watershed Investigation : Stratton Dam to the Illinois River : Phase II : Blackberry Creek and Poplar Creek hydrologic and water quality simulation models : executive summary.

"June 2007."

Ordnance field and depot maintenance : starter, engine, assembly 2920-753-8988, 2920-141-9508, and 2920-620-6821 (Jack & Heintz models D30, D42, and 20074-000).

"August 1959."

Organizational and field maintenance manual : sewing machines for the repair of parachutes and allied equipment, Singer models 112W116, (FSN 3530-171-2123) ... 111W155, (FSN 3530-359-8856).

Includes index.

Operator's, organizational, field and depot maintenance manual for body, stake, component of truck bridging, FSN 2320-200-1682 (all makes and models) for mounting on ORD M-139 chassis, (FSN 2510-510-5191).

Includes index.

Operator, organizational, DS, and GS maintenance manual : air conditioner, compact, vertical, 208V, 3 phase, 18,000 BTUH cooling, 12,000 BTUH heating, (Trane models), 50/60 hertz model CE20VAL6, FSN 4120-973-4589, 400 hertz model CE20VAL4, FSN 4120-858-5795.

"November 1969."

Operator, organizational, and field maintenance manual : voltmeter, phase angle ME-223/U and North Atlantic Industries models 202R and 202AR.

"August 1962."

Cognitive change processes in a group cognitive behavior therapy of depression

The present study attempted to examine the causal relationships among changes in automatic thoughts, dysfunctional attitudes, and depressive symptoms in a 12-week group cognitive behavior therapy (GCBT) program for depression. In all, 35 depressed patients attending the GCBT program were monitored with the Automatic Thoughts Questionnaire, Dysfunctional Attitudes Scale, and Beck Depression Inventory at the pre-treatment, 4th and 8th sessions, and post-treatment. The results were as follows: (1) GCBT reduces negative cognitions; (2) changes in automatic thoughts and dysfunctional attitudes lead to change in depressive symptoms; and (3) automatic thoughts play a mediating role between dysfunctional attitudes and depression. The findings taken as a whole support the Causal Cognition Model of depression. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Punctuated equilibrium and linear progression: Toward a new understanding of group development

This study proposes gaining a new understanding of group development by considering the integrative and the punctuated equilibrium models of group development as complementary rather than competing. We hypothesized that we would observe both punctuated equilibrium and linear progression in content-analyzed data from 25 simulated project teams, albeit on different dimensions. We predicted changes in time awareness and in task and pacing activity in line with the punctuated equilibrium model and changes in structure and process on task and socioemotional dimensions in line with the integrative model. Results partially supported predictions for both models.