Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses

Accurate knowledge of the location and magnitude of ocean heat content (OHC) variability and change is essential for understanding the processes that govern decadal variations in surface temperature, quantifying changes in the planetary energy budget, and developing constraints on the transient climate response to external forcings. We present an overview of the temporal and spatial characteristics of OHC variability and change as represented by an ensemble of dynamical and statistical ocean reanalyses (ORAs). Spatial maps of the 0–300 m layer show large regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans where the interannual variability of the ensemble mean exceeds ensemble spread, indicating that OHC variations are well-constrained by the available observations over the period 1993–2009. At deeper levels, the ORAs are less well-constrained by observations with the largest differences across the ensemble mostly associated with areas of high eddy kinetic energy, such as the Southern Ocean and boundary current regions. Spatial patterns of OHC change for the period 1997–2009 show good agreement in the upper 300 m and are characterized by a strong dipole pattern in the Pacific Ocean. There is less agreement in the patterns of change at deeper levels, potentially linked to differences in the representation of ocean dynamics, such as water mass formation processes. However, the Atlantic and Southern Oceans are regions in which many ORAs show widespread warming below 700 m over the period 1997–2009. Annual time series of global and hemispheric OHC change for 0–700 m show the largest spread for the data sparse Southern Hemisphere and a number of ORAs seem to be subject to large initialization ‘shock’ over the first few years. In agreement with previous studies, a number of ORAs exhibit enhanced ocean heat uptake below 300 and 700 m during the mid-1990s or early 2000s. The ORA ensemble mean (±1 standard deviation) of rolling 5-year trends in full-depth OHC shows a relatively steady heat uptake of approximately 0.9 ± 0.8 W m−2 (expressed relative to Earth’s surface area) between 1995 and 2002, which reduces to about 0.2 ± 0.6 W m−2 between 2004 and 2006, in qualitative agreement with recent analysis of Earth’s energy imbalance. There is a marked reduction in the ensemble spread of OHC trends below 300 m as the Argo profiling float observations become available in the early 2000s. In general, we suggest that ORAs should be treated with caution when employed to understand past ocean warming trends—especially when considering the deeper ocean where there is little in the way of observational constraints. The current work emphasizes the need to better observe the deep ocean, both for providing observational constraints for future ocean state estimation efforts and also to develop improved models and data assimilation methods.

Late Quaternary environmental change in the interior South American tropics: new insight from leaf wax stable isotopes

Stable isotope analysis of leaf waxes in a sediment core from Laguna La Gaiba, a shallow lake located at the Bolivian margin of the Pantanal wetlands, provides new perspective on vegetation and climate change in the lowland interior tropics of South America over the past 40,000 years. The carbon isotopic compositions (δ13C) of long-chain n-alkanes reveal large shifts between C3-and C4-dominated vegetation communities since the last glacial period, consistent with landscape reconstructions generated with pollen data from the same sediment core. Leaf wax δ13C values during the last glacial period reflect an open landscape composed of C4grasses and C3herbs from 41–20ka. A peak in C4abundance during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21ka) suggests drier or more seasonal conditions relative to the earlier glacial period, while the development of a C3-dominated forest community after 20 ka points to increased humidity during the last deglaciation. Within the Holocene, large changes in the abundance of C4 vegetation indicate a transition from drier or more seasonal conditions during the early/mid-Holocene to wetter conditions in the late Holocene coincident with increasing austral summer insolation. Strong negative correlations between leaf wax δ13C and δD values over the entire record indicate that the majority of variability in leaf wax δD at this site can be explained by variability in the magnitude of biosynthetic fractionation by different vegetation types rather than changes in meteoric water δD signatures. However, positive δD deviations from the observed δ13C–δD trends are consistent with more enriched source water and drier or more seasonal conditions during the early/mid-Holocene and LGM. Overall, our record adds to evidence of varying influence of glacial boundary conditions and orbital forcing on South American Summer Monsoon precipitation in different regions of the South American tropics. Moreover, the relationships between leaf wax stable isotopes and pollen data observed at this site underscore the complementary nature of pollen and leaf wax δ13C data for reconstructing past vegetation changes and the potentially large effects of such changes on leaf wax δD signatures.

The role of CO2 and dynamic vegetation on the impact of temperate land use change in the HadCM3 coupled climate model

Human induced land-use change (LUC) alters the biogeophysical characteristics of the land surface influencing the surface energy balance. The level of atmospheric CO2 is expected to increase in the coming century and beyond, modifying temperature and precipitation patterns and altering the distribution and physiology of natural vegetation. It is important to constrain how CO2-induced climate and vegetation change may influence the regional extent to which LUC alters climate. This sensitivity study uses the HadCM3 coupled climate model under a range of equilibrium forcings to show that the impact of LUC declines under increasing atmospheric CO2, specifically in temperate and boreal regions. A surface energy balance analysis is used to diagnose how these changes occur. In Northern Hemisphere winter this pattern is attributed in part to the decline in winter snow cover and in the summer due to a reduction in latent cooling with higher levels of CO2. The CO2-induced change in natural vegetation distribution is also shown to play a significant role. Simulations run at elevated CO2 yet present day vegetation show a significantly increased sensitivity to LUC, driven in part by an increase in latent cooling. This study shows that modelling the impact of LUC needs to accurately simulate CO2 driven changes in precipitation and snowfall, and incorporate accurate, dynamic vegetation distribution.

Innovation and change in English teaching in the western provinces of China: the impact of overseas training

In this article we explore issues around the impact of continuing professional development (CPD) for secondary teachers of English offered by an overseas provider through the lens of participants from the Western provinces of China who completed courses at a UK university between 2003 and 2012. We start by offering an overview of English teaching in China. We then report two complementary studies of the same programme. The first aimed for breadth of understanding and involved the collection and analysis of interviews and focus groups discussions with former participants, their teaching colleagues and senior management, as well as classroom observation. The second aimed for depth and drew on data collected from a cohort of 38 teachers on one of the courses, using pre- and post-course surveys; focus group discussions at the end of the course with the whole cohort; and interviews with five of the participants both before they left the UK and again six months later. Evidence is presented for changes in teachers’ philosophies of education directly attributable to participation in the courses; for improved teacher competencies (linguistic, cultural and pedagogical) in the classroom; and for the ways in which returnees are undertaking new roles and responsibilities that exploit their new understandings. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings for both providers and sponsors of CPD for English language teachers.

Interacting effects of change in climate, human population, land use, and water use on biodiversity and ecosystem services

Human population growth and resource use, mediated by changes in climate, land use, and water use, increasingly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services provision. However, impacts of these drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem services are rarely analyzed simultaneously and remain largely unknown. An emerging question is how science can improve the understanding of change in biodiversity and ecosystem service delivery and of potential feedback mechanisms of adaptive governance. We analyzed past and future change in drivers in south-central Sweden. We used the analysis to identify main research challenges and outline important research tasks. Since the 19th century, our study area has experienced substantial and interlinked changes; a 1.6°C temperature increase, rapid population growth, urbanization, and massive changes in land use and water use. Considerable future changes are also projected until the mid-21st century. However, little is known about the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services so far, and this in turn hampers future projections of such effects. Therefore, we urge scientists to explore interdisciplinary approaches designed to investigate change in multiple drivers, underlying mechanisms, and interactions over time, including assessment and analysis of matching-scale data from several disciplines. Such a perspective is needed for science to contribute to adaptive governance by constantly improving the understanding of linked change complexities and their impacts.

Pension scheme redesign and wealth redistribution between the members and sponsor: the USS rule change in October 2011

The redesign of defined benefit pension schemes usually results in a substantial redistribution of wealth between age cohorts of members, pensioners, and the sponsor. This is the first study to quantify the redistributive effects of a rule change by a real world scheme (the Universities Superannuation Scheme, USS) where the sponsor underwrites the pension promise. In October 2011 USS closed its final salary scheme to new members, opened a career average revalued earnings (CARE) section, and moved to ‘cap and share’ contribution rates. We find that the pre-October 2011 scheme was not viable in the long run, while the post-October 2011 scheme is probably viable in the long run, but faces medium term problems. In October 2011 future members of USS lost 65% of their pension wealth (or roughly £100,000 per head), equivalent to a reduction of roughly 11% in their total compensation, while those aged over 57 years lost almost nothing. The riskiness of the pension wealth of future members increased by a third, while the riskiness of the present value of the sponsor’s future contributions reduced by 10%. Finally, the sponsor’s wealth increased by about £32.5 billion, equivalent to a reduction of 26% in their pension costs.

Caries, gender and socio-economic change in the Xavante Indians from Central Brazil

Background: The oral health conditions of indigenous peoples in Amazonia are closely associated with ecological and dietary changes related to interaction with non-Indians. Aim: The study investigated the incidence of caries in an indigenous community from Central Brazil focusing on gender differences. Subjects and methods: The research was conducted among the Xavante Indians and was based on longitudinal data collected in two surveys (1999 and 2004). The study included 128 individuals, 63 (49.2%) males and 65 (50.8%) females, divided in four age brackets (6-12, 13-19, 20-34, 35-60 years of age). The DMFT (decayed, missing and filled teeth) index and incidences (difference between 1999 and 2004) were calculated for each individual. The proportion of incidence was also calculated. Differences in caries risk between gender and age brackets were compared by parametric and non-parametric tests. Results: There were statistically significant differences in relation to caries incidence between age brackets and gender. The greatest incidence was observed in the 20-34 age bracket, which presented 3.30 new decayed teeth, twice the risk of the 6-12 age bracket (p0.01), chosen as reference. While females in most age groups did not show higher risk for caries when compared to males, there was a 4.04-fold risk in the 20-34 age bracket (p0.01). Conclusion: It is concluded that factors related to the social functions of each sex (gender issues) and differential access to information, health services, and education may help to understand the differences observed in the incidence of caries.

Change in Managers’ Conceptions of Human Resources in Organisations : Outcomes of an Intervention

Managers’ conceptions of the importance of human resources are essential for creating ‘attractive workplaces’. This paper examines an intervention method aimed at creating insight among managers in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) concerning the potential of human resources. The intervention method is called Focus Group Attractive Work (FGAW) and was conducted at eight enterprises in Sweden. Based on the analysis, it is concluded that the intervention method seems to be thought-provoking and to facilitate changes in managers’ conceptions of the importance of human resources, albeit to different degrees. 

Initiation into engineering : stability and change in gender orders

This article examines processes of doing gender during the initiation of students into engineering programs at university level in Sweden. The article draws on interviews with students, focusing on their understandings of gender. The aim is to explore difficulties with and challenges to traditional gender roles in an academic male dominated arena, by using theories of doing and undoing gender. The empirical material reveals the initiation period or ‘reception’ as a phenomenon both reinforcing and challenging traditional orders. The attempts to challenge norms meet resistance, revealing two paradoxes and one dilemma. In the first paradox the formal purpose of the reception (inclusion) is partly at odds with its informal consequence (exclusion of deviations). The second paradox concerns the contradictory effects of the reception. Even though the reception ensures participation of women, it reinforces existing hierarchies including gender inequality. This results in a dilemma, since in order to protect individual safety, there is a taboo on harassing women which then reproduces stable gender stereotypes. So while harassment taints the respect senior students must earn during the reception, the fact that female students exist in the engineering field challenges the established order and opens the way for change.

Machine Learning Algorithms in Heavy Process Manufacturing

In a global economy, manufacturers mainly compete with cost efficiency of production, as the price of raw materials are similar worldwide. Heavy industry has two big issues to deal with. On the one hand there is lots of data which needs to be analyzed in an effective manner, and on the other hand making big improvements via investments in cooperate structure or new machinery is neither economically nor physically viable. Machine learning offers a promising way for manufacturers to address both these problems as they are in an excellent position to employ learning techniques with their massive resource of historical production data. However, choosing modelling a strategy in this setting is far from trivial and this is the objective of this article. The article investigates characteristics of the most popular classifiers used in industry today. Support Vector Machines, Multilayer Perceptron, Decision Trees, Random Forests, and the meta-algorithms Bagging and Boosting are mainly investigated in this work. Lessons from real-world implementations of these learners are also provided together with future directions when different learners are expected to perform well. The importance of feature selection and relevant selection methods in an industrial setting are further investigated. Performance metrics have also been discussed for the sake of completion.

The stakeholders‟ involvement in the process of building and maintaining a destination brand

A destination is a place that attracts visitors for a temporary stay to participate in tourism related activities or non- activities. Globalization, the increased number of travelers and the increased buying power have increased the competition between the destinations and the destinations have become more substitutable. It has been agreed that destinations can be branded as well as products and to be competitive it is getting common to brand destinations. Destination Marketing Organizations (DMOs) are responsible for the marketing of an identifiable destination. The purpose of this study is to present an exploratory study of how a destination marketing organization creates and builds a strong destination brand and how the stakeholders have been involved in the process. The study is done with a qualitative case study approach. The case study was chosen as the research method to make a detailed and intensive analysis of the research objective, in this case the destination brand of Brazil and its stakeholders.

Anaerobic bio-digestion of concentrate obtained in the process of ultra filtration of effluents from tilapia processing unit

The objective of the present study was to evaluate the efficiency of the process of biodigestion of the protein concentrate resulting from the ultrafiltration of the effluent from a slaughterhouse freezer of Nile tilapia. Bench digesters were used with excrements and water (control) in comparison with a mixture of cattle manure and effluent from the stages of filleting and bleeding of tilapias. The effluent obtained in the continuous process (bleeding + filleting) was the one with highest accumulated population from the 37th day, as well as greatest daily production. Gases composition did not differ between the protein concentrates, but the gas obtained with the use of the effluent from the filleting stage presented highest methane gas average (78.05%) in comparison with those obtained in the bleeding stage (69.95%) and in the continuous process (70.02%) or by the control method (68.59%).

Saúde da família: uma estratégia de mudança no processo de produção dos serviços de saúde

The purpose of this study is to analyze, from the point of view of nurses, changes that took place in the process of providing health services after the introduction of the Family Health Program (FHP). It is na investigation of qualitative nature that uses semi-structured interviews as a main empirical approach tool. Six nurses from the city of Caicó, Rio Grande do Norte, who were working with basic care before the introduction of the FHP, within basic care, were: adscription and ties with the community; hospitality and the humanizacion of care-giving; decrease in cases of inpatient treatment; strengthening of the prevention of injuries and health promotion; improvemente of health indicatiors, finally, actions that point towads meeting the principles of wholeness, equity and universality as a declaration of the Brazilian National Health Care System (SUS). Nevertheless, in spite of all recognizable positive aspects, the FHP has some weaknesses, such as: the difficulty posed by colletive work; the mismatch between professional education and the demands of the current health standard; a poor physical infrastructure of the Basic Health Units; a high heath staff turnover and precarious work conditions. In addition to this, some strategies that can be used to help improve the process of providing health services have been pointed out, such as, coordination between sectors, continuous education, making work conditions less precarious and improving the means whereby heathy service management is conveyed,Tthus, finally, we understand that the FHP does bring forward meaningful changes to the process of provinding health services to strengthen the Brasilian National Health Care System (SUS), in spite of the fact that it lies within a scenario of adversities that can be overcome through the collective endeavor of the several social actors