Estimates of annual mean surface temperatures in the late Quaternary of the tropical Atlantic

At least two modes of glacial-interglacial climate change have existed within the tropical Atlantic Ocean during the last 20,000 years. The first mode (defined by cold glacial and warm interglacial conditions) occurred symmetrically north and south of the equator and dominated the eastern boundary currents and tropical upwelling areas. This pattern suggests that mode 1 is driven by a glacial modification of surface winds in both hemispheres. The second mode of oceanic climate change, defined by temperature extremes centered on the deglaciation, was hemispherically asymmetrical, with the northern tropical Atlantic relatively cold and the southern tropical Atlantic relatively warm during deglaciation. A likely cause for this pattern of variation is a reduction of the presently northward cross-equatorial heat flux during deglaciation. No single mechanism accounts for all the data. Potential contributors to oceanic climate changes are linkage to high-latitude climates, modification of monsoonal winds by ice sheet and/or insolation changes, atmospheric CO2 and greenhouse effects, indirect effects of glacial meltwater, and variations in thermohaline overturn of the oceans.

Numerical Investigation on the Heat Transfer Enhancement Using Micro/Nano Phase-Change Particulate Flow

The introduction of phase change material fluid and nanofluid in micro-channel heat sink design can significantly increase the cooling capacity of the heat sink because of the unique features of these two kinds of fluids. To better assist the design of a high performance micro-channel heat sink using phase change fluid and nanofluid, the heat transfer enhancement mechanism behind the flow with such fluids must be completely understood. A detailed parametric study is conducted to further investigate the heat transfer enhancement of the phase change material particle suspension flow, by using the two-phase non-thermal-equilibrium model developed by Hao and Tao (2004). The parametric study is conducted under normal conditions with Reynolds numbers of Re=600-900 and phase change material particle concentrations ¡Ü0.25 , as well as extreme conditions of very low Reynolds numbers (Re < 50) and high phase change material particle concentration (0.5-0.7) slurry flow. By using the two newly-defined parameters, named effectiveness factor and performance index, respectively, it is found that there exists an optimal relation between the channel design parameters, particle volume fraction, Reynolds number, and the wall heat flux. The influence of the particle volume fraction, particle size, and the particle viscosity, to the phase change material suspension flow, are investigated and discussed. The model was validated by available experimental data. The conclusions will assist designers in making their decisions that relate to the design or selection of a micro-pump suitable for micro or mini scale heat transfer devices. To understand the heat transfer enhancement mechanism of the nanofluid flow from the particle level, the lattice Boltzmann method is used because of its mesoscopic feature and its many numerical advantages. By using a two-component lattice Boltzmann model, the heat transfer enhancement of the nanofluid is analyzed, through incorporating the different forces acting on the nanoparticles to the two-component lattice Boltzmann model. It is found that the nanofluid has better heat transfer enhancement at low Reynolds numbers, and the Brownian motion effect of the nanoparticles will be weakened by the increase of flow speed.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and sperm swimming speed of the polychaete Galeolaria caespitosa in lab experiment

The rapidity of ocean acidification intensifies selection pressure for resilient phenotypes, particularly during sensitive early life stages. The scope for selection is greater in species with greater within-species variation in responses to changing environments, thus enhancing the potential for adaptation. We investigated among-male variation in sperm swimming responses (percent motility and swimming speeds) of the serpulid polychaete Galeolaria caespitosa to near- (delta pH 0.3) and far-future ocean acidification (delta pH 0.5). Responses of sperm swimming to acidification varied significantly among males and were overall negative. Robust sperm swimming behavior under near-future ocean acidification in some males may ameliorate climate change impacts, if traits associated with robustness are heritable, and thereby enhance the potential for adaptation to far-future conditions. Reduced sperm swimming in the majority of male G. caespitosa may decrease their fertilization success in a high CO2 future ocean. Resultant changes in offspring production could affect recruitment success and population fitness downstream.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and sperm swimming speed, fertilization success of the Australasian sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma in lab experiment

Background: Climate change will lead to intense selection on many organisms, particularly during susceptible early life stages. To date, most studies on the likely biotic effects of climate change have focused on the mean responses of pooled groups of animals. Consequently, the extent to which inter-individual variation mediates different selection responses has not been tested. Investigating this variation is important, since some individuals may be preadapted to future climate scenarios. Methodology/Principal Findings: We examined the effect of CO2-induced pH changes ("ocean acidification") in sperm swimming behaviour on the fertilization success of the Australasian sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma, focusing on the responses of separate individuals and pairs. Acidification significantly decreased the proportion of motile sperm but had no effect on sperm swimming speed. Subsequent fertilization experiments showed strong inter-individual variation in responses to ocean acidification, ranging from a 44% decrease to a 14% increase in fertilization success. This was partly explained by the significant relationship between decreases in percent sperm motility and fertilization success at delta pH = 0.3, but not at delta pH = 0.5. Conclusions and Significance: The effects of ocean acidification on reproductive success varied markedly between individuals. Our results suggest that some individuals will exhibit enhanced fertilization success in acidified oceans, supporting the concept of 'winners' and 'losers' of climate change at an individual level. If these differences are heritable it is likely that ocean acidification will lead to selection against susceptible phenotypes as well as to rapid fixation of alleles that allow reproduction under more acidic conditions. This selection may ameliorate the biotic effects of climate change if taxa have sufficient extant genetic variation upon which selection can act.

Holocene precipitation change in different monsoon sub-regions (time-slices and transient data) simulated by different global climate models, with links to model results

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

Climate change-related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea

During the 1980s, the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatiotemporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959–1980 and 1989–2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized.

Climate change-related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea

During the 1980s, the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatiotemporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959–1980 and 1989–2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized.

Climate change and the long-term viability of the World’s busiest heavy haul ice road

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world’s busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR.

Modeling long-term variability and change of soil moisture and groundwater level - from catchment to global scale

The water stored in and flowing through the subsurface is fundamental for sustaining human activities and needs, feeding water and its constituents to surface water bodies and supporting the functioning of their ecosystems. Quantifying the changes that affect the subsurface water is crucial for our understanding of its dynamics and changes driven by climate change and other changes in the landscape, such as in land-use and water-use. It is inherently difficult to directly measure soil moisture and groundwater levels over large spatial scales and long times. Models are therefore needed to capture the soil moisture and groundwater level dynamics over such large spatiotemporal scales. This thesis develops a modeling framework that allows for long-term catchment-scale screening of soil moisture and groundwater level changes. The novelty in this development resides in an explicit link drawn between catchment-scale hydroclimatic and soil hydraulics conditions, using observed runoff data as an approximation of soil water flux and accounting for the effects of snow storage-melting dynamics on that flux. Both past and future relative changes can be assessed by use of this modeling framework, with future change projections based on common climate model outputs. By direct model-observation comparison, the thesis shows that the developed modeling framework can reproduce the temporal variability of large-scale changes in soil water storage, as obtained from the GRACE satellite product, for most of 25 large study catchments around the world. Also compared with locally measured soil water content and groundwater level in 10 U.S. catchments, the modeling approach can reasonably well reproduce relative seasonal fluctuations around long-term average values. The developed modeling framework is further used to project soil moisture changes due to expected future climate change for 81 catchments around the world. The future soil moisture changes depend on the considered radiative forcing scenario (RCP) but are overall large for the occurrence frequency of dry and wet events and the inter-annual variability of seasonal soil moisture. These changes tend to be higher for the dry events and the dry season, respectively, than for the corresponding wet quantities, indicating increased drought risk for some parts of the world.

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. Methods For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassifi cation. Findings Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5–2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6–40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7–1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1–1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Interpretation Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued eff orts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.

History of Premenstrual Mood Change and Postpartum Episodes are Associated with Perimenopausal Episodes in Women with Bipolar Disorder

Background and Aims: Reproductive life events are potential triggers of mood episodes in women with bipolar disorder. We aimed to establish whether a history of premenstrual mood change and postpartum episodes are associated with perimenopausal episodes in women who have bipolar disorder. Methods: Participants were 339 post-menopausal women with DSM-IV bipolar disorder recruited into the Bipolar Disorder Research Network (www.bdrn.org). Women self-reported presence (N = 200) or absence (N = 139) of an illness episode during the perimenopausal period. History of premenstrual mood change was measured using the self-report Premenstrual Symptoms Screening Tool (PSST), and history of postpartum episodes was measured via semi-structured interview (Schedules for Clinical Assessment in Neuropsychiatry, SCAN) and inspection of case-notes. Results: History of a postpartum episode within 6 months of delivery (OR = 2.13, p = 0.03) and history of moderate/severe premenstrual syndrome (OR = 6.33, p < 0.001) were significant predictors of the presence of a perimenopausal episode, even after controlling for demographic factors. When we narrowed the definition of premenstrual mood change to premenstrual dysphoric disorder, it remained significant (OR = 2.68, p = 0.007). Conclusions: Some women who have bipolar disorder may be particularly sensitive to reproductive life events. Previous mood episodes in relation to the female reproductive lifecycle may help clinicians predict individual risk for women with bipolar disorder approaching the menopause. There is a need for prospective longitudinal studies of women with bipolar disorder providing frequent contemporaneous ratings of their mood to overcome the limitations of retrospective self-report data.

Dancing the Archive: Rhythms of Change in Post-Volcano Identities on Montserrat, West Indies

In this dissertation, I demonstrate how improvisations within the structures of performance during Montserrat’s annual festivals produce “rhythms of change” that contribute to the formation of cultural identities. Montserrat is a small island of 39.5 square miles in the Caribbean’s Leeward Islands, and a volcanic disaster in the 1990s led to the loss of villages, homes, and material possessions. The crisis resulted in mass displacement and emigration, and today’s remaining population of 5,000 is now in a stage of post-volcano redevelopment. The reliability of written archives for establishing cultural knowledge is tenuous, and the community is faced with re-energizing cherished cultural traditions. This ethnographic research traces my embodied search for Montserrat’s history through an archive that is itself intangible and performative. Festivals produce some of the island’s most visible and culturally political events, and music and dance performances prompt on- and off-stage discussions about the island’s multifaceted heritage. The festival cycle provides the structure for ongoing renegotiations of what it means to be “Montserratian.” I focus especially on the island’s often-discussed and debated “triangular” heritage of Irishness, Africanness, and Montserratianness as it is performed during the festivals. Through my meanderings along the winding hilly roads of Montserrat, I explored reconfigurations of cultural memory through the island’s masquerade dance tradition and other festival celebrations. In this work, I introduce a “Cast of Characters,” each of whose scholarly, artistic, and public service work on Montserrat contributes to the shape and transformation of the island’s post-volcano cultural identities today. This dissertation is about the kinesthetic transmission of shared (and sometimes unshared) cultural knowledge, the substance of which echoes in the rhythms of Montserrat’s music and dance practices today.

Exploring the contradictions between Brazil’s role in the global climate change regime and its position in regional environmental governance.

Similar to other developing countries Brazil’s position on climate change emphasises national sovereignty and the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities”. However, in recent years Brasilia has also announced voluntary reductions in carbon emissions, making Brazil one of the leading emerging countries in its approach to climate change, while enhancing its international reputation and legitimacy. Compared to its neighbours Brazil has older and more developed domestic environmental institutions and movements. Yet, Brazil’s global leadership on climate change does not translate into a similar role in regional environmental governance. In the 2000s Argentina and Uruguay became embroiled in a bitter environmental conflict involving a shared natural resource, the Uruguay River. Brazil not only refused to mediate, but also kept it out of regional forums insisting on the conflict’s bilateral nature. Furthermore, Mercosur’s environmental agenda has progressively become eroded while Brazilian-led Unasur lacks an institutional framework dedicated to environmental concerns. This indicates that environmental concerns are far more important for Brazil’s global image than for its role as a regional leader. It also highlights the limited scope of the climate change negotiations which focus narrowly on reducing carbon emissions, without taking wider concerns over energy generation or environmental and social justice into account. Brazil has promoted hydropower generation, portrayed as “clean” energy. Yet, these projects have sparked strong domestic and regional civil society opposition due to their social and environmental costs which make it difficult for Brazil to claim a regional leadership role on environmental concerns.

ESSAYS IN ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE

This dissertation studies technological change in the context of energy and environmental economics. Technology plays a key role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. Chapter 1 estimates a structural model of the car industry that allows for endogenous product characteristics to investigate how gasoline taxes, R&D subsidies and competition affect fuel efficiency and vehicle prices in the medium-run, both through car-makers' decisions to adopt technologies and through their investments in knowledge capital. I use technology adoption and automotive patents data for 1986-2006 to estimate this model. I show that 92% of fuel efficiency improvements between 1986 and 2006 were driven by technology adoption, while the role of knowledge capital is largely to reduce the marginal production costs of fuel-efficient cars. A counterfactual predicts that an additional $1/gallon gasoline tax in 2006 would have increased the technology adoption rate, and raised average fuel efficiency by 0.47 miles/gallon, twice the annual fuel efficiency improvement in 2003-2006. An R&D subsidy that would reduce the marginal cost of knowledge capital by 25% in 2006 would have raised investment in knowledge capital. This subsidy would have raised fuel efficiency only by 0.06 miles/gallon in 2006, but would have increased variable profits by $2.3 billion over all firms that year. Passenger vehicle fuel economy standards in the United States will require substantial improvements in new vehicle fuel economy over the next decade. Economic theory suggests that vehicle manufacturers adopt greater fuel-saving technologies for vehicles with larger market size. Chapter 2 documents a strong connection between market size, measured by sales, and technology adoption. Using variation consumer demographics and purchasing pattern to account for the endogeneity of market size, we find that a 10 percent increase in market size raises vehicle fuel efficiency by 0.3 percent, as compared to a mean improvement of 1.4 percent per year over 1997-2013. Historically, fuel price and demographic-driven market size changes have had large effects on technology adoption. Furthermore, fuel taxes would induce firms to adopt fuel-saving technologies on their most efficient cars, thereby polarizing the fuel efficiency distribution of the new vehicle fleet.