Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

Governance of Massive Multiauthor Collaboration – Linux, Wikipedia, and Other Networks: Governed by Bilateral Contracts, Partnerships, or Something in Between?

Open collaborative projects are moving to the foreground of knowledge production. Some online user communities develop into longterm projects that generate a highly valuable and at the same time freely accessible output. Traditional copyright law that is organized around the idea of a single creative entity is not well equipped to accommodate the needs of these forms of collaboration. In order to enable a peculiar network-type of interaction participants instead draw on public licensing models that determine the freedoms to use individual contributions. With the help of these access rules the operational logic of the project can be implemented successfully. However, as the case of the Wikipedia GFDL-CC license transition demonstrates, the adaptation of access rules in networks to new circumstances raises collective action problems and suffers from pitfalls caused by the fact that public licensing is grounded in individual copyright. Legal governance of open collaboration projects is a largely unexplored field. The article argues that the license steward of a public license assumes the position of a fiduciary of the knowledge commons generated under the license regime. Ultimately, the governance of decentralized networks translates into a composite of organizational and contractual elements. It is concluded that the production of global knowledge commons relies on rules of transnational private law.

In Case of Emergency: Implementing Disaster Clauses in Publisher Contracts

Joanne Romano, Licensing and Serials Librarian for The Texas Medical Center Library, presented “In Case of Emergency--Implementing Disaster Clauses in Publisher Contracts” to the National Network of Libraries of Medicine/Southeastern/Atlantic Region’s Emergency Response and Preparedness Advisory Committee, (NN/LM-SE/A ERAC) on November 17, 2010, in St. Petersburg, FLA at the Marriott Vinoy Renaissance Resort. Included were slides of the devastation after the 8.8 magnitude earthquake in the Maule region of Chile, how The TMC Library assisted, lessons learned, and advice for how to include disaster clauses in publisher licenses. The NN/LM-SE/A ERAC group invited Ms. Romano to present at their bi-meeting after learning of her library’s key role from other NLM officers. As a result, Ms. Romano was then invited as a guest speaker on for NN/LM-SE/A region’s annual webinar, “Beyond the Sea”, which also included speakers from John Wiley & Sons, Inc., the publisher who worked with The TMC Library in providing emergency access to researchers at the University de Talca, Talca, Chile.