A model to forecast financial failure, in non financial galician SMES

We are concerned with providing more empirical evidence on forecast failure, developing forecast models, and examining the impact of events such as audit reports. A joint consideration of classic financial ratios and relevant external indicators leads us to build a basic prediction model focused in non-financial Galician SMEs. Explanatory variables are relevant financial indicators from the viewpoint of the financial logic and financial failure theory. The paper explores three mathematical models: discriminant analysis, Logit, and linear multivariate regression. We conclude that, even though they both offer high explanatory and predictive abilities, Logit and MDA models should be used and interpreted jointly.

Malaria transmission model for different levels of acquired immunity and temperature-dependent parameters (vector)

OBJECTIVE: Describe the overall transmission of malaria through a compartmental model, considering the human host and mosquito vector. METHODS: A mathematical model was developed based on the following parameters: human host immunity, assuming the existence of acquired immunity and immunological memory, which boosts the protective response upon reinfection; mosquito vector, taking into account that the average period of development from egg to adult mosquito and the extrinsic incubation period of parasites (transformation of infected but non-infectious mosquitoes into infectious mosquitoes) are dependent on the ambient temperature. RESULTS: The steady state equilibrium values obtained with the model allowed the calculation of the basic reproduction ratio in terms of the model's parameters. CONCLUSIONS: The model allowed the calculation of the basic reproduction ratio, one of the most important epidemiological variables.

Virtual communities of practice: investigating motivations and constraints in the processes of knowledge creation and transfer

With accelerated market volatility, faster response times and increased globalization, business environments are going through a major transformation and firms have intensified their search for strategies which can give them competitive advantage. This requires that companies continuously innovate, to think of new ideas that can be transformed or implemented as products, processes or services, generating value for the firm. Innovative solutions and processes are usually developed by a group of people, working together. A grouping of people that share and create new knowledge can be considered as a Community of Practice (CoP). CoP’s are places which provide a sound basis for organizational learning and encourage knowledge creation and acquisition. Virtual Communities of Practice (VCoP's) can perform a central role in promoting communication and collaboration between members who are dispersed in both time and space. Nevertheless, it is known that not all CoP's and VCoP's share the same levels of performance or produce the same results. This means that there are factors that enable or constrain the process of knowledge creation. With this in mind, we developed a case study in order to identify both the motivations and the constraints that members of an organization experience when taking part in the knowledge creating processes of VCoP's. Results show that organizational culture and professional and personal development play an important role in these processes. No interviewee referred to direct financial rewards as a motivation factor for participation in VCoPs. Most identified the difficulty in aligning objectives established by the management with justification for the time spent in the VCoP. The interviewees also said that technology is not a constraint.

Virtual communities of practice: examining the motivations and constraints in their knowledge creation and knowledge transfer preocesses

Paper accepted for the OKLC 2009 - International Conference on Organizational Learning, Knowledge and Capabilities (26-28th, April 2009, Amsterdam, the Netherlands).

Dynamic power- and failure-aware cloud resources allocation for Sets of independent tasks

Cloud computing is increasingly being adopted in different scenarios, like social networking, business applications, scientific experiments, etc. Relying in virtualization technology, the construction of these computing environments targets improvements in the infrastructure, such as power-efficiency and fulfillment of users’ SLA specifications. The methodology usually applied is packing all the virtual machines on the proper physical servers. However, failure occurrences in these networked computing systems can induce substantial negative impact on system performance, deviating the system from ours initial objectives. In this work, we propose adapted algorithms to dynamically map virtual machines to physical hosts, in order to improve cloud infrastructure power-efficiency, with low impact on users’ required performance. Our decision making algorithms leverage proactive fault-tolerance techniques to deal with systems failures, allied with virtual machine technology to share nodes resources in an accurately and controlled manner. The results indicate that our algorithms perform better targeting power-efficiency and SLA fulfillment, in face of cloud infrastructure failures.

Study of the one dimensional and transient bioheat transfer equation: Multi-layer solution development and applications

: In this work we derive an analytical solution given by Bessel series to the transient and one-dimensional (1D) bioheat transfer equation in a multi-layer region with spatially dependent heat sources. Each region represents an independent biological tissue characterized by temperature-invariant physiological parameters and a linearly temperature dependent metabolic heat generation. Moreover, 1D Cartesian, cylindrical or spherical coordinates are used to define the geometry and temperature boundary conditions of first, second and third kinds are assumed at the inner and outer surfaces. We present two examples of clinical applications for the developed solution. In the first one, we investigate two different heat source terms to simulate the heating in a tumor and its surrounding tissue, induced during a magnetic fluid hyperthermia technique used for cancer treatment. To obtain an accurate analytical solution, we determine the error associated with the truncated Bessel series that defines the transient solution. In the second application, we explore the potential of this model to study the effect of different environmental conditions in a multi-layered human head model (brain, bone and scalp). The convective heat transfer effect of a large blood vessel located inside the brain is also investigated. The results are further compared with a numerical solution obtained by the Finite Element Method and computed with COMSOL Multi-physics v4.1 (c). (c) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estratégias e internacionalização na manutenção e produção

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

Credibilidade e reputação em agentes inteligentes. Aplicação ao comércio electrónico

Desde o seu aparecimento, a Internet teve um desenvolvimento e uma taxa de crescimento quase exponencial. Os mercados de comércio electrónico têm vindo a acompanhar esta tendência de crescimento, tornando-se cada vez mais comuns e populares entre comerciantes ou compradores/vendedores de ocasião. A par deste crescimento também foi aumentando a complexidade e sofisticação dos sistemas responsáveis por promover os diferentes mercados. No seguimento desta evolução surgiram os Agentes Inteligentes devido à sua capacidade de encontrar e escolher, de uma forma relativamente eficiente, o melhor negócio, tendo por base as propostas e restrições existentes. Desde a primeira aplicação dos Agentes Inteligentes aos mercados de comércio electrónico que os investigadores desta área, têm tentado sempre auto-superar-se arranjando modelos de Agentes Inteligentes melhores e mais eficientes. Uma das técnicas usadas, para a tentativa de obtenção deste objectivo, é a transferência dos comportamentos Humanos, no que toca a negociação e decisão, para estes mesmos Agentes Inteligentes. O objectivo desta dissertação é averiguar se os Modelos de Avaliação de Credibilidade e Reputação são uma adição útil ao processo de negociação dos Agente Inteligentes. O objectivo geral dos modelos deste tipo é minimizar as situações de fraude ou incumprimento sistemático dos acordos realizados aquando do processo de negociação. Neste contexto, foi proposto um Modelo de Avaliação de Credibilidade e Reputação aplicável aos mercados de comércio electrónico actuais e que consigam dar uma resposta adequada o seu elevado nível de exigência. Além deste modelo proposto também foi desenvolvido um simulador Multi-Agente com a capacidade de simular vários cenários e permitir, desta forma, comprovar a aplicabilidade do modelo proposto. Por último, foram realizadas várias experiências sobre o simulador desenvolvido, de forma a ser possível retirar algumas conclusões para o presente trabalho. Sendo a conclusão mais importante a verificação/validação de que a utilização de mecanismos de credibilidade e reputação são uma mais-valia para os mercado de comércio electrónico.

Seasonal variation in hospitalizations due to heart failure in Niterói city, Southeastern Brazil

The objective of the study was to describe seasonality of hospitalizations for heart failure in tropical climate as it has been described in cold climates. Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving-Average model was applied to time-series data of heart failure hospitalizations between 1996 and 2004 in Niteroi (Southeastern Brazil), collected from the Brazilian National Health Service Database. The standard seasonal variation was obtained by means of moving-average filtering and averaging data. The lowest and the highest annual hospital admissions were 507 (1997) and 849 (2002), respectively; the lowest and the highest monthly rates were 419 (December) and 681 (October), respectively. Peak admission rates were seen during the fall and winter. Although weak, the seasonality observed indicates that slight variations result in increased hospitalizations for heart failure.

Happiness, hope, and affection as predictors of quality of life and functionality of individuals with heart failure at three-month follow-up

The scientific evidence supporting the management of the chronically ill in a positive psychological perspective in opposition to traditional pathological approach is scarce. This study examines issues associated with recovery of health status in heart failure, in particular hope, affection, and happiness. We use a longitudinal study of 128 symptomatic patients who after medical intervention reported improved quality of life and function at 3-month follow-up. We evaluated the contribution of happiness, hope and affection, individually and as a whole, in the quality of life and functionality of individuals with heart failure. Happiness (Subjective Happiness Scale), Hope (HOPE Scale), and affection (PANAS (positive and negative affect schedule)) were determined before medical intervention. Individually, we found that happiness is correlated with the quality of life and functionality, hope to self-efficacy dimension of the quality of life scale, positive affect to functionality and negative affect with symptoms dimension, quality of life dimension, and overall sum of the quality of life scale. Overall, we found that happiness has a unique contribution to the quality of life, except in self-efficacy dimension where hope takes this contribution and positive affect has a unique contribution to the functionality in this short-term follow-up. The results highlight the importance of positive variables to health outcomes for people with heart failure and should be considered in intervention programs for this syndrome.

Modelling and aerodynamic simulation of a vehicle and failure analysis of a laminated front fender

Master Thesis in Mechanical Engineering field of Maintenance and Production

Exporting "failure": why research from rich countries may not benefit the developing world

The '10/90 gap' was first highlighted by the Global Forum for Health Research. It refers to the finding that 90% of worldwide medical research expenditure is targeted at problems affecting only 10% of the world's population. Applying research results from the rich world to the problems of the poor may be a tempting, potentially easy and convenient solution for this gap. This paper had the objective of presenting arguments that such an approach runs the risk of exporting failure. Health interventions that are shown to be effective in the specific context of a Western industrialized setting will not necessarily work in the developing world.

The predominance of M2-polarized macrophages in the stroma of low-hypoxic bladder tumors is associated with BCG immunotherapy failure

OBJECTIVE: Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) immunotherapy is the gold standard treatment for superficial bladder tumors with intermediate/high risk of recurrence or progression. However, approximately 30% of patients fail to respond to the treatment. Effective BCG therapy needs precise activation of the type 1 helper cells immune pathway. Tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) often assume an immunoregulatory M2 phenotype and may directly interfere with the BCG-induced antitumor immune response. Thus, we aim to clarify the influence of TAMs, in particular of the M2 phenotype in stroma and tumor areas, in BCG treatment outcome. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study included 99 patients with bladder cancer treated with BCG. Tumors resected before treatment were evaluated using immunohistochemistry for CD68 and CD163 antigens, which identify a lineage macrophage marker and a M2-polarized specific cell surface receptor, respectively. CD68+ and CD163+ macrophages were evaluated within the stroma and tumor areas, and high density of infiltrating cells spots were selected for counting. Hypoxia, an event known to modulate macrophage phenotype, was also assessed through hypoxia induced factor (HIF)-1α expression. RESULTS: Patients in whom BCG failed had high stroma-predominant CD163+ macrophage counts (high stroma but low tumor CD163+ macrophages counts) when compared with the ones with a successful treatment (71% vs. 47%, P = 0.017). Furthermore, patients presenting this phenotype showed decreased recurrence-free survival (log rank, P = 0.008) and a clear 2-fold increased risk of BCG treatment failure was observed in univariate analysis (hazard ratio = 2.343; 95% CI: 1.197-4.587; P = 0.013). Even when adjusted for potential confounders, such as age and therapeutic scheme, multivariate analysis revealed 2.6-fold increased risk of recurrence (hazard ratio = 2.627; 95% CI: 1.340-5.150; P = 0.005). High stroma-predominant CD163+ macrophage counts were also associated with low expression of HIF-1α in tumor areas, whereas high counts of CD163+ in the tumor presented high expression of HIF-1α in tumor nests. CONCLUSIONS: TAMs evaluation using CD163 is a good indicator of BCG treatment failure. Moreover, elevated infiltration of CD163+ macrophages, predominantly in stroma areas but not in the tumor, may be a useful indicator of BCG treatment outcome, possibly owing to its immunosuppressive phenotype.

Heat transfer coefficients from Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluids flowing in laminar regime in a helical coil

This study aimed to carry out experimental work to obtain, for Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluids, heat transfer coefficients, at constant wall temperature as boundary condition, in fully developed laminar flow inside a helical coil. The Newtonian fluids studied were aqueous solutions of glycerol, 25%, 36%, 43%, 59% and 78% (w/w) and the non-Newtonian fluids aqueous solutions of carboxymethylcellulose (CMC), a polymer, with concentrations 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4% and 0.6% (w/w) and aqueous solutions of xanthan gum (XG), another polymer, with concentrations 0.1% and 0.2% (w/w). According to the rheological study performed, the polymer solutions had shear thinning behavior and different values of elasticity. The helical coil used has internal diameter, curvature ratio, length and pitch, respectively: 0.004575 m, 0.0263, 5.0 m and 11.34 mm. The Nusselt numbers for the CMC solutions are, on average, slightly higher than those for Newtonian fluids, for identical Prandtl and generalized Dean numbers. As outcome, the viscous component of the shear thinning polymer tends to potentiate the mixing effect of the Dean cells. The Nusselt numbers of the XG solutions are significant lower than those of the Newtonian solutions, for identical Prandtl and generalized Dean numbers. Therefore, the elastic component of the polymer tends to diminish the mixing effect of the Dean cells. A global correlation, for Nusselt number as a function of Péclet, generalized Dean and Weissenberg numbers for all Newtonian and non-Newtonian solutions studied, is presented.

Electrochemical studies on small electron transfer proteins using membrane electrodes

Journal of Electroanalytical Chemistry 541 (2003) 153-162