Ozone database in support of CMIP5 simulations: results and corresponding radiative forcing

A continuous tropospheric and stratospheric vertically resolved ozone time series, from 1850 to 2099, has been generated to be used as forcing in global climate models that do not include interactive chemistry. A multiple linear regression analysis of SAGE I+II satellite observations and polar ozonesonde measurements is used for the stratospheric zonal mean dataset during the well-observed period from 1979 to 2009. In addition to terms describing the mean annual cycle, the regression includes terms representing equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and the 11-yr solar cycle variability. The EESC regression fit coefficients, together with pre-1979 EESC values, are used to extrapolate the stratospheric ozone time series backward to 1850. While a similar procedure could be used to extrapolate into the future, coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations indicate that future stratospheric ozone abundances are likely to be significantly affected by climate change, and capturing such effects through a regression model approach is not feasible. Therefore, the stratospheric ozone dataset is extended into the future (merged in 2009) with multimodel mean projections from 13 CCMs that performed a simulation until 2099 under the SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A1B greenhouse gas scenario and the A1 adjusted halogen scenario in the second round of the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal-2) Activity. The stratospheric zonal mean ozone time series is merged with a three-dimensional tropospheric data set extracted from simulations of the past by two CCMs (CAM3.5 and GISSPUCCINI)and of the future by one CCM (CAM3.5). The future tropospheric ozone time series continues the historical CAM3.5 simulation until 2099 following the four different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Generally good agreement is found between the historical segment of the ozone database and satellite observations, although it should be noted that total column ozone is overestimated in the southern polar latitudes during spring and tropospheric column ozone is slightly underestimated. Vertical profiles of tropospheric ozone are broadly consistent with ozonesondes and in-situ measurements, with some deviations in regions of biomass burning. The tropospheric ozone radiative forcing (RF) from the 1850s to the 2000s is 0.23Wm−2, lower than previous results. The lower value is mainly due to (i) a smaller increase in biomass burning emissions; (ii) a larger influence of stratospheric ozone depletion on upper tropospheric ozone at high southern latitudes; and possibly (iii) a larger influence of clouds (which act to reduce the net forcing) compared to previous radiative forcing calculations. Over the same period, decreases in stratospheric ozone, mainly at high latitudes, produce a RF of −0.08Wm−2, which is more negative than the central Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) value of −0.05Wm−2, but which is within the stated range of −0.15 to +0.05Wm−2. The more negative value is explained by the fact that the regression model simulates significant ozone depletion prior to 1979, in line with the increase in EESC and as confirmed by CCMs, while the AR4 assumed no change in stratospheric RF prior to 1979. A negative RF of similar magnitude persists into the future, although its location shifts from high latitudes to the tropics. This shift is due to increases in polar stratospheric ozone, but decreases in tropical lower stratospheric ozone, related to a strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, particularly through the latter half of the 21st century. Differences in trends in tropospheric ozone among the four RCPs are mainly driven by different methane concentrations, resulting in a range of tropospheric ozone RFs between 0.4 and 0.1Wm−2 by 2100. The ozone dataset described here has been released for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model simulations in netCDF Climate and Forecast (CF) Metadata Convention at the PCMDI website (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/).

Natural genetic variation in caesium (Cs) accumulation by Arabidopsis thaliana

Ingestion of caesium (Cs) radioisotopes poses a health risk to humans. Crop varieties that accumulate less Cs in their edible tissues may provide a useful countermeasure. This study was performed to determine whether quantitative genetics on a model plant (Arabidopsis thaliana) might inform such 'safe'-crop strategies. Arabidopsis accessions and recombinant inbred lines (RILs), from Landsberg erecta (Ler) x Cape Verdi Island (Cvi), Ler x Columbia (Col), and Niederzenz (Nd) x Col mapping populations, were grown on agar supplemented with subtoxic levels of Cs. Shoot Cs concentration varied up to three-fold, and shoot f. wt varied up to 25-fold within populations. The heritability of growth and Cs accumulation traits ranged from 0.06 to 0.28. Four quantitative trait loci (QTL) accounted for > 80 of the genetic contribution to the total phenotypic variation in shoot Cs concentration in the Ler x Col population. QTL identified in this study, in particular, QTL co-localizing to the top and bottom regions of Chromosomes I and V in two different mapping populations, are amenable to positional cloning and, through collinearity, may inform selection or breeding strategies for the development of 'safe' crops.

MEGAPOLI: concept of multi-scale modelling of megacity impact on air quality and climate

The EU FP7 Project MEGAPOLI: "Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation" (http://megapoli.info) brings together leading European research groups, state-of-the-art scientific tools and key players from non-European countries to investigate the interactions among megacities, air quality and climate. MEGAPOLI bridges the spatial and temporal scales that connect local emissions, air quality and weather with global atmospheric chemistry and climate. The suggested concept of multi-scale integrated modelling of megacity impact on air quality and climate and vice versa is discussed in the paper. It requires considering different spatial and temporal dimensions: time scales from seconds and hours (to understand the interaction mechanisms) up to years and decades (to consider the climate effects); spatial resolutions: with model down- and up-scaling from street- to global-scale; and two-way interactions between meteorological and chemical processes.

Mid-Holocene and glacial-maximum vegetation geography of the northern continents and Africa.

BIOME 6000 is an international project to map vegetation globally at mid-Holocene (6000 14C yr bp) and last glacial maximum (LGM, 18,000 14C yr bp), with a view to evaluating coupled climate-biosphere model results. Primary palaeoecological data are assigned to biomes using an explicit algorithm based on plant functional types. This paper introduces the second Special Feature on BIOME 6000. Site-based global biome maps are shown with data from North America, Eurasia (except South and Southeast Asia) and Africa at both time periods. A map based on surface samples shows the method’s skill in reconstructing present-day biomes. Cold and dry conditions at LGM favoured extensive tundra and steppe. These biomes intergraded in northern Eurasia. Northern hemisphere forest biomes were displaced southward. Boreal evergreen forests (taiga) and temperate deciduous forests were fragmented, while European and East Asian steppes were greatly extended. Tropical moist forests (i.e. tropical rain forest and tropical seasonal forest) in Africa were reduced. In south-western North America, desert and steppe were replaced by open conifer woodland, opposite to the general arid trend but consistent with modelled southward displacement of the jet stream. The Arctic forest limit was shifted slighly north at 6000 14C yr bp in some sectors, but not in all. Northern temperate forest zones were generally shifted greater distances north. Warmer winters as well as summers in several regions are required to explain these shifts. Temperate deciduous forests in Europe were greatly extended, into the Mediterranean region as well as to the north. Steppe encroached on forest biomes in interior North America, but not in central Asia. Enhanced monsoons extended forest biomes in China inland and Sahelian vegetation into the Sahara while the African tropical rain forest was also reduced, consistent with a modelled northward shift of the ITCZ and a more seasonal climate in the equatorial zone. Palaeobiome maps show the outcome of separate, independent migrations of plant taxa in response to climate change. The average composition of biomes at LGM was often markedly different from today. Refugia for the temperate deciduous and tropical rain forest biomes may have existed offshore at LGM, but their characteristic taxa also persisted as components of other biomes. Examples include temperate deciduous trees that survived in cool mixed forest in eastern Europe, and tropical evergreen trees that survived in tropical seasonal forest in Africa. The sequence of biome shifts during a glacial-interglacial cycle may help account for some disjunct distributions of plant taxa. For example, the now-arid Saharan mountains may have linked Mediterranean and African tropical montane floras during enhanced monsoon regimes. Major changes in physical land-surface conditions, shown by the palaeobiome data, have implications for the global climate. The data can be used directly to evaluate the output of coupled atmosphere-biosphere models. The data could also be objectively generalized to yield realistic gridded land-surface maps, for use in sensitivity experiments with atmospheric models. Recent analyses of vegetation-climate feedbacks have focused on the hypothesized positive feedback effects of climate-induced vegetation changes in the Sahara/Sahel region and the Arctic during the mid-Holocene. However, a far wider spectrum of interactions potentially exists and could be investigated, using these data, both for 6000 14C yr bp and for the LGM.

Present-day and mid-Holocene biomes reconstructed from pollen and plant macrofossil data from the former Soviet Union and Mongolia

Fossil pollen data supplemented by tree macrofossil records were used to reconstruct the vegetation of the Former Soviet Union and Mongolia at 6000 years. Pollen spectra were assigned to biomes using the plant-functional-type method developed by Prentice et al. (1996). Surface pollen data and a modern vegetation map provided a test of the method. This is the first time such a broad-scale vegetation reconstruction for the greater part of northern Eurasia has been attempted with objective techniques. The new results confirm previous regional palaeoenvironmental studies of the mid-Holocene while providing a comprehensive synopsis and firmer conclusions. West of the Ural Mountains temperate deciduous forest extended both northward and southward from its modern range. The northern limits of cool mixed and cool conifer forests were also further north than present. Taiga was reduced in European Russia, but was extended into Yakutia where now there is cold deciduous forest. The northern limit of taiga was extended (as shown by increased Picea pollen percentages, and by tree macrofossil records north of the present-day forest limit) but tundra was still present in north-eastern Siberia. The boundary between forest and steppe in the continental interior did not shift substantially, and dry conditions similar to present existed in western Mongolia and north of the Aral Sea.

Reconciliation of halogen-induced ozone loss with the total-column ozone record

The observed depletion of the ozone layer from the 1980s onwards is attributed to halogen source gases emitted by human activities. However, the precision of this attribution is complicated by year-to-year variations in meteorology, that is, dynamical variability, and by changes in tropospheric ozone concentrations. As such, key aspects of the total-column ozone record, which combines changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, remain unexplained, such as the apparent absence of a decline in total-column ozone levels before 1980, and of any long-term decline in total-column ozone levels in the tropics. Here we use a chemistry–climate model to estimate changes in halogen-induced ozone loss between 1960 and 2010; the model is constrained by observed meteorology to remove the effects of dynamical variability, and driven by emissions of tropospheric ozone precursors to separate out changes in tropospheric ozone. We show that halogen-induced ozone loss closely followed stratospheric halogen loading over the studied period. Pronounced enhancements in ozone loss were apparent in both hemispheres following the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and, in particular, Mount Pinatubo, which significantly enhanced stratospheric aerosol loads. We further show that approximately 40% of the long-term non-volcanic ozone loss occurred before 1980, and that long-term ozone loss also occurred in the tropical stratosphere. Finally, we show that halogen-induced ozone loss has declined by over 10% since stratospheric halogen loading peaked in the late 1990s, indicating that the recovery of the ozone layer is well underway.

Association of vitamin D status with arterial blood pressure and hypertension risk: a mendelian randomisation study

BACKGROUND: Low plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentration is associated with high arterial blood pressure and hypertension risk, but whether this association is causal is unknown. We used a mendelian randomisation approach to test whether 25(OH)D concentration is causally associated with blood pressure and hypertension risk. METHODS: In this mendelian randomisation study, we generated an allele score (25[OH]D synthesis score) based on variants of genes that affect 25(OH)D synthesis or substrate availability (CYP2R1 and DHCR7), which we used as a proxy for 25(OH)D concentration. We meta-analysed data for up to 108 173 individuals from 35 studies in the D-CarDia collaboration to investigate associations between the allele score and blood pressure measurements. We complemented these analyses with previously published summary statistics from the International Consortium on Blood Pressure (ICBP), the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) consortium, and the Global Blood Pressure Genetics (Global BPGen) consortium. FINDINGS: In phenotypic analyses (up to n=49 363), increased 25(OH)D concentration was associated with decreased systolic blood pressure (β per 10% increase, -0·12 mm Hg, 95% CI -0·20 to -0·04; p=0·003) and reduced odds of hypertension (odds ratio [OR] 0·98, 95% CI 0·97-0·99; p=0·0003), but not with decreased diastolic blood pressure (β per 10% increase, -0·02 mm Hg, -0·08 to 0·03; p=0·37). In meta-analyses in which we combined data from D-CarDia and the ICBP (n=146 581, after exclusion of overlapping studies), each 25(OH)D-increasing allele of the synthesis score was associated with a change of -0·10 mm Hg in systolic blood pressure (-0·21 to -0·0001; p=0·0498) and a change of -0·08 mm Hg in diastolic blood pressure (-0·15 to -0·02; p=0·01). When D-CarDia and consortia data for hypertension were meta-analysed together (n=142 255), the synthesis score was associated with a reduced odds of hypertension (OR per allele, 0·98, 0·96-0·99; p=0·001). In instrumental variable analysis, each 10% increase in genetically instrumented 25(OH)D concentration was associated with a change of -0·29 mm Hg in diastolic blood pressure (-0·52 to -0·07; p=0·01), a change of -0·37 mm Hg in systolic blood pressure (-0·73 to 0·003; p=0·052), and an 8·1% decreased odds of hypertension (OR 0·92, 0·87-0·97; p=0·002). INTERPRETATION: Increased plasma concentrations of 25(OH)D might reduce the risk of hypertension. This finding warrants further investigation in an independent, similarly powered study.

Genomic evidence for the Pleistocene and recent population history of Native Americans

How and when the Americas were populated remains contentious. Using ancient and modern genome-wide data, we found that the ancestors of all present-day Native Americans, including Athabascans and Amerindians, entered the Americas as a single migration wave from Siberia no earlier than 23 thousand years ago (ka) and after no more than an 8000-year isolation period in Beringia. After their arrival to the Americas, ancestral Native Americans diversified into two basal genetic branches around 13 ka, one that is now dispersed across North and South America and the other restricted to North America. Subsequent gene flow resulted in some Native Americans sharing ancestry with present-day East Asians (including Siberians) and, more distantly, Australo-Melanesians. Putative “Paleoamerican” relict populations, including the historical Mexican Pericúes and South American Fuego-Patagonians, are not directly related to modern Australo-Melanesians as suggested by the Paleoamerican Model.

Balancing the role of the dental school in teaching, research and patient care; including care for underserved areas

Inequalities within dentistry are common and are reflected in wide differences in the levels of oral health and the standard of care available both within and between countries and communities. Furthermore there are patients, particularly those with special treatment needs, who do not have the same access to dental services as the general public. The dental school should aim to recruit students from varied backgrounds into all areas covered by the oral healthcare team and to train students to treat the full spectrum of patients including those with special needs. It is essential, however, that the dental student achieves a high standard of clinical competence and this cannot be gained by treating only those patients with low expectations for care. Balancing these aspects of clinical education is difficult. Research is an important stimulus to better teaching and better clinical care. It is recognized that dental school staff should be active in research, teaching, clinical work and frequently administration. Maintaining a balance between the commitments to clinical care, teaching and research while also taking account of underserved areas in each of these categories is a difficult challenge but one that has to be met to a high degree in a successful, modern dental school.

Relation of pretreatment sequence diversity in NS5A region of HCV genotype 1 with immune response between pegylated-INF/ribavirin therapy outcomes

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection frequently persists despite substantial virus-specific immune responses and the combination of pegylated interferon (INF)-alpha and ribavirin therapy. Major histocompatibility complex class I restricted CD8+ T cells are responsible for the control of viraemia in HCV infection, and several studies suggest protection against viral infection associated with specific HLAs. The reason for low rates of sustained viral response (SVR) in HCV patients remains unknown. Escape mutations in response to cytotoxic T lymphocyte are widely described; however, its influence in the treatment outcome is ill understood. Here, we investigate the differences in CD8 epitopes frequencies from the Los Alamos database between groups of patients that showed distinct response to pegylated alpha-INF with ribavirin therapy and test evidence of natural selection on the virus in those who failed treatment, using five maximum likelihood evolutionary models from PAML package. The group of sustained virological responders showed three epitopes with frequencies higher than Non-responders group, all had statistical support, and we observed evidence of selection pressure in the last group. No escape mutation was observed. Interestingly, the epitope VLSDFKTWL was 100% conserved in SVR group. These results suggest that the response to treatment can be explained by the increase in immune pressure, induced by interferon therapy, and the presence of those epitopes may represent an important factor in determining the outcome of therapy.

New Trypanosoma (Duttonella) vivax genotypes from tsetse flies in East Africa

Salivarian trypanosomes pose a substantial threat to livestock, but their full diversity is not known. To survey trypanosomes carried by tsetse in Tanzania, DNA samples from infected proboscides of Glossina pallidipes and G. swynnertoni were identified using fluorescent fragment length barcoding (FFLB), which discriminates species by size polymorphisms in multiple regions of the ribosomal RNA locus. FELLB identified the trypanosomes in 65 of 105 (61.9%) infected proboscides, revealing 9 mixed infections. Of 7 different FFLB profiles, 2 were similar but not identical to reference West African Trypanosoma vivax; 5 other profiles belonged to known species also identified in fly midguts. Phylogenetic analysis of the glycosomal glyceraldehyde phosphate dehydrogenase gene revealed that the Tanzanian T. vivax samples fell into 2 distinct groups, both outside the main chide of African and South American T. vivax. These new T. vivax genotypes were common and widespread in tsetse in Tanzania. The T. brucei-like trypanosome previously described from tsetse midguts was also found in 2 proboscides, demonstrating a salivarian transmission route. Investigation of mammalian host range and pathogenicity will reveal the importance of these new trypanosomes for the epidemiology and control of animal trypanosomiasis in East Africa.

Deficiency of the human complement regulatory protein factor H associated with low levels of component C9

We identified a 4-year-old Brazilian boy from a family of Japanese descent and history of consanguinity, who suffered from severe recurrent pneumonia. He carries factor H (FH) deficiency associated with reduced levels of component C9 and low serum levels of C3 and factor B. His mother also presented low levels of these proteins and factor I, while his father and sister had only lower levels of FH. Western blot assays confirmed the complete absence of FH and FHL-1 polypeptides in this patient. Sequencing of the proband`s FH cDNA revealed a homozygous G453A substitution, encoding an Arg(127)His change. His mother, father and sister are heterozygous for this substitution. Despite the absence of FH in the plasma, this protein was detected in the patient`s fibroblasts, suggesting that Arg(127) may be important for FH secretion. Low concentrations of C9 were detected in the proband serum but no mutations in the patient`s C9 gene or promoter have been identified, suggesting that this is a consequence of uncontrolled complement activation and high C9 consumption.

Ideal internal kink modes in a differentially rotating cylindrical plasma

The Velikhov effect leading to magnetorotational instability (MRI) is incorporated into the theory of ideal internal kink modes in a differentially rotating cylindrical plasma column. It is shown that this effect can play a stabilizing role for suitably organized plasma rotation profiles, leading to suppression of MHD (magnetohydrodynamic) instabilities in magnetic confinement systems. The role of this effect in the problem of the Suydam and the m = 1 internal kink modes is elucidated, where m is the poloidal mode number.

Nuclear dependence of charm production

Using data taken by SELEX during the 1996-1997 fixed target run at Fermilab, we study the production of charmed hadrons on copper and carbon targets with Sigma(-), p, pi(-), and pi(+) beams. Parametrizing the dependence of the inclusive production cross section on the atomic number A as A(alpha), we determine alpha for D(+), D(0), D(s)(+), D(+)(2010), Lambda(+)(c), and their respective anti-particles, as a function of their transverse momentum p(t) and scaled longitudinal momentum x(F). Within our statistics there is no dependence of alpha on x(F) for any charm species for the interval 0.1 < x(F) < 1.0. The average value of alpha for charm production by pion beams is alpha(meson) = 0.850 +/- 0.028. This is somewhat larger than the corresponding average alpha(baryon) = 0.755 +/- 0.016 for charm production by baryon beams (Sigma(-), p).