Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-Making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

Probabilistic structure of an annual extreme rainfall series of a coastal area of the State of São Paulo, Brazil

This study aimed to describe the probabilistic structure of the annual series of extreme daily rainfall (Preabs), available from the weather station of Ubatuba, State of São Paulo, Brazil (1935-2009), by using the general distribution of extreme value (GEV). The autocorrelation function, the Mann-Kendall test, and the wavelet analysis were used in order to evaluate the presence of serial correlations, trends, and periodical components. Considering the results obtained using these three statistical methods, it was possible to assume the hypothesis that this temporal series is free from persistence, trends, and periodicals components. Based on quantitative and qualitative adhesion tests, it was found that the GEV may be used in order to quantify the probabilities of the Preabs data. The best results of GEV were obtained when the parameters of this function were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The method of L-moments has also shown satisfactory results.

The probabilistic risk analysis of external hazards of an interim storage for spent nuclear fuel

Tässä diplomityössä tehtiin Olkiluodon ydinvoimalaitoksella sijaitsevan käytetyn ydinpolttoaineen allasvarastointiin perustuvan välivaraston todennäköisyysperustainen ulkoisten uhkien riskianalyysi. Todennäköisyysperustainen riskianalyysi (PRA) on yleisesti käytetty riskien tunnistus- ja lähestymistapa ydinvoimalaitoksella. Työn tarkoituksena oli laatia täysin uusi ulkoisten uhkien PRA-analyysi, koska Suomessa ei ole aiemmin tehty vastaavanlaisia tämän tutkimusalueen riskitarkasteluja. Riskitarkastelun motiivina ovat myös maailmalla tapahtuneiden luonnonkatastrofien vuoksi korostunut ulkoisten uhkien rooli käytetyn ydinpolttoaineen välivarastoinnin turvallisuudessa. PRA analyysin rakenne pohjautui tutkimuksen alussa luotuun metodologiaan. Analyysi perustuu mahdollisten ulkoisten uhkien tunnistamiseen pois lukien ihmisen aikaansaamat tahalliset vahingot. Tunnistettujen ulkoisten uhkien esiintymistaajuuksien ja vahingoittamispotentiaalin perusteella ulkoiset uhat joko karsittiin pois tutkimuksessa määriteltyjen karsintakriteerien avulla tai analysoitiin tarkemmin. Tutkimustulosten perusteella voitiin todeta, että tiedot hyvin harvoin tapahtuvista ulkoisista uhista ovat epätäydellisiä. Suurinta osaa näistä hyvin harvoin tapahtuvista ulkoisista uhista ei ole koskaan esiintynyt eikä todennäköisesti koskaan tule esiintymään Olkiluodon vaikutusalueella tai edes Suomessa. Esimerkiksi salaman iskujen ja öljyaltistuksen roolit ja vaikutukset erilaisten komponenttien käytettävyyteen ovat epävarmasti tunnettuja. Tutkimuksen tuloksia voidaan pitää kokonaisuudessaan merkittävinä, koska niiden perusteella voidaan osoittaa ne ulkoiset uhat, joiden vaikutuksia olisi syytä tutkia tarkemmin. Yksityiskohtaisempi tietoisuus hyvin harvoin esiintyvistä ulkoisista uhista tarkentaisi alkutapahtumataajuuksien estimaatteja.

Excessive functions, Appell polynomials and optimal stopping

The main topic of the thesis is optimal stopping. This is treated in two research articles. In the first article we introduce a new approach to optimal stopping of general strong Markov processes. The approach is based on the representation of excessive functions as expected suprema. We present a variety of examples, in particular, the Novikov-Shiryaev problem for Lévy processes. In the second article on optimal stopping we focus on differentiability of excessive functions of diffusions and apply these results to study the validity of the principle of smooth fit. As an example we discuss optimal stopping of sticky Brownian motion. The third research article offers a survey like discussion on Appell polynomials. The crucial role of Appell polynomials in optimal stopping of Lévy processes was noticed by Novikov and Shiryaev. They described the optimal rule in a large class of problems via these polynomials. We exploit the probabilistic approach to Appell polynomials and show that many classical results are obtained with ease in this framework. In the fourth article we derive a new relationship between the generalized Bernoulli polynomials and the generalized Euler polynomials.

Subshifts with Simple Cellular Automata

A subshift is a set of in nite one- or two-way sequences over a xed nite set, de ned by a set of forbidden patterns. In this thesis, we study subshifts in the topological setting, where the natural morphisms between them are ones de ned by a (spatially uniform) local rule. Endomorphisms of subshifts are called cellular automata, and we call the set of cellular automata on a subshift its endomorphism monoid. It is known that the set of all sequences (the full shift) allows cellular automata with complex dynamical and computational properties. We are interested in subshifts that do not support such cellular automata. In particular, we study countable subshifts, minimal subshifts and subshifts with additional universal algebraic structure that cellular automata need to respect, and investigate certain criteria of `simplicity' of the endomorphism monoid, for each of them. In the case of countable subshifts, we concentrate on countable so c shifts, that is, countable subshifts de ned by a nite state automaton. We develop some general tools for studying cellular automata on such subshifts, and show that nilpotency and periodicity of cellular automata are decidable properties, and positive expansivity is impossible. Nevertheless, we also prove various undecidability results, by simulating counter machines with cellular automata. We prove that minimal subshifts generated by primitive Pisot substitutions only support virtually cyclic automorphism groups, and give an example of a Toeplitz subshift whose automorphism group is not nitely generated. In the algebraic setting, we study the centralizers of CA, and group and lattice homomorphic CA. In particular, we obtain results about centralizers of symbol permutations and bipermutive CA, and their connections with group structures.

Synchronization of ovulation in crossbred dairy heifers using gonadotrophin-releasing hormone agonist, prostaglandin F2a and human chorionic gonadotrophin or estradiol benzoate

Girolando (Gir x Holstein) is a very common dairy breed in Brazil because it combines the rusticity of Gir (Bos indicus) with the high milk yield of Holstein (Bos taurus). The ovarian follicular dynamics and hormonal treatments for synchronization of ovulation and timed artificial insemination were studied in Girolando heifers. The injection of a gonadotrophin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist was followed 6 or 7 days (d) later by prostaglandin F2a (PGF2a). Twenty-four hours after PGF2a injection either human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG, GPh-d6 and GPh-d7 groups) or estradiol benzoate (EB, GPE-d6 and GPE-d7 groups) was administered to synchronize ovulation and consequently allow timed artificial insemination (AI) 24 and 30 h after hCG and EB injection, respectively. Follicular dynamics in Girolando heifers was characterized by the predominance of three follicular waves (71.4%) with sizes of dominant follicles (10-13 mm) and corpus luteum (approximately 20 mm) similar to those for Bos indicus cattle. In the GnRH-PGF-hCG protocol, hCG administration induced earlier ovulation (67.4 h, P<0.01) compared to the control group (GnRH-PGF) and a better synchronization of ovulation, since most of it occurred within a period of 12 to 17 h. Pregnancy rate after timed AI was 42.8 (3/7, GPh-d6) to 50% (7/14, GPh-d7). In contrast, estradiol benzoate (GnRH-PGF-EB protocol) synchronized ovulation of only 5 of 11 heifers from the GPE-d7 group and of none (0/7) from the GPE-d6 group, which led to low pregnancy rates after timed AI (27.3 and 0%, respectively). However, since a small number of Girolando heifers was used to determine pregnancy rates in the present study, pregnancy rates should be confirmed with a larger number of animals.

Detection of renal dysfunction based on serum creatinine levels in a Brazilian community: the Bambuí Health and Ageing Study

There are few population-based studies of renal dysfunction and none conducted in developing countries. In the present study the prevalence and predictors of elevated serum creatinine levels (SCr > or = 1.3 mg/dl for men and 1.1 mg/dl for women) were determined among Brazilian adults (18-59 years) and older adults (>60 years). Participants included all older adults (N = 1742) and a probabilistic sample of adults (N = 818) from Bambuí town, MG, Southeast Brazil. Predictors were investigated using multiple logistic regression. Mean SCr levels were 0.77 ± 0.15 mg/dl for adults, 1.02 ± 0.39 mg/dl for older men, and 0.81 ± 0.17 mg/dl for older women. Because there were only 4 cases (0.48%) with elevated SCr levels among adults, the analysis of elevated SCr levels was restricted to older adults. The overall prevalence of elevated SCr levels among the elderly was 5.09% (76/1494). The prevalence of hypercreatinemia increased significantly with age (chi² = 26.17, P = 0.000), being higher for older men (8.19%) than for older women (5.29%, chi² = 5.00, P = 0.02). Elevated SCr levels were associated with age 70-79 years (odds ratio [OR] = 2.25, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.15-4.42), hypertension (OR = 3.04, 95% CI: 1.34-6.92), use of antihypertensive drugs (OR = 2.46, 95% CI: 1.26-4.82), chest pain (OR = 3.37, 95% CI: 1.31-8.74), and claudication (OR = 3.43, 95% CI: 1.30-9.09) among men, and with age >80 years (OR = 4.88, 95% CI: 2.24-10.65), use of antihypertensive drugs (OR = 4.06, 95% CI: 1.67-9.86), physical inactivity (OR = 2.11, 95% CI: 1.11-4.02) and myocardial infarction (OR = 3.89, 95% CI: 1.58-9.62) among women. The prevalence of renal dysfunction observed was much lower than that reported in other population-based studies, but predictors were similar. New investigations are needed to confirm the variability in prevalence and associated factors of renal dysfunction among populations.

Building bone tissue: matrices and scaffolds in physiology and biotechnology

Deposition of bone in physiology involves timed secretion, deposition and removal of a complex array of extracellular matrix proteins which appear in a defined temporal and spatial sequence. Mineralization itself plays a role in dictating and spatially orienting the deposition of matrix. Many aspects of the physiological process are recapitulated in systems of autologous or xenogeneic transplantation of osteogenic precursor cells developed for tissue engineering or modeling. For example, deposition of bone sialoprotein, a member of the small integrin-binding ligand, N-linked glycoprotein family, represents the first step of bone formation in ectopic transplantation systems in vivo. The use of mineralized scaffolds for guiding bone tissue engineering has revealed unexpected manners in which the scaffold and cells interact with each other, so that a complex interplay of integration and disintegration of the scaffold ultimately results in efficient and desirable, although unpredictable, effects. Likewise, the manner in which biomaterial scaffolds are "resorbed" by osteoclasts in vitro and in vivo highlights more complex scenarios than predicted from knowledge of physiological bone resorption per se. Investigation of novel biomaterials for bone engineering represents an essential area for the design of tissue engineering strategies.

Muscular function and functional mobility of faller and non-faller elderly women with osteoarthritis of the knee

Falls are a major concern in the elderly population with chronic joint disease. To compare muscular function and functional mobility among older women with knee osteoarthritis with and without a history of falls, 15 elderly women with a history of falls (74.20 ± 4.46 years) and 15 without a history of falls (71.73 ± 4.73 years) were studied. Muscular function, at the angular speed of 60, 120, and 180º/s, was evaluated using the Biodex Isokinetic Dynamometer. The sit-to-stand task was performed using the Balance Master System and the Timed Up and Go test was used to determine functional mobility. After collection of these data, the history of falls was investigated. A statistically significant difference was detected in the time taken to transfer the center of gravity during the sit-to-stand test (means ± SD; non-fallers: 0.35 ± 0.16 s; fallers: 0.55 ± 0.32 s; P = 0.049, Student t-test) and in the Timed Up and Go test (medians; non-fallers: 10.08 s; fallers: 11.59 s; P = 0.038, Mann-Whitney U-test). The results indicated that elderly osteoarthritic women with a history of falls presented altered functional mobility and needed more time to transfer the center of gravity in the sit-to-stand test. It is important to implement strategies to guarantee a better functional performance of elderly patients to reduce fall risks.

Estrous cycle and stress: influence of progesterone on the female brain

The female brain operates in a constantly changing chemical milieu caused by cyclical changes in gonadal hormones during the estrous cycle (menstrual cycle in women). Such hormones are highly lipophilic and pass readily from the plasma to the brain where they can influence neuronal function. It is becoming clear that the rapid reduction in peripheral circulating progesterone, which occurs during the late diestrous phase of the cycle, can trigger a withdrawal-like response, in which changes in GABA A receptor expression render hyper-responsive certain brain areas involved in processing responses to stressful stimuli. The periaqueductal gray matter (PAG) is recognised as an important region for integrating anxiety/defence responses. Withdrawal from progesterone, via actions of its neuroactive metabolite allopregnanolone, triggers up-regulation of extrasynaptic GABA A receptors on GABAergic neurons in the PAG. As a consequence, ongoing GABAergic tone on the output cells decreases, leading to an increase in functional excitability of the circuitry and enhanced responsiveness to stressful stimuli during the late diestrous phase. These changes during late diestrus could be prevented by short-term neurosteroid administration, timed to produce a more gradual fall in the peripheral concentration of allopregnanolone than the rapid decrease that occurs naturally, thus removing the trigger for the central withdrawal response.

Political Influence, Economic Interests and Endogenous Tax Structure in a Computable Equilibrium Framework: with Applicatioon to the United States, 1973 and 1983

A full understanding of public affairs requires the ability to distinguish between the policies that voters would like the government to adopt, and the influence that different voters or group of voters actually exert in the democratic process. We consider the properties of a computable equilibrium model of a competitive political economy in which the economic interests of groups of voters and their effective influence on equilibrium policy outcomes can be explicitly distinguished and computed. The model incorporates an amended version of the GEMTAP tax model, and is calibrated to data for the United States for 1973 and 1983. Emphasis is placed on how the aggregation of GEMTAP households into groups within which economic and political behaviour is assumed homogeneous affects the numerical representation of interests and influence for representative members of each group. Experiments with the model suggest that the changes in both interests and influence are important parts of the story behind the evolution of U.S. tax policy in the decade after 1973.

Heterotachy and long-branch attraction in phylogenetics

Affiliation: Département de Biochimie, Faculté de médecine, Université de Montréal

Macroemesures in Computable General Equilibrium Models: a Probabilistic Treatment with an Application to Morocco.

With the help of an illustrative general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Moroccan Economy, we test for the significance of simulation results in the case where the exact macromesure is not known with certainty. This is done by computing lower and upper bounds for the simulation resukts, given a priori probabilities attached to three possible closures (Classical, Johansen, Keynesian). Our Conclusion is that, when there is uncertainty on closures several endogenous changes lack significance, which, in turn, limit the use of the model for policy prescriptions.

The roles of the somatosensory cortices in the perception of noxious and innocuous stimuli

Résumé Les premières études électrophysiologiques et anatomiques ont établi le rôle crucial du cortex somatosensoriel primaire et secondaire (SI et SII) dans le traitement de l'information somatosensorielle. Toutefois, les récentes avancées en techniques d’imagerie cérébrale ont mis en question leur rôle dans la perception somatosensorielle. La réorganisation du cortex somatosensoriel est un phénomène qui a été proposé comme cause de la douleur du membre fantôme chez les individus amputés. Comme la plupart des études se sont concentrées sur le rôle du SI, une étude plus approfondie est nécessaire. La présente série d'expériences implique une exploration du rôle des régions somatosensorielles dans la perception des stimuli douleureux et non-douleureux chez des volontaires sains et patients avec des douleurs de membre fantôme. La première étude expérimentale présentée dans le chapitre 3 est une méta-analyse des études de neuro-imagerie employant des stimuli nociceptifs chez des volontaires sains. En comparaison aux précédentes, la présente étude permet la génération de cartes quantitatives probabilistes permettant la localisation des régions activées en réponse à des stimuli nociceptifs. Le rôle du cortex somatosensoriel dans la perception consciente de stimuli chauds a été étudié dans le chapitre 4 grâce à une étude d'imagerie par résonance magnétique fonctionnelle, dans laquelle des stimuli thermiques douloureux et non-douloureux ont été administrés de manière contrebalancée. Grâce à cette procédure, la perception de la chaleur fut atténuée par les stimuli douloureux, ce qui permit la comparaison des stimuli consciemment perçus avec ceux qui ne le furent pas. Les résultats ont montrés que les stimulations chaudes perçues ont engendré l’activation de l’aire SI controlatérale, ainsi que de la région SII. Grâce à l’évaluation clinique de patients amputés présentant une altération de leurs perceptions somatosensorielles, il est également possible de dessiner un aperçu des régions corticales qui sous-tendent ces modifications perceptuelles. Dans le chapitre 5 nous avons émis l'hypothèse proposant que les sensations du membre fantôme représentent un corrélat perceptuel de la réorganisation somatotopique des représentations sensorielles corticales. En effet, la réorganisation des sensations peut donner des indices sur les régions impliquées dans la genèse des sensations référées. Ainsi, un protocole d’évaluation sensoriel a été administré à un groupe de patients affligés de douleur au niveau du membre fantôme. Les résultats ont montré que, contrairement aux études précédentes, les sensations diffèrent grandement selon le type et l'intensité des stimuli tactiles, sans évidence de la présence d’un modèle spatialement localisé. Toutefois, les résultats actuels suggèrent que les régions corticales à champs récepteurs bilatéraux présentent également des modifications en réponse à une déafférentation. Ces études présentent une nouvelle image des régions corticales impliquées dans la perception des stimuli somatosensoriels, lesquelles comprennent les aires SI et SII, ainsi que l'insula. Les résultats sont pertinents à notre compréhension des corrélats neurologiques de la perception somatosensorielle consciente.

Eye disease and mobility limitations in older adults

Objectif: Évaluer les défis de la mobilité chez les personnes âgées atteintes de dégénérescence maculaire reliée à l’âge (DMLA), de glaucome ou de dystrophie cornéenne de Fuchs et les comparer avec les personnes âgées n’ayant pas de maladie oculaire. Devis: Étude transversale de population hospitalière Participants: 253 participants (61 avec la DMLA, 45 avec la dystrophie cornéenne de Fuchs, 79 avec le glaucome et 68 contrôles) Méthodes: Nous avons recruté les patients parmi ceux qui se font soigner dans les cliniques d’ophtalmologie de l’Hôpital Maisonneuve-Rosemont (Montréal, Canada) de septembre 2009 à octobre 2010. Les patients atteints de la DMLA ou de la maladie de Fuchs ont une acuité visuelle inférieure à 20/40 dans les deux yeux, tandis que les patients avec du glaucome ont un champ visuel dans le pire oeil inférieur ou égal à -4dB. Les patients contrôles, qui ont été recrutés à partir des mêmes cliniques, ont une acuité visuelle et un champ visuel normaux. Nous avons colligé des données concernant la mobilité à partir des questionnaires (aire de mobilité et chutes) et des tests (test de l’équilibre monopodal, timed Up and Go (TUG) test). Pour mesurer la fonction visuelle nous avons mesuré l’acuité visuelle, la sensibilité au contraste et le champ visuel. Nous avons également révisé le dossier médical. Pour les analyses statistiques nous avons utilisé les régressions linéaire et logistique. Critères de jugement principaux: aire de mobilité, équilibre, test timed Up and Go, chutes Résultats: Les trois maladies oculaires ont été associées à des patrons différents de limitation de la mobilité. Les patients atteints de glaucome ont eu le type le plus sévère de restriction de mobilité; ils ont une aire de mobilité plus réduite, des scores plus bas au test TUG et ils sont plus enclins à avoir un équilibre faible et à faire plus de chutes que les contrôles (p < 0.05). De plus, comparativement aux contrôles, les patients ayant de la DMLA ou la dystrophie cornéenne de Fuchs ont eu une aire de mobilité réduite (p < 0.05). Les chutes n’ont pas été associées aux maladies oculaires dans cette étude. Conclusions: Nos résultats suggèrent que les maladies oculaires, et surtout le glaucome, limitent la mobilité chez les personnes âgées. De futures études sont nécessaires pour évaluer l’impact d’une mobilité restreinte chez cette population pour pouvoir envisager des interventions ciblées qui pourraient les aider à maintenir leur indépendance le plus longtemps possible.