Bartlett-Lewis of rectangular pulse modified model: estimate of parameters for simulation of precipitation in sub-hourly duration

The Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse Modified (BLPRM) model simulates the precipitous slide in the hourly and sub-hourly and has six parameters for each of the twelve months of the year. This study aimed to evaluate the behavior of precipitation series in the duration of 15 min, obtained by simulation using the model BLPRM in situations: (a) where the parameters are estimated from a combination of statistics, creating five different sets; (b) suitability of the model to generate rain. To adjust the parameters were used rain gauge records of Pelotas/RS/Brazil, which statistics were estimated - mean, variance, covariance, autocorrelation coefficient of lag 1, the proportion of dry days in the period considered. The results showed that the parameters related to the time of onset of precipitation (λ) and intensities (μx) were the most stable and the most unstable were ν parameter, related to rain duration. The BLPRM model adequately represented the mean, variance, and proportion of the dry period of the series of precipitation lasting 15 min and, the time dependence of the heights of rain, represented autocorrelation coefficient of the first retardation was statistically less simulated series suitability for the duration of 15 min.

The use of ALOS/PALSAR data for estimating sugarcane productivity

Some models have been developed using agrometeorological and remote sensing data to estimate agriculture production. However, it is expected that the use of SAR images can improve their performance. The main objective of this study was to estimate the sugarcane production using a multiple linear regression model which considers agronomic data and ALOS/PALSAR images obtained from 2007/08, 2008/09 and 2009/10 cropping seasons. The performance of models was evaluated by coefficient of determination, t-test, Willmott agreement index (d), random error and standard error. The model was able to explain 79%, 12% and 74% of the variation in the observed productions of the 2007/08, 2008/09 and 2009/10 cropping seasons, respectively. Performance of the model for the 2008/09 cropping season was poor because of the occurrence of a long period of drought in that season. When the three seasons were considered all together, the model explained 66% of the variation. Results showed that SAR-based yield prediction models can contribute and assist sugar mill technicians to improve such estimates.

White mold detection in common beans through leaf reflectance spectroscopy

ABSTRACT This study aimed to identify wavelengths based on leaf reflectance (400-1050 nm) to estimate white mold severity in common beans at different seasons. Two experiments were carried out, one during fall and another in winter. Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression was used to establish a set of wavelengths that better estimates the disease severity at a specific date. Therefore, observations were previously divided in two sub-groups. The first one (calibration) was used for model building and the second subgroup for model testing. Error measurements and correlation between measured and predicted values of disease severity index were employed to provide the best wavelengths in both seasons. The average indexes of each experiment were of 5.8% and 7.4%, which is considered low. Spectral bands ranged between blue and green, green and red, and red and infrared, being most sensitive for disease estimation. Beyond the transition ranges, other spectral regions also presented wavelengths with potential to determine the disease severity, such as red, green, and near infrared.

Night admission is an independent risk factor for mortality in trauma patients - a systemic error approach

ABSTRACTObjective:to assess the impact of the shift inlet trauma patients, who underwent surgery, in-hospital mortality.Methods:a retrospective observational cohort study from November 2011 to March 2012, with data collected through electronic medical records. The following variables were statistically analyzed: age, gender, city of origin, marital status, admission to the risk classification (based on the Manchester Protocol), degree of contamination, time / admission round, admission day and hospital outcome.Results:during the study period, 563 patients injured victims underwent surgery, with a mean age of 35.5 years (± 20.7), 422 (75%) were male, with 276 (49.9%) received in the night shift and 205 (36.4%) on weekends. Patients admitted at night and on weekends had higher mortality [19 (6.9%) vs. 6 (2.2%), p=0.014, and 11 (5.4%) vs. 14 (3.9%), p=0.014, respectively]. In the multivariate analysis, independent predictors of mortality were the night admission (OR 3.15), the red risk classification (OR 4.87), and age (OR 1.17).Conclusion:the admission of night shift and weekend patients was associated with more severe and presented higher mortality rate. Admission to the night shift was an independent factor of surgical mortality in trauma patients, along with the red risk classification and age.

Novel Methods for Error Modeling and Parameter Identification of a Redundant Serial-Parallel Hybrid Robot

To obtain the desirable accuracy of a robot, there are two techniques available. The first option would be to make the robot match the nominal mathematic model. In other words, the manufacturing and assembling tolerances of every part would be extremely tight so that all of the various parameters would match the “design” or “nominal” values as closely as possible. This method can satisfy most of the accuracy requirements， but the cost would increase dramatically as the accuracy requirement increases. Alternatively, a more cost-effective solution is to build a manipulator with relaxed manufacturing and assembling tolerances. By modifying the mathematical model in the controller, the actual errors of the robot can be compensated. This is the essence of robot calibration. Simply put, robot calibration is the process of defining an appropriate error model and then identifying the various parameter errors that make the error model match the robot as closely as possible. This work focuses on kinematic calibration of a 10 degree-of-freedom (DOF) redundant serial-parallel hybrid robot. The robot consists of a 4-DOF serial mechanism and a 6-DOF hexapod parallel manipulator. The redundant 4-DOF serial structure is used to enlarge workspace and the 6-DOF hexapod manipulator is used to provide high load capabilities and stiffness for the whole structure. The main objective of the study is to develop a suitable calibration method to improve the accuracy of the redundant serial-parallel hybrid robot. To this end, a Denavit–Hartenberg (DH) hybrid error model and a Product-of-Exponential (POE) error model are developed for error modeling of the proposed robot. Furthermore, two kinds of global optimization methods, i.e. the differential-evolution (DE) algorithm and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, are employed to identify the parameter errors of the derived error model. A measurement method based on a 3-2-1 wire-based pose estimation system is proposed and implemented in a Solidworks environment to simulate the real experimental validations. Numerical simulations and Solidworks prototype-model validations are carried out on the hybrid robot to verify the effectiveness, accuracy and robustness of the calibration algorithms.

Comparison of Two- and Three-dimensional Ultrasonography in the Evaluation of Lesion Level in Fetuses with Spina Bifida

Purpose To evaluate the precision of both two- and three-dimensional ultrasonography in determining vertebral lesion level (the first open vertebra) in patients with spina bifida. Methods This was a prospective longitudinal study comprising of fetuses with open spina bifida who were treated in the fetal medicine division of the department of obstetrics of Hospital das Clínicas of the Universidade de São Paulo between 2004 and 2013. Vertebral lesion level was established by using both two- and three-dimensional ultrasonography in 50 fetuses (two examiners in each method). The lesion level in the neonatal period was established by radiological assessment of the spine. All pregnancies were followed in our hospital prenatally, and delivery was scheduled to allow immediate postnatal surgical correction. Results Two-dimensional sonography precisely estimated the spina bifida level in 53% of the cases. The estimate error was within one vertebra in 80% of the cases, in up to two vertebrae in 89%, and in up to three vertebrae in 100%, showing a good interobserver agreement. Three-dimensional ultrasonography precisely estimated the lesion level in 50% of the cases. The estimate error was within one vertebra in 82% of the cases, in up to two vertebrae in 90%, and in up to three vertebrae in 100%, also showing good interobserver agreement. Whenever an estimate error was observed, both two- and three-dimensional ultrasonography scans tended to underestimate the true lesion level (55.3% and 62% of the cases, respectively). Conclusions No relevant difference in diagnostic performance was observed between the two- and three-dimensional ultrasonography. The use of three-dimensional ultrasonography showed no additional benefit in diagnosing the lesion level in the fetuses with spina bifida. Errors in both methods showed a tendency to underestimate lesion level.

Ovarian and uterine periovulatory Doppler ultrasonography in bitches

This paper aims to describe the uterine and ovarian ultrasonographic characteristics and Doppler velocimetric features of their arteries in bitches during the periovulatory period. Fifteen estrous cycles in 10 animals were evaluated. The ultrasonographic characteristics, resistance indices (RI) and pulsatility indices (PI) of the uterus and ovaries in each animal were recorded 5 days before and after ovulation (D0). The data were statistically analyzed, and the results were expressed as the mean ± standard error of mean (P<0.05). In results the ultrasonographic features of the uterus were the same on all of the cycles and evaluated days. The uterus had an average diameter of 0.85±0.02cm. An increase in the volume of the ovaries and the diameter of the ovarian follicles were measured. Ovaries had a volume of 0.64±0.06cm³, and the follicles cavities had a diameter of 0.46 ± 0.01 cm on the day of ovulation. After ovulation, it was observed that some follicles not collapse in some cycles. Two days prior to ovulation, the uterine blood perfusion decreased. This decrease remained unchanged until ovulation. Following ovulation, we measured a gradual increase in the uterine perfusion and in the ovarian artery. This artery directed blood flow to the ovaries and increased the intra-ovarian perfusion on the day after ovulation. In conclusion, specific features are observed in the uterus and ovarian ultrasound image and Doppler values of their arteries presented on the periovulatory days and when associated allow to estimate more accurately the date of ovulation.

A modified contour error controller for a high speed XY table

This article deals with a contour error controller (CEC) applied in a high speed biaxial table. It works simultaneously with the table axes controllers, helping them. In the early stages of the investigation, it was observed that its main problem is imprecision when tracking non-linear contours at high speeds. The objectives of this work are to show that this problem is caused by the lack of exactness of the contour error mathematical model and to propose modifications in it. An additional term is included, resulting in a more accurate value of the contour error, enabling the use of this type of motion controller at higher feedrate. The response results from simulated and experimental tests are compared with those of common PID and non-corrected CEC in order to analyse the effectiveness of this controller over the system. The main conclusions are that the proposed contour error mathematical model is simple, accurate, almost insensible to the feedrate and that a 20:1 reduction of the integral absolute contour error is possible.

Statistical analysis of survey-based event history data with application to modeling of unemployment duration

Longitudinal surveys are increasingly used to collect event history data on person-specific processes such as transitions between labour market states. Surveybased event history data pose a number of challenges for statistical analysis. These challenges include survey errors due to sampling, non-response, attrition and measurement. This study deals with non-response, attrition and measurement errors in event history data and the bias caused by them in event history analysis. The study also discusses some choices faced by a researcher using longitudinal survey data for event history analysis and demonstrates their effects. These choices include, whether a design-based or a model-based approach is taken, which subset of data to use and, if a design-based approach is taken, which weights to use. The study takes advantage of the possibility to use combined longitudinal survey register data. The Finnish subset of European Community Household Panel (FI ECHP) survey for waves 1–5 were linked at person-level with longitudinal register data. Unemployment spells were used as study variables of interest. Lastly, a simulation study was conducted in order to assess the statistical properties of the Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighting (IPCW) method in a survey data context. The study shows how combined longitudinal survey register data can be used to analyse and compare the non-response and attrition processes, test the missingness mechanism type and estimate the size of bias due to non-response and attrition. In our empirical analysis, initial non-response turned out to be a more important source of bias than attrition. Reported unemployment spells were subject to seam effects, omissions, and, to a lesser extent, overreporting. The use of proxy interviews tended to cause spell omissions. An often-ignored phenomenon classification error in reported spell outcomes, was also found in the data. Neither the Missing At Random (MAR) assumption about non-response and attrition mechanisms, nor the classical assumptions about measurement errors, turned out to be valid. Both measurement errors in spell durations and spell outcomes were found to cause bias in estimates from event history models. Low measurement accuracy affected the estimates of baseline hazard most. The design-based estimates based on data from respondents to all waves of interest and weighted by the last wave weights displayed the largest bias. Using all the available data, including the spells by attriters until the time of attrition, helped to reduce attrition bias. Lastly, the simulation study showed that the IPCW correction to design weights reduces bias due to dependent censoring in design-based Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard model estimators. The study discusses implications of the results for survey organisations collecting event history data, researchers using surveys for event history analysis, and researchers who develop methods to correct for non-sampling biases in event history data.

McFarland nephelometer as a simple method to estimate the sensitivity of the polymerase chain reaction using Mycobacterium tuberculosis as a research tool

Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has been widely investigated for the diagnosis of tuberculosis. However, before this technique is applied on clinical samples, it needs to be well standardized. We describe the use of McFarland nephelometer, a very simple approach to determine microorganism concentration in solution, for PCR standardization and DNA quantitation, using Mycobacterium tuberculosis as a model. Tuberculosis is an extremely important disease for the public health system in developing countries and, with the advent of AIDS, it has also become an important public health problem in developed countries. Using Mycobacterium tuberculosis as a research model, we were able to detect 3 M. tuberculosis genomes using the McFarland nephelometer to assess micobacterial concentration. We have shown here that McFarland nephelometer is an easy and reliable procedure to determine PCR sensitivity at lower costs.

Simulation of the Interaction Mean Free Path between Neutrons and TRISO Particles

The interaction mean free path between neutrons and TRISO particles is simulated using scripts written in MATLAB to solve the increasing error present with an increase in the packing factor in the reactor physics code Serpent. Their movement is tracked both in an unbounded and in a bounded space. Their track is calculated, depending on the program, linearly directly using the position vectors of the neutrons and the surface equations of all the fuel particles; by dividing the space in multiple subspaces, each of which contain a fraction of the total number of particles, and choosing the particles from those subspaces through which the neutron passes through; or by choosing the particles that lie within an infinite cylinder formed on the movement axis of the neutron. The estimate from the current analytical model, based on an exponential distribution, for the mean free path, utilized by Serpent, is used as a reference result. The results from the implicit model in Serpent imply a too long mean free path with high packing factors. The received results support this observation by producing, with a packing factor of 17 %, approximately 2.46 % shorter mean free path compared to the reference model. This is supported by the packing factor experienced by the neutron, the simulation of which resulted in a 17.29 % packing factor. It was also observed that the neutrons leaving from the surfaces of the fuel particles, in contrast to those starting inside the moderator, do not follow the exponential distribution. The current model, as it is, is thus not valid in the determination of the free path lengths of the neutrons.

Inhibition of the sarcoplasmic reticulum Ca2+ pump with thapsigargin to estimate the contribution of Na+-Ca2+ exchange to ventricular myocyte relaxation

Relaxation in the mammalian ventricle is initiated by Ca2+ removal from the cytosol, which is performed by three main transport systems: sarcoplasmic reticulum Ca2+-ATPase (SR-A), Na+-Ca2+ exchanger (NCX) and the so-called slow mechanisms (sarcolemmal Ca2+-ATPase and mitochondrial Ca2+ uptake). To estimate the relative contribution of each system to twitch relaxation, SR Ca2+ accumulation must be selectively inhibited, usually by the application of high caffeine concentrations. However, caffeine has been reported to often cause changes in membrane potential due to NCX-generated inward current, which compromises the reliability of its use. In the present study, we estimated integrated Ca2+ fluxes carried by SR-A, NCX and slow mechanisms during twitch relaxation, and compared the results when using caffeine application (Cf-NT) and an electrically evoked twitch after inhibition of SR-A with thapsigargin (TG-TW). Ca2+ transients were measured in 20 isolated adult rat ventricular myocytes with indo-1. For transients in which one or more transporters were inhibited, Ca2+ fluxes were estimated from the measured free Ca2+ concentration and myocardial Ca2+ buffering characteristics. NCX-mediated integrated Ca2+ flux was significantly higher with TG-TW than with Cf-NT (12 vs 7 µM), whereas SR-dependent flux was lower with TG-TW (77 vs 81 µM). The relative participations of NCX (12.5 vs 8% with TG-TW and Cf-NT, respectively) and SR-A (85 vs 89.5% with TG-TW and Cf-NT, respectively) in total relaxation-associated Ca2+ flux were also significantly different. We thus propose TG-TW as a reliable alternative to estimate NCX contribution to twitch relaxation in this kind of analysis.

Estimate of respiration rate and physicochemical changes of fresh-cut apples stored under different temperatures

In this study, the influence of storage temperature and passive modified packaging (PMP) on the respiration rate and physicochemical properties of fresh-cut Gala apples (Malus domestica B.) was investigated. The samples were packed in flexible multilayer bags and stored at 2 °C, 5 °C, and 7 °C for eleven days. Respiration rate as a function of CO2 and O2 concentrations was determined using gas chromatography. The inhibition parameters were estimated using a mathematical model based on Michaelis-Menten equation. The following physicochemical properties were evaluated: total soluble solids, pH, titratable acidity, and reducing sugars. At 2 °C, the maximum respiration rate was observed after 150 hours. At 5 °C and 7 °C the maximum respiration rates were observed after 100 and 50 hours of storage, respectively. The inhibition model results obtained showed a clear effect of CO2 on O2 consumption. The soluble solids decreased, although not significantly, during storage at the three temperatures studied. Reducing sugars and titratable acidity decreased during storage and the pH increased. These results indicate that the respiration rate influenced the physicochemical properties.

Estimate of dietary intake of chloropropanols (3-MCPD and 1,3-DCP) and health risk assessment

Chloropropanols, including 3-monochloropropane-1,2-diol (3-MCPD) and 1,3-dichloropropan-2-ol (1,3-DCP), comprise a group of chemical contaminants with carcinogenic and genotoxic properties. They have been found in a variety of processed foods and food ingredients, such as hydrolyzed vegetable protein, soy sauce, cereal-based products, malt-derived ingredients, and smoked foods. This study aimed to assess the dietary exposure to 3-MCPD and 1,3-DCP in Brazil and verify whether the presence of these substances in foods could represent health risks. The intake was calculated by combining data on food consumption, provided by the Consumer Expenditure Survey 2008-2009, with the levels of contaminant occurrence determined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The exposure to 3-MCPD ranged from 0.06 to 0.51 µg.kg bw-1.day-1 considering average and high consumers, while the intake of 1,3-DCP was estimated to be 0.0036 µg.kg bw-1.day-1 in the worst case scenario evaluated. Based on these results, it was verified that the Brazilians' exposure to chloropropanols does not present a significant health risk. However, the consumption of specific foods containing high levels of 3-MCPD could exceed the provisional maximum tolerable daily intake of 2 µg.kg bw-1 established for this compound and, therefore, represent a potential concern.