Transmission of Chlamydia trachomatis through sexual partnerships: a comparison between three individual-based models and empirical data

Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) in many developed countries. The highest prevalence rates are found among young adults who have frequent partner change rates. Three published individual-based models have incorporated a detailed description of age-specific sexual behaviour in order to quantify the transmission of C. trachomatis in the population and to assess the impact of screening interventions. Owing to varying assumptions about sexual partnership formation and dissolution and the great uncertainty about critical parameters, such models show conflicting results about the impact of preventive interventions. Here, we perform a detailed evaluation of these models by comparing the partnership formation and dissolution dynamics with data from Natsal 2000, a population-based probability sample survey of sexual attitudes and lifestyles in Britain. The data also allow us to describe the dispersion of C. trachomatis infections as a function of sexual behaviour, using the Gini coefficient. We suggest that the Gini coefficient is a useful measure for calibrating infectious disease models that include risk structure and highlight the need to estimate this measure for other STIs.

Varying spin state composition by the choice of capping ligand in a family of molecular chains: detailed analysis of magnetic properties of chromium(III) horseshoes

We report a detailed physical analysis on a family of isolated, antiferro-magnetically (AF) coupled, chromium(III) finite chains, of general formula (Cr(RCO(2))(2)F)(n) where the chain length n = 6 or 7. Additionally, the chains are capped with a selection of possible terminating ligands, including hfac (= 1,1,1,5,5,5-hexafluoropentane-2,4-dionate(1-)), acac (= pentane-2,4-dionate(1-)) or (F)(3). Measurements by inelastic neutron scattering (INS), magnetometery and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy have been used to study how the electronic properties are affected by n and capping ligand type. These comparisons allowed the subtle electronic effects the choice of capping ligand makes for odd member spin 3/2 ground state and even membered spin 0 ground state chains to be investigated. For this investigation full characterisation of physical properties have been performed with spin Hamiltonian parameterisation, including the determination of Heisenberg exchange coupling constants and single ion axial and rhombic anisotropy. We reveal how the quantum spin energy levels of odd or even membered chains can be modified by the type of capping ligand terminating the chain. Choice of capping ligands enables Cr-Cr exchange coupling to be adjusted by 0, 4 or 24%, relative to Cr-Cr exchange coupling within the body of the chain, by the substitution of hfac, acac or (F)(3) capping ligands to the ends of the chain, respectively. The manipulation of quantum spin levels via ligands which play no role in super-exchange, is of general interest to the practise of spin Hamilton modelling, where such second order effects are generally not considered of relevance to magnetic properties.

Energy-Economical Heuristically Based Control of Compass Gait Walking on Stochastically Varying Terrain

Investigation uses simulation to explore the inherent tradeoffs ofcontrolling high-speed and highly robust walking robots while minimizing energy consumption. Using a novel controller which optimizes robustness, energy economy, and speed of a simulated robot on rough terrain, the user can adjust their priorities between these three outcome measures and systematically generate a performance curveassessing the tradeoffs associated with these metrics.

Design and Preliminary Results of an Atmospheric-Pressure Model Gas Turbine Combustor Utilizing Varying CO2 Doping Concentration in CH4 to Emulate Biogas Combustion

Utilization of biogas can provide a source of renewable energy in both heat and power generation. Combustion of biogas in land-based gas turbines for power generation is a promising approach to reducing greenhouse gases and US dependence on foreign-source fossil fuels. Biogas is a byproduct from the decomposition of organic matter and consists primarily of CH4 and large amounts of CO2. The focus of this research was to design a combustion device and investigate the effects of increasing levels of CO2 addition to the combustion of pure CH4 with air. Using an atmospheric-pressure, swirl-stabilized dump combustor, emissions data and flame stability limitations were measured and analyzed. In particular, CO2, CO, and NOx emissions were the main focus of the combustion products. Additionally, the occurrence of lean blowout and combustion pressure oscillations, which impose significant limitations in operation ranges for actual gas turbines, was observed. Preliminary kinetic and equilibrium modeling was performed using Cantera and CEA for the CH4/CO2/Air combustion systems to analyze the effect of CO2 upon adiabatic flame temperature and emission levels. The numerical and experimental results show similar dependence of emissions on equivalence ratio, CO2 addition, inlet air temperature, and combustor residence time. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Smooth Hazard Function Estimation for Interval Censored Data with Time Varying Covariates

In this paper we propose methods for smooth hazard estimation of a time variable where that variable is interval censored. These methods allow one to model the transformed hazard in terms of either smooth (smoothing splines) or linear functions of time and other relevant time varying predictor variables. We illustrate the use of this method on a dataset of hemophiliacs where the outcome, time to seroconversion for HIV, is interval censored and left-truncated.

Gauss-Seidel Estimation of Generalized Linear Mixed Models with Application to Poisson Modeling of Spatially Varying Disease Rates

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) provide an elegant framework for the analysis of correlated data. Due to the non-closed form of the likelihood, GLMMs are often fit by computational procedures like penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL). Special cases of these models are generalized linear models (GLMs), which are often fit using algorithms like iterative weighted least squares (IWLS). High computational costs and memory space constraints often make it difficult to apply these iterative procedures to data sets with very large number of cases. This paper proposes a computationally efficient strategy based on the Gauss-Seidel algorithm that iteratively fits sub-models of the GLMM to subsetted versions of the data. Additional gains in efficiency are achieved for Poisson models, commonly used in disease mapping problems, because of their special collapsibility property which allows data reduction through summaries. Convergence of the proposed iterative procedure is guaranteed for canonical link functions. The strategy is applied to investigate the relationship between ischemic heart disease, socioeconomic status and age/gender category in New South Wales, Australia, based on outcome data consisting of approximately 33 million records. A simulation study demonstrates the algorithm's reliability in analyzing a data set with 12 million records for a (non-collapsible) logistic regression model.

DECOMPOSITION OF REGRESSION ESTIMATORS TO EXPLORE THE INFLUENCE OF "UNMEASURED" TIME-VARYING CONFOUNDERS

In environmental epidemiology, exposure X and health outcome Y vary in space and time. We present a method to diagnose the possible influence of unmeasured confounders U on the estimated effect of X on Y and to propose several approaches to robust estimation. The idea is to use space and time as proxy measures for the unmeasured factors U. We start with the time series case where X and Y are continuous variables at equally-spaced times and assume a linear model. We define matching estimator b(u)s that correspond to pairs of observations with specific lag u. Controlling for a smooth function of time, St, using a kernel estimator is roughly equivalent to estimating the association with a linear combination of the b(u)s with weights that involve two components: the assumptions about the smoothness of St and the normalized variogram of the X process. When an unmeasured confounder U exists, but the model otherwise correctly controls for measured confounders, the excess variation in b(u)s is evidence of confounding by U. We use the plot of b(u)s versus lag u, lagged-estimator-plot (LEP), to diagnose the influence of U on the effect of X on Y. We use appropriate linear combination of b(u)s or extrapolate to b(0) to obtain novel estimators that are more robust to the influence of smooth U. The methods are extended to time series log-linear models and to spatial analyses. The LEP plot gives us a direct view of the magnitude of the estimators for each lag u and provides evidence when models did not adequately describe the data.

The effect of a myocardial infarction on the normalized time-varying elastance curve

It has been suggested that the shape of the normalized time-varying elastance curve [E(n)(t(n))] is conserved in different cardiac pathologies. We hypothesize, however, that the E(n)(t(n)) differs quantitatively after myocardial infarction (MI). Sprague-Dawley rats (n = 9) were anesthetized, and the left anterior descending coronary artery was ligated to provoke the MI. A sham-operated control group (CTRL) (n = 10) was treated without the MI. Two months later, a conductance catheter was inserted into the left ventricle (LV). The LV pressure and volume were measured and the E(n)(t(n)) derived. Slopes of E(n)(t(n)) during the preejection period (alpha(PEP)), ejection period (alpha(EP)), and their ratio (beta = alpha(EP)/alpha(PEP)) were calculated, together with the characteristic decay time during isovolumic relaxation (tau) and the normalized elastance at end diastole (E(min)(n)). MI provoked significant LV chamber dilatation, thus a loss in cardiac output (-33%), ejection fraction (-40%), and stroke volume (-30%) (P < 0.05). Also, it caused significant calcium increase (17-fold), fibrosis (2-fold), and LV hypertrophy. End-systolic elastance dropped from 0.66 +/- 0.31 mmHg/microl (CTRL) to 0.34 +/- 0.11 mmHg/microl (MI) (P < 0.05). Normalized elastance was significantly reduced in the MI group during the preejection, ejection, and diastolic periods (P < 0.05). The slope of E(n)(t(n)) during the alpha(PEP) and beta were significantly altered after MI (P < 0.05). Furthermore, tau and end-diastolic E(min)(n) were both significantly augmented in the MI group. We conclude that the E(n)(t(n)) differs quantitatively in all phases of the heart cycle, between normal and hearts post-MI. This should be considered when utilizing the single-beat concept.

Effect of varying injection rates of a saline chaser on aortic enhancement in CT angiography: phantom study

The effect of varying injection rates of a saline chaser on aortic enhancement in computed tomography (CT) angiography was determined. Single-level, dynamic CT images of a physiological flow phantom were acquired between 0 and 50 s after initiation of contrast medium injection. Four injection protocols were applied with identical contrast medium administration (150 ml injected at 5 ml/s). For baseline protocol A, no saline chaser was applied. For protocols B, C, and D, 50 ml of saline was injected at 2.5 ml/s, 5 ml/s, and 10 ml/s, respectively. Injecting the saline chaser at twice the rate as the contrast medium yielded significantly higher peak aortic enhancement values than injecting the saline at half or at the same rate as the contrast medium (P < 0.05). Average peak aortic enhancement (HU) measured 214, 214, 218, and 226 for protocols A, B, C, and D, respectively. The slower the saline-chaser injection rate, the longer the duration of 90% peak enhancement: 13.6, 12.2, and 11.7 s for protocols B, C, and D, respectively (P > 0.05). In CT angiography, saline chaser injected at twice the rate as the contrast medium leads to increased peak aortic enhancement and saline chaser injected at half the rate tends towards prolonging peak aortic enhancement plateau.

Creep and shrinkage behavior of ultra high-performance concrete under compressive loading with varying curing regimes

This Ultra High Performance Concrete research involves observing early-age creep and shrinkage under a compressive load throughout multiple thermal curing regimes. The goal was to mimic the conditions that would be expected of a precast/prestressing plant in the United States, where UHPC beams would be produced quickly to maximize a manufacturing plant’s output. The practice of steam curing green concrete to accelerate compressive strengths for early release of the prestressing tendons was utilized (140°F [60°C], 95% RH, 14 hrs), in addition to the full thermal treatment (195°F [90°C], 95% RH, 48 hrs) while the specimens were under compressive loading. Past experimental studies on creep and shrinkage characteristics of UHPC have only looked at applying a creep load after the thermal treatment had been administered to the specimens, or on ambient cured specimens. However, this research looked at mimicking current U.S. precast/prestressed plant procedures, and thus characterized the creep and shrinkage characteristics of UHPC as it is thermally treated under a compressive load. Michigan Tech has three moveable creep frames to accommodate two loading criteria per frame of 0.2f’ci and 0.6f’ci. Specimens were loaded in the creep frames and moved into a custom built curing chamber at different times, mimicking a precast plant producing several beams throughout the week and applying a thermal cure to all of the beams over the weekend. This thesis presents the effects of creep strain due to the varying curing regimes. An ambient cure regime was used as a baseline for the comparison against the varying thermal curing regimes. In all cases of thermally cured specimens, the compressive creep and shrinkage strains are accelerated to a maximum strain value, and remain consistent after the administration of the thermal cure. An average creep coefficient for specimens subjected to a thermal cure was found to be 1.12 and 0.78 for the high and low load levels, respectively. Precast/pressed plants can expect that simultaneously thermally curing UHPC elements that are produced throughout the week does not impact the post-cure creep coefficient.