Análise crítica dos planos e ações de controle e combate a erosões: Estudo de caso da bacia hidrográfica do TURVO/GRANDE

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Civil - FEIS

Climate change and challenges for tourism in Central America

Incluye Bibliografía

An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the health sector in the Caribbean

Climate change affects the fundamental bases of good human health, which are clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food, and secure shelter. Climate change is known to impact health through three climate dimensions: extreme heat, natural disasters, and infections and diseases. The temporal and spatial climatic changes that will affect the biology and ecology of vectors and intermediate hosts are likely to increase the risks of disease transmission. The greatest effect of climate change on disease transmission is likely to be observed at the extremes of the range of temperatures at which transmission typically occurs. Caribbean countries are marked by unique geographical and geological features. When combined with their physical, infrastructural development, these features make them relatively more prone to negative impacts from changes in climatic conditions. The increased variability of climate associated with slow-moving tropical depressions has implications for water quality through flooding as well as hurricanes. Caribbean countries often have problems with water and sanitation. These problems are exacerbated whenever there is excess rainfall, or no rainfall. The current report aims to prepare the Caribbean to respond better to the anticipated impact of climate change on the health sector, while fostering a subregional Caribbean approach to reducing carbon emissions by 2050. It provides a major advance on the analytical and contextual issues surrounding the impact of climate change on health in the Caribbean by focusing on the vector-borne and waterborne diseases that are anticipated to be impacted directly by climate change. The ultimate goal is to quantify both the direct and indirect costs associated with each disease, and to present adaptation strategies that can address these health concerns effectively to benefit the populations of the Caribbean.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Trinidad And Tobago

The economic impact of climate change on root crop, fisheries and vegetable production for Trinidad and Tobago under the A2 and B2 scenarios were modeled, relative to a baseline ―no climate change‖ case, where the mean temperature and rainfall for a base period of 1980 – 2000 was assumed for the years up to 2050. Production functions were used, using ARMA specifications to correct for serial autocorrelation. For the A2 scenarios, rainfall is expected to fall by approximately 10% relative to the baseline case in the 2020s, but is expected to rise thereafter, until by the 2040s rainfall rises slightly above the mean for the baseline case. For the B2 scenario, rainfall rose slightly above the mean for the baseline case in the current decade, but falls steadily thereafter to approximately 15% by the 2040s. Over the same period, temperature is expected to increase by 1.34C and 1.37C under A2 and B2 respectively. It is expected that any further increase in rainfall should have a deleterious effect on root crop production as a whole, since the above mentioned crops represent the majority of the root crops included in the study. Further expected increases in temperature will result in the ambient temperature being very close to the optimal end of the range for most of these crops. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative losses (2008$) for root crops is expected to be approximately 248.8 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 239.4 million USD under the B2 scenario. Relative to the 2005 catch for fish, there will be a decrease in catch potential of 10 - 20% by 2050 relative to 2005 catch potentials, other things remaining constant. By 2050 under the A2 and B2 scenarios, losses in real terms were estimated to be 160.2 million USD and 80.1 million USD respectively, at a 1% discount rate. For vegetables, the mean rainfall exceeds the optimal rainfall range for sweet peppers, hot peppers and melongene. However, while the optimal rainfall level for tomatoes is 3000mm/yr, other vegetables such as sweet peppers, hot peppers and ochroes have very low rainfall requirements (as low as 300 mm/yr). Therefore it is expected that any further decrease in rainfall should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production. It is expected that any further increase in temperature should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production, though model results indicated that as a group, an increase in temperature should have a positive impact on vegetable production. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative gains (2008$) for vegetables is expected to be approximately 54.9 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 49.1 million USD under the B2 scenario, given a 1% discount rate. For root crops, fisheries and vegetables combined, the cumulative loss under A2 is calculated as approximately 352.8 million USD and approximately 270.8 million USD under B2 by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively by 2050. Sea Level Rise (SLR) by 2050 is estimated to be 0.255 m under A2 and 0.215 m under B2. GIS estimation indicated that for a 0.255 m sea level rise, combined with a 0.5 m high tide, there would be no permanent inundation of agricultural land in Trinidad. The total inundation area is 1.18 km2. This occurs only in the Caroni Watershed, on the western coast of Trinidad, and the areas are outside the Caroni Swamp. Even with an additional rise of 0.5 m to simulate a high rainfall event, the estimated inundated area is 4.67 km2, but with no permanent inundation, though likely to be subject to flooding. Based on eleven (11) evaluation criteria, the top potential adaptation options were identified: 1. Use of water saving irrigation systems and water management systems e.g. drip irrigation; 2. Mainstream climate change issues into agricultural management; 3. Repair/maintain existing dams; 4. Alter crop calendar for short-term crops; 5. Adopt improved technologies for soil conservation; 6. Establish systems of food storage; 7. Promote water conservation – install on-farm water harvesting off roof tops; 8. Design and implement holistic water management plans for all competing uses; 9. Build on- farm water storage (ponds and tanks); 10. Agricultural drainage; and 11. Installation of greenhouses. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the Benefit-Cost Ratio are: (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Water Harvesting. However, the options with the highest net benefits are, (in order of priority): (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Use of drip irrigation. Based on the area burnt in Trinidad and Tobago between 2005 and 2009, the average annual loss due to fires is 1717.3 ha. At US$17.41 per carbon credit, this implies that for the total land lost to forest fires on average each year, the opportunity cost of carbon credit revenue is 74.3 million USD. If a teak reforestation programme is undertaken in Trinidad and Tobago, the net benefit of reforestation under a carbon credit programme would be 69 million USD cumulatively to 2050.

The economics of climate change

This paper focuses on several key economic issues relevant to climate change. Given the fact that changes in climate are projections using the best available data, it examines the economic principles of uncertainty and the precautionary approach, and then continues to address the key drivers of climate change. Climate change is expected to result in negative impacts and, in this regard, the consequences of anticipated rising temperatures and sea levels as well as changes in precipitation that may result in flooding and/or drought are addressed. However, the situation is not all negative and, as such, the opportunities that are likely to arise through adaptation and mitigation are discussed especially with respect to the Caribbean. In this regard and recognizing that it would be useful to Caribbean policymakers to utilize these opportunities and to address the negative impacts, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), through its subregional headquarters for the Caribbean, is spearheading a review of the economics of climate change in the Caribbean with a view to providing quantitative information to stakeholders in dealing with climate change. The paper makes recommendations for the Caribbean to address climate change at the national level. These include macroplanning; promotion of energy efficiency; creation of incentives to obtain support for implementation of alternative energy technologies; maintaining the will among stakeholders on a sustained basis for addressing climate change; and the conduct of relevant research into varieties of plants and animals that could adapt to changing climatic conditions. Finally, it must be recognized that to successfully combat climate change, the threats and opportunities must be properly assessed as part of an ongoing region-wide system of risk management, which should not be incidental, but integral, to national and regional planning and forecasting for the future.

Estrutura trófica da comunidade de peixes de riachos da bacia do rio Itanhaém, litoral sul do estado de São Paulo, Brasil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Atividade amilolítica e qualidade de sementes de milho (Zea mays L.) submetidas ao alagamento

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Agricultura) - FCA

Produção, análise econômica e sustentabilidade da rizicarcinicultura no Estado de São Paulo

Pós-graduação em Aquicultura - FCAV

Ecofisiologia da germinação de sementes e de plantas de Styracaceae em diferentes fisionomias de cerrado

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Análise da valoração climática na perspectiva da Economia Ambiental: possibilidades e limitações

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Aspectos pedológicos relacionados à irrigação em tabuleiros costeiros (Platô de Neópolis-SE)

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Evolução geomorfológica e mudanças ambientais no megaleque do Nabileque, quaternário do Pantanal mato-grossense

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Geomorfologia do megaleque do Rio Paraguai, quaternário do pantanal mato-grossense, centro-oeste do Brasil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Avaliação da vulnerabilidade natural à contaminação do solo e aqüífero do reservatório Batatã - São Luís (MA)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Agrobiodivesificacion de playas y barreales y su función en la economia familiar ribereña de la Amazônia Peruana

La agrobiodiversidad presente en playas y barreales de la Amazonía Peruana fue estudiada en Muyuy, sector ubicado a tres horas de la ciudad de Iquitos, capital de La Región Loreto. El objetivo de trabajo fue orientado a medir la agrobiodiversidad en estos ambientes dinámicos y su contribución en la economía familiar ribereña. Primeramente, vemos que la actividad agrícola practicada en playas y barreales se da a través de un rol de producción con cultivos de corto periodo vegetativo (arroz, caupí, maní, etc.); esto para disminuir el riesgo provocado por los repiquetes o el nuevo ciclo anual de inundación. Datos levantados en las campañas agrícolas de 1999 y 2004, permiten identificar el establecimiento de 9 y 2 cultivos respectivamente, esta variación se debe al diferente comportamiento de inundación; variación que a la vez influencia la formación de diferentes ambientes como playas y barreales: altos, medios, y bajos. A continuación, vemos que el ambiente de barreal óptimo para la producción de arroz, fue promocionado con créditos agrícolas - 2004; esto implicó consecuentemente la incursión de variedades certificadas o tardías (Inti, Ecoarroz, Jar, Capirona, y Amor 107), sensibles a una inundabilidad rápida como la sucedida en la campaña agrícola 2004. Los resultados muestran que las comunidades SPC, ODN, TPZ, CON y DDM beneficiadas con los créditos y afectadas por la inundabilidad, consiguieron rescatar hasta un 10% de la producción esperada del arroz; aquí, también se encuentran casos de agricultores de las comunidades DDM y MAZ empleando variedades precoces no promocionadas como el Milagrito, consiguiendo rescatar de 50 a 60 % de la producción. Los agricultores que establecieron caupí en playas consiguieron aprovechar aproximadamente 10% de la producción esperada. La inundación que afectó los cultivos cerca al periodo de cosecha creó ambientes propicios para la alimentación y protección de algunas especies de peces y tortugas, esto a la vez aumentó los factores o recursos de aprovechamiento para los agricultores; aquí, se ejecutó la labor de pesca tanto para el consumo general y la comercialización por parte de algunos casos encontrados en las comunidades estudiadas, el más representativo como la familia 11 muestra que a partir de esta labor de pesca consiguió el 2.9% de recuperación en base al cálculo rentable de los cultivos establecidos; y de la captura de tortugas el 3.1%. Se concluye que los cultivos perdidos por inundabilidad pueden ser recuperados en porcentajes más significativos, si se usara manejos adecuados sin alterar los ambientes de producción como ocurre con la aplicación de agroquímicos.