Design from the everyday: continuously evolving, embedded exploratory prototypes

One of the major challenges in the design of social technologies is the evaluation of their qualities of use and how they are appropriated over time. While the field of HCI abounds in short-term exploratory design and studies of use, relatively little attention has focused on the continuous development of prototypes longitudinally and studies of their emergent use. We ground the exploration and analysis of use in the everyday world, embracing contingency and open-ended use, through the use of a continuously-available exploratory prototype. Through examining use longitudinally, clearer insight can be gained of realistic, non-novelty usage and appropriation into everyday use. This paper sketches out a framework for design that puts a premium on immediate use and evolving the design in response to use and user feedback. While such design practices with continuously developing systems are common in the design of social technologies, they are little documented. We describe our approach and reflect upon its key characteristics, based on our experiences from two case studies. We also present five major patterns of long-term usage which we found useful for design.

The level and quality of Value-at-Risk disclosure by commercial banks

In this paper we study both the level of Value-at-Risk (VaR) disclosure and the accuracy of the disclosed VaR figures for a sample of US and international commercial banks. To measure the level of VaR disclosures, we develop a VaR Disclosure Index that captures many different facets of market risk disclosure. Using panel data over the period 1996–2005, we find an overall upward trend in the quantity of information released to the public. We also find that Historical Simulation is by far the most popular VaR method. We assess the accuracy of VaR figures by studying the number of VaR exceedances and whether actual daily VaRs contain information about the volatility of subsequent trading revenues. Unlike the level of VaR disclosure, the quality of VaR disclosure shows no sign of improvement over time. We find that VaR computed using Historical Simulation contains very little information about future volatility.

A comparison of alternative bankruptcy prediction models

Early models of bankruptcy prediction employed financial ratios drawn from pre-bankruptcy financial statements and performed well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Since then there has been an ongoing effort in the literature to develop models with even greater predictive performance. A significant innovation in the literature was the introduction into bankruptcy prediction models of capital market data such as excess stock returns and stock return volatility, along with the application of the Black–Scholes–Merton option-pricing model. In this note, we test five key bankruptcy models from the literature using an upto- date data set and find that they each contain unique information regarding the probability of bankruptcy but that their performance varies over time. We build a new model comprising key variables from each of the five models and add a new variable that proxies for the degree of diversification within the firm. The degree of diversification is shown to be negatively associated with the risk of bankruptcy. This more general model outperforms the existing models in a variety of in-sample and out-of-sample tests.

Motorcycle protective clothing : protection from injury or just the weather?

Background Apart from helmets, little is known about the effectiveness of motorcycle protective clothing in reducing injuries in crashes. The study aimed to quantify the association between usage of motorcycle clothing and injury in crashes. Methods and findings Cross-sectional analytic study. Crashed motorcyclists (n = 212, 71% of identified eligible cases) were recruited through hospitals and motorcycle repair services. Data was obtained through structured face-to-face interviews. The main outcome was hospitalization and motorcycle crash-related injury. Poisson regression was used to estimate relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals for injury adjusting for potential confounders. Results Motorcyclists were significantly less likely to be admitted to hospital if they crashed wearing motorcycle jackets (RR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.69–0.91), pants (RR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.25–0.94), or gloves (RR = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.26–0.66). When garments included fitted body armour there was a significantly reduced risk of injury to the upper body (RR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.66–0.89), hands and wrists (RR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.38–0.81), legs (RR = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.40–0.90), feet and ankles (RR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.35–0.83). Non-motorcycle boots were also associated with a reduced risk of injury compared to shoes or joggers (RR = 0.46, 95% CI: 0.28–0.75). No association between use of body armour and risk of fracture injuries was detected. A substantial proportion of motorcycle designed gloves (25.7%), jackets (29.7%) and pants (28.1%) were assessed to have failed due to material damage in the crash. Conclusions Motorcycle protective clothing is associated with reduced risk and severity of crash related injury and hospitalization, particularly when fitted with body armour. The proportion of clothing items that failed under crash conditions indicates a need for improved quality control. While mandating usage of protective clothing is not recommended, consideration could be given to providing incentives for usage of protective clothing, such as tax exemptions for safety gear, health insurance premium reductions and rebates.

The impact of taxes on optimal portfolio choice : an Australian study

Taxes are an important component of investing that is commonly overlooked in both the literature and in practice. For example, many understand that taxes will reduce an investment’s return, but less understood is the risk-sharing nature of taxes that also reduces the investment’s risk. This thesis examines how taxes affect the optimal asset allocation and asset location decision in an Australian environment. It advances the model of Horan & Al Zaman (2008), improving the method by which the present value of tax liabilities are calculated, by using an after-tax risk-free discount rate, and incorporating any new or reduced tax liabilities generated into its expected risk and return estimates. The asset allocation problem is examined for a range of different scenarios using Australian parameters, including different risk aversion levels, personal marginal tax rates, investment horizons, borrowing premiums, high or low inflation environments, and different starting cost bases. The findings support the Horan & Al Zaman (2008) conclusion that equities should be held in the taxable account. In fact, these findings are strengthened with most of the efficient frontier maximising equity holdings in the taxable account instead of only half. Furthermore, these findings transfer to the Australian case, where it is found that taxed Australian investors should always invest into equities first through the taxable account before investing in super. However, untaxed Australian investors should invest their equity first through superannuation. With borrowings allowed in the taxable account (no borrowing premium), Australian taxed investors should hold 100% of the superannuation account in the risk-free asset, while undertaking leverage in the taxable account to achieve the desired risk-return. Introducing a borrowing premium decreases the likelihood of holding 100% of super in the risk-free asset for taxable investors. The findings also suggest that the higher the marginal tax rate, the higher the borrowing premium in order to overcome this effect. Finally, as the investor’s marginal tax rate increases, the overall allocation to equities should increase due to the increased risk and return sharing caused by taxation, and in order to achieve the same risk/return level as the lower taxation level, the investor must take on more equity exposure. The investment horizon has a minimal impact on the optimal allocation decision in the absence of factors such as mean reversion and human capital.

Investigation of the effect of organics on the water uptake of marine aerosols

Water uptake refers to the ability of atmospheric particles to take up water vapour from the surrounding atmosphere. This is an important property that affects particle size and phase and therefore influences many characteristics of aerosols relevant to air quality and climate. However, the water uptake properties of many important atmospheric aerosol systems, including those related to the oceans, are still not fully understood. Therefore, the primary aim of this PhD research program was to investigate the water uptake properties of marine aerosols. In particular, the effect of organics on marine aerosol water uptake was investigated. Field campaigns were conducted at remote coastal sites on the east coast of Australia (Agnes Water; March-April 2007) and west coast of Ireland (Mace Head; June 2007), and laboratory measurements were performed on bubble-generated sea spray aerosols. A combined Volatility-Hygroscopicity-Tandem Differential Mobility Analyser (VH-TDMA) was employed in all experiments. This system probes the changes in the hygroscopic properties of nanoparticles as volatile organic components are progressively evaporated. It also allows particle composition to be inferred from combined volatility-hygroscopicity measurements. Frequent new particle formation and growth events were observed during the Agnes Water campaign. The VH-TDMA was used to investigate freshly nucleated particles (17-22.5 nm) and it was found that the condensation of sulphate and/or organic vapours was responsible for driving particle growth during the events. Aitken mode particles (~40 nm) were also measured with the VH-TDMA. In 3 out of 18 VH-TDMA scans evaporation of a volatile, organic component caused a very large increase in hygroscopicity that could only be explained by an increase in the absolute water uptake of the particle residuals, and not merely an increase in their relative hygroscopicity. This indicated the presence of organic components that were suppressing the hygroscopic growth of mixed particles on the timescale of humidification in the VH-TDMA (6.5 secs). It was suggested that the suppression of water uptake was caused by either a reduced rate of hygroscopic growth due to the presence of organic films, or organic-inorganic interactions in solution droplets that had a negative effect on hygroscopicity. Mixed organic-inorganic particles were rarely observed by the VH-TDMA during the summer campaign conducted at Mace Head. The majority of particles below 100 nm in clean, marine air appeared to be sulphates neutralised to varying degrees by ammonia. On one unique day, 26 June 2007, particularly large concentrations of sulphate aerosol were observed and identified as volcanic emissions from Iceland. The degree of neutralisation of the sulphate aerosol by ammonia was calculated by the VH-TDMA and found to compare well with the same quantity measured by an aerosol mass spectrometer. This was an important verification of the VH-TMDA‘s ability to identify ammoniated sulphate aerosols based on the simultaneous measurement of aerosol volatility and hygroscopicity. A series of measurements were also conducted on sea spray aerosols generated from Moreton Bay seawater samples in a laboratory-based bubble chamber. Accumulation mode sea spray particles (38-173 nm) were found to contain only a minor organic fraction (< 10%) that had little effect on particle hygroscopicity. These results are important because previous studies have observed that accumulation mode sea spray particles are predominantly organic (~80% organic mass fraction). The work presented here suggests that this is not always the case, and that there may be currently unknown factors that are controlling the transfer of organics to the aerosol phase during the bubble bursting process. Taken together, the results of this research program have significantly improved our understanding of organic-containing marine aerosols and the way they interact with water vapour in the atmosphere.

Volatile properties of particles emitted by compressed natural gas and diesel buses during steady state and transient driving modes

Volatile properties of particle emissions from four compressed natural gas (CNG) and four diesel buses were investigated under steady state and transient driving modes on a chassis dynamometer. The exhaust was diluted utilising a full-flow continuous volume sampling system and passed through a thermodenuder at controlled temperature. Particle number concentration and size distribution were measured with a condensation particle counter and a scanning mobility particle sizer, respectively. We show that, while almost all the particles emitted by the CNG buses were in the nanoparticle size range, at least 85% and 98% were removed at 100ºC and 250ºC, respectively. Closer analysis of the volatility of particles emitted during transient cycles showed that volatilisation began at around 40°C with the majority occurring by 80°C. Particles produced during hard acceleration from rest exhibited lower volatility than that produced during other times of the cycle. Based on our results and the observation of ash deposits on the walls of the tailpipes, we suggest that these non-volatile particles were composed mostly of ash from lubricating oil. Heating the diesel bus emissions to 100ºC removed ultrafine particle numbers by 69% to 82% when a nucleation mode was present and just 18% when it was not.

Formation mechanisms of secondary organic aerosols in relation to laser printer emissions

Due to their large surface area, complex chemical composition and high alveolar deposition rate, ultrafine particles (UFPs) (< 0.1 ìm) pose a significant risk to human health and their toxicological effects have been acknowledged by the World Health Organisation. Since people spend most of their time indoors, there is a growing concern about the UFPs present in some indoor environments. Recent studies have shown that office machines, in particular laser printers, are a significant indoor source of UFPs. The majority of printer-generated UFPs are organic carbon and it is unlikely that these particles are emitted directly from the printer or its supplies (such as paper and toner powder). Thus, it was hypothesised that these UFPs are secondary organic aerosols (SOA). Considering the widespread use of printers and human exposure to these particles, understanding the processes involved in particle formation is of critical importance. However, few studies have investigated the nature (e.g. volatility, hygroscopicity, composition, size distribution and mixing state) and formation mechanisms of these particles. In order to address this gap in scientific knowledge, a comprehensive study including state-of-art instrumental methods was conducted to characterise the real-time emissions from modern commercial laser printers, including particles, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and ozone (O3). The morphology, elemental composition, volatility and hygroscopicity of generated particles were also examined. The large set of experimental results was analysed and interpreted to provide insight into: (1) Emissions profiles of laser printers: The results showed that UFPs dominated the number concentrations of generated particles, with a quasi unimodal size distribution observed for all tests. These particles were volatile, non-hygroscopic and mixed both externally and internally. Particle microanalysis indicated that semi-volatile organic compounds occupied the dominant fraction of these particles, with only trace quantities of particles containing Ca and Fe. Furthermore, almost all laser printers tested in this study emitted measurable concentrations of VOCs and O3. A positive correlation between submicron particles and O3 concentrations, as well as a contrasting negative correlation between submicron particles and total VOC concentrations were observed during printing for all tests. These results proved that UFPs generated from laser printers are mainly SOAs. (2) Sources and precursors of generated particles: In order to identify the possible particle sources, particle formation potentials of both the printer components (e.g. fuser roller and lubricant oil) and supplies (e.g. paper and toner powder) were investigated using furnace tests. The VOCs emitted during the experiments were sampled and identified to provide information about particle precursors. The results suggested that all of the tested materials had the potential to generate particles upon heating. Nine unsaturated VOCs were identified from the emissions produced by paper and toner, which may contribute to the formation of UFPs through oxidation reactions with ozone. (3) Factors influencing the particle emission: The factors influencing particle emissions were also investigated by comparing two popular laser printers, one showing particle emissions three orders of magnitude higher than the other. The effects of toner coverage, printing history, type of paper and toner, and working temperature of the fuser roller on particle number emissions were examined. The results showed that the temperature of the fuser roller was a key factor driving the emission of particles. Based on the results for 30 different types of laser printers, a systematic positive correlation was observed between temperature and particle number emissions for printers that used the same heating technology and had a similar structure and fuser material. It was also found that temperature fluctuations were associated with intense bursts of particles and therefore, they may have impact on the particle emissions. Furthermore, the results indicated that the type of paper and toner powder contributed to particle emissions, while no apparent relationship was observed between toner coverage and levels of submicron particles. (4) Mechanisms of SOA formation, growth and ageing: The overall hypothesis that UFPs are formed by reactions with the VOCs and O3 emitted from laser printers was examined. The results proved this hypothesis and suggested that O3 may also play a role in particle ageing. In addition, knowledge about the mixing state of generated particles was utilised to explore the detailed processes of particle formation for different printing scenarios, including warm-up, normal printing, and printing without toner. The results indicated that polymerisation may have occurred on the surface of the generated particles to produce thermoplastic polymers, which may account for the expandable characteristics of some particles. Furthermore, toner and other particle residues on the idling belt from previous print jobs were a very clear contributing factor in the formation of laser printer-emitted particles. In summary, this study not only improves scientific understanding of the nature of printer-generated particles, but also provides significant insight into the formation and ageing mechanisms of SOAs in the indoor environment. The outcomes will also be beneficial to governments, industry and individuals.

Termination fees in a ‘bright line’ jurisdiction

We seek to statistically inform the debate regarding the Australian Takeovers Panel’s ‘bright line’ policy towards break fees. Based on 313 takeovers from 2002 to 2006, 85 involving break fees, we find post-bid competition to be unrelated to break fee usage and inversely related to bid success. We also find that break fee usage has a detrimental effect on shareholder wealth as measured by both the final bid premium and abnormal returns. Therefore, although break fees appear to be neither anticompetitive nor coercive within the Australian context, they do appear to have had a deleterious effect on shareholder wealth.

Physicochemical characterization of particulate emissions from a compression ignition engine employing two injection technologies and three fuels

Alternative fuels and injection technologies are a necessary component of particulate emission reduction strategies for compression ignition engines. Consequently, this study undertakes a physicochemical characterization of diesel particulate matter (DPM) for engines equipped with alternative injection technologies (direct injection and common rail) and alternative fuels (ultra low sulfur diesel, a 20% biodiesel blend, and a synthetic diesel). Particle physical properties were addressed by measuring particle number size distributions, and particle chemical properties were addressed by measuring polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and reactive oxygen species (ROS). Particle volatility was determined by passing the polydisperse size distribution through a thermodenuder set to 300 °C. The results from this study, conducted over a four point test cycle, showed that both fuel type and injection technology have an impact on particle emissions, but injection technology was the more important factor. Significant particle number emission (54%–84%) reductions were achieved at half load operation (1% increase–43% decrease at full load) with the common rail injection system; however, the particles had a significantly higher PAH fraction (by a factor of 2 to 4) and ROS concentrations (by a factor of 6 to 16) both expressed on a test-cycle averaged basis. The results of this study have significant implications for the health effects of DPM emissions from both direct injection and common rail engines utilizing various alternative fuels.

Multiple founders and firm value

In this paper, we highlight the existence of multi-founder firms, which were founded by multiple individuals (with no family connections) who are still actively involved in the firm as directors and/or managers. These firms provide a unique setting to shed further light on the net valuation effects of founder involvement. In particular, multi-founder firms provide us with the opportunity to examine the benefits and costs to shareholders of multiple founders involved as directors, CEOs and managers in the same firm. Our analysis indicates that multi-founder firms are more valuable than all other types of firms, including single-founder firms and family firms, with the valuation premium positively related to the number of founders involved in the firm. Further analysis confirms that this valuation premium is linked to the direct involvement of the multiple founders as directors and CEOs. However, further founder involvement in vice president positions has a negative relationship with firm value.

Jackknife for bias reduction in predictive regressions

One of the fundamental econometric models in finance is predictive regression. The standard least squares method produces biased coefficient estimates when the regressor is persistent and its innovations are correlated with those of the dependent variable. This article proposes a general and convenient method based on the jackknife technique to tackle the estimation problem. The proposed method reduces the bias for both single- and multiple-regressor models and for both short- and long-horizon regressions. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by simulations. An empirical application to equity premium prediction using the dividend yield and the short rate highlights the differences between the results by the standard approach and those by the bias-reduced estimator. The significant predictive variables under the ordinary least squares become insignificant after adjusting for the finite-sample bias. These discrepancies suggest that bias reduction in predictive regressions is important in practical applications.

The preferences of private equity investors in selecting target acquisitions : an international investigation

This study investigates the characteristics and attributes that private equity investors prefer when selecting target acquisitions. These characteristics are examined against a matched sample of firms subject to corporate acquisitions via tender/merger offer during 2000-2009, across seven countries: Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, the USA, France, Germany and Sweden. We show that firm-specific characteristics are more influential in target selection than external or institutional variables. In particular, private equity targets exhibit lower stock volatility and long-term growth prospects, are larger, and have greater abnormal operating income relative to tender/merger offer target firms. Further, private equity bidders exhibit 'home bias', implying that familiarity motivates target selection. Institutional factors remain largely insignificant across all tests.