Fuzzy Monte Carlo model for transmission power systems reliability based decision making

This thesis presents the Fuzzy Monte Carlo Model for Transmission Power Systems Reliability based studies (FMC-TRel) methodology, which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on Optimal Power Flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. For the system states that cause load curtailment, an optimization approach is applied to reduce the probability of occurrence of these states while minimizing the costs to achieve that reduction. This methodology is of most importance for supporting the transmission system operator decision making, namely in the identification of critical components and in the planning of future investments in the transmission power system. A case study based on Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Bus is presented to illustrate with detail the application of the proposed methodology.

HIV rapid testing as a key strategy for prevention of mother-to-child transmission in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess the feasibility of HIV rapid testing for pregnant women at maternity hospital admission and of subsequent interventions to reduce perinatal HIV transmission. METHODS: Study based on a convenience sample of women unaware of their HIV serostatus when they were admitted to delivery in public maternity hospitals in Rio de Janeiro and Porto Alegre, Brazil, between March 2000 and April 2002. Women were counseled and tested using the Determine HIV1/2 Rapid Test. HIV infection was confirmed using the Brazilian algorithm for HIV infection diagnosis. In utero transmission of HIV was determined using HIV-DNA-PCR. There were performed descriptive analyses of sociodemographic data, number of previous pregnancies and abortions, number of prenatal care visits, timing of HIV testing, HIV rapid test result, neonatal and mother-to-child transmission interventions, by city studied. RESULTS: HIV prevalence in women was 6.5% (N=1,439) in Porto Alegre and 1.3% (N=3.778) in Rio de Janeiro. In Porto Alegre most of women were tested during labor (88.7%), while in Rio de Janeiro most were tested in the postpartum (67.5%). One hundred and forty-four infants were born to 143 HIV-infected women. All newborns but one in each city received at least prophylaxis with oral zidovudine. It was possible to completely avoid newborn exposure to breast milk in 96.8% and 51.1% of the cases in Porto Alegre and Rio de Janeiro, respectively. Injectable intravenous zidovudine was administered during labor to 68.8% and 27.7% newborns in Porto Alegre and Rio de Janeiro, respectively. Among those from whom blood samples were collected within 48 hours of birth, in utero transmission of HIV was confirmed in 4 cases in Rio de Janeiro (4/47) and 6 cases in Porto Alegre (6/79). CONCLUSIONS: The strategy proved feasible in maternity hospitals in Rio de Janeiro and Porto Alegre. Efforts must be taken to maximize HIV testing during labor. There is a need of strong social support to provide this population access to health care services after hospital discharge.

Fractional model for malaria transmission under control strategies

We study a fractional model for malaria transmission under control strategies.Weconsider the integer order model proposed by Chiyaka et al. (2008) in [15] and modify it to become a fractional order model. We study numerically the model for variation of the values of the fractional derivative and of the parameter that models personal protection, b. From observation of the figures we conclude that as b is increased from 0 to 1 there is a corresponding decrease in the number of infectious humans and infectious mosquitoes, for all values of α. This means that this result is invariant for variation of fractional derivative, in the values tested. These results are in agreement with those obtained in Chiyaka et al.(2008) [15] for α = 1.0 and suggest that our fractional model is epidemiologically wellposed.

On the adaptation of broadcast transactions in token-passing fieldbus networks with heterogeneous transmission media

Broadcast networks that are characterised by having different physical layers (PhL) demand some kind of traffic adaptation between segments, in order to avoid traffic congestion in linking devices. In many LANs, this problem is solved by the actual linking devices, which use some kind of flow control mechanism that either tell transmitting stations to pause (the transmission) or just discard frames. In this paper, we address the case of token-passing fieldbus networks operating in a broadcast fashion and involving message transactions over heterogeneous (wired or wireless) physical layers. For the addressed case, real-time and reliability requirements demand a different solution to the traffic adaptation problem. Our approach relies on the insertion of an appropriate idle time before a station issuing a request frame. In this way, we guarantee that the linking devices’ queues do not increase in a way that the timeliness properties of the overall system turn out to be unsuitable for the targeted applications.

Simulation of offshore wind system with two-level converters: HVDC power transmission

A new integrated mathematical model for the simulation of offshore wind energy conversion system performance is presented in this paper. The mathematical model considers an offshore variable-speed turbine in deep water equipped with a permanent magnet synchronous generator using full-power two-level converter, converting the energy of a variable frequency source in injected energy into the electric network with constant frequency, through a high voltage DC transmission submarine cable. The mathematical model for the drive train is a concentrate two mass model which incorporates the dynamic for the structure and tower due to the need to emulate the effects of the moving surface. Controller strategy considered is a proportional integral one. Also, pulse width modulation using space vector modulation supplemented with sliding mode is used for trigger the transistor of the converter. Finally, a case study is presented to access the system performance. © 2014 IEEE.

Beach sand and the potential for infectious disease transmission: observations and recommendations

Recent studies suggest that sand can serve as a vehicle for exposure of humans to pathogens at beach sites, resulting in increased health risks. Sampling for microorganisms in sand should therefore be considered for inclusion in regulatory programmes aimed at protecting recreational beach users from infectious disease. Here, we review the literature on pathogen levels in beach sand, and their potential for affecting human health. In an effort to provide specific recommendations for sand sampling programmes, we outline published guidelines for beach monitoring programmes, which are currently focused exclusively on measuring microbial levels in water. We also provide background on spatial distribution and temporal characteristics of microbes in sand, as these factors influence sampling programmes. First steps toward establishing a sand sampling programme include identifying appropriate beach sites and use of initial sanitary assessments to refine site selection. A tiered approach is recommended for monitoring. This approach would include the analysis of samples from many sites for faecal indicator organisms and other conventional analytes, while testing for specific pathogens and unconventional indicators is reserved for high-risk sites. Given the diversity of microbes found in sand, studies are urgently needed to identify the most significant aetiological agent of disease and to relate microbial measurements in sand to human health risk.

Engineering PROFIBUS networks with heterogeneous transmission media

A significant number of process control and factory automation systems use PROFIBUS as the underlying fieldbus communication network. The process of properly setting up a PROFIBUS network is not a straightforward task. In fact, a number of network parameters must be set for guaranteeing the required levels of timeliness and dependability. Engineering PROFIBUS networks is even more subtle when the network includes various physical segments exhibiting heterogeneous specifications, such as bus speed or frame formats, just to mention a few. In this paper we provide underlying theory and a methodology to guarantee the proper operation of such type of heterogeneous PROFIBUS networks. We additionally show how the methodology can be applied to the practical case of PROFIBUS networks containing simultaneously DP (Decentralised Periphery) and PA (Process Automation) segments, two of the most used commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) PROFIBUS solutions. The importance of the findings is however not limited to this case. The proposed methodology can be generalised to cover other heterogeneous infrastructures. Hybrid wired/wireless solutions are just an example for which an enormous eagerness exists.

Simulation of offshore wind system with two levels converters: HVDC power transmission

A new integrated mathematical model for the simulation of offshore wind energy conversion system performance is presented in this paper. The mathematical model considers an offshore variable-speed turbine in deep water equipped with a permanent magnet synchronous generator using full-power two-level converter, converting the energy of a variable frequency source in injected energy into the electric network with constant frequency, through a high voltage DC transmission submarine cable. The mathematical model for the drive train is a concentrate two mass model which incorporates the dynamic for the structure and tower due to the need to emulate the effects of the moving surface. Controller strategy considered is a proportional integral one. Also, pulse width modulation using space vector modulation supplemented with sliding mode is used for trigger the transistor of the converter. Finally, a case study is presented to access the system performance. © 2014 IEEE.

Cultural innovation and transmission of tool use in wild chimpanzees:evidence from field experiments

Animal Cognition, V.6, pp. 213-223

Epidemiological role of humans, dogs and cats in the transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in a central area of Argentina

Trypanosoma cruzi prevalence rates of human, dog and cat populations from 47 households of 3 rural localities of the phytogeographical Chaqueña area of Argentina were determined both by serological and xenodiagnostic procedures. Human prevalence rates were uniform and ranged from 49.6 to 58.7%. Overall prevalence rate in dogs (75.0%) was significantly higher than in humans (51.0%). The overall proportion of parasitemic individuals assessed by xenodiagnosis was significantly higher in either dog (64.2%) or cat (63.6%) populations than among humans (12.5%). Although both the average number of resident as well as infected individuals per household was higher for people than for dogs (6.5 vs. 3.3, and 3.4 vs. 2.4, respectively), the reverse was recorded when parasitemic individuals were considered (1.0 vs. 2.1). Results are discussed in relation to dog between dogs and people, and dogs and bugs. In the light of present data, dogs must be considered as the major donors of parasites to vector bugs and thus, principal contributors to transmission in this region of Argentina.

Dynamics of transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in a rural area of Argentina: III. Persistence of T. cruzi parasitemia among canine reservoirs in a two-year follow-up

A new cross-sectional survey of household- associated mongrel dogs as well as follow-up of previously parasitemic individuals was carried out in 1984 toy means of xenodiagnosis and serologic techniques to get a deeper insight into the relationship of T. cruzi parasitemia and age among canine hosts in a rural area of Argentina. Persistence of detectable parasitemia was age-independent, or at most, loosely related to age, confirming the pattern observed in 1982. Similarly no significant age-decreasing effect was recorded among seropositive dogs in: a) the probability of detecting parasites in a 2-year follow-up; b) their intensity of infectiousness (=infective force) for T. infestans 3rd-4th instar nymphs, as measured by the percentage of infected bugs observed in each dog xenodiagnosis. Moreover, not only was the infective force of seropositive dogs for bugs approximately constant through lifetime, but it was significantly higher than the one recorded for children in the present survey, and for human people by other researchers. Therefore, and since T. infestans field populations show high feeding frequencies on dogs, the latter are expected to make the greatest contribution to the pool of infected vectors in the rural household of Argentina. This characteristic should be sufficient to involve canine reservoirs definitely as a risk factor for human people residing in the same house. The increased severity of parasitemia observed among dogs in this survey may be related to the acute undernutrition characteristic of canine populations of poor rural areas in our country, which is expected to affect the ability of the host to manage the infection.

Ascaris lumbricoides in neonate: evidence of congenital transmission of intestinal nematodes

Clinical and epidemiological study of a forty-days-old infant with a diarrheic condition and insufficient development led to the coprological diagnosis of ascariasis and possible congenital infection. Specific treatment with levamizole, resulted in clinical and parasitological cure, in addition to gain of weight up to normal levels. Maternal parasitism had been diagnosed two months before labor and proved beyond doubt during the ensuing epidemiological inquiry.

Schistosomiasis mansoni in an area of low transmission: I. impact of control measures

This work was undertaken in the municipality of Pedro de Toledo (São Paulo State, Brazil) in 1987, to clarify aspects related to the transmission levels of Schistosoma mansoni in a human population where the snail host is Biomphalaria tenagophila. Since 1980 a control programme has been undertaken in this municipality. Urban and rural populations (4,719 subjects) were submitted to faecal examinations (Kato-Katz method). The overall prevalence rate was 4.8% being higher in males (6.2%) and also in the rural zone (5.8%). The geometric mean of S. mansoni eggs was 35.1 eggs per gramme of faeces (epg). Approximately 80.0% of the carriers presented less than 100 epg and only 20 individuals (9.0%) eliminated more than half of total eggs. The highest index of potencial contamination (IPC) was in the age group of 5 to 20 years (57.6%). Two thirds of the investigated patients (207) were autochthonous of Pedro de Toledo. The geographical distribution of the carriers showed a clear aggregation of the autochthonous cases and a close association between human contact sites and breeding places of B. tenagophila. This study shows that schistosomiasis subjects were not randomly aggregated, the youngsters should be the main target in the prophylaxis, and the efficacy of the control programme.

Possible oral transmission of acute Chagas' disease in Brazil

In October, 1986, 7 to 22 days after a meeting at a farm in Paraíba state, 26 individuals presented with a febrile illness associated with bilateral eyelid and lower limb edema, mild hepatosplenomegaly, lymphadenopathy and, occasionally a skin rash. A 11-year-old boy exhibited atrial premature complexes and a 74-year-old patient developed acute heart failure. In two patients hospitalized in São Paulo city, acute Chagas' disease was diagnosed by the demonstration of circulating Trypanosoma cruzi. At autopsy in a fatal case, acute Chagas' cardiomyopathy was demonstrated. Xenodiagnosis were positive in 9 out of 14 tested patients. A specific IgG immune response was found in all patients and specific IgM antibodies were identified in 20 out of 22 tested patients. A epidemiological survey showed the existence of Triatoma brasiliensis in the outbuildings of this farm, but none in the house where most of the guests stayed. A high rate of infection with Trypanosoma cruzi was found in opossums. These observations together with those related to the food consumed by the patients, lead the authors to suggest that the human infections resulted from oral contamination probably originating from naturally infected marsupials in the area or crushed infected bugs.

Possible risk factors for vertical transmission of Chagas' disease

The author emphasizes the importance of the congenital transmission of Chagas' disease and discusses the possible risk factors for transmission such as age, origin, obstetrical history and maternal form of disease. Exacerbation of infection during pregnancy is also considered as a possible risk factor for transmission. Besides, a relationship between the frequency of transmission and gestational age is presented. Concerning breast-feeding, the risk of transmission is directly related to the acute phase of maternal disease and bleeding nipples. The deleterious effects of chagasic infection on the fetus and newborn are also considered.