Forward Stagewise Naive Bayes

The naïve Bayes approach is a simple but often satisfactory method for supervised classification. In this paper, we focus on the naïve Bayes model and propose the application of regularization techniques to learn a naïve Bayes classifier. The main contribution of the paper is a stagewise version of the selective naïve Bayes, which can be considered a regularized version of the naïve Bayes model. We call it forward stagewise naïve Bayes. For comparison’s sake, we also introduce an explicitly regularized formulation of the naïve Bayes model, where conditional independence (absence of arcs) is promoted via an L 1/L 2-group penalty on the parameters that define the conditional probability distributions. Although already published in the literature, this idea has only been applied for continuous predictors. We extend this formulation to discrete predictors and propose a modification that yields an adaptive penalization. We show that, whereas the L 1/L 2 group penalty formulation only discards irrelevant predictors, the forward stagewise naïve Bayes can discard both irrelevant and redundant predictors, which are known to be harmful for the naïve Bayes classifier. Both approaches, however, usually improve the classical naïve Bayes model’s accuracy.

Single-Stage Grid-Connected Forward Microinverter with Boundary Mode Control

This paper presents a microinverter to be integrated into a solar module. The proposed solution combines a forward converter and a constant off-time boundary mode control, providing MPPT capability and unity power factor in a single-stage converter. The transformer structure of the power stage remains as in the classical DC-DC forward converter. Transformer primary windings are utilized for power transfer or demagnetization depending on the grid semi-cycle. Furthermore, bidirectional switches are used on the secondary side allowing direct connection of the inverter to the grid. Design considerations for the proposed solution are provided, regarding the inductance value, transformer turns ratio and frequency variation during a line semi-cycle. The decoupling of the twice the line frequency power pulsation is also discussed, as well as the maximum power point tracking (MPPT) capability. Simulation and experimental results for a 100W prototype are enclosed

Evaluation of the trading development in the Iberian Energy Derivatives Market

The efficiency of the Iberian Energy Derivatives Market in its first five and a half years is assessed in terms of volume, open interest and price. The continuous market shows steady liquidity growth. Its volume is strongly correlated to that of the Over The Counter (OTC) market, the amount of market makers, the enrolment of financial agents and generation companies belonging to the integrated group of last resort suppliers, and the OTC cleared volume in its clearing house. The hedging efficiency, measured through the ratio between the final open interest and the cleared volume, shows the lowest values for the Spanish base load futures as they are the most liquid contracts. The ex-post forward risk premium has diminished due to the learning curve and the effect of the fixed price retributing the indigenous coal fired generation. This market is quite less developed than the European leaders headquartered in Norway and Germany. Enrolment of more traders, mainly international energy companies, financial agents, energy intensive industries and renewable generation companies is desired. Market monitoring reports by the market operator providing post-trade transparency, OTC data access by the energy regulator, and assessment of the regulatory risk can contribute to efficiency gains.

The first renewable forward market mechanisms in the Iberian Electricity Market

A description of the first renewable forward market mechanisms in the Iberian Electricity Market is provided. A contract for difference mechanism is available in Spain since March 2011between the last resort suppliers and the special regime (renewables and cogeneration) settling the price differences between the equilibrium price of the forward regulated auctions for the last resort supply and the spot price of the corresponding delivery period. Regulated auctions of baseload futures of the Portuguese zone in which the Portuguese last resort supplier sells the special regime production exist since December 2011. The experience gained from renewables auctions in Latin America could be used in the Iberian Electricity market, complementing these first market mechanisms. Introduction of renewable auctions at least for the most mature technologies (i.e. wind) in Spain and Portugal providing a fair price for the renewable generation will be of utmost importance in the short term to diminish the tariff deficit caused by the massive deployment of the feed-in-tariff scheme. Liquidity in the forward markets will also increase as a result of the entry of renewable generation companies intending to maximize their profits due to gradual suppression of feed in tariff schemes.

Una pieza más para el puzzle

El autor reflexiona sobre la influencia de la economía y los cambios históricos en la concepción de la ciencia. A raíz de la caída de la URSS, Martín Pereda considera que la ciencia y la tecnología deben desarrollarse basándose en la cooperación entre las naciones y los científicos.

Analysis of the Iberian electricity forward market hedging efficiency

An assessment of the hedging performance in the Iberian Forward Electricity Market is performed. Aggregated data from the Portuguese and Spanish clearing houses for energy derivatives are considered. The hedging performance is measured through the ratio of the final open interest of a month derivatives contract divided by its accumulated cleared volume. The base load futures in the Iberian energy derivatives exchange show the lowest ratios due to good liquidity. The peak futures show bigger ratios as their reduced liquidity is produced by auctions fixed by Portuguese regulation. The base load swaps settled in the clearing house located in Spain show initially large values due to low registered volumes, as this clearing house is mainly used for short maturity (daily and weekly swaps). This hedging ratio can be a powerful oversight tool for energy regulators when accessing to all the derivatives transactions as envisaged by European regulation.

Forward micro-inverter with primary-parallel secondary-series multicore transformer

This paper presents a primary-parallel secondary-series multicore forward micro-inverter for photovoltaic AC-module application. The proposed solution changes the number of active phases depending on the grid voltage, thus enabling the usage of low-profile unitary turns ratio transformers. Therefore, the transformers are well coupled and the overall performance of the inverter is improved. Due to the multiphase solution the number of devices increases but, the current stress and losses per device are reduced contributing to an easier thermal management. Furthermore, the decoupling capacitor is split between the phases, contributing to a low-profile solution without electrolytic capacitors suitable to be mounted in the frame of a PV module.

Evaluación de un forward modelling de ondas sísmicas : aplicación práctica del efecto source ghost

Se ha utilizado un programa de modelización de ondas sísmicas por métodos finitos en dos dimensiones para analizar el efecto Source Ghost en profundidades de 4, 14, 24 y 34 metros. Este efecto se produce cuando se dispara una fuente enterrada y, debido al contacto suelo-aire, se genera una onda reflejada que, en cierto momento, se superpone con la onda principal, produciéndose una disminución de la amplitud de la onda (Source Ghost). Los resultados teóricos del efecto se han comparado con los resultados prácticos del programa de modelización concluyéndose que es posible determinar el rango de frecuencias afectado por el efecto. Sin embargo, la distancia entre receptor y fuente es una nueva variable que desplaza el efecto hacia frecuencias más altas impidiendo su predicción. La utilización de una técnica de procesamiento básica como la corrección del Normal Move-Out (NMO) en el apilado de las trazas, contrarresta la variable distancia receptor-fuente, y por tanto es posible calcular el rango de frecuencias del efecto Source Ghost. Abstract A seismic wave forward modeling in two dimensions using finite-difference method has been used for analyzing the Source Ghost effect at depths between 4-34 meters. A shot from a buried source generates a down going reflection due to the free surface boundary and, at some point, it interferes with the main wave propagation causing a reduction of wave amplitude at some frequency range (Source Ghost). Theoretical results and experimental results provided by the forward modeling are compared for concluding that the forward modeling is able to identify the frequency range affected by the source ghost. Nevertheless, it has been found that the receiver-source distance (offset) is a new variable that modifies the frequency range to make it unpredictable. A basic seismic processing technique, Normal Move-Out (NMO) correction, has been used for a single twenty fold CMP gather. The final stack shows that the processing technique neutralize the offset effect and therefore the forward modeling is still capable to determine the affected frequency range by the source ghost regardless the distance between receiver and source.

Multiphase Parallel Interleaved And Primary-Parallel Secondary-Series Forward Micro-Inverter Comparison.

Using multiphase technique is interesting in PV AC-module application due to light-load efficiency improvement by applying phase shedding, and the possibility of low-profile implementation. This paper presents a comparison, in terms of size and efficiency, of the parallel interleaved and the parallel-series connected multiphase configurations, as a function of the number of phases, for a forward micro-inverter operated in DCM. 8-phase prototypes of both multiphase configurations are built and compared between them and with the single phase forward micro-inverter, validating the presented analysis.

Laser induced forward transfer of silver pastes for printing of fingers in c-si cells.

The main objective of this work is to adapt the Laser Induced Forward Techniques (LIFT), a well- known laser direct writing technique for material transfer, to define metallic contacts (fingers and busbars) onto c-Si cells. The silver paste (with viscosity around 30-50 kcPs) is applied over a glass substrate using a coater. The thickness of the paste can be control changing the deposit parameters. The glass with the silver paste is set at a controlled gap over the c-Si cell. A solid state pulsed laser (532 nm) is focused at the glass/silver interface producing a droplet of silver that it is transferred to the c-Si cell. A scanner is used to print lines. The process parameters (silver paste thickness, gap and laser parameters -spot size, pulse energy and overlapping of pulses) are modified and the morphology of the lines is studied using confocal microscopy. Long lines are printed and the uniformity (in thickness and height) is studied. Some examples of metallization of larger areas (up to 10 cm x 10 cm) are presented.

On the circulation and the position of the forward stagnation point on airfoils

Lift and velocity circulation around airfoils are two aspects of the same phenomenon when airfoils are not stalled and the Kutta—Joukowski theorem applies. This theorem establishes a linear dependence between lift and circulation, which breaks when stalling occurs. As the angle of attack increases beyond this point, the circulation vanishes. Since the circulation determines to a great extent the position of the forward stagnation point on an airfoil, the measurement of this position is an easy and simple way to determine the circulation, which is of help in understanding the role of the latter in the generation of aerodynamic forces on airfoils.

Multiphase Design and Control Techniques Applied to a Forward Micro-Inverter

En la última década la potencia instalada de energía solar fotovoltaica ha crecido una media de un 49% anual y se espera que alcance el 16%del consumo energético mundial en el año 2050. La mayor parte de estas instalaciones se corresponden con sistemas conectados a la red eléctrica y un amplio porcentaje de ellas son instalaciones domésticas o en edificios. En el mercado ya existen diferentes arquitecturas para este tipo de instalaciones, entre las que se encuentras los módulos AC. Un módulo AC consiste en un inversor, también conocido como micro-inversor, que se monta en la parte trasera de un panel o módulo fotovoltaico. Esta tecnología ofrece modularidad, redundancia y la extracción de la máxima potencia de cada panel solar de la instalación. Además, la expansión de esta tecnología posibilitará una reducción de costes asociados a las economías de escala y a la posibilidad de que el propio usuario pueda componer su propio sistema. Sin embargo, el micro-inversor debe ser capaz de proporcionar una ganancia de tensión adecuada para conectar el panel solar directamente a la red, mientras mantiene un rendimiento aceptable en un amplio rango de potencias. Asimismo, los estándares de conexión a red deber ser satisfechos y el tamaño y el tiempo de vida del micro-inversor son factores que han de tenerse siempre en cuenta. En esta tesis se propone un micro-inversor derivado de la topología “forward” controlado en el límite entre los modos de conducción continuo y discontinuo (BCM por sus siglas en inglés). El transformador de la topología propuesta mantiene la misma estructura que en el convertidor “forward” clásico y la utilización de interruptores bidireccionales en el secundario permite la conexión directa del inversor a la red. Asimismo el método de control elegido permite obtener factor de potencia cercano a la unidad con una implementación sencilla. En la tesis se presenta el principio de funcionamiento y los principales aspectos del diseño del micro-inversor propuesto. Con la idea de mantener una solución sencilla y de bajo coste, se ha seleccionado un controlador analógico que está originalmente pensado para controlar un corrector del factor de potencia en el mismo modo de conducción que el micro-inversor “forward”. La tesis presenta las principales modificaciones necesarias, con especial atención a la detección del cruce por cero de la corriente (ZCD por sus siglas en inglés) y la compatibilidad del controlador con la inclusión de un algoritmo de búsqueda del punto de máxima potencia (MPPT por sus siglas en inglés). Los resultados experimentales muestran las limitaciones de la implementación elegida e identifican al transformador como el principal contribuyente a las pérdidas del micro-inversor. El principal objetivo de esta tesis es contribuir a la aplicación de técnicas de control y diseño de sistemas multifase en micro-inversores fotovoltaicos. En esta tesis se van a considerar dos configuraciones multifase diferentes aplicadas al micro-inversor “forward” propuesto. La primera consiste en una variación con conexión paralelo-serie que permite la utilización de transformadores con una relación de vueltas baja, y por tanto bien acoplados, para conseguir una ganancia de tensión adecuada con un mejor rendimiento. Esta configuración emplea el mismo control BCM cuando la potencia extraída del panel solar es máxima. Este método de control implica que la frecuencia de conmutación se incrementa considerablemente cuando la potencia decrece, lo que compromete el rendimiento. Por lo tanto y con la intención de mantener unos bueno niveles de rendimiento ponderado, el micro-inversor funciona en modo de conducción discontinuo (DCM, por sus siglas en inglés) cuando la potencia extraía del panel solar es menor que la máxima. La segunda configuración multifase considerada en esta tesis es la aplicación de la técnica de paralelo con entrelazado. Además se han considerado dos técnicas diferentes para decidir el número de fases activas: dependiendo de la potencia continua extraída del panel solar y dependiendo de la potencia instantánea demandada por el micro-inversor. La aplicación de estas técnicas es interesante en los sistemas fotovoltaicos conectados a la red eléctrica por la posibilidad que brindan de obtener un rendimiento prácticamente plano en un amplio rango de potencia. Las configuraciones con entrelazado se controlan en DCM para evitar la necesidad de un control de corriente, lo que es importante cuando el número de fases es alto. Los núcleos adecuados para todas las configuraciones multifase consideradas se seleccionan usando el producto de áreas. Una vez seleccionados los núcleos se ha realizado un diseño detallado de cada uno de los transformadores. Con la información obtenida de los diseños y los resultados de simulación, se puede analizar el impacto que el número de transformadores utilizados tiene en el tamaño y el rendimiento de las distintas configuraciones. Los resultados de este análisis, presentado en esta tesis, se utilizan posteriormente para comparar las distintas configuraciones. Muchas otras topologías se han presentado en la literatura para abordar los diferentes aspectos a considerar en los micro-inversores, que han sido presentados anteriormente. La mayoría de estas topologías utilizan un transformador de alta frecuencia para solventar el salto de tensión y evitar problemas de seguridad y de puesta a tierra. En cualquier caso, es interesante evaluar si topologías sin aislamiento galvánico son aptas para su utilización como micro-inversores. En esta tesis se presenta una revisión de inversores con capacidad de elevar tensión, que se comparan bajo las mismas especificaciones. El objetivo es proporcionar la información necesaria para valorar si estas topologías son aplicables en los módulos AC. Las principales contribuciones de esta tesis son: • La aplicación del control BCM a un convertidor “forward” para obtener un micro-inversor de una etapa sencillo y de bajo coste. • La modificación de dicho micro-inversor con conexión paralelo-series de transformadores que permite reducir la corriente de los semiconductores y una ganancia de tensión adecuada con transformadores altamente acoplados. • La aplicación de técnicas de entrelazado y decisión de apagado de fases en la puesta en paralelo del micro-inversor “forward”. • El análisis y la comparación del efecto en el tamaño y el rendimiento del incremento del número de transformadores en las diferentes configuraciones multifase. • La eliminación de las medidas y los lazos de control de corriente en las topologías multifase con la utilización del modo de conducción discontinuo y un algoritmo MPPT sin necesidad de medida de corriente. • La recopilación y comparación bajo las mismas especificaciones de topologías inversoras con capacidad de elevar tensión, que pueden ser adecuadas para la utilización como micro-inversores. Esta tesis está estructurada en seis capítulos. El capítulo 1 presenta el marco en que se desarrolla la tesis así como el alcance de la misma. En el capítulo 2 se recopilan las topologías existentes de micro-invesores con aislamiento y aquellas sin aislamiento cuya implementación en un módulo AC es factible. Asimismo se presenta la comparación entre estas topologías bajo las mismas especificaciones. El capítulo 3 se centra en el micro-inversor “forward” que se propone originalmente en esta tesis. La aplicación de las técnicas multifase se aborda en los capítulos 4 y 5, en los que se presentan los análisis en función del número de transformadores. El capítulo está orientado a la propuesta paralelo-serie mientras que la configuración con entrelazado se analiza en el capítulo 5. Por último, en el capítulo 6 se presentan las contribuciones de esta tesis y los trabajos futuros. ABSTRACT In the last decade the photovoltaic (PV) installed power increased with an average growth of 49% per year and it is expected to cover the 16% of the global electricity consumption by 2050. Most of the installed PV power corresponds to grid-connected systems, with a significant percentage of residential installations. In these PV systems, the inverter is essential since it is the responsible of transferring into the grid the extracted power from the PV modules. Several architectures have been proposed for grid-connected residential PV systems, including the AC-module technology. An AC-module consists of an inverter, also known as micro-inverter, which is attached to a PV module. The AC-module technology offers modularity, redundancy and individual MPPT of each module. In addition, the expansion of this technology will enable the possibility of economies of scale of mass market and “plug and play” for the user, thus reducing the overall cost of the installation. However, the micro-inverter must be able to provide the required voltage boost to interface a low voltage PV module to the grid while keeping an acceptable efficiency in a wide power range. Furthermore, the quality standards must be satisfied and size and lifetime of the solutions must be always considered. In this thesis a single-stage forward micro-inverter with boundary mode operation is proposed to address the micro-inverter requirements. The transformer in the proposed topology remains as in the classic forward converter and bidirectional switches in the secondary side allows direct connection to the grid. In addition the selected control strategy allows high power factor current with a simple implementation. The operation of the topology is presented and the main design issues are introduced. With the intention to propose a simple and low-cost solution, an analog controller for a PFC operated in boundary mode is utilized. The main necessary modifications are discussed, with the focus on the zero current detection (ZCD) and the compatibility of the controller with a MPPT algorithm. The experimental results show the limitations of the selected analog controller implementation and the transformer is identified as a main losses contributor. The main objective of this thesis is to contribute in the application of control and design multiphase techniques to the PV micro-inverters. Two different multiphase configurations have been applied to the forward micro-inverter proposed in this thesis. The first one consists of a parallel-series connected variation which enables the use of low turns ratio, i.e. well coupled, transformers to achieve a proper voltage boost with an improved performance. This multiphase configuration implements BCM control at maximum load however. With this control method the switching frequency increases significantly for light load operation, thus jeopardizing the efficiency. Therefore, in order to keep acceptable weighted efficiency levels, DCM operation is selected for low power conditions. The second multiphase variation considered in this thesis is the interleaved configuration with two different phase shedding techniques: depending on the DC power extracted from the PV panel, and depending on the demanded instantaneous power. The application of interleaving techniques is interesting in PV grid-connected inverters for the possibility of flat efficiency behavior in a wide power range. The interleaved variations of the proposed forward micro-inverter are operated in DCM to avoid the current loop, which is important when the number of phases is large. The adequate transformer cores for all the multiphase configurations are selected according to the area product parameter and a detailed design of each required transformer is developed. With this information and simulation results, the impact in size and efficiency of the number of transformer used can be assessed. The considered multiphase topologies are compared in this thesis according to the results of the introduced analysis. Several other topological solutions have been proposed to solve the mentioned concerns in AC-module application. The most of these solutions use a high frequency transformer to boost the voltage and avoid grounding and safety issues. However, it is of interest to assess if the non-isolated topologies are suitable for AC-module application. In this thesis a review of transformerless step-up inverters is presented. The compiled topologies are compared using a set benchmark to provide the necessary information to assess whether non-isolated topologies are suitable for AC-module application. The main contributions of this thesis are: • The application of the boundary mode control with constant off-time to a forward converter, to obtain a simple and low-cost single-stage forward micro-inverter. • A modification of the forward micro-inverter with primary-parallel secondary-series connected transformers to reduce the current stress and improve the voltage gain with highly coupled transformers. •The application of the interleaved configuration with different phase shedding strategies to the proposed forward micro-inverter. • An analysis and comparison of the influence in size and efficiency of increasing the number of transformers in the parallel-series and interleaved multiphase configurations. • Elimination of the current loop and current measurements in the multiphase topologies by adopting DCM operation and a current sensorless MPPT. • A compilation and comparison with the same specifications of suitable non-isolated step-up inverters. This thesis is organized in six chapters. In Chapter 1 the background of single-phase PV-connected systems is discussed and the scope of the thesis is defined. Chapter 2 compiles the existing solutions for isolated micro-inverters and transformerless step-up inverters suitable for AC-module application. In addition, the most convenient non-isolated inverters are compared using a defined benchmark. Chapter 3 focuses on the originally proposed single-stage forward micro-inverter. The application of multiphase techniques is addressed in Chapter 4 and Chapter 5, and the impact in different parameters of increasing the number of phases is analyzed. In Chapter 4 an original primary-parallel secondary-series variation of the forward micro-inverter is presented, while Chapter 5 focuses on the application of the interleaved configuration. Finally, Chapter 6 discusses the contributions of the thesis and the future work.

Grid-Connected Forward Microinverter With Primary-Parallel Secondary-Series Transformer

This paper presents a primary-parallel secondaryseries multicore forward microinverter for photovoltaic ac-module application. The presented microinverter operates with a constant off-time boundary mode control, providing MPPT capability and unity power factor. The proposed multitransformer solution allows using low-profile unitary turns ratio transformers. Therefore, the transformers are better coupled and the overall performance of the microinverter is improved. Due to the multiphase solution, the number of devices increases but the current stress and losses per device are reduced contributing to an easier thermal management. Furthermore, the decoupling capacitor is split among the phases, contributing to a low-profile solution without electrolytic capacitors suitable to be mounted in the frame of a PV module. The proposed solution is compared to the classical parallel-interleaved approach, showing better efficiency in a wide power range and improving the weighted efficiency.

Del puzzle a la unidad: la UPM y Rafael Portaencasa

En estas palabras, escritas por José Antonio Martín Pereda, e incluidas en una sesión de homenaje al difunto D. Rafael Portaencasa celebrada por la Real Academia de Ingeniería, el autor recuerda cómo era Portaencasa, en qué situación encontró la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid cuando empezó su mandato como Rector y cuáles fueron sus mayores logros.