970 resultados para Univariate Analysis box-jenkins methodology


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OBJECTIVE: To examine variability in outcome and resource use between ICUs. Secondary aims: to assess whether outcome and resource use are related to ICU structure and process, to explore factors associated with efficient resource use. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cohort study, based on the SAPS 3 database in 275 ICUs worldwide. PATIENTS: 16,560 adults. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Outcome was defined by standardized mortality rate (SMR). Standardized resource use (SRU) was calculated based on length of stay in the ICU, adjusted for severity of acute illness. Each unit was assigned to one of four groups: "most efficient" (SMR and SRU < median); "least efficient" (SMR, SRU > median); "overachieving" (low SMR, high SRU), "underachieving" (high SMR, low SRU). Univariate analysis and stepwise logistic regression were used to test for factors separating "most" from "least efficient" units. Overall median SMR was 1.00 (IQR 0.77-1.28) and SRU 1.07 (0.76-1.58). There were 91 "most efficient", 91 "least efficient", 47 "overachieving", and 46 "underachieving" ICUs. Number of physicians, of full-time specialists, and of nurses per bed, clinical rounds, availability of physicians, presence of emergency department, and geographical region were significant in univariate analysis. In multivariate analysis only interprofessional rounds, emergency department, and geographical region entered the model as significant. CONCLUSIONS: Despite considerable variability in outcome and resource use only few factors of ICU structure and process were associated with efficient use of ICU. This suggests that other confounding factors play an important role.

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Between January 1990 and April 2001, 115 patients received high-dose chemotherapy (HDT) followed by autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) for relapsed or refractory Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). With a median follow-up of 58 months (range, 1 - 175 months), 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were 46% and 58%, respectively. Twelve patients with primary refractory disease had a 5-year PFS of 41% and OS of 58%, not significantly different from those of the remaining cohort. Early and overall regimen related mortality were 7% and 16%, respectively. Male gender (P = 0.04) and a time to relapse (TTR) < 12 months (P = 0.03) were associated with decreased OS by univariate analysis. In multivariate analysis, TTR < 12 months remained statistically significant (P = 0.04). We have confirmed that HDT and ASCT result in long-term survival for a proportion of patients with relapsed or refractory HL. All patients, including those with primary refractory disease, benefited from HDT and ASCT.

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BACKGROUND: Early catheter-related infection is a serious complication in cancer treatment, although risk factors for its occurrence are not well established. The authors conducted a prospective study to identify the risk factors for developing early catheter-related infection. METHODS: All consecutive patients with cancer who underwent insertion of a central venous catheter were enrolled and were followed prospectively during 1 month. The study endpoint was occurrence of early catheter-related infection. RESULTS: Over 10,392 catheter-days of follow-up, 14 of 371 patients had early catheter-related infections (14 patients in 10,392 catheter-days or 1.34 per 1000 catheter-days). The causative pathogens were gram positive in 11 of 14 patients. In univariate analysis, the risk factors for early catheter-related infection were aged <10 years (P = .0001), difficulties during insertion (P < 10(-6)), blood product administration (P < 10(-3)), parenteral nutrition (P < 10(-4)), and use >2 days (P < 10(-6)). In multivariate analysis, 3 variables remained significantly associated with the risk of early catheter-related infection: age <10 years (odds ratio [OR], 18.4; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.9-106.7), difficulties during insertion procedure (OR, 25.6; 95% CI, 4.2-106), and parenteral nutrition (OR, 28.5; 95% CI, 4.2-200). CONCLUSIONS: On the day of insertion, 2 variables were identified that were associated with a high risk of developing an early catheter-related infection: young age and difficulties during insertion. The results from this study may be used to identify patients who are at high risk of infection who may be candidates for preventive strategies.

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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Combined spinal epidural analgesia is effective for fast relief of severe labour pain but has been associated with worrisome decreases in fetal heart rate. Since the reasons for this phenomenon remain elusive, some anaesthesiologists may abstain from using this technique. We postulated that factors unrelated to the neuraxial technique could play a role in the decrease in fetal heart rate. To our knowledge, no prospective study has previously looked into this possibility. METHODS: We collected prospective data on 223 consecutive patients who received combined spinal epidural analgesia (123) or epidural analgesia (100). Maternal blood pressure, analogue pain scores, exogenous infusion of oxytocin, cervical dilatation, maternal age, parity and ethnicity were collected and correlated with the occurrence of decreases in fetal heart rate post combined spinal epidural. RESULTS: Univariate analysis showed a correlation between the incidence of fetal bradycardia and higher maternal pain scores, older maternal age, and combined spinal epidural analgesia. Multivariate analysis revealed that only pain scores and maternal age were independent predictors of fetal bradycardia post neuraxial blockade. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal pain scores and older maternal age are factors unrelated to the neuraxial technique that are independent predictors of fetal bradycardia after neuraxial analgesia for labour.

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INTRODUCTION: Liver cirrhosis develops only in a minority of heavy drinkers. Genetic factors may account for some variation in the progression of fibrosis in alcoholic liver disease (ALD). Transforming growth factor beta 1 (TGFbeta1) is a key profibrogenic cytokine in fibrosis and its gene contains several polymorphic sites. A single nucleotide polymorphism at codon 25 has been suggested to affect fibrosis progression in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection, fatty liver disease, and hereditary hemochromatosis. Its contribution to the progression of ALD has not been investigated sufficiently so far. PATIENTS AND METHODS: One-hundred-and-fifty-one heavy drinkers without apparent ALD, 149 individuals with alcoholic cirrhosis, and 220 alcoholic cirrhotics who underwent liver transplantation (LTX) were genotyped for TGFbeta1 codon 25 variants. RESULTS: Univariate analysis suggested that genotypes Arg/Pro or Pro/Pro are associated with decompensated liver cirrhosis requiring LTX. However, after adjusting for patients' age these genotypes did not confer a significant risk for cirrhosis requiring LTX. CONCLUSION: TGFbeta1 codon 25 genotypes Arg/Pro or Pro/Pro are not associated with alcoholic liver cirrhosis. Our study emphasizes the need for adequate statistical methods and accurate study design when evaluating the contribution of genetic variants to the course of chronic liver diseases.

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BACKGROUND: The outcome of Kaposi sarcoma varies. While many patients do well on highly active antiretroviral therapy, others have progressive disease and need chemotherapy. In order to predict which patients are at risk of unfavorable evolution, we established a prognostic score. METHOD: The survival analysis (Kaplan-Meier method; Cox proportional hazards models) of 144 patients with Kaposi sarcoma prospectively included in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, from January 1996 to December 2004, was conducted. OUTCOME ANALYZED: use of chemotherapy or death. VARIABLES ANALYZED: demographics, tumor staging [T0 or T1 (16)], CD4 cell counts and HIV-1 RNA concentration, human herpesvirus 8 (HHV8) DNA in plasma and serological titers to latent and lytic antigens. RESULTS: Of 144 patients, 54 needed chemotherapy or died. In the univariate analysis, tumor stage T1, CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl, positive HHV8 DNA and absence of antibodies against the HHV8 lytic antigen at the time of diagnosis were significantly associated with a bad outcome.Using multivariate analysis, the following variables were associated with an increased risk of unfavorable outcome: T1 [hazard ratio (HR) 5.22; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.97-9.18], CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl (HR 2.33; 95% CI 1.22-4.45) and positive HHV8 DNA (HR 2.14; 95% CI 1.79-2.85).We created a score with these variables ranging from 0 to 4: T1 stage counted for two points, CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl for one point, and positive HHV8 viral load for one point. Each point increase was associated with a HR of 2.26 (95% CI 1.79-2.85). CONCLUSION: In the multivariate analysis, staging (T1), CD4 cell count (<200 cells/microl), positive HHV8 DNA in plasma, at the time of diagnosis, predict evolution towards death or the need of chemotherapy.

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AIMS: No-reflow after a primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is associated with a high incidence of left ventricular (LV) failure and a poor prognosis. Endothelin-1 (ET-1) is a potent endothelium-derived vasoconstrictor peptide and an important modulator of neutrophil function. Elevated systemic ET-1 levels have recently been reported to predict a poor prognosis in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) treated by primary PCI. We aimed to investigate the relationship between systemic ET-1 plasma levels and no-reflow in a group of AMI patients treated by primary PCI. METHODS AND RESULTS: A group of 51 patients (age 59+/-9.9 years, 44 males) with a first AMI, undergoing successful primary or rescue PCI, were included in the study. Angiographic no-reflow was defined as coronary TIMI flow grade < or =2 or TIMI flow 3 with a final myocardial blush grade < or =2. Blood samples were obtained from all patients on admission for ET-1 levels measurement. No reflow was observed in 31 patients (61%). Variables associated with no-reflow at univariate analysis included culprit lesion of the left anterior coronary descending artery (LAD) (67 vs. 29%, P=0.006) and ET-1 plasma levels (3.95+/-0.7 vs. 3.3+/-0.8 pg/mL, P=0.004). At multivariable logistic regression analysis, ET-1 was the only significant predictor of no-reflow (P=0.03) together with LAD as the culprit vessel (P=0.04). CONCLUSION: ET-1 plasma levels predict angiographic no-reflow after successful primary or rescue PCI. These findings suggest that ET-1 antagonists might be beneficial in the management of no-reflow.

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BACKGROUND: Surfactant protein type B (SPB) is needed for alveolar gas exchange. SPB is increased in the plasma of patients with heart failure (HF), with a concentration that is higher when HF severity is highest. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between plasma SPB and both alveolar-capillary diffusion at rest and ventilation versus carbon dioxide production during exercise. METHODS AND RESULTS: Eighty patients with chronic HF and 20 healthy controls were evaluated consecutively, but the required quality for procedures was only reached by 71 patients with HF and 19 healthy controls. Each subject underwent pulmonary function measurements, including lung diffusion for carbon monoxide and membrane diffusion capacity, and maximal cardiopulmonary exercise test. Plasma SPB was measured by immunoblotting. In patients with HF, SPB values were higher (4.5 [11.1] versus 1.6 [2.9], P=0.0006, median and 25th to 75th interquartile), whereas lung diffusion for carbon monoxide (19.7+/-4.5 versus 24.6+/-6.8 mL/mm Hg per min, P<0.0001, mean+/-SD) and membrane diffusion capacity (28.9+/-7.4 versus 38.7+/-14.8, P<0.0001) were lower. Peak oxygen consumption and ventilation/carbon dioxide production slope were 16.2+/-4.3 versus 26.8+/-6.2 mL/kg per min (P<0.0001) and 29.7+/-5.9 and 24.5+/-3.2 (P<0.0001) in HF and controls, respectively. In the HF population, univariate analysis showed a significant relationship between plasma SPB and lung diffusion for carbon monoxide, membrane diffusion capacity, peak oxygen consumption, and ventilation/carbon dioxide production slope (P<0.0001 for all). On multivariable logistic regression analysis, membrane diffusion capacity (beta, -0.54; SE, 0.018; P<0.0001), peak oxygen consumption (beta, -0.53; SE, 0.036; P=0.004), and ventilation/carbon dioxide production slope (beta, 0.25; SE, 0.026; P=0.034) were independently associated with SPB. CONCLUSIONS: Circulating plasma SPB levels are related to alveolar gas diffusion, overall exercise performance, and efficiency of ventilation showing a link between alveolar-capillary barrier damage, gas exchange abnormalities, and exercise performance in HF.

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PURPOSE: To report the clinical experience with external beam radiotherapy (RT) for AIDS-related lymphoma (ARL) with or without the involvement of the central nervous system (CNS) in HIV-infected patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Clinical outcome of 24 HIV-seropositive patients with ARL treated with RT from 1995 to 2004 was reviewed, testing factors associated with outcome. RESULTS: After 1 and 5 years, the overall survival was 65% and 35%, respectively. The mean RT dose was 31 Gy after normalization to fractions of daily 2 Gy (range, 7.8-47.2 Gy). Radiotherapy dose was associated with survival in univariate (P = .04) and multivariate analysis (P = .01). Other factors in univariate analysis associated with outcome were viral load (VL), highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), ARL stage, and CNS involvement. Patients with CNS involvement achieved complete response in 46% and improved clinical performance was seen in 73%. CONCLUSIONS: After chemotherapy, RT in combination with HAART is highly active, and RT should be encouraged especially after suboptimal responses to induction treatment.

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PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to assess the outcome of patients with primary spinal myxopapillary ependymoma (MPE). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from a series of 85 (35 females, 50 males) patients with spinal MPE were collected in this retrospective multicenter study. Thirty-eight (45%) underwent surgery only and 47 (55%) received postoperative radiotherapy (RT). Median administered radiation dose was 50.4 Gy (range, 22.2-59.4). Median follow-up of the surviving patients was 60.0 months (range, 0.2-316.6). RESULTS: The 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) was 50.4% and 74.8% for surgery only and surgery with postoperative low- (<50.4 Gy) or high-dose (>or=50.4 Gy) RT, respectively. Treatment failure was observed in 24 (28%) patients. Fifteen patients presented treatment failure at the primary site only, whereas 2 and 1 patients presented with brain and distant spinal failure only. Three and 2 patients with local failure presented with concomitant spinal distant seeding and brain failure, respectively. One patient failed simultaneously in the brain and spine. Age greater than 36 years (p = 0.01), absence of neurologic symptoms at diagnosis (p = 0.01), tumor size >or=25 mm (p = 0.04), and postoperative high-dose RT (p = 0.05) were variables predictive of improved PFS on univariate analysis. In multivariate analysis, only postoperative high-dose RT was independent predictors of PFS (p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: The observed pattern of failure was mainly local, but one fifth of the patients presented with a concomitant spinal or brain component. Postoperative high-dose RT appears to significantly reduce the rate of tumor progression.

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OBJECTIVES To analyze the prognostic value of clinical tumor response during chemoradiation for locally advanced head and neck cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS The locoregional response at 50.4Gy was assessed by physical examination (PE) in patients treated within the randomized trial SAKK 10/94 using hyperfractionated radiotherapy (RT), median total dose 74.4Gy with or without cisplatin 20mg/m(2) chemotherapy on 5 consecutive days during weeks 1 and 5 or 6 of RT. Response was classified as a complete response (CR), complete response with uncertainty (Cru), partial response (PR), stable disease (SD), or progressive disease (PD). The primary endpoint was time to treatment failure (TTF) due to any cause. Secondary endpoints included locoregional-recurrence-free survival (LRRFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) and overall survival (OS). Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards (PH) models were applied to analyze the associations between survival endpoints and clinical tumor response. RESULTS A total of 136, 131 and 97 patients were evaluable for response at the primary tumor, lymph nodes and both sites combined, respectively. At 50.4Gy 57/136 (42%), 46/131 (35%) and 21/97 (22%) patients had a good response (CR/Cru vs. PR/SD) at the primary tumor, the lymph nodes, and both sites combined, respectively. The median follow-up times were 11.4, 9.6 and 11.4years for the three groups. Good responses were all significantly associated with improved TTF, LRRFS, DMFS and OS in univariate analysis whereas good response at the primary tumor and lymph nodes remained significantly associated with TTF and OS after multivariate Cox PH models. CONCLUSIONS Locoregional response at 50.4Gy was identified as predictor of oncologic outcome. PE during treatment should not be underestimated in clinical practice.

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Dilatation of the ascending aorta is an important sequel in conotruncal anomalies, such as tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) or d-transposition of the great arteries (TGA). We measured dimensions and their progression at different levels of the ascending aorta in 80 patients. In TOF patients, mean z-score for aortic annulus was 1.65 (range -3.16-6.47), for sinus 1.93 (range -2.28-5.39), for st-junction 4.15 (range 0.0-8.18), and for ascending aorta 3.51 (range -1.23-6.36). Over time, annulus z-scores increased in the univariate analysis [0.07/year, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.01-0.14; p = 0.02], and this was unique to male patients (0.08/year, 95 % CI 0.00-0.15; p = 0.05). z-scores of the ascending aorta decreased (-0.1/year, 95 % CI -0.18 to -0.02; p = 0.02), and this was confined to patients without aortic regurgitation (AR; -0.09/year, 95 % CI -0.18 to -0.01; p = 0.04). In TGA, mean z-score for the aortic annulus was 2.13 (range -3.71-8.39), for sinus 1.77 (range -3.04-6.69), for st-junction 1.01 (range -5.44-6.71), and for ascending aorta 0.82 (range -4.91-6.46). In bivariate analysis, annulus z-scores decreased in females (-0.14/year, 95 % CI -0.25 to -0.03; p = 0.01) and in patients without AR (-0.07/year, 95 % CI -0.14-0.0; p = 0.03). z-scores of the ascending aorta increased significantly in males (0.08/year, 95 % CI 0.0 to 0.16; p = 0.05) and in patients with AR (0.12/year, 95 % CI 0.03-0.21; p = 0.01). In conclusion, TOF and TGA z-scores of the ascending aorta differ significantly from those of the normal population. Progression of z-scores over time is influenced by diagnosis, sex, and presence of AR.

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BACKGROUND Programmed cell death 1 (PD-1) receptor triggering by PD ligand 1 (PD-L1) inhibits T cell activation. PD-L1 expression was detected in different malignancies and associated with poor prognosis. Therapeutic antibodies inhibiting PD-1/PD-L1 interaction have been developed. MATERIALS AND METHODS A tissue microarray (n=1491) including healthy colon mucosa and clinically annotated colorectal cancer (CRC) specimens was stained with two PD-L1 specific antibody preparations. Surgically excised CRC specimens were enzymatically digested and analysed for cluster of differentiation 8 (CD8) and PD-1 expression. RESULTS Strong PD-L1 expression was observed in 37% of mismatch repair (MMR)-proficient and in 29% of MMR-deficient CRC. In MMR-proficient CRC strong PD-L1 expression correlated with infiltration by CD8(+) lymphocytes (P=0.0001) which did not express PD-1. In univariate analysis, strong PD-L1 expression in MMR-proficient CRC was significantly associated with early T stage, absence of lymph node metastases, lower tumour grade, absence of vascular invasion and significantly improved survival in training (P=0.0001) and validation (P=0.03) sets. A similar trend (P=0.052) was also detectable in multivariate analysis including age, sex, T stage, N stage, tumour grade, vascular invasion, invasive margin and MMR status. Interestingly, programmed death receptor ligand 1 (PDL-1) and interferon (IFN)-γ gene expression, as detected by quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in fresh frozen CRC specimens (n=42) were found to be significantly associated (r=0.33, P=0.03). CONCLUSION PD-L1 expression is paradoxically associated with improved survival in MMR-proficient CRC.

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INTRODUCTION: Thyroid cancer is the most common endocrine malignancy. The outcomes of patients with relapsed thyroid cancer treated on early-phase clinical trials have not been systematically analyzed. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We reviewed the records of consecutive patients with metastatic thyroid cancer referred to the Phase I Clinical Trials Program from March 2006 to April 2008. Best response was assessed by Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors. RESULTS: Fifty-six patients were identified. The median age was 55 yr (range 35-79 yr). Of 49 patients evaluable for response, nine (18.4%) had a partial response, and 16 (32.7%) had stable disease for 6 months or longer. The median progression-free survival was 1.12 yr. With a median follow-up of 15.6 months, the 1-yr survival rate was 81%. In univariate analysis, factors predicting shorter survival were anaplastic histology (P = 0.0002) and albumin levels less than 3.5 g/dl (P = 0.05). Among 26 patients with tumor decreases, none died (median follow-up 1.3 yr), whereas 52% of patients with any tumor increase died by 1 yr (P = 0.0001). The median time to failure in our phase I clinical trials was 11.5 months vs. 4.1 months for the previous treatment (P = 0.04). CONCLUSION: Patients with advanced thyroid cancer treated on phase I clinical trials had high rates of partial response and prolonged stable disease. Time to failure was significantly longer on the first phase I trial compared with the prior conventional treatment. Patients with any tumor decrease had significantly longer survival than those with any tumor increase.

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The increased use of vancomycin in hospitals has resulted in a standard practice to monitor serum vancomycin levels because of possible nephrotoxicity. However, the routine monitoring of vancomycin serum concentration is under criticism and the cost effectiveness of such routine monitoring is in question because frequent monitoring neither results in increase efficacy nor decrease nephrotoxicity. The purpose of the present study is to determine factors that may place patients at increased risk of developing vancomycin induced nephrotoxicity and for whom monitoring may be most beneficial.^ From September to December 1992, 752 consecutive in patients at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, were prospectively evaluated for nephrotoxicity in order to describe predictive risk factors for developing vancomycin related nephrotoxicity. Ninety-five patients (13 percent) developed nephrotoxicity. A total of 299 patients (40 percent) were considered monitored (vancomycin serum levels determined during the course of therapy), and 346 patients (46 percent) were receiving concurrent moderate to highly nephrotoxic drugs.^ Factors that were found to be significantly associated with nephrotoxicity in univariate analysis were: gender, base serum creatinine greater than 1.5mg/dl, monitor, leukemia, concurrent moderate to highly nephrotoxic drugs, and APACHE III scores of 40 or more. Significant factors in the univariate analysis were then entered into a stepwise logistic regression analysis to determine independent predictive risk factors for vancomycin induced nephrotoxicity.^ Factors, with their corresponding odds ratios and 95% confidence limits, selected by stepwise logistic regression analysis to be predictive of vancomycin induced nephrotoxicity were: Concurrent therapy with moderate to highly nephrotoxic drugs (2.89; 1.76-4.74), APACHE III scores of 40 or more (1.98; 1.16-3.38), and male gender (1.98; 1.04-2.71).^ Subgroup (monitor and non-monitor) analysis showed that male (OR = 1.87; 95% CI = 1.01, 3.45) and moderate to highly nephrotoxic drugs (OR = 4.58; 95% CI = 2.11, 9.94) were significant for nephrotoxicity in monitored patients. However, only APACHE III score (OR = 2.67; 95% CI = 1.13,6.29) was significant for nephrotoxicity in non-monitored patients.^ The conclusion drawn from this study is that not every patient receiving vancomycin therapy needs frequent monitoring of vancomycin serum levels. Such routine monitoring may be appropriate in patients with one or more of the identified risk factors and low risk patients do not need to be subjected to the discomfort and added cost of multiple blood sampling. Such prudent selection of patients to monitor may decrease cost to patients and hospital. ^