Strategic development of transport systems: a study of the physical constraints on planning processes

Investment in transport infrastructure can be highly sensitive to uncertainty. The scale and lead time of strategic transport programmes are such that they require continuing policy support and accurate forecasting. Delay, cost escalation and abandonment of projects often result if these conditions are not present. In Part One the physical characteristics of infrastructure are identified as a major constraint on planning processes. The extent to which strategies and techniques acknowledge these constraints is examined. A simple simulation model is developed to evaluate the effects on system development of variations in the scale and lead time of investments. In Part Two, two case studies of strategic infrastructure investment are analysed. The absence of a policy consensus for airport location was an important factor in the delayed resolution of the Third London Airport issue. In London itself, the traffic and environmental effects of major highway investment ultimately resulted in the abandonment of plans to construct urban motorways. In both cases, the infrastructure implications of alternative strategies are reviewed with reference to the problems of uncertainty. In conclusion, the scale of infrastructure investment is considered the most important of the constraints on the processes of transport planning. Adequate appraisal of such constraints may best be achieved by evaluation more closely aligned to policy objectives.

Towards requirements aware systems:run-time resolution of design-time assumptions

In earlier work we proposed the idea of requirements-aware systems that could introspect about the extent to which their goals were being satisfied at runtime. When combined with requirements monitoring and self adaptive capabilities, requirements awareness should help optimize goal satisfaction even in the presence of changing run-time context. In this paper we describe initial progress towards the realization of requirements-aware systems with REAssuRE. REAssuRE focuses on explicit representation of assumptions made at design time. When such assumptions are shown not to hold, REAssuRE can trigger system adaptations to alternative goal realization strategies.

Case-based Reasoning Method for Real-time Expert Diagnostics Systems

The method of case-based reasoning for a solution of problems of real-time diagnostics and forecasting in intelligent decision support systems (IDSS) is considered. Special attention is drawn to case library structure for real-time IDSS (RT IDSS) and algorithm of k-nearest neighbors type. This work was supported by RFBR.

Using the Simulation Modeling Methods for the Designing Real-Time Integrated Expert Systems

Certain theoretical and methodological problems of designing real-time dynamical expert systems, which belong to the class of the most complex integrated expert systems, are discussed. Primary attention is given to the problems of designing subsystems for modeling the external environment in the case where the environment is represented by complex engineering systems. A specific approach to designing simulation models for complex engineering systems is proposed and examples of the application of this approach based on the G2 (Gensym Corp.) tool system are described.

Visualising and controlling the flow in biomolecular systems at and between multiple scales:from atoms to hydrodynamics at different locations in time and space

A novel framework for modelling biomolecular systems at multiple scales in space and time simultaneously is described. The atomistic molecular dynamics representation is smoothly connected with a statistical continuum hydrodynamics description. The system behaves correctly at the limits of pure molecular dynamics (hydrodynamics) and at the intermediate regimes when the atoms move partly as atomistic particles, and at the same time follow the hydrodynamic flows. The corresponding contributions are controlled by a parameter, which is defined as an arbitrary function of space and time, thus, allowing an effective separation of the atomistic 'core' and continuum 'environment'. To fill the scale gap between the atomistic and the continuum representations our special purpose computer for molecular dynamics, MDGRAPE-4, as well as GPU-based computing were used for developing the framework. These hardware developments also include interactive molecular dynamics simulations that allow intervention of the modelling through force-feedback devices.

Approximate Model Checking of Real-Time Systems for Linear Duration Invariants

Real-time systems are usually modelled with timed automata and real-time requirements relating to the state durations of the system are often specifiable using Linear Duration Invariants, which is a decidable subclass of Duration Calculus formulas. Various algorithms have been developed to check timed automata or real-time automata for linear duration invariants, but each needs complicated preprocessing and exponential calculation. To the best of our knowledge, these algorithms have not been implemented. In this paper, we present an approximate model checking technique based on a genetic algorithm to check real-time automata for linear durration invariants in reasonable times. Genetic algorithm is a good optimization method when a problem needs massive computation and it works particularly well in our case because the fitness function which is derived from the linear duration invariant is linear. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): D.2.4, C.3.

Comments on multiple oscillatory solutions in systems with time-delay feedback

A complex Ginzburg-Landau equation subjected to local and global time-delay feedback terms is considered. In particular, multiple oscillatory solutions and their properties are studied. We present novel results regarding the disappearance of limit cycle solutions, derive analytical criteria for frequency degeneration, amplitude degeneration, frequency extrema. Furthermore, we discuss the influence of the phase shift parameter and show analytically that the stabilization of the steady state and the decay of all oscillations (amplitude death) cannot happen for global feedback only. Finally, we explain the onset of traveling wave patterns close to the regime of amplitude death.

Development of hardware in the loop real-time control techniques for hybrid power systems involving distributed demands and sustainable energy sources

The future power grid will effectively utilize renewable energy resources and distributed generation to respond to energy demand while incorporating information technology and communication infrastructure for their optimum operation. This dissertation contributes to the development of real-time techniques, for wide-area monitoring and secure real-time control and operation of hybrid power systems. ^ To handle the increased level of real-time data exchange, this dissertation develops a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system that is equipped with a state estimation scheme from the real-time data. This system is verified on a specially developed laboratory-based test bed facility, as a hardware and software platform, to emulate the actual scenarios of a real hybrid power system with the highest level of similarities and capabilities to practical utility systems. It includes phasor measurements at hundreds of measurement points on the system. These measurements were obtained from especially developed laboratory based Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) that is utilized in addition to existing commercially based PMU’s. The developed PMU was used in conjunction with the interconnected system along with the commercial PMU’s. The tested studies included a new technique for detecting the partially islanded micro grids in addition to several real-time techniques for synchronization and parameter identifications of hybrid systems. ^ Moreover, due to numerous integration of renewable energy resources through DC microgrids, this dissertation performs several practical cases for improvement of interoperability of such systems. Moreover, increased number of small and dispersed generating stations and their need to connect fast and properly into the AC grids, urged this work to explore the challenges that arise in synchronization of generators to the grid and through introduction of a Dynamic Brake system to improve the process of connecting distributed generators to the power grid.^ Real time operation and control requires data communication security. A research effort in this dissertation was developed based on Trusted Sensing Base (TSB) process for data communication security. The innovative TSB approach improves the security aspect of the power grid as a cyber-physical system. It is based on available GPS synchronization technology and provides protection against confidentiality attacks in critical power system infrastructures. ^

Residence Time Distribution (Rtd) Associated with Statistical Weighted Moments to Fit Mathematical Models Using In Industrial Systems Diagnosis

This work presents a computational, called MOMENTS, code developed to be used in process control to determine a characteristic transfer function to industrial units when radiotracer techniques were been applied to study the unit´s performance. The methodology is based on the measuring the residence time distribution function (RTD) and calculate the first and second temporal moments of the tracer data obtained by two scintillators detectors NaI positioned to register a complete tracer movement inside the unit. Non linear regression technique has been used to fit various mathematical models and a statistical test was used to select the best result to the transfer function. Using the code MOMENTS, twelve different models can be used to fit a curve and calculate technical parameters to the unit.

Discrete-time positive periodic systems with state and control constraints

The aim of this paper is to provide an efficient control design technique for discrete-time positive periodic systems. In particular, stability, positivity and periodic invariance of such systems are studied. Moreover, the concept of periodic invariance with respect to a collection of boxes is introduced and investigated with connection to stability. It is shown how such concept can be used for deriving a stabilizing state-feedback control that maintains the positivity of the closed-loop system and respects states and control signals constraints. In addition, all the proposed results can be efficiently solved in terms of linear programming.

Rational Function Interpolation of Electromagnetic Transfer Functions of High-Speed Interconnect Systems from Discrete Time-Domain and Frequency-Domain Data

We present new methodologies to generate rational function approximations of broadband electromagnetic responses of linear and passive networks of high-speed interconnects, and to construct SPICE-compatible, equivalent circuit representations of the generated rational functions. These new methodologies are driven by the desire to improve the computational efficiency of the rational function fitting process, and to ensure enhanced accuracy of the generated rational function interpolation and its equivalent circuit representation. Toward this goal, we propose two new methodologies for rational function approximation of high-speed interconnect network responses. The first one relies on the use of both time-domain and frequency-domain data, obtained either through measurement or numerical simulation, to generate a rational function representation that extrapolates the input, early-time transient response data to late-time response while at the same time providing a means to both interpolate and extrapolate the used frequency-domain data. The aforementioned hybrid methodology can be considered as a generalization of the frequency-domain rational function fitting utilizing frequency-domain response data only, and the time-domain rational function fitting utilizing transient response data only. In this context, a guideline is proposed for estimating the order of the rational function approximation from transient data. The availability of such an estimate expedites the time-domain rational function fitting process. The second approach relies on the extraction of the delay associated with causal electromagnetic responses of interconnect systems to provide for a more stable rational function process utilizing a lower-order rational function interpolation. A distinctive feature of the proposed methodology is its utilization of scattering parameters. For both methodologies, the approach of fitting the electromagnetic network matrix one element at a time is applied. It is shown that, with regard to the computational cost of the rational function fitting process, such an element-by-element rational function fitting is more advantageous than full matrix fitting for systems with a large number of ports. Despite the disadvantage that different sets of poles are used in the rational function of different elements in the network matrix, such an approach provides for improved accuracy in the fitting of network matrices of systems characterized by both strongly coupled and weakly coupled ports. Finally, in order to provide a means for enforcing passivity in the adopted element-by-element rational function fitting approach, the methodology for passivity enforcement via quadratic programming is modified appropriately for this purpose and demonstrated in the context of element-by-element rational function fitting of the admittance matrix of an electromagnetic multiport.

Dynamic-Data Driven Real-Time Identification for Electric Power Systems

Power system engineers face a double challenge: to operate electric power systems within narrow stability and security margins, and to maintain high reliability. There is an acute need to better understand the dynamic nature of power systems in order to be prepared for critical situations as they arise. Innovative measurement tools, such as phasor measurement units, can capture not only the slow variation of the voltages and currents but also the underlying oscillations in a power system. Such dynamic data accessibility provides us a strong motivation and a useful tool to explore dynamic-data driven applications in power systems. To fulfill this goal, this dissertation focuses on the following three areas: Developing accurate dynamic load models and updating variable parameters based on the measurement data, applying advanced nonlinear filtering concepts and technologies to real-time identification of power system models, and addressing computational issues by implementing the balanced truncation method. By obtaining more realistic system models, together with timely updated parameters and stochastic influence consideration, we can have an accurate portrait of the ongoing phenomena in an electrical power system. Hence we can further improve state estimation, stability analysis and real-time operation.

Recommendations for in-situ data Near Real Time Quality Control

With the construction of operational oceanography systems, the need for real-time has become more and more important. A lot of work had been done in the past, within National Data Centres (NODC) and International Oceanographic Data and Information Exchange (IODE) to standardise delayed mode quality control procedures. Concerning such quality control procedures applicable in real-time (within hours to a maximum of a week from acquisition), which means automatically, some recommendations were set up for physical parameters but mainly within projects without consolidation with other initiatives. During the past ten years the EuroGOOS community has been working on such procedures within international programs such as Argo, OceanSites or GOSUD, or within EC projects such as Mersea, MFSTEP, FerryBox, ECOOP, and MyOcean. In collaboration with the FP7 SeaDataNet project that is standardizing the delayed mode quality control procedures in NODCs, and MyOcean GMES FP7 project that is standardizing near real time quality control procedures for operational oceanography purposes, the DATA-MEQ working group decided to put together this document to summarize the recommendations for near real-time QC procedures that they judged mature enough to be advertised and recommended to EuroGOOS.

Quantifying nitrous oxide emissions from sugarcane cropping systems : Optimum sampling time and frequency

Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from soil are often measured using the manual static chamber method. Manual gas sampling is labour intensive, so a minimal sampling frequency that maintains the accuracy of measurements would be desirable. However, the high temporal (diurnal, daily and seasonal) variabilities of N2O emissions can compromise the accuracy of measurements if not addressed adequately when formulating a sampling schedule. Assessments of sampling strategies to date have focussed on relatively low emission systems with high episodicity, where a small number of the highest emission peaks can be critically important in the measurement of whole season cumulative emissions. Using year-long, automated sub-daily N2O measurements from three fertilised sugarcane fields, we undertook an evaluation of the optimum gas sampling strategies in high emission systems with relatively long emission episodes. The results indicated that sampling in the morning between 09:00–12:00, when soil temperature was generally close to the daily average, best approximated the daily mean N2O emission within 4–7% of the ‘actual’ daily emissions measured by automated sampling. Weekly sampling with biweekly sampling for one week after >20 mm of rainfall was the recommended sampling regime. It resulted in no extreme (>20%) deviations from the ‘actuals’, had a high probability of estimating the annual cumulative emissions within 10% precision, with practicable sampling numbers in comparison to other sampling regimes. This provides robust and useful guidance for manual gas sampling in sugarcane cropping systems, although further adjustments by the operators in terms of expected measurement accuracy and resource availability are encouraged. By implementing these sampling strategies together, labour inputs and errors in measured cumulative N2O emissions can be minimised. Further research is needed to quantify the spatial variability of N2O emissions within sugarcane cropping and to develop techniques for effectively addressing both spatial and temporal variabilities simultaneously.