Development of accident prediction models for rural highway intersections

A study was done to develop macrolevel crash prediction models that can be used to understand and identify effective countermeasures for improving signalized highway intersections and multilane stop-controlled highway intersections in rural areas. Poisson and negative binomial regression models were fit to intersection crash data from Georgia, California, and Michigan. To assess the suitability of the models, several goodness-of-fit measures were computed. The statistical models were then used to shed light on the relationships between crash occurrence and traffic and geometric features of the rural signalized intersections. The results revealed that traffic flow variables significantly affected the overall safety performance of the intersections regardless of intersection type and that the geometric features of intersections varied across intersection type and also influenced crash type.

Bayesian multinomial logit: Theory and route choice example

Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile

Sustainable infrastructure project planning : progress in contemporary decision support tools

Most infrastructure project developments are complex in nature, particularly in the planning phase. During this stage, many vague alternatives are tabled - from the strategic to operational level. Human judgement and decision making are characterised by biases, errors and the use of heuristics. These factors are intangible and hard to measure because they are subjective and qualitative in nature. The problem with human judgement becomes more complex when a group of people are involved. The variety of different stakeholders may cause conflict due to differences in personal judgements. Hence, the available alternatives increase the complexities of the decision making process. Therefore, it is desirable to find ways of enhancing the efficiency of decision making to avoid misunderstandings and conflict within organisations. As a result, numerous attempts have been made to solve problems in this area by leveraging technologies such as decision support systems. However, most construction project management decision support systems only concentrate on model development and neglect fundamentals of computing such as requirement engineering, data communication, data management and human centred computing. Thus, decision support systems are complicated and are less efficient in supporting the decision making of project team members. It is desirable for decision support systems to be simpler, to provide a better collaborative platform, to allow for efficient data manipulation, and to adequately reflect user needs. In this chapter, a framework for a more desirable decision support system environment is presented. Some key issues related to decision support system implementation are also described.

Petri net modeling of spatial and temporal constraints in track allocation problem at railway stations

The track allocation problem (TAP) at a multi-track, multi-platform mainline railway station is defined by the station track layout and service timetable, which implies combinations of spatial and temporal conflicts. Feasible solutions are available from either traditional planning or advanced intelligent searching methods and their evaluations with respect to operational requirements are essential for the operators. To facilitate thorough analysis, a timed Coloured Petri Nets (CPN) model is presented here to encapsulate the inter-relationships of the spatial and temporal constraints in the TAP.

Thinking spatially, acting collaboratively : a GIS-based health decision support system for improving the collaborative health-planning practice

The field of collaborative health planning faces significant challenges due to the lack of effective information, systems and the absence of a framework to make informed decisions. These challenges have been magnified by the rise of the healthy cities movement, consequently, there have been more frequent calls for localised, collaborative and evidence-driven decision-making. Some studies in the past have reported that the use of decision support systems (DSS) for planning healthy cities may lead to: increase collaboration between stakeholders and the general public, improve the accuracy and quality of the decision-making processes and improve the availability of data and information for health decision-makers. These links have not yet been fully tested and only a handful of studies have evaluated the impact of DSS on stakeholders, policy-makers and health planners. This study suggests a framework for developing healthy cities and introduces an online Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based DSS for improving the collaborative health planning. It also presents preliminary findings of an ongoing case study conducted in the Logan-Beaudesert region of Queensland, Australia. These findings highlight the perceptions of decision-making prior to the implementation of the DSS intervention. Further, the findings help us to understand the potential role of the DSS to improve collaborative health planning practice.

Harnessing ICT-based tool for improving the collaborative health planning debate : the case of Logan-Beaudesert, Australia

The field of collaborative health planning faces significant challenges posed by the lack of effective information, systems and a framework to organise that information. Such a framework is critical in order to make accessible and informed decisions for planning healthy cities. The challenges have been exaggerated by the rise of the healthy cities movement, as a result of which, there have been more frequent calls for localised, collaborative and evidence-based decision-making. Some studies suggest that the use of ICT-based tools in health planning may lead to: increased collaboration between stakeholder sand the community; improve the accuracy and quality of the decision making process; and, improve the availability of data and information for health decision-makers as well as health service planners. Research has justified the use of decision support systems (DSS) in planning for healthy cities as these systems have been found to improve the planning process. DSS are information communication technology (ICT) tools including geographic information systems (GIS) that provide the mechanisms to help decision-makers and related stake holders assess complex problems and solve these in a meaningful way. Consequently, it is now more possible than ever before to make use of ICT-based tools in health planning. However, knowledge about the nature and use of DSS within collaborative health planning is relatively limited. In particular, little research has been conducted in terms of evaluating the impact of adopting these tools upon stakeholders, policy-makers and decision-makers within the health planning field. This paper presents an integrated method that has been developed to facilitate an informed decision-making process to assist in the health planning process. Specifically, the paper describes the participatory process that has been adopted to develop an online GIS-based DSS for health planners. The literature states that the overall aim of DSS is to improve the efficiency of the decisions made by stakeholders, optimising their overall performance and minimizing judgmental biases. For this reason, the paper examines the effectiveness and impact of an innovative online GIS-based DSS on health planners. The case study of the online DSS is set within a unique settings-based initiative designed to plan for and improve the health capacity of Logan-Beaudesert area, Australia. This unique setting-based initiative is named the Logan-Beaudesert Health Coalition (LBHC).The paper outlines the impact occurred by implementing the ICT-based DSS. In conclusion, the paper emphasizes upon the need for the proposed tool for enhancing health planning.

Modelling issues on the railway resource management process using multi-agent system

Many infrastructure and necessity systems such as electricity and telecommunication in Europe and the Northern America were used to be operated as monopolies, if not state-owned. However, they have now been disintegrated into a group of smaller companies managed by different stakeholders. Railways are no exceptions. Since the early 1980s, there have been reforms in the shape of restructuring of the national railways in different parts of the world. Continuous refinements are still conducted to allow better utilisation of railway resources and quality of service. There has been a growing interest for the industry to understand the impacts of these reforms on the operation efficiency and constraints. A number of post-evaluations have been conducted by analysing the performance of the stakeholders on their profits (Crompton and Jupe 2003), quality of train service (Shaw 2001) and engineering operations (Watson 2001). Results from these studies are valuable for future improvement in the system, followed by a new cycle of post-evaluations. However, direct implementation of these changes is often costly and the consequences take a long period of time (e.g. years) to surface. With the advance of fast computing technologies, computer simulation is a cost-effective means to evaluate a hypothetical change in a system prior to actual implementation. For example, simulation suites have been developed to study a variety of traffic control strategies according to sophisticated models of train dynamics, traction and power systems (Goodman, Siu and Ho 1998, Ho and Yeung 2001). Unfortunately, under the restructured railway environment, it is by no means easy to model the complex behaviour of the stakeholders and the interactions between them. Multi-agent system (MAS) is a recently developed modelling technique which may be useful in assisting the railway industry to conduct simulations on the restructured railway system. In MAS, a real-world entity is modelled as a software agent that is autonomous, reactive to changes, able to initiate proactive actions and social communicative acts. It has been applied in the areas of supply-chain management processes (García-Flores, Wang and Goltz 2000, Jennings et al. 2000a, b) and e-commerce activities (Au, Ngai and Parameswaran 2003, Liu and You 2003), in which the objectives and behaviour of the buyers and sellers are captured by software agents. It is therefore beneficial to investigate the suitability or feasibility of applying agent modelling in railways and the extent to which it might help in developing better resource management strategies. This paper sets out to examine the benefits of using MAS to model the resource management process in railways. Section 2 first describes the business environment after the railway 2 Modelling issues on the railway resource management process using MAS reforms. Then the problems emerge from the restructuring process are identified in section 3. Section 4 describes the realisation of a MAS for railway resource management under the restructured scheme and the feasible studies expected from the model.

Public participation, values and interests in the procurement of infrastructure projects in Australia : a review and future research direction

In many countries, the main providers for major infrastructure projects are government or public agencies. Public infrastructure projects includes economic and social infrastructure such as transportation, education and health facilities. Most decision-making models for delivery of public infrastructure projects are heavily weighted towards financial/economic factors. In Australia, public participation is an essential instrument in the procurement of infrastructure and development within Australia. This study reviews the public participation, values and interests in the procurement of infrastructure projects in Australia, and identifies the research direction in this research area in order to improve the decision-making models that capture stakeholder social, economical and environmental concerns in infrastructure projects.

3D visualisation of groundwater/surface water systems as a planning and communication tool

Groundwater is increasingly recognised as an important yet vulnerable natural resource, and a key consideration in water cycle management. However, communication of sub-surface water system behaviour, as an important part of encouraging better water management, is visually difficult. Modern 3D visualisation techniques can be used to effectively communicate these complex behaviours to engage and inform community stakeholders. Most software developed for this purpose is expensive and requires specialist skills. The Groundwater Visualisation System (GVS) developed by QUT integrates a wide range of surface and sub-surface data, to produce a 3D visualisation of the behaviour, structure and connectivity of groundwater/surface water systems. Surface data (elevation, surface water, land use, vegetation and geology) and data collected from boreholes (bore locations and subsurface geology) are combined to visualise the nature, structure and connectivity of groundwater/surface water systems. Time-series data (water levels, groundwater quality, rainfall, stream flow and groundwater abstraction) is displayed as an animation within the 3D framework, or graphically, to show water system condition changes over time. GVS delivers an interactive, stand-alone 3D Visualisation product that can be used in a standard PC environment. No specialised training or modelling skills are required. The software has been used extensively in the SEQ region to inform and engage both water managers and the community alike. Examples will be given of GVS visualisations developed in areas where there have been community concerns around groundwater over-use and contamination.

Geographical information systems : an effective planning and decision-making platform for community health coalitions in Australia

The development of locally-based healthcare initiatives, such as community health coalitions that focus on capacity building programs and multi-faceted responses to long-term health problems, have become an increasingly important part of the public health landscape. As a result of their complexity and the level of investment, it has become necessary to develop innovative ways to help manage these new healthcare approaches. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have been suggested as one of the innovative approaches that will allow community health coalitions to better manage and plan their activities. The focus of this paper is to provide a commentary on the use of GIS as a tool for community coalitions and discuss some of the potential benefits and issues surrounding the development of these tools.

Sustainable urban and transport development for transportation disadvantaged : a review

Around the world, particularly in North America and Australia, urban sprawl combined with low density suburban development has caused serious accessibility and mobility problems, especially for those who do not own a motor vehicle or have access to public transportation services. Sustainable urban and transportation development is seen crucial in solving transportation disadvantage problems in urban settlements. However, current urban and transportation models have not been adequately addressed unsustainable urban transportation problems that transportation disadvantaged groups overwhelmingly encounter, and the negative impacts on the disadvantaged have not been effectively considered. Transportation disadvantaged is a multi-dimensional problem that combines demographic, spatial and transportation service dimensions. Nevertheless, most transportation models focusing on transportation disadvantage only employ demographic and transportation service dimensions and do not take spatial dimension into account. This paper aims to investigate the link between sustainable urban and transportation development and spatial dimension of the transportation disadvantage problem. The paper, for that purpose, provides a thorough review of the literature and identifies a set of urban, development and policy characteristics to define spatial dimension of the transportation disadvantage problem. This paper presents an overview of these urban, development and policy characteristics that have significant relationships with sustainable urban and transportation development and travel inability, which are also useful in determining transportation disadvantaged populations.

Factors contributing to ethical issues in project procurement planning : a case study in Malaysia

The construction industry plays a substantial role in a country’s national economy, irrespective of the country’s levels of economic development. The Malaysian Government has given a much needed boost to the country’s construction projects under the 9th Malaysian Plan where a total of 880 projects worth RM15billion (US$48billion) is to be tendered (The Star, 2006). However, Malaysia has not escaped the problems of project failure. In 2005, 17.3% of 417 Malaysian government contracts projects were considered “sick”. Project procurement is one of the most important stages of project delivery. Even though ethics in project procurement has been identified as one of the contributors to project failure, it has not been systematically studied before from the perspective of client in Malaysia. The aim of this paper is to present an exploration to the ethical issues in project procurement in Malaysian public sector projects. By exploring ethical issues from client perspective, this could provide an ethical standpoint for the project life cycle and could maintain a good affiliation between the clients and the customers. It is expected that findings from this review will be somewhat representative of other developing countries.

Optimisation of a class of transportation problems using genetic algorithms

This paper presents a Genetic Algorithms (GA) approach to search the optimized path for a class of transportation problems. The formulation of the problems for suitable application of GA will be discussed. Exchanging genetic information in the sense of neighborhoods will be introduced for generation reproduction. The performance of the GA will be evaluated by computer simulation. The proposed algorithm use simple coding with population size 1 converged in reasonable optimality within several minutes.

Minimising transport disadvantage to support knowledge city formation : applying the capability approach to select indicators

Purpose–The aims of this paper are to demonstrate the application of Sen’s theory of well-being, the capability approach; to conceptualise the state of transportation disadvantage; and to underpin a theoretical sounds indicator selection process. Design/methodology/approach–This paper reviews and examines various measurement approaches of transportation disadvantage in order to select indicators and develop an innovative framework of urban transportation disadvantage. Originality/value–The paper provides further understanding of the state of transportation disadvantage from the capability approach perspective. In addition, building from this understanding, a validated and systematic framework is developed to select relevant indicators. Practical implications –The multi-indicator approach has a high tendency to double count for transportation disadvantage, increase the number of TDA population and only accounts each indicator for its individual effects. Instead, indicators that are identified based on a transportation disadvantage scenario will yield more accurate results. Keywords – transport disadvantage, the capability approach, accessibility, measuring urban transportation disadvantage, indicators selection Paper type – Academic Research Paper