Recreating the South Sea bubble: Lessons from an experiment in financial history

Major bubble episodes are rare events. In this paper, we examine what factors might cause some asset price bubbles to become very large. We recreate, in a laboratory setting, some of the specific institutional features investors in the South Sea Company faced in 1720. Several factors have been proposed as potentially contributing to one of the greatest periods of asset overvaluation in history: an intricate debt-for-equity swap, deferred payment for these shares, and the possibility of default on the deferred payments. We consider which aspect might have had the most impact in creating the South Sea bubble. The results of the experiment suggest that the company?s attempt to exchange its shares for government debt was the single biggest contributor to the stock price explosion, because of the manner in which the swap affected fundamental value. Issuing new shares with only partial payments required, in conjunction with the debt-equity swap, also had a significant effect on the size of the bubble. Limited contract enforcement, on the other hand, does not appear to have contributed significantly.

Maladies auto-immunes neuromusculaires: diagnostic et prise en charge [Dysimmune neuromuscular disorders: diagnostic challenges and new ways of management].

This review describes some dysimmune neuromuscular disorders and their recent management: syndrome of peripheral nerve hyperexcitability (treatment of cramps, immunosuppressors); Guillain-Barré syndrome (new mechanisms and consensus treatment); chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy (new indication for the use of pulse dexamethasone, new scores of activity); importance of subcutaneous immunoglobulin in multifocal motor neuropathy and of infusions of rituximab in myasthenia gravis; new entities in myositis and their treatment.

Dosimetric aspects of a national survey of diagnostic and interventional radiology in Switzerland.

The effective dose delivered to the patient was determined, by modeling, for 257 types of examinations covering the different modalities of diagnostic and interventional radiology. The basic operational dosimetric quantities considered were obtained from the parameters of the examinations on the basis of dosimetric models. These models required a precise characterization of each examination. The operational dosimetric quantities were converted into doses to organs and effective doses using appropriate conversion factors. The determination of the collective effective dose to the Swiss population requires a number of corrections to account for the variability of several parameters: sensitivity of the detection system, age, gender, and build of the patient. The use of various dosimetric models is illustrated in this paper for a limited number of examination types covering the different radiological modalities, for which the established typical effective doses are given. With regard to individual doses, the study indicated that the average effective doses per type of examination can be classified into three levels: (a) the weakly irradiating examinations (less than 0.1 mSv), which represent 78% of the examinations and 4% of the collective dose, (b) the moderately irradiating examinations (between 0.1 mSv and 10 mSv), which represent 21% of the examinations and 72% of the collective dose, (c) the strongly irradiating examinations (more than 10 mSv), which represent 1% of the examinations and 24% of the collective dose.

Diagnostic INSMED: Cuentagotas S.L.

Modèle de diagnostic C4.1.1 (UPC)

Diagnostic INSMED: COPERSA, S.A.

Modèle de disgnostic C4.1.2 (UPC)

Pyoderma gangrenosum: défi diagnostique et thérapeutique [Pyoderma gangrenosum: diagnostic and therapeutic challenge]

Pyoderma gangrenosum is a rare ulcerative disease associated with inflammatory bowel disease, arthritis or haematological malignancies. The diagnosis of Pyoderma gangrenosum is often delayed while consideration is given to the more likely diagnoses of wound breakdown or bacterial infection. The outcome depends on early diagnosis and on excellent collaboration between the surgical team and the infectious disease specialist. We present two puzzling cases of Pyoderma gangrenosum and discuss the physiopathology, the diagnosis strategy and the management. Le Pyoderma gangrenosum constitue une entité clinique méconnue, se présentant classiquement par des ulcérations cutanées inflammatoires et douloureuses. Le contexte clinique retrouve fréquemment une pathologie inflammatoire digestive, une néoplasie ou une atteinte rhumatologique concomitante. Le diagnostic est trop souvent tardif, après de multiples traitements antibiotiques et chirurgicaux, et nécessite une excellente coordination entre le médecin traitant, les équipes chirurgicales et les spécialistes des maladies infectieuses. Au travers de deux cas spectaculaires, nous rappelons quelques notions de base sur la physiopathologie, la présentation clinique et la prise en charge du Pyoderma gangrenosum.

Développement, implémentation et utilisation pratique d'un score diagnostique [Development, implementation and practical use of a diagnostic score].

In recent years many clinical prediction rules (CPR) have been developed. Before a CPR can be used in clinical practice, different methodical steps are necessary, from the development of the score, the internal and external validation to the impact study. Before using a CPR in daily practice family doctors have to verify how the rules have been developed and whether this has been done in a population similar to the population in which they would use them. The aim of this paper is to describe the development of a CPR, and to discuss advantages and risks related to the use of CPR in order to help family doctors in their choice of scores for use in their daily practice.

Diagnostic Performances of 18F-FDG Positron Emission Tomography in Large Vessels Vasculitis: Meta-analysis

Toperform a meta-analysis of FDG-PET performances in the diagnosis of largevessels vasculitis (Giant Cell Arteritis (GCA) associated or not withPolymyalgia Rheumatica(PMR), Takayasu). Materials and methods : The MEDLINE,Cochrane Library, Embase were searched for relevant original articlesdescribing FDG-PET for vasculitis assessment, using MesH terms ("GiantCell Arteritis or Vasculitis" AND "PET"). Criteria for inclusionwere:(1)FDG-PET for diagnosis of vasculitis(2)American College of Rheumatologycriteria as reference standard(3)control group. After data extraction, analyseswere performed using a random-effects model. Results : Of 184 citations(database search and references screening),70 articles were reviewed of which12 eligible studies were extracted (sensitivity range from 32% to 97%). 7studies fulfilled all inclusion criteria. Owing to overlapping population, 1study was excluded. Statistical heterogeneity justified the random-effectsmodel. Pooled 6 studies analysis(116 vasculitis,224 controls) showed a 81%sensitivity (95%CI:70-89%);a 89% specificity (95%CI:77-95%);a 85%PPV(95%CI:63-95%); a 90% NPV(95%CI:79-95%);a 7.1 positive LR(95%CI:3.4-14.9); a0.2 negative LR(95%CI:0.14-0.35) and 90.1 DOR(95%CI: 18.6-437). Conclusion :FDG-PET has good diagnostic performances in the detection of large vesselsvasculitis. Its promising role could be extended to follow up patients undertreatment, but further studies are needed to confirm this possibility.

European Association of Veterinary Diagnostic Imaging : 4th European conferece : matkakertomus

Mirja Ruohoniemi

Diagnostic value of vestibulo-ocular reflex parameters in the detection and characterization of labyrinthine lesions.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the power of various parameters of the vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) in detecting unilateral peripheral vestibular dysfunction and in characterizing certain inner ear pathologies. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective study of consecutive ambulatory patients presenting with acute onset of peripheral vertigo and spontaneous nystagmus. SETTING: Tertiary referral center. PATIENTS: Seventy-four patients (40 females, 34 males) and 22 normal subjects (11 females, 11 males) were included in the study. Patients were classified in three main diagnoses: vestibular neuritis: 40; viral labyrinthitis: 22; Meniere's disease: 12. METHODS: The VOR function was evaluated by standard caloric and impulse rotary tests (velocity step). A mathematical model of vestibular function was used to characterize the VOR response to rotational stimulation. The diagnostic value of the different VOR parameters was assessed by uni- and multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: In univariable analysis, caloric asymmetry emerged as the most powerful VOR parameter in identifying unilateral vestibular deficit, with a boundary limit set at 20%. In multivariable analysis, the combination of caloric asymmetry and rotational time constant asymmetry significantly improved the discriminatory power over caloric alone (p<0.0001) and produced a detection score with a correct classification of 92.4%. In discriminating labyrinthine diseases, different combinations of the VOR parameters were obtained for each diagnosis (p<0.003) supporting that the VOR characteristics differ between the three inner ear disorders. However, the clinical usefulness of these characteristics in separating the pathologies was limited. CONCLUSION: We propose a powerful logistic model combining the indices of caloric and time constant asymmetries to detect a peripheral vestibular loss, with an accuracy of 92.4%. Based on vestibular data only, the discrimination between the different inner ear diseases is statistically possible, which supports different pathophysiologic changes in labyrinthine pathologies.

Cardiac paraganglioma: diagnostic work up and review of the literature.

Paraganglioma of the heart are potentially invasive, highly vascularized tumors for which complete resection may be curative. Derived from the cardiac wall in most instances, resectability can be assessed after integration of the data provided by MRI in T2 sequence, and coronarography. A fully documented case of a large cardiac pheochromocytoma of the left atrium and AV groove is reported and the pertinent literature on the subject is here presented.