NICaN Regional Supportive & Palliative Care Network

NICaN Regional Supportive & Palliative Care Network Friday 30th May 2008 Lecture Theatre, Fern House Antrim 2.00 pm - 5.00 pm Welcome, Introductions Stuart MacDonnell, Chair of the Supportive and Palliative Care network welcomed everyone to the meeting. This meeting had been rescheduled to accommodate the validation workshop for the regional palliative care model, which took place on Friday,18th April. Acknowledging the full agenda, several items were pulled forward to accommodate speakers SPC_0809_03 Modernisation and Reform of Supportive and Palliative care Mr MacDonnell welcomed Dr Sonja McIlfatrick and Dr Donna Fitzimons, members of the Phase 1 Project Team for the Modernisation and Reform of palliative care. Their presentation highlighted the journey taken by the Project Team since January 2008 - May 2008. Seeking to deliver the network vision, for any person with palliative care need, cancer or non - cancer, the project team incorporated several methodologies. The literature review identified best practice. An assessment of need including epidemiological data and review of service provision. Consultation reflected the engagement with patients, carers and professional forums, primary care and non-malignant focus groups. The breadth of consultation confirmed the evidence for the identified components of the model. These were validated at the April workshop. External review of the work was provided by Dr Phil Larkin (Galway Uni) Prof David Clark (End of Life Care Observatory, Lancaster University) and Mr Bob Neillans (Chair of the Mid Trent Palliative care network, which has been involved in the Delivering choice programme within Lincolnshire). The Guiding Principles of the model reinforced Patient and family centred care, enhanced community provision and supported by specialists. The components of the model are · Identification of patient with Palliative careened · Holistic Assessment · Integration of services · Coordination of care · End of Life Care and Bereavement Care The consultation process also highlighted the need for Increased Public and Professional Awareness. This was recognised as an encompassing component. Underpinning the model is the need for robust Education and common core values e.g. dignity, choice, advocacy, empowerment, partnership working. Stuart MacDonnell, who also chaired the steering group during the project, congratulated the Project Team for delivering the comprehensive document on schedule. The Report has been submitted to the NICaN Board and the DHSSPSNI. In addition, an outline for Phase 2 of this work has been submitted. Mr MacDonnell recognised that there is real opportunity for palliative care to benefit from the DHSSPSNI commitment to concrete developments. Phase 2 will progress the current high-level components of the model into quality services developments at a local level, demonstrating integration throughout. The methods propose continued engagement with the Delivering Choice Programme enabled through a Central and also Local Teams. The report and the Appendices care available on the NICaN website www.nican@n-i.nhs.uk SPC_0809_01 Chairman's Business · Update on the Cancer Service Framework, the document has been submitted and presented to the Departmental Programme Board. Next stages will include the review of costs and development of a implementation guidance It is hoped that the completed document should be available for public consultation in Autumn 2008. with a launch of the framework document and accompanying implementation guide in Spring 2009. Some funding has already been identified to advance key areas of work including, Advanced communication skills training, peer review and an appointment of a post to develop the cancerni.net, focusing on children and e-learning tools. · Children's and Adolescent Cancer network group , Liz Henderson is to convene a group to consider how this is to be taken forward. · NICaN appointments Recognition was given to the significant contribution made by Dr Gerard Daly during his position as NICaN Lead Clinician, particularly throughout the early establishment of the NICaN. Dr Dermott Hughes (Western Trust) has been appointed as the NICaN Medical Director. The Primary Care Director post has been advertised and it is hoped that the Director of Network will be advertised later in Summer. Endorsement of End of Life care paper. The Paper was presented and endorsed at the March 2008 NICaN Board meeting. Mr David Galloway (Director of Secondary Care) emphasised the need for this important work to be recognised within the regional model to ensure that it is reflected in future models of service delivery Congratulations were again echoed to the Chair of the End of Life Group for this work, Dr Glynis Henry, and the working group Other recognition Mr MacDonnell congratulated the significant achievements across the network. These include: · Dr Francis Robinson (Consultant Palliative Medicine, Western Trust) Awarded - Consultant of the year at the NI Health Care awards. · Mrs Evelyn Whittaker Hospice Nurse Specialist, NI Hospice, Joint Second Prize in the Development award within the International Journal of Palliative Nursing Awards, for her work in development of palliative care education in nursing homes. · Mr Ray Elder is the newly appointed Team Leader of Community Palliative care, SE Trust. · Mrs Bridget Denvir, who managed the establishment of one of the first community multiprofessional palliative care teams is moving to work with establishing integrated teams within the Belfast Trust. Bridget has been an active core member of the network and here contribution has been much appreciated. Mrs Sharon Barr will attend in future. SPC_0809_02 Minutes & matters Arising from Meeting, 13th December 2007 No amendments were made to the draft minutes from the December meeting. These will be posted on the NICaN website for future reference. Palliative Care Research Following consultation, the response to the business case for the All Ireland Institute was forwarded on 22 February 2008 to Prof David Clark. Prof Judith Hill informed the group that terms of tender are now being developed. Awareness raising across academic institutions continues to engage interest in potential partnerships. Atlantic Philantrophies have offered financial support to the venture and match funding is being sought from across jurisdictions. Previous discussions at Network meetings have endorsed the need to establish a work strand for research and development within palliative and end of life care. To identify the body of interested parties and explore the strengths and weaknesses of a collaborative model for research, a workshop, - Building collaboration for Palliative and End of life Care Research -will take place on 4 June 10am - 2pm.in the Comfort Hotel.Antrim, The workshop will be chaired by Prof David Clark, Director of the International Observatory on End of Life Care. Prof Shelia Payne, Help the Hospices Chair in Hospice Studies and co director of the Cancer Experiences Collaborative will present the Experiences and Results from Research Collaborative. Feedback from this event will be brought back to the next meeting in September. SPC_0809_04 Patient Information pathways - a pathway for advanced disease Ms Danny Sinclair, NICaN Regional Coordinator for Patient Information informed the network of how patient information pathways have been developed in line with the Cancer Services Collaborative. Emerging themes, with regard to information needs of patients with advanced disease, are being identified from the work undertaken across the tumour groups. It is important to identify all information needs to develop a generic pathway of information resources for advanced disease to be endorsed by the Supportive and Palliative care network. This could be used across the all tumour specific information pathways and across organisational boundaries. The resulting pathway could potentially be used for non- cancer condition. A group is to be established to take this work forward. The group will: · Develop a list of advanced disease information themes · .Identify when they become relevant for the patient or their carer · .Identify existing resources · .Develop resources where needed · .Participate or nominate when review is required Dr Sheila Kelly nominated Helen Hume (SETrust) Paula Kealey will also contribute to this work; a nomination from the Patient and Public Information Forum has also been identified. A date will be circulated across the network to engage further interest and establish group SPC_0809_08 Development of a Regional Syringe Driver Prescription Chart Ms Kathy Stephenson reported that the second consultation of the draft regional syringe driver prescription chart and the focus group discussions, Pilots of the chart are to be undertaken within Trust, Hospices and General Practices. SPC_0809_05 A framework for Generalist and Specialist Palliative and End of Life Care Competency Dr Kathleen Dunne, lead of the Education works strand, reported on the findings following consultation of the Education framework. The report was widely appreciated across the network and valued as a significant and timely document for the commissioning of generalist and specialist adult palliative care education. Mr MacDonnell congratulated Dr Dunne and the members of the education workstrand for developing the framework aligning its significance to the underpinning needs of the regional model Amendments will be made to the document and then forwarded to the NICaN Board for endorsement. A process of implementation will be explored and reported to the network group at the September meeting. Key target areas for generalist palliative care education were highlighted within care of the elderly and general medicine. . SPC_0809_06 Pallcareni.net-a website for people with palliative care needs Ms Danny Sinclair, reminded the group of the pending amalgamation of the CAPriCORN and NICaN website. The resulting new web address will be www. cancerni.net. Recurrent funding has been secured to ensure the development of the supportive and palliative care website.www.Pallcareni.net The new website will host good information for people with palliative care needs, regardless of diagnosis. It will be accessible via the cancerni.net portal or independently as the pallcareni portal. It will signpost people with palliative care needs to condition- specific websites. The website will also enable the communication needs of the NI Regional Supportive & Palliative Care Network. This is a very significant method of seeking to enable greater understanding of palliative care for public and professionals, as highlighted within the regional model. Currently the material from the CAPriCORN website is being migrated onto cancerni and /or pallcareni.net as appropriate. To enable the further development of this opportunity a steering group of interested individuals is to be established. Their role will be to: · Drive the development of the website so it meets the needs of public and professionals through the sourcing and development of additional content · Identify any support that is needed, e.g. technical support · Review the website as a whole as it grows (coordinating condition-specific developments) · Review the functions of the website to aid communication throughout the Supportive and Palliative care network The steering group representation should reflect the constituencies within the Supportive and Palliative Care network. Current expressions of interest have come from Heather Reid and Valerie Peacock. A date will be circulated across the network to engage further interest and establish group SPC_0809_07 Update of Guidelines workstrand Dr Pauline Wilkinson presented the current work within the guidelines workstrand. 1. Brief Holistic Assessment & Referral Criteria to Specialist Palliative Care The development of an Holistic assessment Tool will help to identify holistic need at generalist and specialist level. Recognition of complex need prompts appropriate referral to specialist palliative care. The regional referral form is compatible with the Minimum Data set. The final drafts of this work are to be circulated widely, inclusive of service framework groups, primary care, secondary care and the supportive and palliative care network. Consultation will take place during June and July. Piloting of the forms will also be undertaken. 2. Control of Pain in Cancer Patients The original guidelines where developed 2003 and are now ready for review. The Mapping exercise, undertaken in May 2007, highlighted that the Guidelines were poorly adopted. The group have reviewed the pending SIGN 2 guidelines for pain with regard to practice in Northern Ireland. These are highly evidence based and are due to be launched this Summer. Whilst an excellent resource their comprehensiveness limits their readability, this may result in poor compliance. The Guidelines group feel it is important to have accessible and user-friendly guidelines particularly for Generalists and Out of hours. There are examples of good work that has taken place across the province, but there is a need for regional consistency. Dr Wilkinson has contacted Dr Carolyn Harper (Deputy CMO) and GAIN with regard to enabling funding to progress this work. The Guidelines group hope to approach the NICaN Primary Care Group to work in collaboratively on this piece, based on the templates already available. The works should be available in both electronic and paper versions. 3. Care of the dying & Breaking bad news Dr Gail Johnston has now completed an Audit of the Care of the Dying Pathways within the EHSSB. Gail is also seeking to examine to what extent the Regional Guidelines for Breaking Bad News are being implemented in the EHSSB with a view to identifying the need for further training or organisational structures that would facilitate future uptake. 4. Advances in new Technology Syringe Drivers Dr Wilkinson reported on a presentation made to the guidelines group by Mr Jim Elliot, Principle Engineer, Cardiology & Ann McLean, and Macmillan Palliative Care Nurse RVH. There is increasing concern with regard to how devices meet the recommended safety standards and how to reduce error. New devices have 3 point checking, automatic detection of syringe, automatic flow rates, full range of alarms, battery status and data download to provide an event log. There are now 2 companies in UK who have devices that meet these safety criteria. The current Graseby syringe drivers, which have been on the market and used predominately within Northern Ireland over the past 27 years Most new devices are not compatible with the regionally available monoject syringe, however contractual changes will lead to the withdrawal of the monoject syringes in October 2008. The Guidelines group supports a regional approach to this matter. This was echoed in the Supportive and Palliative care network. An option appraisal, identifying costs, and training issues should be developed through the engagement with Trusts and DHSSPSNI. The issue of Patient safety should be raised with the DHSSPSNI. SPC_0809_09 Evaluation of Supportive and Palliative Care network Deferred to next meeting. . SPC_0809_10 Emerging Issues Mrs Anne Coyle, Bereavement Coordinator, Southern Trust, announced that the Regional Bereavement Strategy is soon to be released. Anne supported the close alignment between the content of the strategy and the work of the regional model and other workstrands within the Supportive and Palliative care network. Ms Eleanor Donaghy, Transplant Coordinator, briefly highlighted the issue of tissue donation. Each year Northern Ireland has a dearth of corneal donations. There is no upper age limit for donation and retrieval is not limited by a cancer diagnosis. Recipients do not require immunosuppressive and the transplant is lifelong. The National Blood Service provided coordination of this donation they may be contacted via 07659180773. It is hoped that Mrs Coyle and Ms Donaghy could provide more comprehensive presentations at a future meeting. Events · Irish Psycho- Oncology Group Seminar, Cork 6 June, Exploring the Struggle for meaning in Cancer · Integrated Care: Putting Research into Practice, 13June, Trinity College, Dublin · Macmillan online conference Friday 13 June 2008, 9am - 5pm · Delivering effective end of life care: developing partnership working 15 Oct 2008, 9.30 -4.15 pm London Network Meeting was closed at 5.00pm SPC_0607_ Dates of Future Meetings (please note the change of venue) 10th September 2008, 1.30 - 5pm venue to be decided15th January 2009, 1.30 - 5pm venue to be decided12th May 2009, 1.30 - 5pm venue to be decided Attendances Apologies Stuart MacDonnellLorna NevinSonja McIlfatrick Donna FitzsimonsKathleen DunnePauline WilkinsonKathy StephensonSheila KellyMarie Nugent,Anne CoyleFiona GilmourJudith HillLorna DicksonMargaret CarlinLoretta GribbenYvonne Duff Lesley NelsonLiz HendersonSue FosterCathy PayneGraeme PaynePatricia MageeGeraldine WeatherupPaula KealyCaroline McAfeeLinda WrayValerie PeacockAnn McCleanRay Elder Martin BradleyHelen HumeGillian RankinHeather MonteverdeJulie DoyleAlison PorterYvonne SmythLiz Atkinson,Glynis HenryMaeve HullyCaroline HughesAnn FinnBob BrownSharon BarrJulie DoyleJanis McCulla .

Substitution rates at neutral genes depend on population size under fluctuating demography and overlapping generations.

It is widely accepted that the rate of evolution (substitution rate) at neutral genes is unaffected by population size fluctuations. This result has implications for the analysis of genetic data in population genetics and phylogenetics, and provides, in particular, a justification for the concept of the molecular clock. Here, we show that the substitution rate at neutral genes does depend on population size fluctuations in the presence of overlapping generations. As both population size fluctuations and overlapping generations are expected to be the norm rather than the exception in natural populations, this observation may be relevant for understanding variation in substitution rates within and between lineages.

Bat flies (Diptera: Streblidae, Nycteribiidae) parasitic on bats (Mammalia: Chiroptera) at Parque Estadual da Cantareira, São Paulo, Brazil: parasitism rates and host-parasite associations

A total of 443 bat flies belonging to the families Nycteribiidae and Strelidae, were collected on 22 species of bats (Molossidae, Phyllostomidae, and Vespertilionidae) from Parque Estadual da Cantareira (São Paulo, Brazil), between January, 2000 and January, 2001. Eighteen new occurrences of bat flies were recorded on Anoura geoffroyi (Anastrebla caudiferae), Glossophaga soricina (A. caudiferae), Sturnira lilium (Trichobius phyllostomae, T. furmani, and Paraeuctenodes similis), Artibeus lituratus (A. caudiferae), A. fimbriatus (Megistopoda proxima), A. obscurus (Metelasmus pseudopterus), Myotis nigricans (M. proxima, M. aranea, Paratrichobius longicrus), M. ruber (Anatrichobius passosi, Joblingia sp.), M. levis (A. passosi), M. albescens (A. passosi, Basilia andersoni), and Histiotus velatus (M. aranea). Seven new occurrences were recorded for the state of São Paulo, increasing the range for T. tiptoni, T. furmani, M. proxima, Aspidoptera falcata, A. caudiferae, A. modestini and B. andersoni. The relationships between parasitism and host sex, reproductive stage, age hyperparasitism by fungi are discussed.

Hospital admission rates for alcoholic intoxication after policy changes in the canton of Geneva, Switzerland.

Background: In February, 2005, the canton of Geneva in Switzerland prohibited the off-premise sale of alcoholic beverages between 9pm and 7am, and banned their sale in gas stations and video stores. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of this policy change on hospital admission rates for alcoholic intoxication.Methods: An interrupted time series analysis of this natural experiment was performed with data on hospitalisations for acute alcoholic intoxication during the 2002-2007 period. The canton of Geneva was treated as the experimental group, while all other Swiss cantons were used as the control group.Results: In the experimental site, the policy change was found to have a significant effect on admission rates among adolescents and young adults. Depending on the age group, hospitalisation rates for alcoholic intoxication fell by an estimated 25-40% as the result of restricted alcohol availability.Conclusions: Modest restrictions on opening hours and the density of off-premise outlets were found to be of relevance for public health in the canton of Geneva. In light of this finding, policy makers should consider such action as a promising approach to alcohol prevention. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Novel Pulse-Chase SILAC Strategy Measures Changes in Protein Decay and Synthesis Rates Induced by Perturbation of Proteostasis with an Hsp90 Inhibitor.

Standard proteomics methods allow the relative quantitation of levels of thousands of proteins in two or more samples. While such methods are invaluable for defining the variations in protein concentrations which follow the perturbation of a biological system, they do not offer information on the mechanisms underlying such changes. Expanding on previous work [1], we developed a pulse-chase (pc) variant of SILAC (stable isotope labeling by amino acids in cell culture). pcSILAC can quantitate in one experiment and for two conditions the relative levels of proteins newly synthesized in a given time as well as the relative levels of remaining preexisting proteins. We validated the method studying the drug-mediated inhibition of the Hsp90 molecular chaperone, which is known to lead to increased synthesis of stress response proteins as well as the increased decay of Hsp90 "clients". We showed that pcSILAC can give information on changes in global cellular proteostasis induced by treatment with the inhibitor, which are normally not captured by standard relative quantitation techniques. Furthermore, we have developed a mathematical model and computational framework that uses pcSILAC data to determine degradation constants kd and synthesis rates Vs for proteins in both control and drug-treated cells. The results show that Hsp90 inhibition induced a generalized slowdown of protein synthesis and an increase in protein decay. Treatment with the inhibitor also resulted in widespread protein-specific changes in relative synthesis rates, together with variations in protein decay rates. The latter were more restricted to individual proteins or protein families than the variations in synthesis. Our results establish pcSILAC as a viable workflow for the mechanistic dissection of changes in the proteome which follow perturbations. Data are available via ProteomeXchange with identifier PXD000538.

Epidemiological pattern and mortality rates for hepatitis A in Brazil, 1980-2002: a review

The prevalence of hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection is high in developing countries, in which low standards of sanitation promote the transmission of the virus. In Latin America, which is considered an area of high HAV endemicity, most HAV-positive individuals are infected in early childhood. However, recent studies have shown that prevalence rates are decreasing. Herein, we review the data on HAV prevalence and outbreaks available in scientific databases. We also use official government data in order to evaluate mortality rates in Brazil over the last two decades. Studies conducted in the northernmost regions of Brazil have indicated that, although improved hygiene has led to a reduction in childhood exposure to HAV, the greatest exposure still occurs early in life. In the Southeastern region, the persistence of circulating HAV has generated outbreaks among individuals of low socioeconomic status, despite adequate sanitation. Nationwide, hepatitis A mortality rates declined progressively from 1980 to 2002. During that period, mortality rates in the Northern region consistently exceeded the mean national rate and those for other regions. Excluding the North, the rates in all regions were comparable. Nevertheless, the trend toward decline observed in the South was paralleled by a similar trend in the North.

High constant incidence rates of second primary cancers of the head and neck: a pooled analysis of 13 cancer registries.

Scanty data are available on the incidence (i.e., the absolute risk) of second cancers of the head and neck (HN) and its pattern with age. We investigated this issue using data from a multicentric study of 13 population-based cancer registries from Europe, Canada, Australia and Singapore for the years 1943-2000. A total of 99,257 patients had a first primary HN cancer (15,985 tongue, 22,378 mouth, 20,758 pharyngeal, and 40,190 laryngeal cancer), contributing to 489,855 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1,294 of the patients (1.3%) were diagnosed with second HN cancers (342 tongue, 345 mouth, 418 pharynx and 189 larynx). Male incidence rates of first HN cancer steeply increased from 0.68/100,000 at age 30-34 to 46.2/100,000 at age 70-74, and leveled off at older age; female incidence increased from 0.50/100,000 at age 30-34 to 16.5/100,000 at age 80-84. However, age-specific incidence of second HN cancers after a first HN cancer in men was around 200-300/100,000 between age 40-44 and age 70-74 and tended to decline at subsequent ages (150/100,000 at age 80-84); in women, incidence of second HN cancers was around 200-300/100,000 between age 45-49 and 80-84. The patterns of age-specific incidence were consistent for different subsites of second HN cancer and sexes; moreover, they were similar for age-specific incidence of first primary HN cancer in patients who subsequently developed a second HN cancer. The incidence of second HN cancers does not increase with age, but remains constant, or if anything, decreases with advancing age.

Coevolution of adaptive technology, maladaptive culture and population size in a producer-scrounger game.

Technology (i.e. tools, methods of cultivation and domestication, systems of construction and appropriation, machines) has increased the vital rates of humans, and is one of the defining features of the transition from Malthusian ecological stagnation to a potentially perpetual rising population growth. Maladaptations, on the other hand, encompass behaviours, customs and practices that decrease the vital rates of individuals. Technology and maladaptations are part of the total stock of culture carried by the individuals in a population. Here, we develop a quantitative model for the coevolution of cumulative adaptive technology and maladaptive culture in a 'producer-scrounger' game, which can also usefully be interpreted as an 'individual-social' learner interaction. Producers (individual learners) are assumed to invent new adaptations and maladaptations by trial-and-error learning, insight or deduction, and they pay the cost of innovation. Scroungers (social learners) are assumed to copy or imitate (cultural transmission) both the adaptations and maladaptations generated by producers. We show that the coevolutionary dynamics of producers and scroungers in the presence of cultural transmission can have a variety of effects on population carrying capacity. From stable polymorphism, where scroungers bring an advantage to the population (increase in carrying capacity), to periodic cycling, where scroungers decrease carrying capacity, we find that selection-driven cultural innovation and transmission may send a population on the path of indefinite growth or to extinction.

What is the most relevant standard of success in assisted reproduction?: The cumulated singleton/twin delivery rates per oocyte pick-up: the CUSIDERA and CUTWIDERA.

National and international registries are essential tools for establishing new standards and comparing success rates, but they do not take into account the total pregnancy/delivery rate per oocyte recovery. In Switzerland and Germany, because of legal constraints, a maximum of three two-pronuclear zygotes are allocated for transfer whereas all the supernumerary pronuclear zygotes are immediately cryopreserved, preventing selection of the transferred embryos. We report on a 10 years' experience (1993-2002) of our centre which performs transfers of unselected embryos and cryopreservation at the two-pronuclear zygote stage. As approximately 30% of all deliveries are from cryo cycles, it is essential to take into account the contribution of the cryo transfers, and we propose therefore to evaluate, as a measure of IVF performance, the cumulated delivery rate per oocyte pick-up. This delivery rate is broken down further into the cumulated singleton delivery rate (CUSIDERA) and the cumulated twin delivery rate (CUTWIDERA). The sum (S) of these two rates is a measure of efficacy while the ratio CUTWIDERA/S as a percentage is a measure of safety of IVF treatments. Using these new indexes, the average 10 year efficacy and safety of our IVF programme were 26 and 19%, respectively. Both CUSIDERA and CUTWIDERA can be calculated easily in any clinical situation and yield useful parameters for patient counselling and internal/external benchmarking purposes.

The relationship between forensic science and judicial error: a study covering error sources, bias, and remedies

Summary : Forensic science - both as a source of and as a remedy for error potentially leading to judicial error - has been studied empirically in this research. A comprehensive literature review, experimental tests on the influence of observational biases in fingermark comparison, and semistructured interviews with heads of forensic science laboratories/units in Switzerland and abroad were the tools used. For the literature review, some of the areas studied are: the quality of forensic science work in general, the complex interaction between science and law, and specific propositions as to error sources not directly related to the interaction between law and science. A list of potential error sources all the way from the crime scene to the writing of the report has been established as well. For the empirical tests, the ACE-V (Analysis, Comparison, Evaluation, and Verification) process of fingermark comparison was selected as an area of special interest for the study of observational biases, due to its heavy reliance on visual observation and recent cases of misidentifications. Results of the tests performed with forensic science students tend to show that decision-making stages are the most vulnerable to stimuli inducing observational biases. For the semi-structured interviews, eleven senior forensic scientists answered questions on several subjects, for example on potential and existing error sources in their work, of the limitations of what can be done with forensic science, and of the possibilities and tools to minimise errors. Training and education to augment the quality of forensic science have been discussed together with possible solutions to minimise the risk of errors in forensic science. In addition, the time that samples of physical evidence are kept has been determined as well. Results tend to show considerable agreement on most subjects among the international participants. Their opinions on possible explanations for the occurrence of such problems and the relative weight of such errors in the three stages of crime scene, laboratory, and report writing, disagree, however, with opinions widely represented in existing literature. Through the present research it was therefore possible to obtain a better view of the interaction of forensic science and judicial error to propose practical recommendations to minimise their occurrence. Résumé : Les sciences forensiques - considérés aussi bien comme source de que comme remède à l'erreur judiciaire - ont été étudiées empiriquement dans cette recherche. Une revue complète de littérature, des tests expérimentaux sur l'influence du biais de l'observation dans l'individualisation de traces digitales et des entretiens semi-directifs avec des responsables de laboratoires et unités de sciences forensiques en Suisse et à l'étranger étaient les outils utilisés. Pour la revue de littérature, quelques éléments étudies comprennent: la qualité du travail en sciences forensiques en général, l'interaction complexe entre la science et le droit, et des propositions spécifiques quant aux sources d'erreur pas directement liées à l'interaction entre droit et science. Une liste des sources potentielles d'erreur tout le long du processus de la scène de crime à la rédaction du rapport a également été établie. Pour les tests empiriques, le processus d'ACE-V (analyse, comparaison, évaluation et vérification) de l'individualisation de traces digitales a été choisi comme un sujet d'intérêt spécial pour l'étude des effets d'observation, due à son fort recours à l'observation visuelle et dû à des cas récents d'identification erronée. Les résultats des tests avec des étudiants tendent à prouver que les étapes de prise de décision sont les plus vulnérables aux stimuli induisant des biais d'observation. Pour les entretiens semi-structurés, onze forensiciens ont répondu à des questions sur des sujets variés, par exemple sur des sources potentielles et existantes d'erreur dans leur travail, des limitations de ce qui peut être fait en sciences forensiques, et des possibilités et des outils pour réduire au minimum ses erreurs. La formation et l'éducation pour augmenter la qualité des sciences forensiques ont été discutées ainsi que les solutions possibles pour réduire au minimum le risque d'erreurs en sciences forensiques. Le temps que des échantillons sont gardés a été également déterminé. En général, les résultats tendent à montrer un grand accord sur la plupart des sujets abordés pour les divers participants internationaux. Leur avis sur des explications possibles pour l'occurrence de tels problèmes et sur le poids relatif de telles erreurs dans les trois étapes scène de crime;', laboratoire et rédaction de rapports est cependant en désaccord avec les avis largement représentés dans la littérature existante. Par cette recherche il était donc possible d'obtenir une meilleure vue de l'interaction des sciences forensiques et de l'erreur judiciaire afin de proposer des recommandations pratiques pour réduire au minimum leur occurrence. Zusammenfassung : Forensische Wissenschaften - als Ursache und als Hilfsmittel gegen Fehler, die möglicherweise zu Justizirrtümern führen könnten - sind hier empirisch erforscht worden. Die eingestzten Methoden waren eine Literaturübersicht, experimentelle Tests über den Einfluss von Beobachtungseffekten (observer bias) in der Individualisierung von Fingerabdrücken und halbstandardisierte Interviews mit Verantwortlichen von kriminalistischen Labors/Diensten in der Schweiz und im Ausland. Der Literaturüberblick umfasst unter anderem: die Qualität der kriminalistischen Arbeit im Allgemeinen, die komplizierte Interaktion zwischen Wissenschaft und Recht und spezifische Fehlerquellen, welche nicht direkt auf der Interaktion von Recht und Wissenschaft beruhen. Eine Liste möglicher Fehlerquellen vom Tatort zum Rapportschreiben ist zudem erstellt worden. Für die empirischen Tests wurde der ACE-V (Analyse, Vergleich, Auswertung und Überprüfung) Prozess in der Fingerabdruck-Individualisierung als speziell interessantes Fachgebiet für die Studie von Beobachtungseffekten gewählt. Gründe sind die Wichtigkeit von visuellen Beobachtungen und kürzliche Fälle von Fehlidentifizierungen. Resultate der Tests, die mit Studenten durchgeführt wurden, neigen dazu Entscheidungsphasen als die anfälligsten für Stimuli aufzuzeigen, die Beobachtungseffekte anregen könnten. Für die halbstandardisierten Interviews beantworteten elf Forensiker Fragen über Themen wie zum Beispiel mögliche und vorhandene Fehlerquellen in ihrer Arbeit, Grenzen der forensischen Wissenschaften und Möglichkeiten und Mittel um Fehler zu verringern. Wie Training und Ausbildung die Qualität der forensischen Wissenschaften verbessern können ist zusammen mit möglichen Lösungen zur Fehlervermeidung im selben Bereich diskutiert worden. Wie lange Beweismitten aufbewahrt werden wurde auch festgehalten. Resultate neigen dazu, für die meisten Themen eine grosse Übereinstimmung zwischen den verschiedenen internationalen Teilnehmern zu zeigen. Ihre Meinungen über mögliche Erklärungen für das Auftreten solcher Probleme und des relativen Gewichts solcher Fehler in den drei Phasen Tatort, Labor und Rapportschreiben gehen jedoch mit den Meinungen, welche in der Literatur vertreten werden auseinander. Durch diese Forschungsarbeit war es folglich möglich, ein besseres Verständnis der Interaktion von forensischen Wissenschaften und Justizirrtümer zu erhalten, um somit praktische Empfehlungen vorzuschlagen, welche diese verringern. Resumen : Esta investigación ha analizado de manera empírica el rol de las ciencias forenses como fuente y como remedio de potenciales errores judiciales. La metodología empleada consistió en una revisión integral de la literatura, en una serie de experimentos sobre la influencia de los sesgos de observación en la individualización de huellas dactilares y en una serie de entrevistas semiestructuradas con jefes de laboratorios o unidades de ciencias forenses en Suiza y en el extranjero. En la revisión de la literatura, algunas de las áreas estudiadas fueron: la calidad del trabajo en ciencias forenses en general, la interacción compleja entre la ciencia y el derecho, así como otras fuentes de error no relacionadas directamente con la interacción entre derecho y ciencia. También se ha establecido una lista exhaustiva de las fuentes potenciales de error desde la llegada a la escena del crimen a la redacción del informe. En el marco de los tests empíricos, al analizar los sesgos de observación dedicamos especial interés al proceso de ACE-V (análisis, comparación, evaluación y verificación) para la individualización de huellas dactilares puesto que este reposa sobre la observación visual y ha originado varios casos recientes de identificaciones erróneas. Los resultados de las experimentaciones realizadas con estudiantes sugieren que las etapas en las que deben tornarse decisiones son las más vulnerables a lös factores que pueden generar sesgos de observación. En el contexto de las entrevistas semi-estructuradas, once científicos forenses de diversos países contestaron preguntas sobre varios temas, incluyendo las fuentes potenciales y existehtes de error en su trabajo, las limitaciones propias a las ciencias forenses, las posibilidades de reducir al mínimo los errores y las herramientas que podrían ser utilizadas para ello. Se han sugerido diversas soluciones para alcanzar este objetivo, incluyendo el entrenamiento y la educación para aumentar la calidad de las ciencias forenses. Además, se ha establecido el periodo de conservación de las muestras judiciales. Los resultados apuntan a un elevado grado de consenso entre los entrevistados en la mayoría de los temas. Sin embargo, sus opiniones sobre las posibles causas de estos errores y su importancia relativa en las tres etapas de la investigación -la escena del crimen, el laboratorio y la redacción de informe- discrepan con las que predominan ampliamente en la literatura actual. De este modo, esta investigación nos ha permitido obtener una mejor imagen de la interacción entre ciencias forenses y errores judiciales, y comenzar a formular una serie de recomendaciones prácticas para reducirlos al minimo.

Survival, prognostic factors and rates of leukemic transformation in 381 untreated patients with MDS and del(5q): a multicenter study.

Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) with del(5q) are considered to have a benign course of the disease. In order to address the issue of the propensity of those patients to progress to acute myeloid leukemia (AML), data on 381 untreated patients with MDS and del(5q) characterized by low or intermediate I International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) risk score were collected from nine centers and registries. Median survival of the entire group was 74 months. Transfusion-dependent patients had a median survival of 44 months vs 97 months for transfusion-independent patients (P<0.0001). Transfusion need at diagnosis was the most important patient characteristic for survival. Of the 381 patients, 48 (12.6%) progressed to AML. The cumulative progression rate calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method was 4.9% at 2 years and 17.6% at 5 years. Factors associated with the risk of AML transformation were high-risk World Health Organization adapted Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS) score, marrow blast count >5% and red-cell transfusion dependency at diagnosis. In conclusion, patients with MDS and del(5q) are facing a considerable risk of AML transformation. More detailed cytogenetic and molecular studies may help to identify the patients at risk of progression.

Malaria entomological inoculation rates in gold mining areas of Southern Venezuela

A longitudinal study of malaria vectors aiming to describe the intensity of transmission was carried out in five villages of Southern Venezuela between January 1999-April 2000. The man-biting, sporozoite and entomological inoculation rates (EIR) were calculated based on 121 all-night collections of anophelines landing on humans, CDC light traps and ultra violet up-draft traps. A total of 6,027 female mosquitoes representing seven species were collected. The most abundant species were Anopheles marajoara Galvão & Damasceno (56.7%) and Anopheles darlingi Root (33%), which together accounted for 89.7% of the total anophelines collected. The mean biting rate for An. marajoara was 1.27 (SD + 0.81); it was 0.74 (SD + 0.91) for An. darlingand 0.11 (SD + 0.10) for Anopheles neomaculipalpus Curry and the overall biting rate was 2.29 (SD + 1.06). A total of 5,886 mosquitoes collected by all three methods were assayed by ELISA and 28 pools, equivalent to 28 mosquitoes, yielded positive results for Plasmodium spp. CS protein. An. neomaculipalpus had the highest sporozoite rate 0.84% (3/356), followed by An. darlingi 0.82% (16/1,948) and An. marajoara 0.27% (9/3,332). The overall sporozoite rate was 0.48% (28/5,886). The rates of infection by Plasmodium species in mosquitoes were 0.37% (22/5,886) for Plasmodium vivax(Grassi & Feletti) and 0.10% (6/5,886) for Plasmodium falciparum (Welch). The estimated overall EIR for An. darling was 2.21 infective bites/person/year, 1.25 for An. marajoara and 0.34 for An. neomaculipalpus. The overall EIR was four infective bites/person/year. The biting rate, the sporozoite rate and the EIR are too low to be indicators of the efficacy of control campaigns in this area.

Container productivity, daily survival rates and dispersal of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in a high income dengue epidemic neighbourhood of Rio de Janeiro: presumed influence of differential urban structure on mosquito biology

Different urban structures might affect the life history parameters of Aedes aegypti and, consequently, dengue transmission. Container productivity, probability of daily survival (PDS) and dispersal rates were estimated for mosquito populations in a high income neighbourhood of Rio de Janeiro. Results were contrasted with those previously found in a suburban district, as well as those recorded in a slum. After inspecting 1,041 premises, domestic drains and discarded plastic pots were identified as the most productive containers, collectively holding up to 80% of the total pupae. In addition, three cohorts of dust-marked Ae. aegypti females were released and recaptured daily using BGS-Traps, sticky ovitraps and backpack aspirators in 50 randomly selected houses; recapture rate ranged from 5-12.2% within cohorts. PDS was determined by two models and ranged from 0.607-0.704 (exponential model) and 0.659-0.721 (non-linear model), respectively. Mean distance travelled varied from 57-122 m, with a maximum dispersal of 263 m. Overall, lower infestation indexes and adult female survival were observed in the high income neighbourhood, suggesting a lower dengue transmission risk in comparison to the suburban area and the slum. Since results show that urban structure can influence mosquito biology, specific control strategies might be used in order to achieve cost-effective Ae. aegypti control.

Correcting Measurement Error Bias in Interaction Models with Small Samples

Several methods have been suggested to estimate non-linear models with interaction terms in the presence of measurement error. Structural equation models eliminate measurement error bias, but require large samples. Ordinary least squares regression on summated scales, regression on factor scores and partial least squares are appropriate for small samples but do not correct measurement error bias. Two stage least squares regression does correct measurement error bias but the results strongly depend on the instrumental variable choice. This article discusses the old disattenuated regression method as an alternative for correcting measurement error in small samples. The method is extended to the case of interaction terms and is illustrated on a model that examines the interaction effect of innovation and style of use of budgets on business performance. Alternative reliability estimates that can be used to disattenuate the estimates are discussed. A comparison is made with the alternative methods. Methods that do not correct for measurement error bias perform very similarly and considerably worse than disattenuated regression

The predation cost of being a male: implications for sex-specific rates of ageing

Evolutionary theory predicts that the rate of extrinsic (i.e. age- and condition-independent) mortality should affect important life history traits such as the rate of ageing and maximum lifespan. Sex-specific differences in mortality rates due to predation may therefore result in the evolution of important differences in life history traits between males and females. However, quantifying the role of predators as a factor of extrinsic mortality is notoriously difficult in natural populations. We took advantage of the unusual prey caching behaviour of the barn owl Tyto alba and the tawny owl Strix aluco to estimate the sex ratio of their five most common preys. For all prey species, there was a significant bias in the sex ratio of remains found in nests of both these owls. A survey of literature revealed that sex-biased predation is a common phenomenon. These results demonstrate that predation, a chief source of extrinsic mortality, was strongly sex-biased. This may select for alternate life history strategies between males and females, and account for a male life span being frequently lower than female lifespan in many animal species.