Threshold effects in price transmission: The case of Brazilian wheat, maize, and soya prices

Recent studies into price transmission have recognized the important role played by transport and transaction costs. Threshold models are one approach to accommodate such costs. We develop a generalized Threshold Error Correction Model to test for the presence and form of threshold behavior in price transmission that is symmetric around equilibrium. We use monthly wheat, maize, and soya prices from the United States, Argentina, and Brazil to demonstrate this model. Classical estimation of these generalized models can present challenges but Bayesian techniques avoid many of these problems. Evidence for thresholds is found in three of the five commodity price pairs investigated.

The effects of irrigation, nitrogen fertilizer and grain size on Hagberg falling number, specific weight and blackpoint of winter wheat

The effects of irrigation and nitrogen (N) fertilizer on Hagberg falling number (HFN), specific weight (SW) and blackpoint (BP) of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L) were investigated. Mains water (+50 and +100 mm month(-1), containing 44 mg NO3- litre(-1) and 28 mg SO42- litre(-1)) was applied with trickle irrigation during winter (17 January-17 March), spring (21 March-20 May) or summer (24 May-23 July). In 1999/2000 these treatments were factorially combined with three N levels (0, 200, 400 kg N ha(-1)), applied to cv Hereward. In 2000/01 the 400 kg N ha(-1) treatment was replaced with cv Malacca given 200 kg N ha(-1). Irrigation increased grain yield, mostly by increasing grain numbers when applied in winter and spring, and by increasing mean grain weight when applied in summer. Nitrogen increased grain numbers and SW, and reduced BP in both years. Nitrogen increased HFN in 1999/2000 and reduced HFN in 2000/01. Effects of irrigation on HFN, SW and BP were smaller and inconsistent over year and nitrogen level. Irrigation interacted with N on mean grain weight: negatively for winter and spring irrigation, and positively for summer irrigation. Ten variables derived from digital image analysis of harvested grain were included with mean grain weight in a principal components analysis. The first principal component ('size') was negatively related to HFN (in two years) and BP (one year), and positively related to SW (two years). Treatment effects on dimensions of harvested grain could not explain all of the effects on HFN, BP and SW but the results were consistent with the hypothesis that water and nutrient availability, even when they were affected early in the season, could influence final grain quality if they influenced grain numbers and size. (C) 2004 Society of Chemical Industry

Genotype and fungicide effects on late-season root growth of winter wheat

The aim of this work was to investigate differences among genotypes in post-anthesis root growth and distribution of modern UK winter wheat cultivars, and the effects of fungicide applications. Post-anthesis root growth of up to six cultivars of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), given either one or three applications of fungicide, was studied in field experiments during two seasons. Total root mass remained unchanged between GS63 (anthesis) and GS85, but root length increased significantly from 14.7 to 31.4 km m(2) in one season. Overall, there was no evidence for a decline in either root mass or length during grain filling. Root mass as a proportion of total plant mass was about 0.05 at GS85. There were significant differences among cultivars in root length and mass especially below 30 cm. Malacca had the smallest root length and Savannah the largest, and Shamrock had a significantly larger root system below 40 cm in both seasons. Fungicide applied at ear emergence had no significant effect on root mass in either season but increased root length (P < 0.01) in the more disease-prone season. By maintaining a green canopy for longer, fungicide applied at flag leaf emergence may have resulted in delayed senescence of the root system and contributed to the post-anthesis maintenance of root mass and length.

Influence of foliar diseases and their control by fungicides on grain yield and quality in wheat

Twenty-eight field experiments on sandy-loam soils in the UK (1982-2003) are reviewed by relating the extension of the green area duration of the flag leaf (GLADF) by fungicides to effects on yield and quality of winter wheat. Over all experiments mean grain yield = 8.85t ha(-1) at 85% DM. With regards quality, mean values were: thousand grain weight (TGW) = 44.5 g; specific weight (SWT) = 76.9 kg hl(-1); crude protein concentration (CP (N x 5.7)) = 12.5 % DM; Hagberg falling number (HFN) = 285 s; and sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS)-sedimentation volume = 69ml. For each day (d) that fungicides increased GLADF there were associated average increases in yield (0.144 1 ha(-1) d(-1), se 0.0049, df = 333), TGW (0.56 gd(-1), se = 0.017) and SWT (0.22 kg hl(-1) d(-1), se 0.011). Some curvature was evident in all these relationships. When GLADF was delayed beyond 700 degrees Cd after anthesis, as was possible in cool wet seasons, responses were curtailed, or less reliable. Despite this apparent terminal sink limitation, fungicide effects on sink size, eg endosperm cell numbers or maximum water mass per grain, were not prerequisites for large effects on grain yield, TGW or SWT. Fungicide effects on CP were variable. Although the average response of CP was negative (-0.029%DM/d; se = 0.00338), this depended on cultivar and disease controlled. Controlling biotrophs such as rusts, (Puccinia spp.) tended to increase CP, whereas controlling a more necrotrophic pathogen (Septoria tritici) usually reducedCP. Irrespective of pathogen controlled, delaying senescence of the flag leaf was associated with increased nitrogen yields in the grain (averaging 2.24 kg N ha-1 d(-1), se = 0.0848) due to both increased N uptake into the above ground crop, and also more efficient remobilisation of N from leaf laminas. When sulphur availability appeared to be adequate, fungicide x cultivar interactions were similar on S as for CP, although N:S ratios tended to decline (i.e. improve for bread making) when S. tritici was controlled. On average, SDS-sedimentation volume declined (-0. 18 ml/d, se = 0.027) with increased GLADF, broadly commensurate with the average effect on CP. Hagberg falling number decreased as fungicide increased GLADF (-2.73 s/d, se = 0.178), indicating an increase in alpha-amylase activity.

Effects of restricted water availability and increased temperature on the grain filling, drying and quality of winter wheat

Experiments in controlled environments examined the effects of the timing and severity of drought, and increased temperature, on grain development of Hereward winter wheat. Environmental effects on grain specific weight, protein content, Hagberg Falling Number, SDS-sedimentation volume, and sulphur content were also studied. Drought and increased temperature applied before the end of grain filling shortened the grain filling period and reduced grain yield, mean grain weight and specific weight. Grain filling was most severely affected by drought between days 1-14 after anthesis. Protein content was increased by stresses before the end of grain growth, because nitrogen harvest index was less severely affected than was dry matter harvest index. Hagberg Falling Number was increased to the greatest extent by stresses applied 15-28 days after anthesis. Treatment effects on grain sulphur content were similar to those on protein content, such that N:S ratio was not significantly affected by drought nor temperature stresses. The effects of restricted water on grain yield and quality were linearly related to soil moisture between 44 and about 73% field capacity (FC) from days 15-28. Drought stress (but not temperature stress) before the end of grain filling decreased SDS-sedimentation volume relative to drought applied later. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fungicide and cultivar affect post-anthesis patterns of nitrogen uptake, remobilization and utilization efficiency in wheat

Three successive field experiments (2000/01-2002/03) assessed the effect of wheat cultivar (Consort.. Hereward and Shamrock) and fungicide (epoxiconazole and azoxystrobin) applied at and after flag leaf emergence on the nitrogen in the above-ground crop (Total N) and grain (Grain N), net nitrogen remobilization from non-grain tissues (Remobilized N). grain dry matter (Grain Dill), and nitrogen utilization efficiency (NUtE(g) = Grain DM/Total N). Ordinary logistic curves were fitted to the accumulation of Grain N, Grain DM and Remobilized N against thermal time after anthesis and used to simultaneously derive fits for Total N and NUtE(g). When disease was controlled, Consort achieved the greatest Grain DM, Total N, Grain N and NUtEg; in each case due mostly to longer durations, rather than quicker rates, of accumulation. Fungicide application increased final Grain Dill.. Grant N, Total N and Remobilized N, also mostly through effects on duration rather than rate of accumulation. Completely senesced leaf laminas retained less nitrogen when fungicide had been applied compared with leaf laminas previously infected severely with brown rust (Puccinia recondita) and Septoria tritici, or with just S. tritici. Late movement of nitrogen out of fungicide-treated laminas contributed to extended duration of both nitrogen remobilization and grain N filling, and meant that increases in NUtE(g) could occur without simultaneous reductions in grain N concentration.