A simple Bayesian decision-theoretic design for dose-finding trials

A flexible and simple Bayesian decision-theoretic design for dose-finding trials is proposed in this paper. In order to reduce the computational burden, we adopt a working model with conjugate priors, which is flexible to fit all monotonic dose-toxicity curves and produces analytic posterior distributions. We also discuss how to use a proper utility function to reflect the interest of the trial. Patients are allocated based on not only the utility function but also the chosen dose selection rule. The most popular dose selection rule is the one-step-look-ahead (OSLA), which selects the best-so-far dose. A more complicated rule, such as the two-step-look-ahead, is theoretically more efficient than the OSLA only when the required distributional assumptions are met, which is, however, often not the case in practice. We carried out extensive simulation studies to evaluate these two dose selection rules and found that OSLA was often more efficient than two-step-look-ahead under the proposed Bayesian structure. Moreover, our simulation results show that the proposed Bayesian method's performance is superior to several popular Bayesian methods and that the negative impact of prior misspecification can be managed in the design stage.

Decision-theoretic designs for dose-finding clinical trials with multiple outcomes

A decision-theoretic framework is proposed for designing sequential dose-finding trials with multiple outcomes. The optimal strategy is solvable theoretically via backward induction. However, for dose-finding studies involving k doses, the computational complexity is the same as the bandit problem with k-dependent arms, which is computationally prohibitive. We therefore provide two computationally compromised strategies, which is of practical interest as the computational complexity is greatly reduced: one is closely related to the continual reassessment method (CRM), and the other improves CRM and approximates to the optimal strategy better. In particular, we present the framework for phase I/II trials with multiple outcomes. Applications to a pediatric HIV trial and a cancer chemotherapy trial are given to illustrate the proposed approach. Simulation results for the two trials show that the computationally compromised strategy can perform well and appear to be ethical for allocating patients. The proposed framework can provide better approximation to the optimal strategy if more extensive computing is available.

Effects of Low Dose Irradiation on the K-Value and Hypoxanthine Concentration of Fish Fillets

Fillets of five fish species were irradiated at 0, 1 and 3kGy to investigate whether the K-value test of freshness can be applied to irradiated fish. Following irradiation, the fillets were stored on ice and sampled regularly for K-value analysis. Hypoxanthine (Hx) and total nucleotide content were also determined on fillets of two species. K-values of irradiated fillets were generally lower than those of unirradiated controls. Hypoxanthine levels paralleled the K-value changes. These results indicated that quality standards based on K-values or Hx levels that have been set for unirradiated species cannot be directly applied to fish that has been irradiated. Total nucleotide content did not appear to be affected by irradiation.

Buckling in polymer monolayers: Molecular-weight dependence

We present systematic investigations of buckling in Langmuir monolayers of polyvinyl acetate formed at the air-water interface. On compression the polymer monolayers are converted to a continuous membrane with a thickness of ~2–3 nm of well-defined periodicity, lambdab. Above a certain surface concentration the membrane undergoes a morphological transition buckling, leading to the formation of striped patterns. The periodicity seems to depend on molecular weight as per the predictions of the gravity-bending buckling formalism of Milner et al. for fluidlike films on water. However anomalously low values of bending rigidity and Young's modulus are obtained using this formalism. Hence we have considered an alternative model of buckling-based solidlike films on viscoelastic substrates. The values of bending rigidity and Young's modulus obtained by this method, although lower than expected, are closer to the bulk values. Remarkably, no buckling is found to occur above a certain molecular weight. We have tried to explain the observed molecular-weight dependence in terms of the variation in isothermal compressive modulus of the monolayers with surface concentration as well as provided possible explanations for the obtained low values of mechanical properties similar to that observed for ultrathin polymer films.

Partial intervertebral fusion secures successful outcomes after thoracoscopic anterior scoliosis correction: A low-dose computed tomography study

Study Design Retrospective review of prospectively collected data. Objectives To analyze intervertebral (IV) fusion after thoracoscopic anterior spinal fusion (TASF) and explore the relationship between fusion scores and key clinical variables. Summary of Background Information TASF provides comparable correction with some advantages over posterior approaches but reported mechanical complications, and their relationship to non-union and graft material is unclear. Similarly, the optimal combination of graft type and implant stiffness for effecting successful radiologic union remains undetermined. Methods A subset of patients from a large single-center series who had TASF for progressive scoliosis underwent low-dose computed tomographic scans 2 years after surgery. The IV fusion mass in the disc space was assessed using the 4-point Sucato scale, where 1 indicates <50% and 4 indicates 100% bony fusion of the disc space. The effects of rod diameter, rod material, graft type, fusion level, and mechanical complications on fusion scores were assessed. Results Forty-three patients with right thoracic major curves (mean age 14.9 years) participated in the study. Mean fusion scores for patient subgroups ranged from 1.0 (IV levels with rod fractures) to 2.2 (4.5-mm rod with allograft), with scores tending to decrease with increasing rod size and stiffness. Graft type (autograft vs. allograft) did not affect fusion scores. Fusion scores were highest in the middle levels of the rod construct (mean 2.52), dropping off by 20% to 30% toward the upper and lower extremities of the rod. IV levels where a rod fractured had lower overall mean fusion scores compared to levels without a fracture. Mean total Scoliosis Research Society (SRS) questionnaire scores were 98.9 from a possible total of 120, indicating a good level of patient satisfaction. Conclusions Results suggest that 100% radiologic fusion of the entire disc space is not necessary for successful clinical outcomes following thoracoscopic anterior selective thoracic fusion.

Effect of seasonal conditions on fleece weight and its components in merino sheep grazing Mitchell grass pasture in North West Queensland

SUMMARY Seasonal conditions in the pre to post natal period and selected periods before and during wool growth were described using climatic measures and estimates of the quality and quantity of pasture on offer derived from a validated pasture production model (GRASP). The variation in greasy and clean fleece weight, yield, staple length, fibre diameter, neck and side wrinkle score of Merinos grazing Mitchell grass in north west Queensland was explained in terms of these pasture and climatic measures and animal characteristics such as reproductive status, age and skin area. Multiple regression equations predicting clean and greasy fleece weight from the proportion of days in the wool growth period that the green pool in the pasture was less than one kg/ha, the percentage utilisation of the pasture, age, reproductive status and skin area of the ewes explained 87% and 79% of the variation respectively. Equations with similar predictors explained 58-85% of the variation of the other components. The inclusion of pasture conditions in the pre to post natal period did not significantly improve the predictions of the animal’s later performance. 22nd Biennial Conference.

Influence of nitrogen based supplements on live weight, fertility and mortality of heifers grazing dry season native pasture

Supplements containing urea or biuret were fed in the dry season to yearling and two year old pregnant heifers grazing native spear grass pastures in north Queensland. Liveweight change and survival during the dry season and fertility in the following year were measured. In the first experiment during a relatively favourable dry season, supplementation significantly (P<0.01) reduced liveweight loss in yearling heifers (5 vs. 32 kg). In the following year during a drought, supplement significantly (P<.01) reduced liveweight loss in yearling heifers (32 vs. 41 kg) and significantly (P <0.01) reduced mortalities (23.5% vs. 5.2%) in pregnant and lactating heifers. The supplement had no significant effect on subsequent fertility in either experiment. 14th Biennial Conference.

Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) tests on granular pavement reinforced with geogrids– Case study

The use of geogrids in granular pavement layers could increase the modulus and the stiffness of granular layer and hence the required layer thickness can be reduced. Though, geogrids are being used in granular pavements to provide lateral restraint, bearing capacity, and membrane tension support, very limited studies have been carried out to investigate the effects of geogrids on modulus and stiffness of granular layer. In this study, two sections of a granular pavement were constructed: one with a geogrid at the bottom of the base layer and the other without a geogrid. Two sections were then tested using Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) and FWD results were analysed to determine the effect of geogrid on the overall modulus and stiffness of the granular pavement. The results suggested that the pavement section with geogrid has higher overall modulus and deflection ratio compared to the pavement section without geogrid.

Osteopenia and rickets in the extremely low birth weight infant: A survey of the incidence and a radiological classification

A review was carried out of the radiographs of twenty-five infants with birth weights under 1000 G, who survived for more than twenty-eight days; eighteen of these had enough suitable films for a survey of the progressive bone changes which occur in these infants, including estimation of humeral cortical cross-sectional area. The incidence of the changes has been assessed and a typical progression of radiographic appearances has been shown, with a suggested system of staging. All infants showed some loss of bone mineral, with frank changes of rickets occurring in forty-four percent. Aetiological factors are mainly concerned with the difficulty of supplying and ensuring absorption of sufficient bone mineral (calcium and phosphate) and vitamin D. Liver immaturity may be another factor. Disease states additional to prematurity accentuate the problem. Rib fractures occurring around 80–90 days post-nataEy commonly draw attention to the bone disorder and are probably the major clinical factor of importance; there is a high incidence of associated lung disease of uncertain pathology. Attention is drawn to possible confusion with other bone disorders in the post-natal period.

Effect of phosphine dose on sorption in wheat

BACKGROUND: In spite of the extensive use of phosphine fumigation around the world to control insects in stored grain, and the knowledge that grain sorbs phosphine, the effect of concentration on sorption has not been quantified. A laboratory study was undertaken, therefore, to investigate the effect of phosphine dose on sorption in wheat. Wheat was added to glass flasks to achieve filling ratios of 0.25-0.95, and the flasks were sealed and injected with phosphine at 0.1-1.5 mg L-1 based on flask volume. Phosphine concentration was monitored for 8 days at 25°C and 55% RH. RESULTS: When sorption occurred, phosphine concentration declined with time and was approximately first order, i.e. the data fitted an exponential decay equation. Percentage sorption per day was directly proportional to filling ratio, and was negatively correlated with dose for any given filling ratio. Based on the results, a tenfold increase in dose would result in a halving of the sorption constant and the percentage daily loss. Wheat was less sorptive if it was fumigated for a second time. CONCLUSIONS: The results have implications for the use of phosphine for control of insects in stored wheat. This study shows that dose is a factor that must be considered when trying to understand the impact of sorption on phosphine concentration, and that there appears to be a limit to the capacity of wheat to sorb phosphine.

Baseline responses of Alphitobius diaperinus (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae) to spinosad, and susceptibility of broiler populations in eastern and southern Australia

Spinosad was proposed as a potential chemical for control of lesser mealworm, Alphitobius diaperinus (Panzer) (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae), in Australian broiler houses after the detection of strong cyfluthrin resistance in many beetle populations. In 2004-2006, spinosad susceptibility of 13 beetle populations from eastern and southern Australian broiler houses and a cyfluthrin/fenitrothion-resistant reference population was determined using topical application, and was compared with the susceptibility of an insecticide-susceptible reference population. Comparisons of dose-response curves and baseline data showed that all populations, including the insecticide-susceptible population, were roughly equivalent in their response to spinosad, indicating no preexisting spinosad resistance. Two field populations, including the resistant reference population, which had confirmed cyfluthrin/fenitrothion- resistance, showed no cross-resistance to spinosad. There was no significant correlation between beetle weight and LC99.9. A discriminating concentration of 3% spinosad was set to separate resistant and susceptible individuals. Considering the levels of spinosad resistance that have been recorded in other insect pests, the sustained future usefulness of spinosad as a broiler house treatment will rely on effective integrated beetle management programs combined with carefully planned chemical use strategies.

Normative values for corneal nerve morphology assessed using corneal confocal microscopy: A multinational normative data set

OBJECTIVE Corneal confocal microscopy is a novel diagnostic technique for the detection of nerve damage and repair in a range of peripheral neuropathies, in particular diabetic neuropathy. Normative reference values are required to enable clinical translation and wider use of this technique. We have therefore undertaken a multicenter collaboration to provide worldwide age-adjusted normative values of corneal nerve fiber parameters. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A total of 1,965 corneal nerve images from 343 healthy volunteers were pooled from six clinical academic centers. All subjects underwent examination with the Heidelberg Retina Tomograph corneal confocal microscope. Images of the central corneal subbasal nerve plexus were acquired by each center using a standard protocol and analyzed by three trained examiners using manual tracing and semiautomated software (CCMetrics). Age trends were established using simple linear regression, and normative corneal nerve fiber density (CNFD), corneal nerve fiber branch density (CNBD), corneal nerve fiber length (CNFL), and corneal nerve fiber tortuosity (CNFT) reference values were calculated using quantile regression analysis. RESULTS There was a significant linear age-dependent decrease in CNFD (-0.164 no./mm(2) per year for men, P < 0.01, and -0.161 no./mm(2) per year for women, P < 0.01). There was no change with age in CNBD (0.192 no./mm(2) per year for men, P = 0.26, and -0.050 no./mm(2) per year for women, P = 0.78). CNFL decreased in men (-0.045 mm/mm(2) per year, P = 0.07) and women (-0.060 mm/mm(2) per year, P = 0.02). CNFT increased with age in men (0.044 per year, P < 0.01) and women (0.046 per year, P < 0.01). Height, weight, and BMI did not influence the 5th percentile normative values for any corneal nerve parameter. CONCLUSIONS This study provides robust worldwide normative reference values for corneal nerve parameters to be used in research and clinical practice in the study of diabetic and other peripheral neuropathies.

Cyanide poisoning in cattle from Dysphania glomulifera (red crumbweed): Using the internet for rapid plant identification and diagnostic advice: Case Report

A 300-strong Angus-Brahman cattle herd near Springsure, central Queensland, was being fed Acacia shirleyi (lancewood) browse during drought and crossed a 5-hectare, previously burnt area with an almost pure growth of Dysphania glomulifera subspecies glomulifera (red crumbweed) on their way to drinking water. Forty cows died of cyanide poisoning over 2 days before further access to the plant was prevented. A digital image of a plant specimen made on a flat-bed scanner and transmitted by email was used to identify D glomulifera. Specific advice on the plant's poisonous properties and management of the case was then provided by email within 2 hours of an initial telephone call by the field veterinarian to the laboratory some 600 km away. The conventional method using physical transport of a pressed dried plant specimen to confirm the identification took 5 days. D glomulifera was identified in the rumen of one of two cows necropsied. The cyanogenic potential of D glomulifera measured 4 days after collection from the site of cattle deaths was 18,600 mg HCN/kg in dry matter. The lethal dose of D glomulifera for a 420 kg cow was estimated as 150 to 190 g wet weight. The plant also contained 4.8% KNO3 equivalent in dry matter, but nitrate-nitrite poisoning was not involved in the deaths.

Prospective decrease in progesterone concentrations in female lightweight rowers during the competition season compared with the off-season: A controlled study examining weight loss and intensive exercise

The purpose of this study was to monitor ovarian hormone function response to intense exercise and body weight changes in female athletes. Ovarian hormone function was evaluated in 12 female lightweight rowers and 10 age-height-weight matched sedentary controls. Ovarian hormone function was assessed during consecutive competition season and off season, by measurement of peak and average alternative day overnight urinary oestrone glucuronide (E1G) and pregnanediol glucuronide (PdG) excretion. Competition season was associated with a 5.8 kg (9.3%) body weight loss in the lightweight rowers. Significantly lower competition season peak and average urinary excretion of PdG were found in the lightweight rowers compared with the controls. Lower competition season peak and average urinary excretion of E1G were also found in the lightweight rowers compared with the controls, but the difference did not reach significance. The number of rowing training hours was a significant determinant of peak PdG excretion in the rowers (R2 = 0.40; p<0.02). The seasonal suppression of PdG excretion was associated with degree of weight loss (R2 = 0.46; p<0.01). The competition related decrease in E1G and PdG excretion for the lightweight rowers was predominantly restored during the off season when exercise intensity and duration were decreased and body weight increased. These results showed a significant (p<0.05) reduction in progesterone metabolite excretion and a non-significant decrease in oestrone metabolite excretion associated with intensive competition season training loads and body weight reduction in female lightweight rowers.

Weight bearing physical activity for performance and bone health in prepubertal girls

This study assessed the status of bone and cardiovascular health in young, prepubertal females (aged 9 to 11 years) during a school based intervention program involving weight bearing physical activity. A study of 10 months duration was conducted in four primary schools in the Melbourne suburbs. It involved a physical activity group (n=38) and an aged-matched control group (n=33). Baseline data including pubertal status, health-related fitness, bone mass and body composition were obtained pre and post the intervention programme. All children had their bone mineral density monitored. Bone mineral density and body composition measurements were performed by DXA using the Hologic QDR 2000 bone densitometer. At the completion of the program the activity group had accrued significantly greater bone mass at total body, lumbar spine, leg and femoral neck when expressed as BMC or BMD.