A Cox Model for Biostatistics of the Future

Professor Sir David R. Cox (DRC) is widely acknowledged as among the most important scientists of the second half of the twentieth century. He inherited the mantle of statistical science from Pearson and Fisher, advanced their ideas, and translated statistical theory into practice so as to forever change the application of statistics in many fields, but especially biology and medicine. The logistic and proportional hazards models he substantially developed, are arguably among the most influential biostatistical methods in current practice. This paper looks forward over the period from DRC's 80th to 90th birthdays, to speculate about the future of biostatistics, drawing lessons from DRC's contributions along the way. We consider "Cox's model" of biostatistics, an approach to statistical science that: formulates scientific questions or quantities in terms of parameters gamma in probability models f(y; gamma) that represent in a parsimonious fashion, the underlying scientific mechanisms (Cox, 1997); partition the parameters gamma = theta, eta into a subset of interest theta and other "nuisance parameters" eta necessary to complete the probability distribution (Cox and Hinkley, 1974); develops methods of inference about the scientific quantities that depend as little as possible upon the nuisance parameters (Barndorff-Nielsen and Cox, 1989); and thinks critically about the appropriate conditional distribution on which to base infrences. We briefly review exciting biomedical and public health challenges that are capable of driving statistical developments in the next decade. We discuss the statistical models and model-based inferences central to the CM approach, contrasting them with computationally-intensive strategies for prediction and inference advocated by Breiman and others (e.g. Breiman, 2001) and to more traditional design-based methods of inference (Fisher, 1935). We discuss the hierarchical (multi-level) model as an example of the future challanges and opportunities for model-based inference. We then consider the role of conditional inference, a second key element of the CM. Recent examples from genetics are used to illustrate these ideas. Finally, the paper examines causal inference and statistical computing, two other topics we believe will be central to biostatistics research and practice in the coming decade. Throughout the paper, we attempt to indicate how DRC's work and the "Cox Model" have set a standard of excellence to which all can aspire in the future.

Change-Enabled Software Systems

Few real software systems are built completely from scratch nowadays. Instead, systems are built iteratively and incrementally, while integrating and interacting with components from many other systems. Adaptation, reconfiguration and evolution are normal, ongoing processes throughout the lifecycle of a software system. Nevertheless the platforms, tools and environments we use to develop software are still largely based on an outmoded model that presupposes that software systems are closed and will not significantly evolve after deployment. We claim that in order to enable effective and graceful evolution of modern software systems, we must make these systems more amenable to change by (i) providing explicit, first-class models of software artifacts, change, and history at the level of the platform, (ii) continuously analysing static and dynamic evolution to track emergent properties, and (iii) closing the gap between the domain model and the developers' view of the evolving system. We outline our vision of dynamic, evolving software systems and identify the research challenges to realizing this vision.

Generisches Framework Studi-App

Mit der Idee eines generischen, an vielfältige Hochschulanforderungen anpassbaren Studierenden-App-Frameworks haben sich innerhalb des Arbeitskreises Web der ZKI ca. 30 Hochschulen zu einem Entwicklungsverbund zusammengefunden. Ziel ist es, an den beteiligten Einrichtungen eine umfassende Zusammenstellung aller elektronischen Studienservices zu evaluieren, übergreifende Daten- und Metadatenmodelle für die Beschreibung dieser Dienste zu erstellen und Schnittstellen zu den gängigen Campusmanagementsystemen sowie zu Infrastrukturen der elektronischen Lehre (LMS, Druckdienste, elektronischen Katalogen usw.) zu entwickeln. In einem abschließenden Schritt werden auf dieser Middleware aufsetzende Studienmanagement-Apps für Studierende erstellt, die die verschiedenen Daten- und Kommunikationsströme der standardisierten Dienste und Kommunikationskanäle bündeln und in eine für den Studierenden leicht zu durchschauende, navigationsfreundliche Aufbereitung kanalisiert. Mit der Konzeption eines dezentralen, über eine Vielzahl von Hochschulen verteilten Entwicklungsprojektes unter einer zentralen Projektleitung wird sichergestellt, dass redundante Entwicklungen vermieden, bundesweit standardisierte Serviceangebote angeboten und Wissenstransferprozesse zwischen einer Vielzahl von Hochschulen zur Nutzung mobiler Devices (Smartphones, Tablets und entsprechende Apps) angeregt werden können. Die Unterstützung der Realisierung klarer Schnittstellenspezifikationen zu Campusmanagementsystemen durch deren Anbieter kann durch diese breite Interessensgemeinschaft ebenfalls gestärkt werden. Weiterhin zentraler Planungsinhalt ist ein Angebot für den App-Nutzer zum Aufbau eines datenschutzrechtlich integeren, persönlichen E-Portfolios. Details finden sich im Kapitel Projektziele weiter unten.

Linked services for M2M communication with Enterprise IT systems

Linking the physical world to the Internet, also known as the Internet of Things, has increased available information and services in everyday life and in the Enterprise world. In Enterprise IT an increasing number of communication is done between IT backend systems and small IoT devices, for example sensor networks or RFID readers. This introduces some challenges in terms of complexity and integration. We are working on the integration of IoT devices into Enterprise IT by leveraging SOA techniques and Semantic Web technologies. We present a SOA based integration platform for connecting WSNs and large enterprise business processes. For ensuring interoperability our platform is based on Linked Services. These are thoroughly described, machine-readable, machine-reasonable service descriptions.

Clinical signs of deformed wing virus infection are predictive markers for honey bee colony losses.

The ectoparasitic mite Varroa destructor acting as a virus vector constitutes a central mechanism for losses of managed honey bee, Apis mellifera, colonies. This creates demand for an easy, accurate and cheap diagnostic tool to estimate the impact of viruliferous mites in the field. Here we evaluated whether the clinical signs of the ubiquitous and mite-transmitted deformed wing virus (DWV) can be predictive markers of winter losses. In fall and winter 2007/2008, A.m. carnica workers with apparent wing deformities were counted daily in traps installed on 29 queenright colonies. The data show that colonies which later died had a significantly higher proportion of workers with wing deformities than did those which survived. There was a significant positive correlation between V. destructor infestation levels and the number of workers displaying DWV clinical signs, further supporting the mite's impact on virus infections at the colony level. A logistic regression model suggests that colony size, the number of workers with wing deformities and V. destructor infestation levels constitute predictive markers for winter colony losses in this order of importance and ease of evaluation.

Prometheus Framework for Fuzzy Information Retrieval in Semantic Spaces

This paper introduces a novel vision for further enhanced Internet of Things services. Based on a variety of data (such as location data, ontology-backed search queries, in- and outdoor conditions) the Prometheus framework is intended to support users with helpful recommendations and information preceding a search for context-aware data. Adapted from artificial intelligence concepts, Prometheus proposes user-readjusted answers on umpteen conditions. A number of potential Prometheus framework applications are illustrated. Added value and possible future studies are discussed in the conclusion.

State of Emergency Medicine in Switzerland: a national profile of emergency departments in 2006

BACKGROUND Emergency departments (EDs) are an essential component of any developed health care system. There is, however, no national description of EDs in Switzerland. Our objective was to establish the number and location of EDs, patient visits and flow, medical staff and organization, and capabilities in 2006, as a benchmark before emergency medicine became a subspecialty in Switzerland. METHODS In 2007, we started to create an inventory of all hospital-based EDs with a preliminary list from the Swiss Society of Emergency and Rescue Medicine that was improved with input from ED physicians nationwide. EDs were eligible if they offered acute care 24 h per day, 7 days per week. Our goal was to have 2006 data from at least 80% of all EDs. The survey was initiated in 2007 and the 80% threshold reached in 2012. RESULTS In 2006, Switzerland had a total of 138 hospital-based EDs. The number of ED visits was 1.475 million visits or 20 visits per 100 inhabitants. The median number of visits was 8,806 per year; 25% of EDs admitted 5,000 patients or less, 31% 5,001-10,000 patients, 26% 10,001-20,000 patients, and 17% >20,000 patients per year. Crowding was reported by 84% of EDs with >20,000 visits/year. Residents with limited experience provided care for 77% of visits. Imaging was not immediately available for all patients: standard X-ray within 15 min (70%), non-contrast head CT scan within 15 min (38%), and focused sonography for trauma (70%); 67% of EDs had an intensive care unit within the hospital, and 87% had an operating room always available. CONCLUSIONS Swiss EDs were significant providers of health care in 2006. Crowding, physicians with limited experience, and the heterogeneity of emergency care capabilities were likely threats to the ubiquitous and consistent delivery of quality emergency care, particularly for time-sensitive conditions. Our survey establishes a benchmark to better understand future improvements in Swiss emergency care.

Fuzzy knowledge representation in cognitive cities

This paper gives an insight into cognitive computing for smart cities, resulting in cognitive cities. Cognitive cities and cognitive computing research with the underlying concepts of knowledge graphs and fuzzy cognitive maps are presented and supported by existing tools (i.e., IBM Watson and Google Now) and intended tools (meta-app). The paper illustrates FCM as a suiting instrument to represent information/knowledge in a city environment driven by human-technology interaction, enforcing the concept of cognitive cities. A proposed paper prototype combines the findings of the paper and shows the next step in the implementation of the proposed meta-app.

Personal Digital Assistant 2.0 - A Software Prototype for Cognitive Cities

This paper presents a software prototype of a personal digital assistant 2.0. Based on soft computing methods and cognitive computing this mobile application prototype improves calendar and mobility management in cognitive cities. Applying fuzzy cognitive maps and evolutionary algorithms, the prototype represents a next step towards the realization of cognitive cities (i.e., smart cities enhanced with cognition). A user scenario and a test version of the prototype are included for didactical reasons.

La música colosal del mundo : Entre el nihilismo y la higiene de estado

El proclamado hastío del narrador de Potpourri, la distancia y el desdén con que contempla el acontecer contrastan con su extrema agilidad discursiva. A la vez, el escepticismo con que encara los valores consagrados por la sociedad contemporánea se trocará en una posición demiúrgica y estatal cuando vea peligrar esos valores. Una vez más, el adulterio pone en crisis sociedad y literatura. Lo único que matiza el giro abrupto del narrador es una lengua ubicua y proteica, que atraviesa críticamente un amplísimo abanico de registros, modismos y géneros discursivos

La música colosal del mundo : Entre el nihilismo y la higiene de estado

El proclamado hastío del narrador de Potpourri, la distancia y el desdén con que contempla el acontecer contrastan con su extrema agilidad discursiva. A la vez, el escepticismo con que encara los valores consagrados por la sociedad contemporánea se trocará en una posición demiúrgica y estatal cuando vea peligrar esos valores. Una vez más, el adulterio pone en crisis sociedad y literatura. Lo único que matiza el giro abrupto del narrador es una lengua ubicua y proteica, que atraviesa críticamente un amplísimo abanico de registros, modismos y géneros discursivos