1000 resultados para dengue modeling
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INTRODUCTION: The diagnosis of dengue and the differentiation between primary and secondary infections are important for monitoring the spread of the epidemic and identifying the risk of severe forms of the disease. The detection of immunoglobulin (Ig)M and IgG antibodies is the main technique for the laboratory diagnosis of dengue. The present study assessed the application of a rapid test for dengue concerning detection of new cases, reinfection recognition, and estimation of the epidemic attack rate. METHODS: This was a retrospective, cross-sectional, descriptive study on dengue using the Fortaleza Health Municipal Department database. The results from 1,530 tested samples, from 2005-2006, were compared with data from epidemiological studies of dengue outbreaks in 1996, 2003, and 2010. RESULTS: The rapid test confirmed 52% recent infections in the tested patients with clinical suspicion of dengue: 40% detected using IgM and 12% of new cases using IgG in the non-reactive IgM results. The positive IgM plus negative IgG (IgM+ plus IgG-) results showed that 38% of those patients had a recent primary dengue infection, while the positive IgG plus either positive or negative IgM (IgG+ plus IgM+/-) results indicated that 62% had dengue for at least a second time (recent secondary infections). This proportion of reinfections permitted us to estimate the attack rate as >62% of the population sample. CONCLUSIONS: The rapid test for dengue has enhanced our ability to detect new infections and to characterize them into primary and secondary infections, permitting the estimation of the minimal attack rate for a population during an outbreak.
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INTRODUCTION: The precise identification of the genetic variants of the dengue virus is important to understand its dispersion and virulence patterns and to identify the strains responsible for epidemic outbreaks. This study investigated the genetic variants of the capsid-premembrane junction region fragment in the dengue virus serotypes 1 and 2 (DENV1-2). METHODS: Samples from 11 municipalities in the State of Paraná, Brazil, were provided by the Central Laboratory of Paraná. They were isolated from the cell culture line C6/36 (Aedes albopictus) and were positive for indirect immunofluorescence. Ribonucleic acid (RNA) extracted from these samples was submitted to the reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and nested PCR. RESULTS: RT-PCR revealed that 4 of the samples were co-infected with both serotypes. The isolated DENV-1 sequences were 95-100% similar to the sequences of other serotype 1 strains deposited in GenBank. Similarly, the isolated DENV-2 sequences were 98-100% similar to other serotype 2 sequences in GenBank. According to our neighbor-joining tree, all strains obtained in this study belonged to genotype V of DENV-1. The DENV-2 strains, by contrast, belonged to the American/Asian genotypes. CONCLUSIONS: The monitoring of circulating strains is an important tool to detect the migration of virus subtypes involved in dengue epidemics.
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INTRODUCTION: Manaus, the capital city of the state of Amazon with nearly 2 million inhabitants, is located in the middle of the Amazon rain forest and has suffered dengue outbreaks since 1998. METHODS: In this study, blood samples were investigated using reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), aimed at identifying dengue virus serotypes. RESULTS: Acute phase sera from 432 patients were tested for the presence of dengue virus. Out of the 432 patients, 137 (31.3%) were found to be positive. All the four dengue virus serotypes were observed. CONCLUSIONS: The simultaneous circulation of the four dengue serotypes is described for the first time in Manaus and in Brazil.
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A potentially renewable and sustainable source of energy is the chemical energy associated with solvation of salts. Mixing of two aqueous streams with different saline concentrations is spontaneous and releases energy. The global theoretically obtainable power from salinity gradient energy due to World’s rivers discharge into the oceans has been estimated to be within the range of 1.4-2.6 TW. Reverse electrodialysis (RED) is one of the emerging, membrane-based, technologies for harvesting the salinity gradient energy. A common RED stack is composed by alternately-arranged cation- and anion-exchange membranes, stacked between two electrodes. The compartments between the membranes are alternately fed with concentrated (e.g., sea water) and dilute (e.g., river water) saline solutions. Migration of the respective counter-ions through the membranes leads to ionic current between the electrodes, where an appropriate redox pair converts the chemical salinity gradient energy into electrical energy. Given the importance of the need for new sources of energy for power generation, the present study aims at better understanding and solving current challenges, associated with the RED stack design, fluid dynamics, ionic mass transfer and long-term RED stack performance with natural saline solutions as feedwaters. Chronopotentiometry was used to determinate diffusion boundary layer (DBL) thickness from diffusion relaxation data and the flow entrance effects on mass transfer were found to avail a power generation increase in RED stacks. Increasing the linear flow velocity also leads to a decrease of DBL thickness but on the cost of a higher pressure drop. Pressure drop inside RED stacks was successfully simulated by the developed mathematical model, in which contribution of several pressure drops, that until now have not been considered, was included. The effect of each pressure drop on the RED stack performance was identified and rationalized and guidelines for planning and/or optimization of RED stacks were derived. The design of new profiled membranes, with a chevron corrugation structure, was proposed using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling. The performance of the suggested corrugation geometry was compared with the already existing ones, as well as with the use of conductive and non-conductive spacers. According to the estimations, use of chevron structures grants the highest net power density values, at the best compromise between the mass transfer coefficient and the pressure drop values. Finally, long-term experiments with natural waters were performed, during which fouling was experienced. For the first time, 2D fluorescence spectroscopy was used to monitor RED stack performance, with a dedicated focus on following fouling on ion-exchange membrane surfaces. To extract relevant information from fluorescence spectra, parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) was performed. Moreover, the information obtained was then used to predict net power density, stack electric resistance and pressure drop by multivariate statistical models based on projection to latent structures (PLS) modeling. The use in such models of 2D fluorescence data, containing hidden, but extractable by PARAFAC, information about fouling on membrane surfaces, considerably improved the models fitting to the experimental data.
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INTRODUCTION: To analyze the liver dysfunction and evolution of signs and symptoms in adult dengue patients during a two-month follow-up period. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted in Campos dos Goytacazes, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from January to July, 2008. The evolution of laboratory and clinical manifestations of 90 adult dengue patients was evaluated in five scheduled visits within a two-month follow-up period. Twenty controls were enrolled for the analysis of liver function. Patients with hepatitis B, hepatitis C, those known to be human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seropositive and pregnant women were excluded from the study. RESULTS: At the end of the second month following diagnosis, we observed that symptoms persisted in 33.3% (30/90) of dengue patients. We also observed that, 57.7% (15/26) of the symptoms persisted at the end of the second month. The most persistent symptoms were arthralgia, fatigue, weakness, adynamia, anorexia, taste alteration, and hair loss. Prior dengue virus (DENV) infection did not predispose patients to a longer duration of symptoms. Among hepatic functions, transaminases had the most remarkable elevation and in some cases remained elevated up to the second month after the disease onset. Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels overcame aspartate aminotransferase (AST) during the convalescent period. Male patients were more severely affected than females. CONCLUSIONS: Dengue fever may present a wide number of symptoms and elevated liver transaminases at the end of the second month.
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The aim of this work project is to find a model that is able to accurately forecast the daily Value-at-Risk for PSI-20 Index, independently of the market conditions, in order to expand empirical literature for the Portuguese stock market. Hence, two subsamples, representing more and less volatile periods, were modeled through unconditional and conditional volatility models (because it is what drives returns). All models were evaluated through Kupiec’s and Christoffersen’s tests, by comparing forecasts with actual results. Using an out-of-sample of 204 observations, it was found that a GARCH(1,1) is an accurate model for our purposes.
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IntroductionIn Manaus, the first autochthonous cases of dengue fever were registered in 1998. Since then, dengue cases were diagnosed by the isolation of viruses 1, 2, 3, and 4.MethodsOne hundred eighty-seven mosquitoes were collected with BioGents (BG)-Sentinel traps in 15 urban residential areas in the Northern Zone of Manaus and processed by molecular tests.ResultsInfections with dengue viruses 1, 2, 3, and 4 and a case of co-infection with dengue viruses 2 and 3 were identified.ConclusionsThese findings corroborate the detection of dengue in clinical samples and reinforce the need for epidemiological surveillance by the Health authorities.
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Organizations are undergoing serious difficulties to retain talent. Authors argue that Talent Management (TM) practices create beneficial outcomes for individuals and organizations. However, there is no research on the leaders’ role in the functioning of these practices. This study examines how LMX and role modeling influence the impact that TM practices have on employees’ trust in their organizations and retention. The analysis of two questionnaires (Nt1=175; Nt2=107) indicated that TM only reduced turnover intentions, via an increase in trust in the organization, when role modeling was high and not when it was low. Therefore, we can say that leaders are crucial in the TM context, and in sustaining a competitive advantage for organizations.
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Introduction Dengue is prevalent in many tropical and sub-tropical regions. The clinical diagnosis of dengue is still complex, and not much data are available. This work aimed at assessing the diagnostic accuracy of the tourniquet test in patients with suspected dengue infection and its positivity in different classifications of this disease as reported to the Information System for Notifiable Disease in Belo Horizonte, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil between 2001 and 2006. Methods Cross-section analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of the tourniquet test for dengue, using IgM-anti-DENV ELISA as a gold standard. Results We selected 9,836 suspected cases, of which 41.1% were confirmed to be dengue. Classic dengue was present in 95.8%, dengue with complications in 2.5% and dengue hemorrhagic fever in 1.7%. The tourniquet test was positive in 16.9% of classic dengue cases, 61.7% of dengue cases with complications and 82.9% of cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever. The sensitivity and specificity of the tourniquet test were 19.1% and 86.4%, respectively. Conclusions A positive tourniquet test can be a valuable tool to support diagnosis of dengue where laboratory tests are not available. However, the absence of a positive test should not be read as the absence of infection. In addition, the tourniquet test was demonstrated to be an indicator of dengue severity.
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Introduction The prognosis of dengue depends on early diagnosis and treatment, which can help prevent severe forms whose characteristics were evaluated here. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted involving dengue cases in Vitória, State of Espírito Santo, Brazil, in 2011. Results Two health regions registered 56.3% of 371 cases of severe dengue. Of these cases, 21.3% presented with dengue hemorrhagic fever. There were associations between dengue hemorrhagic fever with younger ages and a longer time before receiving care. Conclusions There was a greater involvement of dengue hemorrhagic fever in young people. Delay in care, poor urban quality and high endemicity were identified as possible risk factors for dengue severity.
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Introduction This study aimed to describe the clinical spectrum of dengue in children and adolescents from a hyperendemic region who were admitted for hospitalization. Methods A retrospective study was conducted on patients diagnosed with dengue infection upon admission to a reference center in Fortaleza, Brazil. Results Of the 84 patients included, 42 underwent confirmatory testing. The main symptoms were fever, abdominal pain and vomiting. The median level of serum aspartate aminotransferase was 143.5±128mg/dL. Conclusions A peculiar clinical profile was evident among children and adolescents with dengue infection in a reference center in northeast Brazil, including gastrointestinal symptoms and liver involvement.
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Here, we report a case of Ludwig's angina, which required surgery because of toothache. The patient had dengue and severe thrombocytopenia as confirmed by clinical and laboratory diagnoses. However, dengue is not included among the predisposing factors for Ludwig's angina.