Una Estimación del Impacto del Gasto en Atención a la Dependencia en Andalucía

La atención a la dependencia es, sin lugar a dudas, uno de los grandes retos de futuro de las sociedades que envejecen aceleradamente, al que España y Andalucía no sólo no son ajenos, sino que presentan rasgos que lo amplifican. Sin embargo, es un fenómeno que adolece de importantes lagunas de información, fundamentalmente la carencia de una perspectiva integral que conecte la realidad social, el cambio económico, y la necesidad de transformación de los modelos de bienestar en general y de cuidados en particular, el gasto necesario para su desarrollo y el impacto económico asociado; enfoque holístico que se adopta en este trabajo. Dentro del marco expuesto el objetivo principal del trabajo es cuantificar el impacto en términos de actividad, empleo y retorno fiscal, así como la relación entre la prestación recibida y las características de los dependientes, que permita avanzar en la consideración de este gasto social como una inversión. Para la estimación de los impactos se ha utilizado el Marco Input-Output de Andalucía (MIOAN) de 2010. No obstante, para calcular los incrementos de renta generados por los requerimientos producidos, se ha endogeneizado la demanda de consumo, esto ha implicado construir expresamente para este cálculo una matriz ampliada de Leontief, procediendo a una estimación especifica de la fila adicional ampliada. Finalmente para estimar la relación entre prestación y características de los dependientes se han construido distintos modelos logísticos binarios, y un modelo multinomial. Desarrollado el trabajo de investigación y cuantificado el impacto, la conclusión fundamental no es sólo fuerte efecto arrastre del gasto en dependencia en la actividad y el empleo , sino que se produce en el marco de un cambio irreversible que sitúa a los Cuidados de Larga Duración asociados a la dependencia con un papel central en el contexto de la evolución del Estado el Bienestar. En concreto se ha verificado que: • Andalucía realiza un elevado gasto en atención a la dependencia, 1314 millones de euros, un 85 % del cual total es público y un 15 % privado, y que este gasto genera un fuerte impacto en la economía andaluza, pues su contribución a los grandes agregados macroeconómicos de Andalucía es de un 0,9 % del PIB, superior al impulso de demanda que supone el gasto en atención a la dependencia. • La atención a la dependencia ha mostrado una elevada capacidad de generación de empleo, más de 40.000 empleos, muy concentrado además en personas de difícil inserción en el mercado laboral, mujeres maduras de cualificación media-baja y con poca experiencia acreditable en sector formal de la atención. • La relación entre usuarios, gasto, e impacto para las trasferencias y los servicios muestra un modelo en escalera que caracteriza un sistema de universalización de coste medio con impacto moderado. Un modelo en el que las transferencias suponen el 50 % de los atendidos, el 30 % del gasto y el 20 % del impacto. • El retorno fiscal generado por la dependencia es muy elevado, casi del 45%. • El esfuerzo financiero, tanto bruto como neto, descontado el retorno vía impuestos que obtiene de cada administración, es muy asimétrico lo que puede generar un efecto desincentivador del desarrollo de un modelo con más servicios frente a transferencias. • Las características de los dependientes condicionan la prestación que parece ajustarse a los la características personales y de grado de discapacidad más que las socioeconómicas.

Igual consideração e respeito, independência ética e liberdade de expressão em Dworkin : uma reconciliação entre igualdade e liberdade e a possibilidade do discurso do ódio em um ordenamento coerente de princípios

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Direito, Pós-Graduação Stricto Sensu em Direito, 2016.

Social Trust and Demand for Redistribution. Is There a Crowding out Effect?

The debate about the relationship between social capital the welfare state has produced contradictory results for a long time. The crowding out hypothesis states that the growth of the welfare state would erode social capital, as the action of the state leave no room for non-regulated spontaneous cooperation. In sharp contrast, the crowding in hypothesis states that there is virtuous circle between the size of the welfare state and the stock of social capital in a particular country, since generous welfare states (specially those relying on universalistic programs) will produce a particular sense of fairness and solidarity toward fellow citizens. Yet, the empirical evidence testing the explanatory power of these theories is mostly inconclusive. To further our knowledge of this puzzle, in this paper I focus specifically on the relationship between social trust and preferences for redistribution at the individual level in a sample of European countries belonging to different welfare state regimes.

Film policy under globalization: the case of Mexico

The changing economic and technological conditions often referred to as ‘globalization’ have had a deep impact on the very nature of the state, and thus on the aims, objectives and implementation of cultural policy, including film policy. In this paper, I discuss the main changes in film policy there have been in Mexico, comparing the time when the welfare state regarded cinema as crucial to the national identity, and actively supported the national cinema at the production, distribution and exhibition levels (about 1920-1980), and the recent onset of neoliberal policies, during which the industry was privatized and globalized. I argue the result has been a transformation of the film production, from the properly ‘national’ cinema it was during the welfare state—that is, having a role in nation building, democratization processes and being an important part of the public sphere—into a kind of genre, catering for a very small niche audience both domestically and internationally. However, exhibition and digital distribution have been strengthened, perhaps pointing towards a more meaningful post-national cinema.

Ética, Direito, Economia e Mercados de Valores Mobiliários (MVM)

Resumo: 1 - Ética, Direito, Economia e «mercados de valores mobiliários»: realidades concretas de um só mundo no qual interagem, de modo constante e complexo, uma série de factores económicos, sociais, políticos, culturais e mentais que não se podem separar de modo artificial; 1.1 – Intróito e primeiro andamento; 1.2 – Introdução e desenvolvimento; 1.3 – A chamada «protecção penal de valores» e/ou o «moralismo»; 2 – Ética nos mercados de valores mobiliários e capitalismo; 2.1 – Possíveis perigos do problema da ética económico-financeira; 2.2 – Os fundos éticos nos mercados de valores mobiliários; 2.3 – Códigos de conduta interna e/ou deontológica, transparência e/ou o papel dos investidores como instrumentos éticos nos mercados de valores mobiliários; 2.4 – Ética e mercados de valores mobiliários: mais alguns possíveis desenvolvimentos pré-conclusivos; 3 – Ética e mercados de valores mobiliários: o microcrédito como desenvolvimento conclusivo; 3.1 – Ética, Paz Social, Corrupção; 3.2 – Direito penal, ética e «Educação e/ou Formação no Ensino Superior»: conclusões § Abstract: § 1 - Ethics, Law, Economy and “securities” (markets): concrete realities of one only world in which they interact, in constant and complex way, a series of economic, social factors, politicians, cultural and mental who if cannot separate in artificial way; 1.1 – “First introduction” and first course; 1.2 - Introduction and development; 1.3 - The call “criminal protection of values” and/or the “morality”; 2 - Ethics in the “securities” (markets) and capitalism; 2.1 - Possible “risks” of the problem of the ethics economic-financier; 2.2 - The ethical “stock fund” in the “securities” (markets); 2.3 - Codes of internal and/or deontological behavior, transparency and/or the paper of the investors as ethical instruments in the “securities” (markets); 2.4 - Ethics and “securities” (markets): plus some possible p.-conclusive developments; 3 - Ethics and “securities” (markets): the microcredit as conclusive development; 3.1 - Ethics, Social Peace, Corruption; 3.2 - Criminal law, ethical and “Education and/or Formation in ‘University’ School”: conclusions

Estudio de empresas de sectores hegemónicos en Colombia para los años 2013 y 2014

Este documento evidencia las posiciones hegemónicas que han llegado a ocupar las empresas más poderosas del país, basándose en el estudio de datos cuantitativos del conteo de las cien empresas con mejores ventas para los años 2013 y 2014, según la revista Gerente. Se usan cinco variables: ventas totales, activos, pasivos, patrimonio y utilidades netas. En la primera sección, se hace una revisión bibliográfica que conecta el origen de la hegemonía en un panorama económico con la influencia del neoliberalismo y la globalización en el actual tejido industrial colombiano. Posteriormente, se realiza una explicación sobre la metodología aplicada para el estudio de la base de datos; la cual es seguida por una exposición de los resultados obtenidos a partir de herramientas estadísticas como el análisis de correlación lineal, quintiles y variaciones porcentuales. Finalmente, se aborda el Programa de Transformación Productiva, esto con el objetivo de mostrar los puntos focales que necesitan especial atención para lograr catalizar el desarrollo económico de Colombia.

El rol de la Unión Africana (UA) en el Cuerno de África a partir del caso de Somalia - AMISOM (2007-2013)

El propósito de esta monografía es comprender cuál ha sido el rol de la Unión Africana (UA), dentro de la misión de paz AMISOM en el periodo de 2007- 2013. Por ello, el trabajo abarca aspectos geopolíticos e históricos, que han influido en la configuración del conflicto armado de Somalía y que han llevado progresivamente a la creación, evolución e implementación de mecanismos como las misiones de paz. Además, se abarcan los planteamientos del neo-funcionalismo y el neo-regionalismo para comprender las estructuras y las dinámicas propias de la UA y así, comprender la naturaleza tanto de sus acciones, como de sus propósitos; propósitos que aclaman el fomento del panafricanismo. Desde aquí se puede entender como su rol ha contribuido con el crecimiento del mercado de la industria militar en la región, a costa de la responsabilidad de proteger. Por último, se concluye que dichas dinámicas han llevado a la creación de comunidades de inseguridad.

Improved model of an electric calciner for carbon materials

Teknova have 2D steady-state models of the calciner but wish, in the long term, to have a 3D model that can also cover unsteady conditions, and can can model the loss of axisymmetry that someties occurs. Teknova also wish to understand the processes happening around the tip of the upper electrode, in particular the formation of a lip on it and the the shape of the empty region below it. The Study Group proposed potential models for the degree of graphitization, and for the granular flow. Also the Study Group considered the upper electrode in detail. The proposed model for the lip formation is by sublimation of carbon from the hottest parts of the furnace with redeposition in the region around the electrode, which may stick particles onto the electrode surface. In this model the region below the electrode would be a void, roughly a vertex-down conical cavity. The electric field near the lower rim of the electrode will then have a singularity and so the most intense heating of the charge will be around the rim. We conjecture that the reason why the lower electrode lasts so much longer than the upper is that it is not adjacent to a cavity like this, and therefore does not have a singularity in the field.

Refining animal models in fracture research: Seeking consensus in optimising both animal welfare and scientific validity for appropriate biomedical use

Background In an attempt to establish some consensus on the proper use and design of experimental animal models in musculoskeletal research, AOVET (the veterinary specialty group of the AO Foundation) in concert with the AO Research Institute (ARI), and the European Academy for the Study of Scientific and Technological Advance, convened a group of musculoskeletal researchers, veterinarians, legal experts, and ethicists to discuss, in a frank and open forum, the use of animals in musculoskeletal research. Methods The group narrowed the field to fracture research. The consensus opinion resulting from this workshop can be summarized as follows: Results & Conclusion Anaesthesia and pain management protocols for research animals should follow standard protocols applied in clinical work for the species involved. This will improve morbidity and mortality outcomes. A database should be established to facilitate selection of anaesthesia and pain management protocols for specific experimental surgical procedures and adopted as an International Standard (IS) according to animal species selected. A list of 10 golden rules and requirements for conduction of animal experiments in musculoskeletal research was drawn up comprising 1) Intelligent study designs to receive appropriate answers; 2) Minimal complication rates (5 to max. 10%); 3) Defined end-points for both welfare and scientific outputs analogous to quality assessment (QA) audit of protocols in GLP studies; 4) Sufficient details for materials and methods applied; 5) Potentially confounding variables (genetic background, seasonal, hormonal, size, histological, and biomechanical differences); 6) Post-operative management with emphasis on analgesia and follow-up examinations; 7) Study protocols to satisfy criteria established for a "justified animal study"; 8) Surgical expertise to conduct surgery on animals; 9) Pilot studies as a critical part of model validation and powering of the definitive study design; 10) Criteria for funding agencies to include requirements related to animal experiments as part of the overall scientific proposal review protocols. Such agencies are also encouraged to seriously consider and adopt the recommendations described here when awarding funds for specific projects. Specific new requirements and mandates related both to improving the welfare and scientific rigour of animal-based research models are urgently needed as part of international harmonization of standards.

PySSM : a Python module for Bayesian inference of linear Gaussian state space models

PySSM is a Python package that has been developed for the analysis of time series using linear Gaussian state space models (SSM). PySSM is easy to use; models can be set up quickly and efficiently and a variety of different settings are available to the user. It also takes advantage of scientific libraries Numpy and Scipy and other high level features of the Python language. PySSM is also used as a platform for interfacing between optimised and parallelised Fortran routines. These Fortran routines heavily utilise Basic Linear Algebra (BLAS) and Linear Algebra Package (LAPACK) functions for maximum performance. PySSM contains classes for filtering, classical smoothing as well as simulation smoothing.

How to design extended finite state machine test models in Java

This chapter is a tutorial that teaches you how to design extended finite state machine (EFSM) test models for a system that you want to test. EFSM models are more powerful and expressive than simple finite state machine (FSM) models, and are one of the most commonly used styles of models for model-based testing, especially for embedded systems. There are many languages and notations in use for writing EFSM models, but in this tutorial we write our EFSM models in the familiar Java programming language. To generate tests from these EFSM models we use ModelJUnit, which is an open-source tool that supports several stochastic test generation algorithms, and we also show how to write your own model-based testing tool. We show how EFSM models can be used for unit testing and system testing of embedded systems, and for offline testing as well as online testing.

Time-domain hydroelastic analysis of a flexible marine structure using state-space models

This article deals with time-domain hydroelastic analysis of a marine structure. The convolution terms associated with fluid memory effects are replaced by an alternative state-space representation, the parameters of which are obtained by using realization theory. The mathematical model established is validated by comparison to experimental results of a very flexible barge. Two types of time-domain simulations are performed: dynamic response of the initially inert structure to incident regular waves and transient response of the structure after it is released from a displaced condition in still water. The accuracy and the efficiency of the simulations based on the state-space model representations are compared to those that integrate the convolutions.

The current state of play in human neural stem cell models : what we have learnt from the rodent

Rodent (mouse and rat) models have been crucial in developing our understanding of human neurogenesis and neural stem cell (NSC) biology. The study of neurogenesis in rodents has allowed us to begin to understand adult human neurogenesis and in particular, protocols established for isolation and in vitro propagation of rodent NSCs have successfully been applied to the expansion of human NSCs. Furthermore, rodent models have played a central role in studying NSC function in vivo and in the development of NSC transplantation strategies for cell therapy applications. Rodents and humans share many similarities in the process of neurogenesis and NSC biology however distinct species differences are important considerations for the development of more efficient human NSC therapeutic applications. Here we review the important contributions rodent studies have had to our understanding of human neurogenesis and to the development of in vitro and in vivo NSC research. Species differences will be discussed to identify key areas in need of further development for human NSC therapy applications.

Reliability models for existing structures based on dynamic state estimation and data based asymptotic extreme value analysis

The problem of time variant reliability analysis of existing structures subjected to stationary random dynamic excitations is considered. The study assumes that samples of dynamic response of the structure, under the action of external excitations, have been measured at a set of sparse points on the structure. The utilization of these measurements m in updating reliability models, postulated prior to making any measurements, is considered. This is achieved by using dynamic state estimation methods which combine results from Markov process theory and Bayes' theorem. The uncertainties present in measurements as well as in the postulated model for the structural behaviour are accounted for. The samples of external excitations are taken to emanate from known stochastic models and allowance is made for ability (or lack of it) to measure the applied excitations. The future reliability of the structure is modeled using expected structural response conditioned on all the measurements made. This expected response is shown to have a time varying mean and a random component that can be treated as being weakly stationary. For linear systems, an approximate analytical solution for the problem of reliability model updating is obtained by combining theories of discrete Kalman filter and level crossing statistics. For the case of nonlinear systems, the problem is tackled by combining particle filtering strategies with data based extreme value analysis. In all these studies, the governing stochastic differential equations are discretized using the strong forms of Ito-Taylor's discretization schemes. The possibility of using conditional simulation strategies, when applied external actions are measured, is also considered. The proposed procedures are exemplifiedmby considering the reliability analysis of a few low-dimensional dynamical systems based on synthetically generated measurement data. The performance of the procedures developed is also assessed based on a limited amount of pertinent Monte Carlo simulations. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.