Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs

In this paper we develop methods for estimation and forecasting in large timevarying parameter vector autoregressive models (TVP-VARs). To overcome computational constraints with likelihood-based estimation of large systems, we rely on Kalman filter estimation with forgetting factors. We also draw on ideas from the dynamic model averaging literature and extend the TVP-VAR so that its dimension can change over time. A final extension lies in the development of a new method for estimating, in a time-varying manner, the parameter(s) of the shrinkage priors commonly-used with large VARs. These extensions are operationalized through the use of forgetting factor methods and are, thus, computationally simple. An empirical application involving forecasting inflation, real output, and interest rates demonstrates the feasibility and usefulness of our approach.

Using VARs and TVP-VARs with Many Macroeconomic Variables

This paper discusses the challenges faced by the empirical macroeconomist and methods for surmounting them. These challenges arise due to the fact that macroeconometric models potentially include a large number of variables and allow for time variation in parameters. These considerations lead to models which have a large number of parameters to estimate relative to the number of observations. A wide range of approaches are surveyed which aim to overcome the resulting problems. We stress the related themes of prior shrinkage, model averaging and model selection. Subsequently, we consider a particular modelling approach in detail. This involves the use of dynamic model selection methods with large TVP-VARs. A forecasting exercise involving a large US macroeconomic data set illustrates the practicality and empirical success of our approach.

Data-based priors for vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients

This paper proposes full-Bayes priors for time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) which are more robust and objective than existing choices proposed in the literature. We formulate the priors in a way that they allow for straightforward posterior computation, they require minimal input by the user, and they result in shrinkage posterior representations, thus, making them appropriate for models of large dimensions. A comprehensive forecasting exercise involving TVP-VARs of different dimensions establishes the usefulness of the proposed approach.

Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions

There is a vast literature that specifies Bayesian shrinkage priors for vector autoregressions (VARs) of possibly large dimensions. In this paper I argue that many of these priors are not appropriate for multi-country settings, which motivates me to develop priors for panel VARs (PVARs). The parametric and semi-parametric priors I suggest not only perform valuable shrinkage in large dimensions, but also allow for soft clustering of variables or countries which are homogeneous. I discuss the implications of these new priors for modelling interdependencies and heterogeneities among different countries in a panel VAR setting. Monte Carlo evidence and an empirical forecasting exercise show clear and important gains of the new priors compared to existing popular priors for VARs and PVARs.

Derivation of soil-specific streaming potential electrical parameters from hydrodynamic characteristics of partially saturated soils

Water movement in unsaturated soils gives rise to measurable electrical potential differences that are related to the flow direction and volumetric fluxes, as well as to the soil properties themselves. Laboratory and field data suggest that these so-called streaming potentials may be several orders of magnitudes larger than theoretical predictions that only consider the influence of the relative permeability and electrical conductivity on the self potential (SP) data. Recent work has improved predictions somewhat by considering how the volumetric excess charge in the pore space scales with the inverse of water saturation. We present a new theoretical approach that uses the flux-averaged excess charge, not the volumetric excess charge, to predict streaming potentials. We present relationships for how this effective excess charge varies with water saturation for typical soil properties using either the water retention or the relative permeability function. We find large differences between soil types and the predictions based on the relative permeability function display the best agreement with field data. The new relationships better explain laboratory data than previous work and allow us to predict the recorded magnitudes of the streaming potentials following a rainfall event in sandy loam, whereas previous models predict values that are three orders of magnitude too small. We suggest that the strong signals in unsaturated media can be used to gain information about fluxes (including very small ones related to film flow), but also to constrain the relative permeability function, the water retention curve, and the relative electrical conductivity function.

Direct magnetic resonance arthrography of the wrist with axial traction: A feasibility study to assess joint cartilage.

PURPOSE: To assess the impact of axial traction during acquisition of direct magnetic resonance (MR) arthrography of the wrist with regard to joint space width and amount of contrast material between the opposing cartilage surfaces. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fifteen consecutive patients (12 male, mean age 38.1 years) were included in this Institutional Review Board-approved prospective study. Three-compartment wrist MR arthrographies were performed between October and December 2009 on a 3 T unit using a fat-suppressed T1-weighted isotropic high-resolution volumetric interpolated breathhold examination (VIBE) sequence in the coronal plane, with and without axial traction (3 kg). Two radiologists measured radiocarpal (radioscaphoid, radiolunate) and midcarpal (lunocapitate, hamatolunate) joint space widths, with and without traction, and assessed the amount of contrast material between the opposing cartilage surfaces using a three-point scale: 0 = absence, 1 = partial, 2 = complete. RESULTS: With traction, joint space width increased significantly at the radioscaphoid (Delta = 0.78 mm, P < 0.01), radiolunate (Delta = 0.18 mm, P < 0.01), and lunocapitate (Delta = 0.45 mm, P < 0.01) spaces, and both observers detected significantly more contrast material between the cartilage surfaces. At the hamatolunate space, the differences in joint space width (Delta = 0.14 mm, P = 0.54) and amount of contrast material were not significant. CONCLUSION: Direct wrist MR arthrography with axial traction of 3 kg increases joint space width at the radiocarpal and lunocapitate spaces, and prompts better coverage of the articular cartilage by the contrast material. J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2011;. (c) 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Growing up with bilateral hippocampal atrophy: from childhood to teenage.

The respective roles of the medial temporal lobe (MTL) structures in memory are controversial. Some authors put forward a modular account according to which episodic memory and recollection-based processes are crucially dependent on the hippocampal formation whereas semantic acquisition and familiarity-based processes rely on the adjacent parahippocampal gyri. Others defend a unitary view. We report the case of VJ, a boy with developmental amnesia of most likely perinatal onset diagnosed at the age of 8. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), including quantitative volumetric measurements of the hippocampal formation and of the entorhinal, perirhinal, and temporopolar cortices, showed severe, bilateral atrophy of the hippocampal formation, fornix and mammillary bodies; by contrast, the perirhinal cortex was within normal range and the entorhinal and temporopolar cortex remained within two standard deviations (SDs) from controls' mean. We examined the development of his semantic knowledge from childhood to teenage as well as his recognition and cued recall memory abilities. On tasks tapping semantic memory, VJ increased his raw scores across years at the same rate as children from large standardisation samples, except for one task; he achieved average performance, consistent with his socio-educational background. He performed within normal range on 74% of recognition tests and achieved average to above average scores on 42% of them despite very severe impairment on 82% of episodic recall tasks. Both faces and landscapes-scenes gave rise to above average scores when tested with coloured stimuli. Cued recall, although impaired, was largely superior to free recall. This case supports a modular account of the MTL with episodic, but not semantic memory depending on the hippocampal formation. Furthermore, the overall pattern of findings is consistent with evidence from both brain-damaged and neuroimaging studies indicating that recollection requires intact hippocampal formation and familiarity relies, at least partly, on the adjacent temporal lobe cortex.

Hyperresponders vs. nonresponder patients after renal denervation: do they differ?

BACKGROUND: Blood pressure (BP) response after renal denervation (RDN) is highly variable. Besides baseline BP, no reliable predictors of response have been consistently identified. The differences between patients showing a major BP decrease after RDN vs. nonresponders have not been studied so far. AIM AND METHODS: We identified extreme BP responders (first quintile) and nonresponders (fifth quintile) to RDN defined according to office or 24-h ambulatory BP in the European Network COordinating research on Renal Denervation database (n = 109) and compared the baseline characteristics and BP changes 6 months after RDN in both subsets. RESULTS: In extreme responders defined according to ambulatory BP, baseline BP and BP changes 6 months after RDN were similar for office and out-of-the office BP. In contrast, extreme responders defined according to office BP were characterized by a huge white-coat effect at baseline, with dramatic shrinkage at 6 months. Compared with nonresponders, extreme responders defined according to office BP were more frequently women, had higher baseline office--but not ambulatory--BP, and higher estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). In contrast, when considering ambulatory BP decrease to define extreme responders and nonresponders, the single relevant difference between both subsets was baseline ambulatory BP. CONCLUSION: This study suggests a major overestimation of BP response after RDN in extreme responders defined according to office, but not ambulatory BP. The association of lower eGFR with poor response to RDN is consistent with our previous analysis. The increased proportion of women in extreme responders may reflect sex differences in drug adherence.

Thymus involution in alloxan diabetes: analysis of mast cells

We previously reported that alloxan-induced diabetes results in reduction in the number and reactivity of mast cells at different body sites. In this study, the influence of diabetes on thymic mast cells was investigated. Thymuses from diabetic rats showed marked alterations including shrinkage, thymocyte depletion, and increase in the extracellular matrix network, as compared to those profiles seen in normal animals. Nevertheless, we noted that the number and reactivity of mast cells remained unchanged. These findings indicate that although diabetes leads to critical alterations in the thymus, the local mast cell population is refractory to its effect. This suggests that thymic mast cells are under a different regulation as compared to those located in other tissues.

Targeting Angiogenesis in Glioma - Challenges and Pitfalls

Malignant gliomas, notably glioblastoma are among the most vascularized and angiogenic cancers, and microvascular proliferation is one of the hallmarks for the diagnosis of glioblastoma. Angiogenesis is regulated by a balance of pro- and antiangiogenic signals; overexpression of VEGF and activation of its receptors, most notable VEGFR-2 and -3, results in endothelial cell proliferation and leaky vasculature. Heterogeneous perfusion and oxygenation, peritumoral edema and increased interstitial pressure are the consequence. Both endothelial and tumour cells are strongly dependent on integrin-mediated adhesion for cell proliferation, survival, migration and invasion.Strategies aiming at inhibition of cell signaling and angiogenesis, including integrin inhibitors, have been clinically investigated in gliomas over the last 5 years. Radiological responses, a decreased requirement of corticosteroids and temporary improvement in performance status have repeatedly been observed. Toxicity was mild-moderate and manageable, notably there was no evidence for a substantially increased incidence of intracranial bleeding. However definitive comparative (randomized !) investigation has failed to demonstrate improved outcome with singleagent inhibition of EGFR, or PDGFR or VEGF/VEGFRs pathways in recurrent glioblastoma. Definitive phase III trials combining the anti- VEGF monoclonal antibody bevacizumab, or cilengitide, a peptidic integrininhibitor, together with temozolomide and radiotherapy are ongoing (accrual completed).The integration of anti-angiogenic strategies in the management of malignant glioma also poses entirely new challenges in patient management: 1) Many agents are known for increasing the risk of thrombosis, embolism and intracranial bleeding. 2) Evaluation of treatment efficacy is difficult and new biomarkers of activity, including functional, metabolic or molecular imaging techniques are urgently needed. Normalization of vasculature leads to decrease in contrast enhancement without necessarily reflecting tumour shrinkage. Tumour heterogeneity, putative prognostic or predictive factors require early controlled trials, novel trial designs and endpoints.3) Activation of alternate pathways and tumour escape mechanisms may require combination of multiple agents, which is often not feasible due to regulatory restrictions and potential complex toxicities. Emerging clinical and experimental evidence suggests that anti-angiogenic drugs might need to be combined with drugs targeting tumour adaptive mechanisms in addition to cytotoxic chemotherapy and irradiation for a maximal antitumour effect.

Brain network analysis of patients with Temporal Lobe Epilepsy

Patients with Temporal Lobe Epilepsy (TLE) suffer from widespread subtle white matter abnormalities and abnormal functional connectivity extending beyond the affected lobe, as revealed by Diffusion Tensor MR Imaging, volumetric and functional MRI studies. Diffusion Spectrum Imaging (DSI) is a diffusion imaging technique with high angular resolution for improving the mapping of white matter pathways. In this study, we used DSI, connectivity matrices and topological measures to investigate how the alteration in structural connectivity influences whole brain structural networks. Eleven patients with right-sided TLE and hippocampal sclerosis and 18 controls underwent our DSI protocol at 3T. The cortical and subcortical grey matters were parcellated into 86 regions of interest and the connectivity between every region pair was estimated using global tractography and a connectivity matrix (the adjacency matrix of the structural network). We then compared the networks of patients and controls using topological measures. In patients, we found a higher characteristic path length and a lower clustering coefficient compared to controls. Local measures at node level of the clustering and efficiency showed a significant difference after a multiple comparison correction (Bonferroni). These significant nodes were located within as well outside the temporal lobe, and the localisation of most of them was consistent with regions known to be part of epileptic networks in TLE. Our results show altered connectivity patterns that are concordant with the mapping of functional epileptic networks in patients with TLE. Further studies are needed to establish the relevance of these findings for the propagation of epileptic activity, cognitive deficits in medial TLE and outcome of epilepsy surgery in individual patients.

Notch signaling in the pigmented epithelium of the anterior eye segment promotes ciliary body development at the expense of iris formation.

The ciliary body and iris are pigmented epithelial structures in the anterior eye segment that function to maintain correct intra-ocular pressure and regulate exposure of the internal eye structures to light, respectively. The cellular and molecular factors that mediate the development of the ciliary body and iris from the ocular pigmented epithelium remain to be fully elucidated. Here, we have investigated the role of Notch signaling during the development of the anterior pigmented epithelium by using genetic loss- and gain-of-function approaches. Loss of canonical Notch signaling results in normal iris development but absence of the ciliary body. This causes progressive hypotony and over time leads to phthisis bulbi, a condition characterized by shrinkage of the eye and loss of structure/function. Conversely, Notch gain-of-function results in aniridia and profound ciliary body hyperplasia, which causes ocular hypertension and glaucoma-like disease. Collectively, these data indicate that Notch signaling promotes ciliary body development at the expense of iris formation and reveals novel animal models of human ocular pathologies.

A three-year aeropalynological study in Estepona (southern Spain).

An aeropalynological study was carried out in the atmosphere of Estepona, a very popular tourist resort situated in the "Costa del Sol", (southern Spain) based on the data obtained during a three year air-monitoring programme (March 1995 to March 1998) using a volumetric pollen trap. The 34 taxa that reached a 10-day mean air pollen concentration equal to or greater than 1 grain of pollen/m(3) of air are reflected in the calendar. The first 10 taxa, in order of abundance, were: Cupressaceae, Olea europaea, Quercus, Poaceae, Urticaceae, Plantago, Pinus, Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthaceae, Ericaceae and Castanea, the first 3 of which accounted for approximately 56 % of the annual total pollen count. The greatest diversity of pollen type occurred during spring, while the highest pollen concentrations were reached from February-June, when approximately more than 80 % of the annual total pollen was registered. The lowest concentrations were obtaining during January, August and September. The annual quantity of pollen collected, the intensity and the dates on which the maximum peaks were recorded differed for the 3 years studied, which can be explained by reference to various meteorological parameters, especially rainfall and temperature. The pollen calendar spectrum is typically Mediterranean and similar to those of nearby localities, in which many pollen types are represented and the long tails indicating long flowering periods.

Apoptotic markers in protozoan parasites.

ABSTRACT: The execution of the apoptotic death program in metazoans is characterized by a sequence of morphological and biochemical changes that include cell shrinkage, presentation of phosphatidylserine at the cell surface, mitochondrial alterations, chromatin condensation, nuclear fragmentation, membrane blebbing and the formation of apoptotic bodies. Methodologies for measuring apoptosis are based on these markers. Except for membrane blebbing and formation of apoptotic bodies, all other events have been observed in most protozoan parasites undergoing cell death. However, while techniques exist to detect these markers, they are often optimised for metazoan cells and therefore may not pick up subtle differences between the events occurring in unicellular organisms and multi-cellular organisms.In this review we discuss the markers most frequently used to analyze cell death in protozoan parasites, paying special attention to changes in cell morphology, mitochondrial activity, chromatin structure and plasma membrane structure/permeability. Regarding classical regulators/executors of apoptosis, we have reviewed the present knowledge of caspase-like and nuclease activities.

In vitro effects of amodiaquine on paired Schistosoma mansoni adult worms at concentrations of less than 5 µg/mL

In this study, the in vitro effects of amodiaquine (AQ) monotherapy on the egg output of paired adult Schistosoma mansoni worms and their survival during in vitro culture were assessed. In addition, the gross morphological alterations of male and female worms caused by AQ were visually observed under a dissecting microscope. AQ significantly reduced the daily egg output of paired adult S. mansoni worms following incubation for 14 days at 1-5 µg/mL, but not at 0.5 µg/mL, compared with the control group. AQ also reduced the survival of male and female worms at concentrations of 2 and 5 µg/mL, respectively. Moreover, exposure to 5 µg/mL AQ caused severe swelling and/or localisation of black content in the body of all male and female worms within one or two days of incubation; subsequently, shrinkage in the male worms and elongation in the female worms were observed. The initial morphological alterations caused by AQ occurred along the intestinal tract of the male and female worms. To our knowledge, this is the first study to report not only the efficacy of AQ at concentrations lower than 5 µg/mL on paired adult S. mansoni worms, but also the effects of AQ on the intestinal tracts of worms in in vitro culture.