Causal attributions for success or failure by passing and failing students in College Algebra

Success in mathematics has been identified as a predictor of baccalaureate degree completion. Within the coursework of college mathematics, College Algebra has been identified as a high-risk course due to its low success rates. ^ Research in the field of attribution theory and academic achievement suggests a relationship between a student's attributional style and achievement. Theorists and researchers contend that attributions influence individual reactions to success and failure. They also report that individuals use attributions to explain and justify their performance. Studies in mathematics education identify attribution theory as the theoretical orientation most suited to explain academic performance in mathematics. This study focused on the relationship among a high risk course, low success rates, and attribution by examining the difference in the attributions passing and failing students gave for their performance in College Algebra. ^ The methods for the study included a pilot administration of the Causal Dimension Scale (CDSII) which was used to conduct reliability and principal component analyses. Then, students (n = 410) self-reported their performance on an in-class test and attributed their performance along the dimensions of locus of causality, stability, personal controllability, and external controllability. They also provided open-ended attribution statements to explain the cause of their performance. The quantitative data compared the passing and failing groups and their attributions for performance on a test using One-Way ANOVA and Pearson chi square procedures. The open-ended attribution statements were coded in relation to ability, effort, task difficulty, and luck and compared using a Pearson chi square procedure. ^ The results of the quantitative data comparing passing and failing groups and their attributions along the dimensions measured by the CDSII indicated statistical significance in locus of causality, stability, and personal controllability. The results comparing the open-ended attribution statements indicated statistical significance in the categories of effort and task difficulty. ^

Examining moderators of the hindsight bias in the context of civil legal decision -making: Counterfactuals, causal proximity, and self -referencing

The current research sought to clarify the diverging relationships between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias observed in the literature thus far. In a non-legal context, Roese and Olson (1996) found a positive relationship between counterfactuals and hindsight bias, such that counterfactual mutations that undid the outcome also increased participants’ ratings of the outcome’s a priori likelihood. Further, they determined that this relationship is mediated by causal attributions about the counterfactually mutated antecedent event. Conversely, in the context of a civil lawsuit, Robbennolt and Sobus (1997) found that the relationship between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias is negative. The current research sought to resolve the conflicting findings in the literature within a legal context. ^ In Experiment One, the manipulation of the normality of the defendant’s target behavior, designed to manipulate participants’ counterfactual thoughts about said behavior, did moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge on mock jurors’ judgments of the foreseeability of that outcome as well as their negligence verdicts. Although I predicted that counterfactual thinking would increase, or exacerbate, the hindsight bias, as found by Roese and Olson (1996), my results provided some support for Robbenolt and Sobus’s (1997) finding that counterfactual thinking decreases the hindsight bias. Behavior normality did not moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge in Experiment Two, nor did causal proximity in Experiment Three. ^ Additionally, my hypothesis that self-referencing may be an effective hindsight debiasing technique received little support across the three experiments. Although both the self-referencing instructions and self-report measure consistently decreased mock jurors’ likelihood of finding the defendant negligent, and self-referencing instructions decreased their foreseeability ratings in studies two and three, the self-referencing manipulation did not interact with outcome knowledge to moderate a hindsight bias effect on either foreseeability or negligence judgments. The consistent pattern of results across the three experiments, however, suggests that self-referencing may be an effective technique in reducing the likelihood of negligence verdicts.^

Examining Moderators of the Hindsight Bias in the Context of Civil Legal Decision-Making: Counterfactuals, Causal Proximity, and Self-Referencing

The current research sought to clarify the diverging relationships between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias observed in the literature thus far. In a non-legal context, Roese and Olson (1996) found a positive relationship between counterfactuals and hindsight bias, such that counterfactual mutations that undid the outcome also increased participants’ ratings of the outcome’s a priori likelihood. Further, they determined that this relationship is mediated by causal attributions about the counterfactually mutated antecedent event. Conversely, in the context of a civil lawsuit, Robbennolt and Sobus (1997) found that the relationship between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias is negative. The current research sought to resolve the conflicting findings in the literature within a legal context. In Experiment One, the manipulation of the normality of the defendant’s target behavior, designed to manipulate participants’ counterfactual thoughts about said behavior, did moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge on mock jurors’ judgments of the foreseeability of that outcome as well as their negligence verdicts. Although I predicted that counterfactual thinking would increase, or exacerbate, the hindsight bias, as found by Roese and Olson (1996), my results provided some support for Robbenolt and Sobus’s (1997) finding that counterfactual thinking decreases the hindsight bias. Behavior normality did not moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge in Experiment Two, nor did causal proximity in Experiment Three. Additionally, my hypothesis that self-referencing may be an effective hindsight debiasing technique received little support across the three experiments. Although both the self-referencing instructions and self-report measure consistently decreased mock jurors’ likelihood of finding the defendant negligent, and self-referencing instructions decreased their foreseeability ratings in studies two and three, the self-referencing manipulation did not interact with outcome knowledge to moderate a hindsight bias effect on either foreseeability or negligence judgments. The consistent pattern of results across the three experiments, however, suggests that self-referencing may be an effective technique in reducing the likelihood of negligence verdicts.

Corpus annotation of causal relations and their signals in English and Spanish

El estudio de las relaciones causales y su expresión lingüística ha sido comúnmente estudiado desde diferentes perspectivas en los años recientes. Sin embargo, pocos estudios han intentado combinar diferentes enfoques para establecer el significado de estas relaciones, y han investigado de manera contrastiva las señales usadas para expresarlas. Este trabajo de fin de master es un proyecto para avanzar el conocimiento en este área mediante la investigación de: a) la posibilidad de caracterizar las relaciones causales en diferentes tipos, usando características que combinan un enfoque funcional y cognitivo; b) los tipos de relaciones causales preferidas en los textos expositivos en inglés y sus traducciones al español; c) las expresiones lingüísticas preferidas para expresar dichas relaciones causales en los textos originales en inglés y sus traducciones al español. La metodología usada en esta investigación se basa en la anotación manual de un corpus bilingüe compuesto de un total de 37 textos expositivos (incluyendo los textos originales en inglés y sus traducciones al español) extraídos del corpus MULTINOT, un corpus de alta calidad, con registros diversificados y multifuncional bilingüe inglésespañol, actualmente compilado y anotado multidimensionalmente por los miembros del grupo de investigación FUNCAP con el proyecto MULTINOT (véase Lavid et al.2015) El estudio se llevó a cabo en cuatro pasos principales: primero, un esquema de anotación para las relaciones causales en inglés y español fue diseñado constando de tres sistemas interrelacionados y sus correspondientes características; tras ello, se compiló un inventario de señales para las relaciones causales en inglés y español, y una categorización en diferentes tipos; seguidamente, el esquema de anotación fue implementado en la herramienta UAM Corpus Tool y el conjunto de textos bilingües fue anotado por el autor de este estudio; finalmente, los datos extraídos de la anotación fueron analizados estadísticamente para comprobar las posibles diferencias entre los textos originales en inglés y sus traducciones al español respecto a la selección del tipo de relación de causa y sus señales. El análisis estadístico de los datos anotados sugiere que los tipos de relaciones de causa preferidos en los textos originales en inglés y son los tipos de contenido y no volitivos, que el orden de aparición de estos tipos de señales preferido es la segunda posición, y las señales más recurrentes usadas para expresar dichas relaciones son las conjunciones, seguidas de los sintagmas verbales. El análisis de las traducciones al español revela un alto grado de similitud con los datos de los textos originales en inglés, lo que sugiere que en las traducciones al español se conservan las preferencias de los textos originales en la mayoría de los casos y que estas elecciones pueden considerarse un indicativo de los textos expositivos en inglés. Proyectos futuros se centraran en el análisis de los textos originales en español para comprobar si las tendencias observadas en los textos originales en inglés y sus traducciones al español son también validas en textos originales en español, y en la especificación de patrones que puede ayudar al análisis automático de estas relaciones

Building bridges for future sustainability? Breaching the research-teaching nexus in engineering education

The relationship between research and learning and teaching represents what has been described as amongst the most intellectually tangled, managerially complex and politically contentious issues in mass higher education (Scott, 2005, p 53). Despite this, arguments that in order to achieve high quality scholarly outcomes, university teachers need to adopt an approach to teaching similar to that of research (founded upon academic rigour and evidence), has long been discussed in the literature. However, the practicalities of promoting an empirical and evidence-based approach to teaching in engineering education make dealing with the research / teaching nexus a somewhat challenging proposition. Using a phenomenographic approach, bringing together and applying the findings of a mixed methodological study, the workshop will adopt an activity based, interactive approach to encourage staff to consider the challenges and benefits of adopting an evidence-based approach to learning and teaching through the utilisation of research to inform their own practice. © 2009 Authors.

Functional Evaluation of Causal Mutations Identified in Human Genetic Studies

Human genetics has been experiencing a wave of genetic discoveries thanks to the development of several technologies, such as genome-wide association studies (GWAS), whole-exome sequencing, and whole genome sequencing. Despite the massive genetic discoveries of new variants associated with human diseases, several key challenges emerge following the genetic discovery. GWAS is known to be good at identifying the locus associated with the patient phenotype. However, the actually causal variants responsible for the phenotype are often elusive. Another challenge in human genetics is that even the causal mutations are already known, the underlying biological effect might remain largely ambiguous. Functional evaluation plays a key role to solve these key challenges in human genetics both to identify causal variants responsible for the phenotype, and to further develop the biological insights from the disease-causing mutations.

We adopted various methods to characterize the effects of variants identified in human genetic studies, including patient genetic and phenotypic data, RNA chemistry, molecular biology, virology, and multi-electrode array and primary neuronal culture systems. Chapter 1 is a broader introduction for the motivation and challenges for functional evaluation in human genetic studies, and the background of several genetics discoveries, such as hepatitis C treatment response, in which we performed functional characterization.

Chapter 2 focuses on the characterization of causal variants following the GWAS study for hepatitis C treatment response. We characterized a non-coding SNP (rs4803217) of IL28B (IFNL3) in high linkage disequilibrium (LD) with the discovery SNP identified in the GWAS. In this chapter, we used inter-disciplinary approaches to characterize rs4803217 on RNA structure, disease association, and protein translation.

Chapter 3 describes another avenue of functional characterization following GWAS focusing on the novel transcripts and proteins identified near the IL28B (IFNL3) locus. It has been recently speculated that this novel protein, which was named IFNL4, may affect the HCV treatment response and clearance. In this chapter, we used molecular biology, virology, and patient genetic and phenotypic data to further characterize and understand the biology of IFNL4. The efforts in chapter 2 and 3 provided new insights to the candidate causal variant(s) responsible for the GWAS for HCV treatment response, however, more evidence is still required to make claims for the exact causal roles of these variants for the GWAS association.

Chapter 4 aims to characterize a mutation already known to cause a disease (seizure) in a mouse model. We demonstrate the potential use of multi-electrode array (MEA) system for the functional characterization and drug testing on mutations found in neurological diseases, such as seizure. Functional characterization in neurological diseases is relatively challenging and available systematic tools are relatively limited. This chapter shows an exploratory research and example to establish a system for the broader use for functional characterization and translational opportunities for mutations found in neurological diseases.

Overall, this dissertation spans a range of challenges of functional evaluations in human genetics. It is expected that the functional characterization to understand human mutations will become more central in human genetics, because there are still many biological questions remaining to be answered after the explosion of human genetic discoveries. The recent advance in several technologies, including genome editing and pluripotent stem cells, is also expected to make new tools available for functional studies in human diseases.

Cervical cancer precursors and hormonal contraceptive use in HIV-positive women: application of a causal model and semi-parametric estimation methods.

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the application of causal inference methods to observational data in the obstetrics and gynecology field, particularly causal modeling and semi-parametric estimation. BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive women are at increased risk for cervical cancer and its treatable precursors. Determining whether potential risk factors such as hormonal contraception are true causes is critical for informing public health strategies as longevity increases among HIV-positive women in developing countries. METHODS: We developed a causal model of the factors related to combined oral contraceptive (COC) use and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater (CIN2+) and modified the model to fit the observed data, drawn from women in a cervical cancer screening program at HIV clinics in Kenya. Assumptions required for substantiation of a causal relationship were assessed. We estimated the population-level association using semi-parametric methods: g-computation, inverse probability of treatment weighting, and targeted maximum likelihood estimation. RESULTS: We identified 2 plausible causal paths from COC use to CIN2+: via HPV infection and via increased disease progression. Study data enabled estimation of the latter only with strong assumptions of no unmeasured confounding. Of 2,519 women under 50 screened per protocol, 219 (8.7%) were diagnosed with CIN2+. Marginal modeling suggested a 2.9% (95% confidence interval 0.1%, 6.9%) increase in prevalence of CIN2+ if all women under 50 were exposed to COC; the significance of this association was sensitive to method of estimation and exposure misclassification. CONCLUSION: Use of causal modeling enabled clear representation of the causal relationship of interest and the assumptions required to estimate that relationship from the observed data. Semi-parametric estimation methods provided flexibility and reduced reliance on correct model form. Although selected results suggest an increased prevalence of CIN2+ associated with COC, evidence is insufficient to conclude causality. Priority areas for future studies to better satisfy causal criteria are identified.

The Causal Links between FDI and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Case Study of the Republic of Rwanda

The study examines the short-run and long-run causality running from real economic growth to real foreign direct investment inflows (RFDI). Other variables such as education (involving combination of primary, secondary and tertiary enrolment as a proxy to education), real development finance, unskilled labour, to real RFDI inflows are included in the study. The time series data covering the period of 1983 -2013 are examined. First, I applied Augmented Dicky-Fuller (ADF) technique to test for unit root in variables. Findings shows all variables integrated of order one [I(1)]. Thereafter, Johansen Co-integration Test (JCT) was conducted to establish the relationship among variables. Both trace and maximum Eigen value at 5% level of significance indicate 3 co-integrated equations. Vector error correction method (VECM) was applied to capture short and long-run causality running from education, economic growth, real development finance, and unskilled labour to real foreign direct investment inflows in the Republic of Rwanda. Findings shows no short-run causality running from education, real development finance, real GDP and unskilled labour to real FDI inflows, however there were existence of long-run causality. This can be interpreted that, in the short-run; education, development finance, finance and economic growth does not influence inflows of foreign direct investment in Rwanda; but it does in long-run. From the policy perspective, the Republic of Rwanda should focus more on long term goal of investing in education to improve human capital, undertake policy reforms that promotes economic growth, in addition to promoting good governance to attract development finance – especially from Nordics countries (particularly Norway and Denmark).

Reconceptualising International Intervention: Statebuilding, ‘Organic Processes’ and the Limits of Causal Knowledge

This article examines the transformation in the conceptual understanding of international intervention over the last two decades. It suggests that this conceptual shift can be usefully interrogated through its imbrication within broader epistemological shifts highlighting the limits of causal knowledge claims: heuristically framed in this article in terms of the shift from policy interventions within the problematic of causation to those concerned with the management of effects. In this shift, the means and mechanisms of international intervention have been transformed, no longer focused on the universal application of Western causal knowledge through policy interventions but rather on the effects of specific and unique local and organic processes at work in societies themselves. The focus on effects takes the conceptualisation of intervention out of the traditional terminological lexicon of International Relations theory and instead recasts problems in increasingly organicised ways, suggesting that artificial or hubristic attempts at socio-political intervention should be excluded or minimised.

Rethinking the Conflict-Poverty Nexus: From Securitising Intervention to Resilience

We are witnessing nothing less than a revolution in international policy-thinking, with a shift from imagining that international policy-makers can solve development/ security problems through the export or transfer of policy practices or their imposition through conditionality, to understanding that problems should be grasped as emergent consequences of complex social processes which need to be worked with rather than against. This paper, prepared for the 2014 CEPA conference, focuses therefore less on the politicisation and securitisation of questions of conflict and poverty and more on the depoliticisation of questions of conflict and poverty, especially through frameworks of resilience.

Automated Equation Formulation for Causal Loop Diagrams

The annotation of Business Dynamics models with parameters and equations, to simulate the system under study and further evaluate its simulation output, typically involves a lot of manual work. In this paper we present an approach for automated equation formulation of a given Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) and a set of associated time series with the help of neural network evolution (NEvo). NEvo enables the automated retrieval of surrogate equations for each quantity in the given CLD, hence it produces a fully annotated CLD that can be used for later simulations to predict future KPI development. In the end of the paper, we provide a detailed evaluation of NEvo on a business use-case to demonstrate its single step prediction capabilities.

Applying the security-development nexus on the ground: Land restitution in Colombia

The general consensus on the security-development nexus is that both are key to achieving sustainable peace in war-torn societies. However, this debate has largely taken place among international actors, with little empirical evidence about how security and development relate to each other or are even considered by local actors. The current paper applies the security-development nexus to the case of land restitution in Colombia. Following decades of internal armed conflict, in 2012 the national government passed sweeping land restitution legislation amid on-going violence. Through in-depth interviews and focus groups with multiple actors involved in this process, ranging from international organizations to national government units, from regional institutions to local communities, the paper analyses the objectives, impact, challenges and opportunities for land restitution related to security and development. Undermining peacebuilding, a lack of coherence in the integration of security and development priorities limits the extent to which either supports, or is promoted by, land restitution efforts in Colombia. The paper concludes with reflections on how the security-development nexus may promote peacebuilding amid on-going conflict.