Ecological responses to recent climate change

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.

Organizational responses to a changing aid environment: the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ)

As a major European donor, German government development assistance faces a series of challenges. Recent political changes have raised expectations for demonstrable health outcomes as a result of German development assistance; there has been a deepened commitment to collaboration with other bilateral and multilateral donors; and partner countries are increasingly open to new approaches to development. German development assistance also reflects a new ethos of partnership and the shift to programmatic and sector based development approaches. At the same time, its particular organizational structure and administrative framework highlight the extent of structural and systems reforms required of donors by changing development relationships, and the tensions created in responding to these. This paper examines organizational changes within the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit) (GTZ), aimed at increasing its Regional, Sectoral, Managerial and Process competence as they affect health and related sectors. These include the decentralization of GTZ, the trend to integration of projects, the increasing focus on policy and health systems reform, increased inter-sectoral collaboration, changes in recruitment and training, new perspectives in planning and evaluation and the introduction of a quality management programme. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

The GP problem: quantifying gene-to-phenotype relationships

In this paper we refer to the gene-to-phenotype modeling challenge as the GP problem. Integrating information across levels of organization within a genotype-environment system is a major challenge in computational biology. However, resolving the GP problem is a fundamental requirement if we are to understand and predict phenotypes given knowledge of the genome and model dynamic properties of biological systems. Organisms are consequences of this integration, and it is a major property of biological systems that underlies the responses we observe. We discuss the E(NK) model as a framework for investigation of the GP problem and the prediction of system properties at different levels of organization. We apply this quantitative framework to an investigation of the processes involved in genetic improvement of plants for agriculture. In our analysis, N genes determine the genetic variation for a set of traits that are responsible for plant adaptation to E environment-types within a target population of environments. The N genes can interact in epistatic NK gene-networks through the way that they influence plant growth and development processes within a dynamic crop growth model. We use a sorghum crop growth model, available within the APSIM agricultural production systems simulation model, to integrate the gene-environment interactions that occur during growth and development and to predict genotype-to-phenotype relationships for a given E(NK) model. Directional selection is then applied to the population of genotypes, based on their predicted phenotypes, to simulate the dynamic aspects of genetic improvement by a plant-breeding program. The outcomes of the simulated breeding are evaluated across cycles of selection in terms of the changes in allele frequencies for the N genes and the genotypic and phenotypic values of the populations of genotypes.

Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Cellular responses to Schistosoma japonicum cathepsin D aspartic protease

Lymphocyte proliferation and cytokine production were measured in groups of mice vaccinated (but not subsequently challenge infected) with recombinant forms of Schistosoma japonicum cathepsin D aspartic protease, rSjASP1 (expressed in bacteria; enzymatically inactive) and rSjASP2 (expressed in insect cells; enzymatically active). Both forms of the schistosome enzyme induced significant proliferation of splenocytes recovered from vaccinated mice, and expression of interferon (IFN)-gamma, interleukin (IL)-4 and IL-10 mRNA in these cells was detected using reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction. Secretion of IFN-gamma, IL-4 and IL-10 by splenocytes from vaccinated mice was confirmed and quantified using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. IFN-gamma was the most abundant cytokine produced, followed by IL-4 and IL-10 in rank order. These findings indicated that vaccination of mice with the schistosome protease induces a mixed Th1/Th2 cytokine response, which may explain the modest level of protection after challenge infection in cathepsin d-vaccinated mice, reported previously.

Opposing roles for medial and central amygdala in the initiation of noradrenergic cell responses to a psychological stressor

Psychological stressors trigger the activation of medullary noradrenergic cells, an effect that has been shown to depend upon yet-to-be-identified structures located higher in the brain. To test whether the amygdala is important in this regard, we examined the effects of amygdala lesions on noradrenergic cell responses to restraint, and also looked at whether any amygdala cells that respond to restraint project directly to the medulla. Ibotenic acid lesions of the medial amygdala completely abolished restraint-induced Fos expression in A1 and A2 noradrenergic cells. In contrast, lesions of the central amygdala actually facilitated noradrenergic cell responses to restraint. Tracer deposits in the dorsomedial (but not ventrolateral) medulla retrogradely labelled many cells in the central nucleus of the amygdala, but none of these cells expressed Fos in response to restraint. These data suggest for the first time that the medial amygdala is critical to the activation of medullary noradrenergic cells by a psychological stressor whereas the central nucleus exerts an opposing, inhibitory influence upon noradrenergic cell recruitment. The initiation of noradrenergic cell responses by the medial amygdala does not involve a direct projection to the medulla. Accordingly, a relay through some other structure, such as the hypothalamic paraventricular nucleus, warrants careful consideration.

Colony-stimulating factor-1 suppresses responses to CpG DNA and expression of toll-like receptor 9 but enhances responses to lipopolysaccharide in murine macrophages

During bacterial infections, the balance between resolution of infection and development of sepsis is dependent upon the macrophage response to bacterial products. We show that priming of murine bone marrow-derived macrophages (BMMs) with CSF-1 differentially regulates the response to two such stimuli, LPS and immunostimulatory (CpG) DNA. CSF-1 pretreatment enhanced IL-6, IL-12, and TNF-alpha production in response to LPS but suppressed the same response to CpG DNA. CSF-1 also regulated cytokine gene expression in response to CpG DNA and LPS; CpG DNA-induced IL-12 p40, IL-12 p35, and TNF-alpha mRNAs were all suppressed by CSF-1 pretreatment. CSF-1 pretreatment enhanced LPS-induced IL-12 p40 mRNA but not TNF-alpha and IL-12 p35 mRNAs, suggesting that part of the priming effect is posttranscriptional. CSF-1 pretreatment also suppressed CpG DNA-induced nuclear translocation of NF-kappaB and phosphorylation of the mitogen-activated protein kinases p38 and extracellular signal-related kinases-1/2 in BMMs, indicating that early events in CpG DNA signaling were regulated by CSF-1. Expression of Toll-like receptor (TLR)9, which is necessary for responses to CpG DNA, was markedly suppressed by CSF-1 in both BMMs and thioglycolate-elicited peritoneal macrophages. CSF-1 also down-regulated expression of TLR1, TLR2, and TLR6, but not the LPS receptor, TLR4, or TLR5. Hence, CSF-1 may regulate host responses to pathogens through modulation of TLR expression. Furthermore, these results suggest that CSF-1 and CSF-1R antagonists may enhance the efficacy of CpG DNA in vivo.

Behavioural responses of two native Australian fish species (Melanotaenia duboulayi and Pseudomugil signifer) to introduced poeciliids (Gambusia holbrooki and Xiphophorus helleri) in controlled conditions

Experimental treatments to compare behavioural responses included native fish species only, natives plus one exotic species and natives plus both exotic species. The mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki frequently attacked both native species, but tended to nip Melanotaenia duboulayi (especially small individuals) and chase Pseudomugil signifer The frequency of attacks by G. holbrooki on M. duboulayi rose when all four fish species were present. When food was added, all four species showed a strong increase in aggression, especially in the four-species treatment, where there were significant increases in the frequency of attacks by the swordtail Xiphophorus helleri on M. duboulay and by M. duboulayi on G. holbrooki, and of conspecific attacks by M. duboulayi. Increased attack frequency was associated with aggregation closer to the water's surface, regardless of the presence of food. The results support the hypothesis that introduced poeciliids can have deleterious competitive effects on native species. However, while juvenile M. duboulayi were particularly vulnerable to the secondary, effects of fin-nipping, R signifer appeared to be more susceptible to physical displacement and reduced food capture success.

Fitting genetic models to twin data with binary and ordered categorical responses: A comparison of structural equation modelling and Bayesian hierarchical models

We compare Bayesian methodology utilizing free-ware BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling) with the traditional structural equation modelling approach based on another free-ware package, Mx. Dichotomous and ordinal (three category) twin data were simulated according to different additive genetic and common environment models for phenotypic variation. Practical issues are discussed in using Gibbs sampling as implemented by BUGS to fit subject-specific Bayesian generalized linear models, where the components of variation may be estimated directly. The simulation study (based on 2000 twin pairs) indicated that there is a consistent advantage in using the Bayesian method to detect a correct model under certain specifications of additive genetics and common environmental effects. For binary data, both methods had difficulty in detecting the correct model when the additive genetic effect was low (between 10 and 20%) or of moderate range (between 20 and 40%). Furthermore, neither method could adequately detect a correct model that included a modest common environmental effect (20%) even when the additive genetic effect was large (50%). Power was significantly improved with ordinal data for most scenarios, except for the case of low heritability under a true ACE model. We illustrate and compare both methods using data from 1239 twin pairs over the age of 50 years, who were registered with the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Twin Registry (ATR) and presented symptoms associated with osteoarthritis occurring in joints of the hand.

The effect of heat transfer mode on heart rate responses and hysteresis during heating and cooling in the estuarine crocodile Crocodylus porosus

The effect of heating and cooling on heart rate in the estuarine crocodile Crocodylus porosus was studied in response to different heat transfer mechanisms and heat loads. Three heating treatments were investigated. C. porosus were: (1) exposed to a radiant heat source under dry conditions; (2) heated via radiant energy while half-submerged in flowing water at 23degreesC and (3) heated via convective transfer by increasing water temperature from 23degreesC to 35degreesC. Cooling was achieved in all treatments by removing the heat source and with C. porosus half-submerged in flowing water at 23degreesC. In all treatments, the heart rate of C. porosus increased markedly in response to heating and decreased rapidly with the removal of the heat source. Heart rate during heating was significantly faster than during cooling at any given body temperature, i.e. there was a significant heart rate hysteresis. There were two identifiable responses to heating and cooling. During the initial stages of applying or removing the heat source, there was a dramatic increase or decrease in heart rate ('rapid response'), respectively, indicating a possible cardiac reflex. This rapid change in heart rate with only a small change or no change in body temperature (

The use of stochastic dynamic programming in optimal landscape reconstruction for metapopulations

A decision theory framework can be a powerful technique to derive optimal management decisions for endangered species. We built a spatially realistic stochastic metapopulation model for the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius), a critically endangered Australian bird. Using diserete-time Markov,chains to describe the dynamics of a metapopulation and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to find optimal solutions, we evaluated the following different management decisions: enlarging existing patches, linking patches via corridors, and creating a new patch. This is the first application of SDP to optimal landscape reconstruction and one of the few times that landscape reconstruction dynamics have been integrated with population dynamics. SDP is a powerful tool that has advantages over standard Monte Carlo simulation methods because it can give the exact optimal strategy for every landscape configuration (combination of patch areas and presence of corridors) and pattern of metapopulation occupancy, as well as a trajectory of strategies. It is useful when a sequence of management actions can be performed over a given time horizon, as is the case for many endangered species recovery programs, where only fixed amounts of resources are available in each time step. However, it is generally limited by computational constraints to rather small networks of patches. The model shows that optimal metapopulation, management decisions depend greatly on the current state of the metapopulation,. and there is no strategy that is universally the best. The extinction probability over 30 yr for the optimal state-dependent management actions is 50-80% better than no management, whereas the best fixed state-independent sets of strategies are only 30% better than no management. This highlights the advantages of using a decision theory tool to investigate conservation strategies for metapopulations. It is clear from these results that the sequence of management actions is critical, and this can only be effectively derived from stochastic dynamic programming. The model illustrates the underlying difficulty in determining simple rules of thumb for the sequence of management actions for a metapopulation. This use of a decision theory framework extends the capacity of population viability analysis (PVA) to manage threatened species.

Generation of CTL responses using Kunjin replicon RNA

The Kunjin replicon was used to express a polytope that consisted of seven hepatitis C virus cytotoxic T lymphocyte epitopes and one influenza cytotoxic T lymphocyte epitope for vaccination studies. The self-replicating nature of, and expression from, the ribonucleic acid was confirmed in vitro . Initial vaccinations with one dose of Kun-Poly ribonucleic acid showed that an influenza-specific cytotoxic T lymphocyte response was elicited more efficiently by intradermal inoculation compared with intramuscular delivery. Two micrograms of ribonucleic acid delivered in the ear pinnae of mice was sufficient to elicit a detectable cytotoxic T lymphocyte response 10 days post-vaccination. Further vaccination studies showed that four of the seven hepatitis C virus cytotoxic T lymphocyte epitopes were able to elicit weak cytotoxic T lymphocyte responses whereas the influenza epitope was able to elicit strong, specific cytotoxic T lymphocyte responses following three doses of Kun-Poly ribonucleic acid. These studies vindicate the use of the Kunjin replicon as a vector to deliver encoded proteins for the development of cell-mediated immune responses.

Photosynthetic light and temperature responses of Eucalyptus cloeziana and Eucalyptus argophloia

Acclimation of gas exchange to temperature and light was determined in 18-month-old plants of humid coastal (Gympie) and dry inland ( Hungry Hills) provenances of Eucalyptus cloeziana F. Muell., and in those of a dry inland provenance of Eucalyptus argophloia Blakely. Plants were acclimated at day/night temperatures of 18/13, 23/18, 28/23 and 33/ 28 degreesC in controlled-temperature glasshouses for 4 months. Light and temperature response curves were measured at the beginning and end of the acclimation period. There were no significant differences in the shape and quantum-yield parameters among provenances at 23, 28 and 33 degreesC day temperatures. Quantum yield [mumol CO2 mumol(- 1) photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD)] ranged from 0.04 to 0.06 and the light response shape parameter ranged from 0.53 to 0.78. Similarly, no consistent trends in the rate of dark respiration for plants of each provenance were identified at the four growth temperatures. Average values of dark respiration for the plants of the three provenances ranged from 0.61 to 1.86 mumol m(-2) s(-1). The optimum temperatures for net photosynthesis increased from 23 to 32 degreesC for the humid- and from 25 to 33 degreesC for the dry-provenance E. cloeziana and from 21 to 33 degreesC for E. argophloia as daytime temperature of the growth environment increased from 18 to 33 degreesC. These results have implications in predicting survival and productivity of E. cloeziana and E. argophloia in areas outside their natural distribution.

Photosynthetic responses of the coral Montipora digitata to cold temperature stress

Coral bleaching events have become more frequent and widespread, largely due to elevated sea surface temperatures. Global climate change could lead to increased variability of sea surface temperatures, through influences on climate systems, e.g. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Field observations in 1999, following a strong ENSO, revealed that corals bleached in winter after unusually cold weather. To explore the basis for these observations, the photosynthetic responses of the coral species Montipora digitata Studer were investigated in a series of temperature and light experiments. Small replicate coral colonies were exposed to ecologically relevant lower temperatures for varying durations and under light regimes that ranged from darkness to full sunlight. Photosynthetic efficiency was analyzed using a pulse amplitude modulated (PAM) fluorometer (F-0, F-m, F-v/F-m), and chlorophyll a (chl a) content and symbiotic dinoflagellate density were analyzed with spectrophotometry and microscopy, respectively. Cold temperature stress had a negative impact on M digitata colonies indicated by decreased photosynthetic efficiency (F-v/F-m), loss of symbiotic dinoflagellates and changes in photosynthetic pigment concentrations. Corals in higher light regimes were more susceptible to cold temperature stress, Moderate cold stress resulted in photoacclimatory responses, but severe cold stress resulted in photodamage, bleaching and increased mortality. Responses to cold temperature stress of M digitata appeared similar to that observed in corals exposed to warmer than normal temperatures, suggesting a common mechanism. The results of this study suggest that corals and coral reefs may also be impacted by exposure to cold as well as warm temperature extremes as climate change occurs.