Ecological fallacy in a time series context: evidence from the Spanish regional unemployment rates

The ecological fallacy (EF) is a common problem regional scientists have to deal with when using aggregated data in their analyses. Although there is a wide number of studies considering different aspects of this problem, little attention has been paid to the potential negative effects of the EF in a time series context. Using Spanish regional unemployment data, this paper shows that EF effects are not only observed at the cross-section level, but also in a time series framework. The empirical evidence obtained shows that analytical regional configurations are the least susceptible to time effects relative to both normative and random regional configurations, while normative configurations are an improvement over random ones.

Ecological and Epidemiological Analyses of Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Rate

The underlying cause of many human autoimmune diseases is unknown, but several environmental factors are implicated in triggering the self-destructive immune reactions. Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a chronic autoimmune disease of the central nervous system, potentially leading to persistent neurological deterioration. The cause of MS is not known, and apart from immunomodulatory treatments there is no cure. In the early phase of the disease, relapsing-remitting MS (RR-MS) is characterized by unpredictable exacerbations of the neurological symptoms called relapses, which can occur at different intervals ranging from 4 weeks to several years. Microbial infections are known to be able to trigger MS relapses, and the patients are instructed to avoid all factors that might increase the risk of infections and to properly use antibiotics as well as to take care of dental hygiene. Among those environmental factors which are known to increase susceptibility to infections, high ambient air inhalable particulate matter levels affect all people within a geographical region. During the period of interest in this thesis, the occurrence of MS relapses could be effectively reduced by injections of interferon, which has immunomodulatory and antiviral properties. In this thesis, ecological and epidemiological analyses were used to study the possible connection between MS relapse occurrence, population level viral infections and air quality factors, as well as the effects of interferon medication. Hospital archive data were collected retrospectively from 1986-2001, a period in time ranging from when interferon medication first became available until just before other disease-modifying MS therapies arrived on the market. The grouped data were studied with logistic regression and intervention analysis, and individual patient data with survival analysis. Interferons proved to be effective in the treatment of MS in this observational study, as the amount of MS exacerbations was lower during interferon use as compared to the time before interferon treatment. A statistically significant temporal relationship between MS relapses and inhalable particular matter (PM₁₀) concentrations was found in this study, which implies that MS patients are affected by the exposure to PM₁₀. Interferon probably protected against the effect of PM₁₀, because a significant increase in the risk of exacerbations was only observed in MS patients without interferon medication following environmental exposure to population level specific viral infections and PM₁₀. Apart from being antiviral, interferon could thus also attenuate the enhancement of immune reactions caused by ambient air PM₁₀. The retrospective approach utilizing carefully constructed hospital records proved to be an economical and reliable source of MS disease information for statistical analyses.

What can and should be legalized in ecological restoration?

After listing the five key elements of ecological restoration, ecology, economics, social values, cultural values, and politics, I celebrate the fact that in Brazil there is legislation on how to perform ecological restoration of degraded tropical forests, as well as an ongoing dialogue among legislators and scientists about this legislation, and also a lively debate among scientists as the best way forward, referring to articles by Brancalion et al. (2010) and Durigan et al. (2010) in this issue of Revista Árvore. Legislators elsewhere, especially megadiversity countries, should take note. I do not take sides in the debate; I think both groups of authors make very good points. Instead I call on the scientists and legislators concerned with restoration to ponder five strategic tools: A. Start with clear concepts. B. Decide where you want to go and why. C. Negotiate who should benefit & how, and who should pay, how, & why. D. Work out how an honest cost-benefit analysis of restoration would look, regardless of the biome in which you are working. Finally, figure out how to make the restoration immediately attractive for private landowners. Otherwise, they will not cooperate as fully as they could or should, and restoration efforts will not achieve its full potential.

Diameter structure of stratum and ecological groups of a Semideciduous Forest area in Dionísio-MG

The objective of this study was to obtain homogeneous groups of species and information on their density, dominance and volume, in terms of ecological group and diameter structure of an area of Submontane Semideciduous forest (Mata do Mumbaça) in Dionísio, MG. This work was conducted with data of the diameter distribution per species from floristic and phytosociological (Mata do Mumbaça) survey of 120 plots with 10 x 10 m each one. The 120 plots were contiguous and corresponding to a total sample area of 12,000 m² distributed over the topographic units (Low Ramp, Lower Slope, Upper Slope and Hill Top). The topographic units Low Ramp, Lower Slope and Upper Slope were in the middle stage of succession as they presented incipient stratification into two strata (canopy and understory) i.e. canopy ranging from 5 to 12 m high. However, the stratum Hill Top was classified as intermediate/advanced succession because it had a total height equal to or greater than 12 m. The distribution of individual trees of the four strata on diameter classes showed a typical J-inverted pattern that is, high concentration of individuals in smaller diameter classes and a sharp reduction towards the larger classes. In relation to absolute dominance and total volume of species, the ecological group that stood out in the four strata (Low Ramp, Lower Slope, Upper Slope and Hill Top) was the initial secondary, which were in the intermediate stage of secondary, rapidly developing into the mature phase.

Occurrence of parasitism by Dioctophyma renale in ring-tailed coatis (Nasua nasua) of the Tiete Ecological Park, São Paulo, Brazil

Dioctophymosis is a worldwide renal parasitosis caused by the Dioctophyma renale nematode, which results in progressive destruction of renal tissue. Aquatics annelids are considered the main intermediate hosts and the literature refers as permanent hosts of dogs, wild mammals and even humans. During procedures for population control of coatis (Nasua nasua) in the Ecological Park of Tietê (PET), was noticed the presence of parasitosis by D. renale. From 68 animals, males and females, young and adults, submitted to exploratory laparotomy, 51 were positive for the presence of worms, 9 were found only in the right kidney. In 10 cases, in addition to right kidney parasitism, worms were also observed in the abdominal cavity. In 24 cases D. renale was found only in the abdominal cavity and in 8 animals the right kidney was reduced to a small rigid structure. The study showed that the preferred site for parasitism of the worm, considered erratic, was the abdominal cavity in 66.66% of the cases.

Comparative anatomy of the thigh nerves of Cebus libidinosus (Rylands et al., 2000)

Non-human primates have constituted an important group among animals subjected to various studies. Ethological, evolutionary and paleontological studies have revealed changes in anatomical structures linked to the evolution of primates, considered in studies on the comparative anatomy between Cebus libidinosus and other neotropical monkeys or those from the Old World, and the detailed knowledge on their anatomy may represent an important factor for their preservation and protection when the animals are brought to veterinary clinics after accidents or illnesses. In terms of veterinary importance, sometimes these animals arrive in the veterinary medical clinics after accidents, needing surgery or clinical treatment, but the little data available on anatomy has impaired the correct proceedings. The main justification for studies on C. libidinosus, is due to little information about the anatomy related to C. libidinosus in Brazilian and worldwide scientific literature. In this study, the distribution, enervation and path of the femoral and sciatic nerves of the pelvic limb (thigh) of C. libidinosus were studied and these results were compared with literature on the anatomy of humans, chimpanzees and baboons. In general, the enervation model of the four primates is identical, but in specific terms, the differences in enervations indicate evolution convergence closer to the branch of baboons in the evolutionary tree, and these data corroborate other comparative studies in relation to the same primates to vessels, muscles and nerves. In conclusion, the nerve organization in the thigh of C. libidinosus is identical to baboon, chimpanzee and homo, but more similar to baboon. The specific differences found indicate an ancient phylogenic origin to C. libidinosus and baboons (data corroborated by other studies).

Morphology and topographic anatomy of the spinal cord of the red-footed tortoise (Geochelone carbonaria Spix, 1824)

The aim of this study was to describe the topography of the spinal cord of the red-footed tortoise to establish a morphological basis for applied research in anesthesiology and morphology. Six tortoises from the state of Maranhão (Brazil) that had died of natural causes were used. The common carotid artery was used to perfuse the arterial system with saline solution (heated to 37ºC) and to fix the material with a 20% formaldehyde solution. The specimens were then placed in a modified decalcifying solution for 72 hours to allow dorsal opening of the carapace with a chisel and an orthopedic hammer. Dissection of the dorsal musculature and sectioning of the vertebral arches were performed to access the spinal cord. The results revealed the spinal cord of G. carbonaria to be an elongated, whitish mass that reached the articulation between the penultimate and last caudal vertebrae. The cervical intumescence (Intumescentia cervicalis) was located between vertebral segments C5 and T1, whereas the lumbosacral intumescence (Intumescentia lumbalis) was located between T6 and Ca1.

Frequency of Toxoplasma gondii antibodies in tufted capuchin monkeys (Cebus apella nigritus) from an ecological station in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Toxoplasmosis is a worldwide zoonosis caused by Toxoplasma gondii, an obligate intracellular parasite protozoan. A large percentage of animals presents specific antibodies caused by a previous exposition, resulting in a chronic infection. Felides are the definitive hosts and the other warm-blooded animals, including primates, are the intermediate hosts. This study was aimed to determine the prevalence of T. gondii infection in free-living tufted capuchin monkeys (Cebus apella nigritus) from an ecological station located on Mata de Santa Teresa, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil. T. gondii antibodies were analyzed by modified agglutination test (MAT) in serum samples of 36 tufted capuchin monkeys, considering eight as cut-off titer. From the studied animals, 3/36 (8.33%; CI95% 3.0-21.9%) presented T. gondii antibodies, all with titer 32. No significative difference was observed relating to the sex (1/3 male and 2/3 female), and to the age (1/3 young and 2/3 adult) (P>0.05). Thus, these results demonstrate the presence of T. gondii antibodies in primates from São Paulo state.

Osteology and radiographic anatomy of the hind limbs in Marshdeer (Blastocerus dichotomus)

Abstract: The knowledge of anatomical structures found in wild animals is important for the practice of medical and surgical clinic. Thus, the aim of this study was to describe the osteology and radiographic anatomy of the femur, patella, tibia, fibula, tarsal, metatarsal and phalanges of the Marshdeer Blastocerus dichotomus as a reference for clinical use and species identification. Most structures were similar to those found in domestic animals, with special features of this species. Noteworthy is, for example, the absence of the third trochanter of the femur. Although a ruminant, the Marshdeer has a fibuyla similar to the one described for the horse. B. dichotomus has four fingers on each limb, formed through three phalanges, only the third and fourth finger touch the ground, and the second and fifth finger is rudimentary. It has four proximal and two distal sesamoid bones, and sesamoid bones near the gastrocnemius muscle do not exist.

Leaf blade quantitative anatomy of sugarcane cultivars and clones

The objective of this study was to make a quantitative assess of the anatomic characteristics of leaf blade of the sugarcane cultivars RB855113, SP80-1842, SP80-1816, RB867515 and clone RB957689 presenting different sensitivity to the mixture of sodium trifloxysulfuron + ametryn herbicides. Compared to the other cultivars assessed, RB855113 cultivar, considered more sensitive to the herbicide mixture, presented relevant differences such as greater proportion of bulliform cells, greater tissue proportion in the transverse section of the leaf blade, greater stomata and trichome density on both surfaces, thinner epidermis on the adaxial surface and length of stomata on both surfaces. The external paraclinal wall of the bulliform cells was thinner than in the common epidermis cells in all the genotypes on the adaxial and abaxial surfaces. Multivariate analysis of the data on the variables considered most relevant to explain the herbicide penetration singled out the sensitive RB855113 from the other materials. Such characteristics can explain the greater penetration, and consequently, greater sensitivity of this cultivar to the sodium trifloxysulfuron + ametryn mixture.

Foliar anatomy of the species Lantana camara and L. radula (Verbenaceae)

The species Lantana camara, commonly used as ornamental, has spread worldwide becoming one of the world's most important weeds. To develop new methods of control of this plant, it is essential to distinguish it from other species of the same genus, and this is usually accomplished through taxonomic studies of fertile samples. Considering the similarity between L. camara and L. radula, and the consequent difficulty in distinguishing one from the other when only sterile samples are available, this work aimed to investigate the use of the anatomical characteristics of the leaves of both species as tools for supporting correct classification. The leaves of L. camara and L. radula were anatomically examined by light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. The major differences were observed in the petiole, which presented secretory idioblasts in L. camara. Secretory idioblasts were observed in the leaf blades of L. camara and Crystalliferou idioblasts were found in L. radula. Glandular and nonglandular trichomes as well as the abaxial surface are different in each species. Such results can support the strategies aiming at the control of L. camara without interfering with L. radula.

Influence of seed size and ecological factors on the germination and emergence of field bindweed (Convolvulus arvensis)

An understanding of seed germination ecology of weeds can assist in predicting their potential distribution and developing effective management strategies. Influence of environmental factors and seed size on germination and seedling emergence of Convolvulus arvensis (field bindweed) was studied in laboratory and greenhouse conditions. Germination occurred over a wide range of constant temperatures, between 15 and 40 ºC, with optimum germination between 20 and 25 ºC. Time to start germination, time to 50% germination and mean germination time increased while germination percentage and germination index decreased with an increase in temperature from 20 ºC, salinity and osmotic stress. However, germination was tolerant to low salt (25 mM) or osmotic stress (0.2 MPa), but as salinity and osmotic stress increased, germination percentage and germination index decreased. Seeds of C. arvensis placed at soil surface showed maximum emergence and decreased as seeding depth increased. Seeds of C. arvensis germinated over a wide range of pH (4 to 9) but optimum germination occurred at pH 6 to 8. Under highly alkaline and acidic pH, time to start germination, time to 50% germination and mean germination time increased while germination percentage and germination index decreased. Increase in field capacity caused decreased time to start germination, time to 50% germination and mean germination time but increased germination percentage and germination index. Bigger seeds had low time to start germination, time to 50% germination and mean germination time but high germination percentage and germination index. Smaller seeds were more sensitive to environmental factors as compared to larger or medium seeds. It can be concluded that except for pH, all environmental factors and seed sizes adversely affect C. arvensis as regards seed germination or emergence and germination or emergence traits, and larger seeds result in improved stand establishment and faster germination than small seeds, regardless of moisture stress or deeper seeding depth.

Effect of ecological factors on germination of horse purslane (Trianthema portulacastrum)

Trianthema portulacastrum is a very problematic summer crop weed and a complete crop failure has been observed because of this weed at high density. The effect of different ecological factors on germination of T. portulacastrum seeds collected in two different years (2009 and 2005) was studied in laboratory experiments. An increase in temperature from 25 to 35 ºC increased germination percentage of T. portulacastrum from 65 to 85%, after which germination started to decrease, reducing to 71.25% at 45 ºC. Trianthema portulacastrum had maximum germination with distilled water compared with different salt solutions and drought stress levels. Germination was significantly minimum at salinity and drought stress level of 250 mM and -0.8 MPa, respectively. Emergence of T. portulacastrum was maximum (86.25%) at 100% field capacity level but decreased sharply as field capacity decreased thereafter, and minimum emergence (30%) was recorded at field capacity level of 25%. Germination of T. portulacastrum was lowest at pH 5 and any increase in pH resulted in increased germination. A pH range of 8 to 10 had statistically similar germination. Sowing depth of 6 cm reduced the emergence of T. portulacastrum to zero. Reduction in emergence was recorded with depth increase from zero to 5 cm. Maximum emergence was recorded from soil surface (0 cm). An increase in temperature, salinity, drought, sowing depth (up to 4 cm) and a decrease in field capacity increased time to start germination/emergence, time to 50% germination/emergence and mean germination/emergence time but decreased germination/emergence index. Seeds collected during 2009 gave higher germination than old seeds collected in 2005. This information might contribute to development of effective control of T. portulacastrum.