A non-linear perturbation model considering catchment wetness and its application in river flow forecasting

A non-linear perturbation model for river flow forecasting is developed, based on consideration of catchment wetness using an antecedent precipitation index (API). Catchment seasonality, of the form accounted for in the linear perturbation model (the LPM), and non-linear behaviour both in the runoff generation mechanism and in the flow routing processes are represented by a constrained nan-linear model, the NLPM-API. A total of ten catchments, across a range of climatic conditions and catchment area magnitudes, located in China and in other countries, were selected for testing daily rainfall-runoff forecasting with this model. It was found that the NLPM-API model was significantly more efficient than the original linear perturbation model (the LPM). However, restric tion of explicit nan-linearity to the runoff generation process, in the simpler LPM-API form of the model, did not produce a significantly lower value of the efficiency in flood forecasting, in terms of the model efficiency index R-2. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

Computer-aided design of PV/wind hybrid system

A complete set of match calculation methods for optimum sizing of PV/wind hybrid system is presented. In this method, the more accurate and practical mathematic models for characterizing PV module, wind generator and battery are adopted; combining with hourly measured meteorologic data and load data, the performance of a PV/wind hybrid system is determined on a hourly basis; by fixing the capacity of wind generators, the whole year's LPSP (loss of power supply probability) values of PV/wind hybrid systems with different capacity of PV array and battery bank are calculated, then the trade-off curve between battery bank and PV array capacity is drawn for the given LPSP value; the optimum configuration which can meet the energy demand with the minimum cost can be found by drawing a tangent to the trade-off curve with the slope representing the relationship between cost of PV module and that of the battery. According to this match calculation method, a set of match calculation programs for optimum sizing of PV/wind hybrid systems have been developed. Applying these match calculation programs to an assumed PV/wind hybrid system to be installed at Waglan island of Hong Kong, the optimum configuration and its hourly, daily, monthly and yearly performances are given. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Criterion of aerodynamic performance of large-scale offshore horizontal axis wind turbines

With the background of offshore wind energy projects, this paper studies aerodynamic performance and geometric characteristics of large capacity wind turbine rotors ( 1 to 10 MW), and the main characteristic parameters such as the rated wind speed, blade tip speed, and rotor solidity. We show that the essential criterion of a high-performance wind turbine is a highest possible annual usable energy pattern factor and a smallest possible dimension, capturing the maximum wind energy and producing the maximum annual power. The influence of the above-mentioned three parameters on the pattern factor and rotor geometry of wind turbine operated in China's offshore meteorological environment is investigated. The variation patterns of aerodynamic and geometric parameters are obtained, analyzed, and compared with each other. The present method for aerodynamic analysis and its results can form a basis for evaluating aerodynamic performance of large-scale offshore wind turbine rotors.

Estimation of wind erosion rates by using Cs-137 tracing technique: A case study in Tariat-Xilin Gol transect, Mongolian Plateau

Wind erosion is one of the major environmental problems in semi-arid and arid regions. Here we established the Tariat-Xilin Gol transect from northwest to southeast across the Mongolian Plateau, and selected seven sampling sites along the transect. We then estimated the soil wind erosion rates by using the Cs-137 tracing technique and examined their spatial dynamics. Our results showed that the Cs-137 inventories of sampling sites ranged from 265.63 +/- 44.91 to 1279.54 +/- 166.53 Bq.m(-2), and the wind erosion rates varied from 64.58 to 419.63 t.km(-2).a(-1) accordingly. In the Mongolia section of the transect (from Tariat to Sainshand), the wind erosion rate increased gradually with vegetation type and climatic regimes; the wind erosion process was controlled by physical factors such as annual precipitation and vegetation coverage, etc., and the impact of human activities was negligible. While in the China section of the transect (Inner Mongolia), the wind erosion rates of Xilin Hot and Zhengxiangbai Banner were thrice as much as those of Bayannur of Mongolia, although these three sites were all dominated by typical steppe. Besides the physical factors, higher population density and livestock carrying level should be responsible for the higher wind erosion rates in these two regions of Inner Mongolia.

Using the RBFN model and GIS technique to assess wind erosion hazard of inner Mongolia, China

Soil wind erosion is the primary process and the main driving force for land desertification and sand-dust storms in and and semi-arid areas of Northern China. While many researchers have studied this issue, this study quantified the various indicators of soil wind erosion, using the GIS technology to extract the spatial data and to construct a RBFN (Radial Basis Function Network) model for Inner Mongolia. By calibrating sample data of the different levels of wind erosion hazard, the model parameters were established, and then the assessment of wind erosion hazard. Results show that in the southern parts of Inner Mongolia wind erosion hazards are very severe, counties in the middle regions of Inner Mongolia vary from moderate to severe, and in eastern are slight. Comparison of the results with other research shows conformity with actual conditions, proving the reasonability and applicability of the RBFN model. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Distribution characteristics of (CS)-C-137 in wind-eroded soil profile and its use in estimating wind erosion modulus

Due to its inert reaction in soil system and distinctive vertical distribution in soil profile, caesium-137 (Cs-137) has been used as a tracer to assess wind erosion. In this study, 62 soil samples were collected from 4 sampling sites in Taipusi County, Inner Mongolia; Caesium-137 activities for those soil samples were measured using a gamma-ray spectrometry in Sichuan University, Chengdu. Distribution pattern of Cs-137 in vertical soil profile was different for different land use and land cover types. Caesium-137 was distributed homogeneously in plow layer of cropland, and negatively exponential in low to medium cover grassland. Distribution pattern in high covered grassland was represented by a peak at 2-4 cm soil depth followed by a negative exponential curve. Based on those findings, simplified mass balance model was chosen to estimate the rate of wind erosion for cropland, while profile distribution model was used for grassland. Estimated wind erosion rates were 7990, 4270 and 1808 Mg(.)km(-2.)a(-1) for cropland, low cover grassland and medium cover grassland, respectively. Wind erosion intensity correlated negatively with plant cover.

Deformation Monitoring and Forecasting Model Study Based on Grey System Theory

The grey system theory studies the uncertainty of small sample size problems. This paper using grey system theory in the deformation monitoring field, based on analysis of present grey forecast models, developed the spatial multi-point model. By using residual modification, the spatial multi-point residual model eras developed in further study. Then, combined with the sedimentation data of Xiaolangdi Multipurpose Dam, the results are compared and analyzed, the conclusion has been made and the advantages of the residual spatial multi-point model has been proved.

Application of forecasting structural cracks technique of 3D move in Chengdao buried hill

3DMove software, based on the three-dimension structural model of geologic interpretation, can forecast reservoir cracks from the point of view of formation of the structural geology, and analyze the characteristics of the cracks. 3DMove software dominates in forecasting cracks. We forecast the developments and directions of the cracks in Chengbei buried hill with the application of forecasting technique in 3DMove software, and obtain the chart about strain distributing on top in buried hill and the chart about relative density and orientation and the chart about the analysis of crack unsealing. In Chengbei 30 buried hill zone, north-west and north-east and approximately east-west cracks in Cenozoic are very rich and the main directions in every fault block are different. Forecasting results that are also verified by those of drilling approximately accord with the data from well logging, the case of which shows that the technique has the better ability in forecasting cracks, and takes more effects on exploration and exploitation of crack reservoir beds in ancient buried hill reservoirs.

On SAR wind speed ambiguities and related geophysical model functions

Recent investigations show that normalized radar cross sections for C-band microwave sensors decrease under high wind conditions with certain incident angles instead of increase, as is the case for low to moderate wind speeds. This creates the problem of ambiguities in high wind speed retrievals from synthetic aperture radar (SAR). In the present work, four geophysical model functions (GMFs) are studied, namely the high wind C-band model 4 (CMOD4HW), C-band model 5 (CMOD5), the high wind vertical polarized GMF (HWGMF_VV), and the high wind horizontal polarized GMF (HWGMF_HH). Our focus is on model behaviours relative to wind speed ambiguities. We show that, except for CMOD4HW, the other GMFs exhibit the wind speed ambiguity problem. To consider this problem in high wind speed retrievals from SAR, we focus on hurricanes and propose a method to remove the speed ambiguity using the dominant hurricane wind structure.

Speed ambiguity in hurricane wind retrieval from SAR imagery

Under strong ocean surface wind conditions, the normalized radar cross section of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is dampened at certain incident angles, compared with the signals under moderate winds. This causes a wind speed ambiguity problem in wind speed retrievals from SAR, because two solutions may exist for each backscattered signal. This study shows that the problem is ubiquitous in the images acquired by operational space-borne SAR sensors. Moreover, the problem is more severe for the near range and range travelling winds. To remove this ambiguity, a method was developed based on characteristics of the hurricane wind structure. A SAR image of Hurricane Rita (2005) was analysed to demonstrate the wind speed ambiguity problem and the method to improve the wind speed retrievals. Our conclusions suggest that a speed ambiguity removal algorithm must be used for wind retrievals from SAR in intense storms and hurricanes.

A new wind vector algorithm for C-band SAR

Ocean wind speed and wind direction are estimated simultaneously using the normalized radar cross sections or' corresponding to two neighboring (25-km) blocks, within a given synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image, having slightly different incidence angles. This method is motivated by the methodology used for scatterometer data. The wind direction ambiguity is removed by using the direction closest to that given by a buoy or some other source of information. We demonstrate this method with 11 EN-VISAT Advanced SAR sensor images of the Gulf of Mexico and coastal waters of the North Atlantic. Estimated wind vectors are compared with wind measurements from buoys and scatterometer data. We show that this method can surpass other methods in some cases, even those with insufficient visible wind-induced streaks in the SAR images, to extract wind vectors.