A review of travel time estimation and forecasting for advanced traveler information systems

Providing on line travel time information to commuters has become an important issue for Advanced Traveler Information Systems and Route Guidance Systems in the past years, due to the increasing traffic volume and congestion in the road networks. Travel time is one of the most useful traffic variables because it is more intuitive than other traffic variables such as flow, occupancy or density, and is useful for travelers in decision making. The aim of this paper is to present a global view of the literature on the modeling of travel time, introducing crucial concepts and giving a thorough classification of the existing tech- niques. Most of the attention will focus on travel time estimation and travel time prediction, which are generally not presented together. The main goals of these models, the study areas and methodologies used to carry out these tasks will be further explored and categorized.

The interplay of localization and interactions in quantum many-body systems

Disorder and interactions both play crucial roles in quantum transport. Decades ago, Mott showed that electron-electron interactions can lead to insulating behavior in materials that conventional band theory predicts to be conducting. Soon thereafter, Anderson demonstrated that disorder can localize a quantum particle through the wave interference phenomenon of Anderson localization. Although interactions and disorder both separately induce insulating behavior, the interplay of these two ingredients is subtle and often leads to surprising behavior at the periphery of our current understanding. Modern experiments probe these phenomena in a variety of contexts (e.g. disordered superconductors, cold atoms, photonic waveguides, etc.); thus, theoretical and numerical advancements are urgently needed. In this thesis, we report progress on understanding two contexts in which the interplay of disorder and interactions is especially important.

The first is the so-called “dirty” or random boson problem. In the past decade, a strong-disorder renormalization group (SDRG) treatment by Altman, Kafri, Polkovnikov, and Refael has raised the possibility of a new unstable fixed point governing the superfluid-insulator transition in the one-dimensional dirty boson problem. This new critical behavior may take over from the weak-disorder criticality of Giamarchi and Schulz when disorder is sufficiently strong. We analytically determine the scaling of the superfluid susceptibility at the strong-disorder fixed point and connect our analysis to recent Monte Carlo simulations by Hrahsheh and Vojta. We then shift our attention to two dimensions and use a numerical implementation of the SDRG to locate the fixed point governing the superfluid-insulator transition there. We identify several universal properties of this transition, which are fully independent of the microscopic features of the disorder.

The second focus of this thesis is the interplay of localization and interactions in systems with high energy density (i.e., far from the usual low energy limit of condensed matter physics). Recent theoretical and numerical work indicates that localization can survive in this regime, provided that interactions are sufficiently weak. Stronger interactions can destroy localization, leading to a so-called many-body localization transition. This dynamical phase transition is relevant to questions of thermalization in isolated quantum systems: it separates a many-body localized phase, in which localization prevents transport and thermalization, from a conducting (“ergodic”) phase in which the usual assumptions of quantum statistical mechanics hold. Here, we present evidence that many-body localization also occurs in quasiperiodic systems that lack true disorder.

Cooperative properties of lipid bilayers : collective director fluctuations and the effects of hydrophobic mismatch in protein/lipid membrane systems

Cooperative director fluctuations in lipid bilayers have been postulated for many years. ^2H-NMR T_1^(-1), T_(1P)^(-1) , and T_2^(-1); measurements have been used identify these motions and to determine the origin of increased slow bilayer motion upon addition of unlike lipids or proteins to a pure lipid bilayer.

The contribution of cooperative director fluctuations to NMR relaxation in lipid bilayers has been expressed mathematically using the approach of Doane et al.^1 and Pace and Chan.^2 The T_2^(-1)’s of pure dimyristoyllecithin (DML) bilayers deuterated at the 2, 9 and 10, and all positions on both lipid hydrocarbon chains have been measured. Several characteristics of these measurements indicate the presence of cooperative director fluctuations. First of all, T_2^(-1) exhibits a linear dependence on S2/CD. Secondly, T_2^(-1) varies across the ^2H-NMR powder pattern as sin^2 (2, β), where , β is the angle between the average bilayer director and the external magnetic field. Furthermore, these fluctuations are restricted near the lecithin head group suggesting that the head group does not participate in these motions but, rather, anchors the hydrocarbon chains in the bilayer.

T_2^(-1)has been measured for selectively deuterated liquid crystalline DML hilayers to which a host of other lipids and proteins have been added. The T_2^(-1) of the DML bilayer is found to increase drastically when chlorophyll a (chl a) and Gramicidin A' (GA') are added to the bilayer. Both these molecules interfere with the lecithin head group spacing in the bilayer. Molecules such as myristic acid, distearoyllecithin (DSL), phytol, and cholesterol, whose hydrocarbon regions are quite different from DML but which have small,neutral polar head groups, leave cooperative fluctuations in the DML bilayer unchanged.

The effect of chl a on cooperative fluctuations in the DML bilayer has been examined in detail using ^2H-NMR T_1^(-1), T_(1P)^(-1) , and T_2^(-1); measurements. Cooperative fluctuations have been modelled using the continuum theory of the nematic state of liquid crystals. Chl a is found to decrease both the correlation length and the elastic constants in the DML bilayer.

A mismatch between the hydrophobic length of a lipid bilayer and that of an added protein has also been found to change the cooperative properties of the lecithin bilayer. Hydrophobic mismatch has been studied in a series GA' / lecithin bilayers. The dependence of 2H-NMR order parameters and relaxation rates on GA' concentration has been measured in selectively deuterated DML, dipalmitoyllecithin (DPL), and DSL systems. Order parameters, cooperative lengths, and elastic constants of the DML bilayer are most disrupted by GA', while the DSL bilayer is the least perturbed by GA'. Thus, it is concluded that the hydrophobic length of GA' best matches that of the DSL bilayer. Preliminary Raman spectroscopy and Differential Scanning Calorimetry experiments of GA' /lecithin systems support this conclusion. Accommodation of hydrophobic mismatch is used to rationalize the absence of H_(II) phase formation in GA' /DML systems and the observation of H_(II) phase in GA' /DPL and GA' /DSL systems.

1. J. W. Doane and D. L. Johnson, Chem. Phy3. Lett., 6, 291-295 (1970). 2. R. J. Pace and S. I. Chan, J. Chem. Phy3., 16, 4217-4227 (1982).

Community sense and response systems

The proliferation of smartphones and other internet-enabled, sensor-equipped consumer devices enables us to sense and act upon the physical environment in unprecedented ways. This thesis considers Community Sense-and-Response (CSR) systems, a new class of web application for acting on sensory data gathered from participants' personal smart devices. The thesis describes how rare events can be reliably detected using a decentralized anomaly detection architecture that performs client-side anomaly detection and server-side event detection. After analyzing this decentralized anomaly detection approach, the thesis describes how weak but spatially structured events can be detected, despite significant noise, when the events have a sparse representation in an alternative basis. Finally, the thesis describes how the statistical models needed for client-side anomaly detection may be learned efficiently, using limited space, via coresets.

The Caltech Community Seismic Network (CSN) is a prototypical example of a CSR system that harnesses accelerometers in volunteers' smartphones and consumer electronics. Using CSN, this thesis presents the systems and algorithmic techniques to design, build and evaluate a scalable network for real-time awareness of spatial phenomena such as dangerous earthquakes.

An enactive and dynamical systems theory account of dyadic relationships

Many social relationships are a locus of struggle and suffering, either at the individual or interactional level. In this paper we explore why this is the case and suggest a modeling approach for dyadic interactions and the well-being of the participants. To this end we bring together an enactive approach to self with dynamical systems theory. Our basic assumption is that the quality of any social interaction or relationship fundamentally depends on the nature and constitution of the individuals engaged in these interactions. From an enactive perspective the self is conceived as an embodied and socially enacted autonomous system striving to maintain an identity. This striving involves a basic two-fold goal: the ability to exist as an individual in one's own right, while also being open to and affected by others. In terms of dynamical systems theory one can thus consider the individual self as a self-other organized system represented by a phase space spanned by the dimensions of distinction and participation, where attractors can be defined. Based on two everyday examples of dyadic relationship we propose a simple model of relationship dynamics, in which struggle or well-being in the dyad is analyzed in terms of movements of dyadic states that are in tension or in harmony with individually developed attractors. Our model predicts that relationships can be sustained when the dyad develops a new joint attractor toward which dyadic states tend to move, and well-being when this attractor is in balance with the individuals' attractors. We outline how this can inspire research on psychotherapy. The psychotherapy process itself provides a setting that supports clients to become aware how they fare with regards to the two-fold norm of distinction and participation and develop, through active engagement between client (or couple) and therapist, strategies to co-negotiate their self-organization.

Sustainable livelihood approach of prawn production and marketing systems in Mymensingh, Bangladesh

An investigation was carried out in Phulpur upazila, Mymensingh to examine the current production practices of freshwater giant prawn, Macrobrachium rosenbergii and its marketing systems with sustainable livelihood approach. The livelihoods of a considerable number of rural poor are associated with prawn production in Phulpur upazila. Based on a sample of 50 farmers, about 94% farmers were found to culture prawn with fish in their ponds. Only 4% and 2% farmers were found to culture prawn-fish-dike crops and only prawn respectively. Prawn marketing is almost exclusively a preserve of the private sector where the livelihoods of a large number of people are associated with its distribution and marketing systems. The market chain from producers to consumers passes through a number of intermediaries. About 40% of the produced prawns are exported and the rest 60% are sold to local markets. The price of prawn depends on quality, size and weight. The average farm-gate price of prawn varied from Tk. 110 to 160/kg, whereas it's [sic] market price varied from Tk. 150 to 350/kg. Most of the farmers and traders have improved their socio-economic conditions through prawn farming and marketing activities. However, concerns arise about the long-term sustainability of prawn farming and marketing systems due to lack of technical knowledge of prawn farming, poor road and transport facilities, higher transport cost, poor supply of ice, lack of cash and credit facilities. It is therefore essential to provide institutional and organizational support and credit facilities for sustainable prawn production and marketing systems.

Breathers and thermal relaxation as a temporal process: A possible way to detect breathers in experimental situations

Breather stability and longevity in thermally relaxing nonlinear arrays is investigated under the scrutiny of the analysis and tools employed for time series and state reconstruction of a dynamical system. We briefly review the methods used in the analysis and characterize a breather in terms of the results obtained with such methods. Our present work focuses on spontaneously appearing breathers in thermal Fermi-Pasta-Ulam arrays but we believe that the conclusions are general enough to describe many other related situations; the particular case described in detail is presented as another example of systems where three incommensurable frequencies dominate their chaotic dynamics (reminiscent of the Ruelle-Takens scenario for the appearance of chaotic behavior in nonlinear systems). This characterization may also be of great help for the discovery of breathers in experimental situations where the temporal evolution of a local variable (like the site energy) is the only available/measured data. © 2005 American Institute of Physics.

FPGA, physics-based modeling of IGBT and pin diode for hardware co-simulation of complex power electronic converters and systems

This paper presents the steps and the challenges for implementing analytical, physics-based models for the insulated gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) and the PIN diode in hardware and more specifically in field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). The models can be utilised in hardware co-simulation of complex power electronic converters and entire power systems in order to reduce the simulation time without compromising the accuracy of results. Such a co-simulation allows reliable prediction of the system's performance as well as accurate investigation of the power devices' behaviour during operation. Ultimately, this will allow application-specific optimisation of the devices' structure, circuit topologies as well as enhancement of the control and/or protection schemes.

Using Special-Purpose Computing to Examine Chaotic Behavior in Nonlinear Mappings

Studying chaotic behavior in nonlinear systems requires numerous computations in order to simulate the behavior of such systems. The Standard Map Machine was designed and implemented as a special computer for performing these intensive computations with high-speed and high-precision. Its impressive performance is due to its simple architecture specialized to the numerical computations required of nonlinear systems. This report discusses the design and implementation of the Standard Map Machine and its use in the study of nonlinear mappings; in particular, the study of the standard map.

Design and implementation of robust systems for secure malware detection

Malicious software (malware) have significantly increased in terms of number and effectiveness during the past years. Until 2006, such software were mostly used to disrupt network infrastructures or to show coders’ skills. Nowadays, malware constitute a very important source of economical profit, and are very difficult to detect. Thousands of novel variants are released every day, and modern obfuscation techniques are used to ensure that signature-based anti-malware systems are not able to detect such threats. This tendency has also appeared on mobile devices, with Android being the most targeted platform. To counteract this phenomenon, a lot of approaches have been developed by the scientific community that attempt to increase the resilience of anti-malware systems. Most of these approaches rely on machine learning, and have become very popular also in commercial applications. However, attackers are now knowledgeable about these systems, and have started preparing their countermeasures. This has lead to an arms race between attackers and developers. Novel systems are progressively built to tackle the attacks that get more and more sophisticated. For this reason, a necessity grows for the developers to anticipate the attackers’ moves. This means that defense systems should be built proactively, i.e., by introducing some security design principles in their development. The main goal of this work is showing that such proactive approach can be employed on a number of case studies. To do so, I adopted a global methodology that can be divided in two steps. First, understanding what are the vulnerabilities of current state-of-the-art systems (this anticipates the attacker’s moves). Then, developing novel systems that are robust to these attacks, or suggesting research guidelines with which current systems can be improved. This work presents two main case studies, concerning the detection of PDF and Android malware. The idea is showing that a proactive approach can be applied both on the X86 and mobile world. The contributions provided on this two case studies are multifolded. With respect to PDF files, I first develop novel attacks that can empirically and optimally evade current state-of-the-art detectors. Then, I propose possible solutions with which it is possible to increase the robustness of such detectors against known and novel attacks. With respect to the Android case study, I first show how current signature-based tools and academically developed systems are weak against empirical obfuscation attacks, which can be easily employed without particular knowledge of the targeted systems. Then, I examine a possible strategy to build a machine learning detector that is robust against both empirical obfuscation and optimal attacks. Finally, I will show how proactive approaches can be also employed to develop systems that are not aimed at detecting malware, such as mobile fingerprinting systems. In particular, I propose a methodology to build a powerful mobile fingerprinting system, and examine possible attacks with which users might be able to evade it, thus preserving their privacy. To provide the aforementioned contributions, I co-developed (with the cooperation of the researchers at PRALab and Ruhr-Universität Bochum) various systems: a library to perform optimal attacks against machine learning systems (AdversariaLib), a framework for automatically obfuscating Android applications, a system to the robust detection of Javascript malware inside PDF files (LuxOR), a robust machine learning system to the detection of Android malware, and a system to fingerprint mobile devices. I also contributed to develop Android PRAGuard, a dataset containing a lot of empirical obfuscation attacks against the Android platform. Finally, I entirely developed Slayer NEO, an evolution of a previous system to the detection of PDF malware. The results attained by using the aforementioned tools show that it is possible to proactively build systems that predict possible evasion attacks. This suggests that a proactive approach is crucial to build systems that provide concrete security against general and evasion attacks.

Granularity and disaggregation in compositional modelling with applications to ecological systems

J. Keppens and Q. Shen. Granularity and disaggregation in compositional modelling with applications to ecological systems. Applied Intelligence, 25(3):269-292, 2006.

Dynamical Instabilities and Deterministic Chaos in Ballistic Electron Motion in Semiconductor Superlattices

We consider the motion of ballistic electrons within a superlattice miniband under the influence of an alternating electric field. We show that the interaction of electrons with the self-consistent electromagnetic field generated by the electron current may lead to the transition from regular to chaotic dynamics. We estimate the conditions for the experimental observation of this deterministic chaos and discuss the similarities of the superlattice system with the other condensed matter and quantum optical systems.

The Sensor Network Workbench: Towards Functional Specification, Verification and Deployment of Constrained Distributed Systems

As the commoditization of sensing, actuation and communication hardware increases, so does the potential for dynamically tasked sense and respond networked systems (i.e., Sensor Networks or SNs) to replace existing disjoint and inflexible special-purpose deployments (closed-circuit security video, anti-theft sensors, etc.). While various solutions have emerged to many individual SN-centric challenges (e.g., power management, communication protocols, role assignment), perhaps the largest remaining obstacle to widespread SN deployment is that those who wish to deploy, utilize, and maintain a programmable Sensor Network lack the programming and systems expertise to do so. The contributions of this thesis centers on the design, development and deployment of the SN Workbench (snBench). snBench embodies an accessible, modular programming platform coupled with a flexible and extensible run-time system that, together, support the entire life-cycle of distributed sensory services. As it is impossible to find a one-size-fits-all programming interface, this work advocates the use of tiered layers of abstraction that enable a variety of high-level, domain specific languages to be compiled to a common (thin-waist) tasking language; this common tasking language is statically verified and can be subsequently re-translated, if needed, for execution on a wide variety of hardware platforms. snBench provides: (1) a common sensory tasking language (Instruction Set Architecture) powerful enough to express complex SN services, yet simple enough to be executed by highly constrained resources with soft, real-time constraints, (2) a prototype high-level language (and corresponding compiler) to illustrate the utility of the common tasking language and the tiered programming approach in this domain, (3) an execution environment and a run-time support infrastructure that abstract a collection of heterogeneous resources into a single virtual Sensor Network, tasked via this common tasking language, and (4) novel formal methods (i.e., static analysis techniques) that verify safety properties and infer implicit resource constraints to facilitate resource allocation for new services. This thesis presents these components in detail, as well as two specific case-studies: the use of snBench to integrate physical and wireless network security, and the use of snBench as the foundation for semester-long student projects in a graduate-level Software Engineering course.

Flexible and robust run-time configuration for self-managing systems

This paper describes a methodology for deploying flexible dynamic configuration into embedded systems whilst preserving the reliability advantages of static systems. The methodology is based on the concept of decision points (DP) which are strategically placed to achieve fine-grained distribution of self-management logic to meet application-specific requirements. DP logic can be changed easily, and independently of the host component, enabling self-management behavior to be deferred beyond the point of system deployment. A transparent Dynamic Wrapper mechanism (DW) automatically detects and handles problems arising from the evaluation of self-management logic within each DP and ensures that the dynamic aspects of the system collapse down to statically defined default behavior to ensure safety and correctness despite failures. Dynamic context management contributes to flexibility, and removes the need for design-time binding of context providers and consumers, thus facilitating run-time composition and incremental component upgrade.